New Tim Howard ...

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Mr fid l sticks

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Mar 21, 2018, 9:34:10 AM3/21/18
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Jeff Wood

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Mar 21, 2018, 9:47:17 AM3/21/18
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I agree 100% with Tim's statement: "Fannie and Freddie will remain in conservatorship until some triggering event—most likely an adverse ruling in one of the court cases challenging the net worth sweep—occurs to prod (or force) administrative action by Treasury."

Nothing is going to happen ... at least, nothing long-lasting and good for us shareholders ... until we win a favorable court decision. And depending on what that decision is, the results could be quite dramatic and nearly instantaneous. That is one reason I do not ever sell my basic long position (though i do trade in and out outside of that position). And I am certain that decision is going to come, eventually.

Brian Adams

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Mar 21, 2018, 12:08:15 PM3/21/18
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I like TH.

But I agree with Ed Pinto. Not on his disrespect for the rule of law. But the federal government should not be involved in affordable housing. Why in the world would they need to be? States and localities can do that.

Plus, the only reason it's even conceivable that the federal government does this is that our Constitution has been so badly twisted as to justify any federal intervention on any issue. It's ridiculous.

Ace

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Mar 21, 2018, 12:42:51 PM3/21/18
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Why in the world would states and localities need to be involved in affordable housing?  Landowner's can do that...

We have no need for most municipal services, either.  Fire departments, police, all wholly inefficient.  If the wealthy did not have to pay taxes in support of a society that should support itself, because boot-straps, they would then be free to field their own corps of emergency service providers, ie, thugs.


I am not committed to any one doctrine, so I can't be overly bothered over lunch to go tit for tat, but that's the gist of my opinion.  I am happy to learn through debate, so feel free to divine my base concerns so I may [or may not] learn to set them aside, stop worrying, and learn to love the free-market.


dcj...@gmail.com

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Mar 21, 2018, 1:43:09 PM3/21/18
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Guess we are done here then because there is no Judge on the planet that would rule against UST and/or FHFA. Way too much at stake and there most likely are carrots along with hellish unbearable sticks. Any ruling against would be tied up in appeals for another 10yrs easy.

SimSla

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Mar 21, 2018, 2:37:24 PM3/21/18
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If a judge rules in our favor the ruling needs to be implemented even if the other party appeals it. The is the reason the Gov asked the Appellate court for emergency hearing when Sweeny ruled in our favor during the discovery. 

 The TBTF stiffs realize that legislative reform is not happening hense all the rhetoric lately. I don't remember them talking so much when Gethner and company were winding down the GSEs which makes me feel optimistic. As a side note if Wallison and AEI were influencing the judges in DC hoping for legislative solution to their new found problems the lack of any progress on this front makes me hope the next verdict will not be influenced. Why i hope this will be the case because even if the courts rule again against us the TBTF stiffs can not influence Mnuchin so they loose no matter what.

Jeff Wood

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Mar 21, 2018, 3:09:55 PM3/21/18
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Brian: Not sure what you mean by federal involvement. Fannie and Freddie are private companies and should be released and returned to their shareholders. They functioned better, and with fewer problems, than any other mortgage securitizer during the financial crisis, and were the ONLY ones that didn't need a bailout. If that's what you mean by no federal involvement, I agree 100%.

If you think, as Ed PInto does, that Fannie and Freddie should be abolished, and the mortgage securitization market turned over to Goldman Sachs, AIG, Citicorp, Bank of America and Wells (Fuck the Customer) Fargo, you are flirting with disaster.

Government has a strong interest in maintaining a viable, healthy housing market. It is a huge percentage of our GDP, and screwing it up has severe consequences for the economy and plain, everyday citizens. Banksters have proved again and again they will screw all of us for a buck. Unless they are extremely, tightly regulated, and that includes the GSEs, there will be crisis after crisis. When will we ever learn?

Of course, we could go back to the savings and loan idea. That ended well, didn't it?

Brian Adams

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Mar 22, 2018, 11:09:30 AM3/22/18
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If FnF really were private, why would the banks be clamoring to dismantle them? They could just set up their own secondary mortgage business and voila. Do whatever they want.

FnF have federal charters which grant them certain privileges. I'm not savvy on the specifics, but they are favored by the government which makes it impossible for an unfavored bank to compete with them. They may be privately owned, but that is not free market capitalism. 

I don't think FnF should be abolished, I do think they should not have government backing or favorable status, which would allow GS, AIG or whoever to compete with them.

I might, however, favor some sort of Glass Steagall that creates some separation between banks entering the secondary mortgage market and investment banks like the ones you mentioned.

Where in the Constitution does it say "yo, feds, if you need to, spend some dough propping up the housing market and 30-year mortgage". It's actually not a legitimate role of government. Furthermore, even if they had an interest, it doesn't mean it should be a federal responsibility. The government has an interest in the efficient distribution of low-cost goods, but you wouldn't argue they should nationalize or interfere with Wal Mart. The best thing government can do for most categories of civic life is to stay out.

