Evidence that turnout doesn't matter very much

[Clay Shentrup]

http://www.nber.org/papers/w22221

We study a unique quasi-experiment in Austria, where compulsory voting laws are changed across Austria’s nine states at different times. Analyzing state and national elections from 1949-2010, we show that compulsory voting laws with weakly enforced fines increase turnout by roughly 10 percentage points. However, we find no evidence that this change in turnout affected government spending patterns (in levels or composition) or electoral outcomes. Individual-level data on turnout and political preferences suggest these results occur because individuals swayed to vote due to compulsory voting are more likely to be non-partisan, have low interest in politics, and be uninformed. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/05/the-absurdity-of-mandatory-voting.html#sthash.nOzKZ18Q.dpuf

[Rob Wilson]

I am sympathetic to mandatory sign-ins at the polls, but I definitely don't think there should be mandatory voting.  Voters should also be given an "I don't want to vote in this race" option and be encouraged to use it for races that they have no information about.  Who the hell knows who is more qualified to be a judge or a clerk?

[Warren D Smith]

On 5/13/16, Rob Wilson <blahf...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I am sympathetic to mandatory sign-ins at the polls, but I definitely don't
>
> think there should be mandatory voting. Voters should also be given an "I
> don't want to vote in this race" option and be encouraged to use it for
> races that they have no information about. Who the hell knows who is more
> qualified to be a judge or a clerk?

--those who have experience in that judge's courtroom, which
is a very small fraction of all voters. The problem is they
are heavily outweighed by morons who vote about that judge
based on "how his name sounds" and suchlike.
That is one reason I want score voting to be done with
a "no score" capability. It can reduce that problem.
Also, I think such laws as "criminals are not allowed to vote"
are an outrage. It is important that voters be a cross section
of all society, trying to improve utility for all, getting feedback from all.
Prisoners being denied the vote is undoubtedly a large part of the reason that
the USA now has privatized for-profit slavery-prisons totally uninterested
in rehabilitation and totally interested in recidivism, that imprison
a larger fraction of the population than any other country. The USA's
prison and justice systems are temendous failures.
Similarly, why are Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and Flint Michigan
three of the most fucked-up places in the USA? Because
their citizens are denied the vote. (Well, they are allowed to vote
on some stuff. But most of, and/or crucial parts of,
the power ruling over them is chosen by voters not
located in PR or DC, and Flint's democracy was terminated by
Michigan's governor Snyder who installed a dictator of his choosing.)
And over time, cumulatively, that lack of representation
evidently hurts places, big time.

[Warren D Smith]

> Similarly, why are Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and Flint Michigan
> three of the most fucked-up places in the USA? Because
> their citizens are denied the vote. (Well, they are allowed to vote
> on some stuff. But most of, and/or crucial parts of,
> the power ruling over them is chosen by voters not
> located in PR or DC, and Flint's democracy was terminated by
> Michigan's governor Snyder who installed a dictator of his choosing.)
> And over time, cumulatively, that lack of representation
> evidently hurts places, big time.

--another example is New York City's schools system. which
is not governed by the city. It is controlled
by statewide politicians in Albany, 150 mi away, who are elected
by people 400 mi away. The resulting very-impaired feedback
is undoubtably a goodly part of why NY City's schools are continually
complained about. This is lack of ability to vote on something
that matters -- and again, over time, the cumulative effect of that is bad.


--
Warren D. Smith
http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking
"endorse" as 1st step)