Trump's next move?

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Warren D Smith

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Jul 18, 2016, 6:00:19 PM7/18/16
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Trump is the underdog versus Hilary Clinton (said most polls,
although one recent poll claimed a tie).

He has however a simple strategy to win the election, enabled
by today's election laws and voting system:
Make large anonymous $ contributions to the Green Party's Jill Stein.
Dollars spent in this way will provide considerably more back per buck,
than dollars spent on the more-usual sort of TV ads.

--
Warren D. Smith
http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking
"endorse" as 1st step)

Kevin Baas

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Jul 18, 2016, 8:30:57 PM7/18/16
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Frankly when it comes to running campaigns in America, especially when it comes to people like Trump, the whole thing is a black box to me.

In computer science, there's a rule: GIGO, which stands for "garbage in, garbage out". From what I've seen in American elections, they don't follow that rule. You violate that rule and all bets are off.

In this election we don't have garbage in. We have a very reliable signal that Trump is a bigoted psychotic megalomaniac who doesn't no crap about anything politics. It seems to me, you can withhold judgement on the populace for only so long before you have to acknowledge "maybe they're reading that signal loud and clear, and they're all about it."

In which case no, the money would be better spent on Trump saying crazy stupid ignorant shit and that being broadcasted across the country. Hell, it's been an effective strategy so far.

Warren D Smith

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Jul 18, 2016, 9:48:23 PM7/18/16
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well, no. KB, you've missed the story.

Trump so far has taken advantage of plurality voting "vote splitting & cloning"
flaws to win the GOP nomination. He understod that just fine, and
it was obvious to me he was trying to do it. He would not have won with
approval or score voting, shown by poll data.
So the problem is not the American populace, or media; it
is the voting system.

Now, in a 2-canddt race, that will not work. So Trump needs to change
his strategy, or
do something new. It however WILL work in a 3-way race, and Trump has
both the money
and the unconventional behavior & ruthlessness and willingness to exploit
the plurality system's flaws once again, by donating $ to Jill Stein.

Clear now?

Steve Cobb

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Jul 19, 2016, 8:06:57 AM7/19/16
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People haven't forgotten the 2000 election.

Warren D Smith

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Jul 19, 2016, 11:26:50 AM7/19/16
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Trump can probably afford to multiply Stein's funding by a factor 10 without
feeling any pain, and if she takes a few percent from Clinton
that'd be a big edge for Trump.
Many people honestly prefer Stein>Clinton.

Warren D Smith

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Jul 19, 2016, 11:34:07 AM7/19/16
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Here is an example, recent endorsement of Stein
(transcript of radio/TV interview with "brother" Cornel West, an eccentric
professor formerly at Princeton & Harvard, but now Union Theological Seminary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornel_West ):

TRANSCRIPT
Cornel West is heading to Philadelphia next, where he will serve on
the Democratic Platform Drafting Committee, but he has announced he
won’t be backing the party’s presumptive nominee. West talks about why
he is backing the Green Party’s Jill Stein over Hillary Clinton.

AMY GOODMAN: You are endorsing Dr. Jill Stein. You were a surrogate
for Bernie Sanders. You spoke all over the country for him.

CORNEL WEST: Yes, yes, yes.

AMY GOODMAN: What made you decide to support the Green Party
presidential candidate as opposed to Hillary Clinton?

CORNEL WEST: Well, I’ve never been tied to one party or one candidate
or even one institution. And that’s true even with one church as a
Christian. I’m committed to truth and justice. And Brother Bernie, no
doubt, was the standard-bearer for truth and justice during the
primary at a national level, at a highly visible level. Once he
endorsed Hillary Clinton, who, for me, is a neoliberal disaster, it
was clear—

AMY GOODMAN: What do mean by that?

CORNEL WEST: A neoliberal disaster is one who generates a mass
incarceration regime, who deregulates banks and markets, who promotes
chaos of regime change in Libya, supports military coups in Honduras,
undermines some of the magnificent efforts in Haiti of working people,
and so forth. That’s the record of Hillary Clinton. So there was no
way—when my dear brother, who I love very deeply, Bernie Sanders said
she will make an outstanding president, I said, "Oh, I disagree with
my brother. I think she’ll—I don’t think she’ll make an outstanding
president at all." She’s a militarist. She’s a hawk. She could take us
into war with Russia. She could take us into war with Iran. So, I
mean, I think she’s—she’s dangerous in terms of her neoliberal
ideology—not as a woman, because I’m supporting, of course, my dear
sister Jill Stein.

I think after a magnificent campaign of Bernie Sanders, the next step
is a green step. The next step is a progressive step. And when you’re
calling for reparations, you’re calling for the release of prisoners
who have been historically unfairly treated, especially tied to
nonviolent crimes, and then saying they should vote and that vote
should never be taken away, when you’re calling—putting people and
planet and peace before profits, Sister Jill Stein, for me, is
somebody that’s worth fighting for. And she’s not a spoiler. You know,
a lot of people use that term "spoiler." If Hillary Clinton can’t make
the case to progressives, she doesn’t deserve our vote.

Now, Trump is a neofascist in the making. There’s no doubt about that.

AMY GOODMAN: Donald Trump.

CORNEL WEST: Yeah. Oh, there’s no doubt about that. But the thing is,
is that you can’t just be a non-Trump and deserve one’s vote. If
Hillary Clinton wants the vote of progressives, she better be real
about it. But I don’t think she has the capacity to be real about it.
She’s so tied to Wall Street. She’s so tied to the corporate elite.

AMY GOODMAN: Why do you say he’s a neofascist, Donald Trump, the—

CORNEL WEST: Because neofascism in the United States takes the form of
big money, big banks, big corporations, tied to xenophobic
scapegoating of the vulnerable, like Mexicans and Muslims and women
and black folk, and militaristic policies abroad, with strongman,
charismatic, autocratic personality, and that’s what Donald Trump is.