I do agree with TH that the credit risk transfers sound like a complete scam to make money for the bankers.

Jeff Wood

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Mar 22, 2018, 12:17:09 PM3/22/18
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Fannie and Freddie really are private. They have state charters, not federal charters; Delaware and Virginia, respectively. They had an implicit backing from the government, that some say gave it the ability to borrow more cheaply than other financial institutions. I don't know why that would be the case, since JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and other SIFIs have that exact same implicit guarantee. But in fact F&F are private corporations, just like the banks and other large corporations. And they should be so again, once government releases its illegal control.

There is nothing preventing private banks from competing with Fannie and Freddie, as was proven in 2004-2007, when banks and finance companies took a great deal of market share from Fannie and Freddie. It is difficult for banks to compete because the profit margins are not there, and the risks are very great, considering the vast amount of securitization Fannie and Freddie do. After all, they are guaranteeing $5 trillion in mortgages. Secured loans, to be sure, but still $5 trillion of debt responsibility on the books. I admit I am kind of guessing at this; there are others much more familiar with the market who could explain this better than I.

The Constitution does give the government the responsibility of regulating interstate commerce. Housing is a significant part of interstate commerce, in that many of the materials used in construction arrive via interstate commerce. Nonetheless, constitutional mandate or not, it is a critical role of government in helping to create and sustain a viable, efficient, prosperous economy. Government must step in to regulate commerce when times are good, because most certainly taxpayers will get stuck with bailing commerce out when times are bad, as we have seen again and again.


seysmont

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Mar 22, 2018, 12:54:50 PM3/22/18
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Tim,

Have you seen this article? Its a 10 year recap interview with Paulson, Geithner, and Bernanke. Its a little long but there are some good parts. They are still laughing about the punitive terms placed on Fannie and Freddie, along with working together to trick “the hill” into “nationalizing” FnF through conservatorship. I guess I should laugh too, its been one heck of a joke.

Its amazing to me that these guys talk so much, while the DOJ argues the exact opposite in court.

One thing I thought was odd, is they mentioned FnF were an “issue” back in 2006. If I remember correctly, in 2006, fnf were at a low point of the market share and PLS were at an all time high. The only reason I could think is: the private market was saturated, FnF didn’t want to buy low quality loans, all the sudden there was no cash to lend and liquidity started to dry up. That makes it easy to be angry with FnF, like a child blaming their parents for their own bad behavior. Too bad for us, congress fell for it, and gave them a bazooka to fix their problems.

https://features.marketplace.org/bernanke-paulson-geithner/

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  1. I’ve now had a chance to read this interview, and it does contain some interesting (and in some cases revealing) material. The reference to 2006, though, isn’t connected to PLS or anything specific Fannie or Freddie were doing. Paulson is misremembering what was going on then when he says, “And we started working on reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the fall of 2006. We had plans to go to Congress and get authorities when we could, but we knew that the worst thing we could do would be to go to Congress and scream, ‘We have a national emergency, and if we don’t get these, the whole system was going to collapse, this could be a catastrophe,’ and then not get them.” Treasury had been trying in earnest, without success, to “reform” (i.e., get control of) Fannie and Freddie since 2003, and 2006 was just another run at that. In 2006, nobody in the administration had any inkling of what eventually would happen from the fall of 2007 through the winter of 2008.

    But there is another statement Paulson made in the interview that struck me, when he was talking about the run on Lehman Brothers that happened right after he bullied Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship (and I use the word “bullied” advisedly—Paulson admits he did that in his book, “On the Brink”). He said, “I mean, what a strong statement, coming in, nationalizing Fannie and Freddie, mortgages are ground zero of, you know, the crisis, government stands behind it, help all the financial institutions. The market instead looked at it and said, ‘Holy cow, if Fannie or Freddie has got all those bad mortgages, just think how bad Lehman might be.’ And so it, that’s just what happens with these things sometimes, the things you’re doing that you think are going to knock it out, you just even accelerate it.”

    What Paulson either doesn’t recognize, has in retrospect convinced himself isn’t true, or deliberately is not being candid about—and I don’t know which of the three it is—is that his (and other officials in the Bush administration’s) decision to use the financial crisis as cover for accomplishing their long-held objective of getting Fannie and Freddie out of the private sector and under government control made the 2008 crisis much worse than it would have been otherwise. Fannie and Freddie DIDN’T have “all those bad mortgages,” and a lot of people at Treasury knew it.

