brexit as proof of bad voting system?

[Warren D Smith]

The UK's parliament was massively in favor of "remain" (with
the leaders of the top 3 parties all with that stance) but
the UK in the referendum voted for brexit by 52-48.

The lesson of that huge contrast is: that the plurality-based
voting system which elected that
parliament, was hugely distortionary.
It evidently elected a parliament massively out of touch with
and disconnected to what the UK public wanted.

Ironically, this may have actually CAUSED brexit.
Specifically, the unrepresented-feeling voters -- who felt that
way because they were unrepresented! -- may have
felt extra-motivated to vote for brexit. If the UK parliament had
been less distorted, the lack of that extra motivation might have been enough
to swing the outcome to "remain."
(This of course is just me speculating.)

--
Warren D. Smith
http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking
"endorse" as 1st step)

[Toby Pereira]

I think you could be right. I think a lot of people probably used their vote as an anti-establishment statement. Maybe not most of them, but when it's 52-48, it only needs to be a small percentage to swing it.

[Warren D Smith]

On 6/26/16, 'Toby Pereira' via The Center for Election Science

<electio...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
> I think you could be right. I think a lot of people probably used their
> vote as an anti-establishment statement. Maybe not most of them, but when
> it's 52-48, it only needs to be a small percentage to swing it.

--is there any way to prove this hypothesis or put it on a more solid footing?
E.g. were there, er, exit polls?

[Warren D Smith]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/23/brexit-exit-polls-dont-hold-your-breath/

says exit polls are illegal in the UK -- well, legal, but you aren't
allowed to publish their findings until after official results
announced. Also claims there were secret private exit polls conducted
by financial sharpies looking to get an edge.

Official counts summarized here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/

[Warren D Smith]

The older the voter, the more pro-brexit (and older voters had greater turnout):

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/15372/production/_90089868_eu_ref_uk_regions_leave_remain_gra624_by_age.png

Also: the less-educated the voter, the more pro-brexit...
"Voters with university degrees overwhelmingly backed remain."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/young-remain-voters-came-out-in-force-but-were-outgunned
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis

"Some 58% of people in professional and higher management jobs wanted
to remain compared with only 27% of people in unskilled jobs. Not
surprisingly, high-status individuals with marketable skills favour UK
membership of the EU, whereas people who lack these skills and are
vulnerable in the labour market are opposed."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-why-did-old-people-vote-leave-young-voters-remain-eu-referendum-a7103996.html

Here is a quote from the Independent's piece (written by political
science professors...)
that seems to support my hypothesis:
"Voters mix up domestic politics with those of the European Union. The
relative unpopularity of national governments led to the rejection of
the Maastricht Treaty in Denmark and the near-rejection of it in
France. This contrasted with the vote in Ireland, which had a much
more popular government at the time, and where the referendum passed
easily.
It seems attitudes to EU integration are closely tied to domestic
issues. So the austerity pursued by the British government after the
2010 general election has implications for the referendum vote.
Since 2010 the government has systematically reduced funding for
deprived areas of Britain. It is a safe bet that when the government
started cutting the budgets for deprived communities in the North of
England, it did not realise the decision would come back to bite them
in the form of a large vote to leave the European Union."

Another piece in the Independent contains this quote:
"new research by the labour market economists Brian Bell and Stephen
Machin, seen by The Independent, suggests the Leave vote tended to be
bigger in areas of the country where wage growth has been weakest
since 1997. This would seem to support the popular theory that this
was essentially a giant protest vote against the political class by
people who feel economically 'left behind' in modern Britain."

...well... "protest votes" don't really make sense...

So... I'll say my theory about brexit is "unproven, but plausible."