    At the time Fannie and Freddie were forced into conservatorship, it had been almost four years since I had spoken or corresponded with any of the investors or security analysts I’d known well when I was Fannie’s CFO (my lawyers in the “accounting scandal” litigation had advised me not to). After the conservatorship, however, I got emails from a number of them. They all were outraged at the takeovers, because—as people very familiar with the companies’ financial conditions and prospects—they knew they hadn’t been in any imminent danger, and didn’t need to be “rescued”. I clearly remember one senior executive of a large mutual fund telling me he had just spoken with Freddie’s CFO, who told him that Treasury’s public story about Morgan Stanley having done a study of Fannie and Freddie’s loan portfolios and finding huge problems in them was a lie. He said to the the mutual fund executive, “We just gave them our data, and they haven’t even sent it to Bangalore [Morgan Stanley apparently outsourced some of their analytics] yet.”

    Paulson saying, “that’s just what happens with these things sometimes” is at best disingenuous. HE (and his staff at Treasury) were the ones who made the conscious decision to publicly exaggerate the mortgage losses at the two companies who had the highest quality books of any sources of mortgage finance at the time, as justification for the takeovers that achieved an ideological and competitive policy objective. It should have come as no surprise to them or anyone else who knew what was going on that investors in an already skittish market would have been be thrown into an uncontrollable panic by that action.

    Even in a self-congratulatory ten-year retrospective, with selective memory at work, that unacknowledged fact cannot be whitewashed.

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Crownjewels

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Mar 22, 2018, 3:41:12 PM3/22/18
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I just was contacted by Mr. F and the sainted Maloni, asking me to weigh in on this exchange.

 

(The latter was sitting on his commode, waiting for DJT to call and invite him to head the FHFA. I explained that not only could he get leg cramps, circulatory issues, and a stroke for doing that for long periods, you get the call from the POTUS when he is going to fire you!)

 

Most of my answers won't satisfy because they raise other questions, but....

 

Yes F&F have state incorporating charters, in this instance from Delaware and Virginia--as all shareholder owned corporation do, which the GSEs once exclusively were--but they operate under "federal rules," i.e. their statutory federal business charters, which is why Congress played and plays such a big part of their lives and their regulation is in DC not in state capitals. (Think "national banks," which have federal business charters.)

 

Jeff, I have people very close to me who lobbied for more than 20 years that "Fannie and Freddie are private," using any number of indicia of those facts, including the congressional discussion creating Fannie in 1970 (and Freddie as its clone 9 years later), the argumen  "federal agencies aren't traded on the New York stock exchange," for years F&F were two of the largest federal tax payers, and GSE mortgage activity doesn't show up on the federal budget., etc. etc.

 

Few people--including a lot of judges since the original Lamberth decision--buy those arguments.

 

Instead, since the 2004 phony charge of "securities fraud" leveled at Fannie execs by FHFA's predecessor, OFHEO, they point to the GSEs "federal history, Fannie's as a creature of the Roosevelt depression years, "federal" in their business names, the locations of their corporate headquarters, their debt costs historically higher than Treasury’s but lower than other large financial institutions.

 

Where you are stone cold correct--and what is even more aggravating--banks, especially the large ones, have a bushel of statutory/regulatory federal benefits/subsidies which far outweigh what the GSEs had and have.

 

Best but not only example is Federal Deposit Insurance that allows banks to pay bubkis for their working capital (what are you earning on your checking or savings accounts?), which is where get most of the money to provide personal and commercial loans.

 

Soft lending windows at Fed and Treasury, protected markets, think "non-conforming mortgages" that the GSEs can't touch., etc. etc.  But, the banks successful have sold the story that they are "private" and the GSEs are federal or public and nobody is tearing down that meme.

 

 

But, as history has shown, banks can’t handle the interest rate risk on fixed rate loans, in part given their great reliance on insured deposits. Interest rates could go up when they are holding 15 and 30 year fixed rate loans on their books and to compete for funds they will have to match rates that could go to other assets.

 

Go back and look at the inflation driven late i970’s and early 80’s, the "hot money" years, when banks lost huge amounts of deposits, again their working capital, to competitors’ CDs paying 14%, etc.

 

The banks couldn’t manage that asset-liability gap and still can't hedge the possibility.

 

So, today, the banks either securitize those mortagge loans through the GSEs or premium price and hold them on their own books and pray for rate stability.

 

Just like our recent court experiences, until someone of stature seeks to publicly correct all of the myths/lies about the GSEs, the "bad guys"--with impunity can lie and distort and easily get away with it.

Jeff Wood

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Mar 22, 2018, 4:09:42 PM3/22/18
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Thanks CJ

Crownjewels

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Mar 22, 2018, 5:21:17 PM3/22/18
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Wish I was wrong.

bryndon....@gmail.com

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Mar 23, 2018, 3:35:19 PM3/23/18
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Mr. Fiddlesticks, this is a great list.  Maybe we could get your post pinned to the top of this site.

Cheers,
Bryndon

Mr fid l sticks

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Mar 23, 2018, 4:54:36 PM3/23/18
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Thanks Bryndon ... there are so many good articles out there  I have a pretty large cache of these  (as I assume most of us do !) 
anyway I thought these did compliment the idea of the TBTF banks and such doing what ever they want ...

one more for old times sake ....
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