And we should know. This is why I salute you, my dear sister.
Corporate media has played a fundamental role in the making of Donald
Trump—$2 billion free time. They made big profits. They put their
profits ahead of the public interest. They covered every speech, every
word in Twitter for the last 14 months, just to make big money. Even
this convention, even this—they can’t wait. They’re salivating for the
profits. And what do they do? They throw out this mediocre,
dumbed-down xenophobic-speaking brother, who—I mean, he’s a human
being like anybody else, so, I mean, you know, he’s made in the image
of God, in terms of my own Christian faith and so forth, but he’s a
neofascist in the making. And corporate media is going to have to
acknowledge the tremendous responsibility they have of making sure
Donald Trump was center stage. If Bernie Sanders had received one-half
of that kind of attention, we’d be in a very different place. If they
would put more stress on what Jill Stein is saying, the unbelievable
fairness, subtlety of analysis, moral passion of Sister Jill—corporate
media won’t touch her with a 10-foot pole, for the most part. But it’s
changing. It’s going to change.

AMY GOODMAN: What does Dr. Jill Stein represent? What—why are you
drawn to the Green Party platform, now that Bernie Sanders has
conceded?

CORNEL WEST: Well, one, in the language of Coltrane, she’s a major
force for good, accenting the role of poor and working people being
center stage. She’s green in terms of trying to save the planet in the
face of corporate greed. She’s fundamentally concerned with issues of
racial justice, legacies of white supremacy as well as male supremacy.
She’s concerned about empowering working people. She opposes TPP,
trying to make sure we don’t have the corporate reshaping of the world
economy—the kind of policies, of course, Democratic Party has
supported, President Obama has supported. It’s hard to find somebody
at the national level who provides a certain kind of hope, given the
unbelievable spiritual decline and moral decay. And by spiritual
decline and moral decay, I mean greed and indifference and contempt in
the driver seat among our elites vis-à-vis all working people and poor
people. It’s just sad to see so many fellow working people and fellow
citizens supporting a pseudo-populist and neofascist like Donald
Trump. They’re in pain. The pain is very real, but they’re moving in a
right-wing direction.

AMY GOODMAN: What happened with the Democratic platform? You were one
of the people on the committee. A lot of people don’t know how this
stuff is made, how the sausage is made. Explain what happened. What
did you win? What did you lose?

CORNEL WEST: Well, I was blessed to be put on the committee by Brother
Bernie Sanders. We had wonderful deliberations. Brother Elijah
Cummings was very fair. He was the chairperson. But we lost TPP. We
lost Medicare for all. We lost, of course, Israeli occupation and
Israeli settlements included within the platform, keeping track while
precious Palestinian brothers and sisters—

AMY GOODMAN: What about them? You lost—what do you mean, you lost them?

CORNEL WEST: We lost them, in that we made the case, and we lost the vote.

AMY GOODMAN: What were you looking for?

CORNEL WEST: We were looking to include them within the platform, so
at least it was on paper. Now, of course, putting it on paper is
different than putting it in practice. A declaration is different from
the execution. But we lost over and over again, because the Clinton
people lined up and voted against it. That’s why I, of course,
abstained, initially, at the move from writing the draft, and then we
took it to the platform committee in Orlando. I was also a member of
the platform committee. And I had to abstain again, because—even
though they didn’t allow for abstention; it was just no or yes. But
there’s no way, based on moral grounds, those based on my own moral
conscience, that I could support that platform.

And once my dear brother moved into his endorsement, his strong
endorsement of the neoliberal disaster that Sister Hillary represents,
there was no way that I could stay with Bernie Sanders any longer, had
to break with the two-party system. The duopoly has to come to an end.
I was hoping we could bring the neoliberal era to a close, because a
year ago, populist, Bernie Sanders; neofascist with Trump, or
neoliberalism limps on with Hillary Clinton. Right now the Democratic
Party still run by big corporations, big lobbyists and so forth, from
AIPAC to a host of other lobbyists of big money, and it looks like
they want to hold on for dear life. And it’s a sad thing to see,
because the country is having a nervous breakdown. And you just hope
that there can be enough people with compassion and courage to hold
onto justice, keep the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. and Rabbi
Abraham Joshua Heschel and Edward Said and Dorothy Day alive.

AMY GOODMAN: Finally, when you look at what Donald Trump is calling
for—the wall on the border with Mexico, banning Muslims from coming
in—barring Muslims from coming into the country, hesitating to disavow
the support of the white supremacist David Duke and other issues—for
those who say it’s only Hillary Clinton who could defeat that, what is
your response?

CORNEL WEST: My response is, and when you actually look at the mass
incarceration policies, when you actually look at the reinforcement of
the new Jim Crow and the segregation of our educational systems and so
forth, that occurred under Democrats. It would persist under Hillary
Clinton. What Donald Trump talks about in the abstract has actually
been concretely enacted under neoliberal regimes of the Democratic
Party.

Same would be true in terms of foreign policy. Foreign policy, for me,
is very, very important in terms of the no-fly zones in Syria that can
lead toward war, the kind of encirclement of Russia. I mean, can you
imagine Russian troops in Mexico and Canada? What would the U.S.
response be? Oh, my god. Well, that’s very much what NATO troops are
vis-à-vis Russia. Now, we know Russia is run by autocratic Putin, but
that kind of provocation for Russia, who has nuclear arms, is the kind
of thing that Hillary Clinton, of course, supported. And her
connection to the Robert Kagans and Henry Kissingers, of course, are
just frightening in regard to militaristic orientations.

And so, this idea that somehow we’ve got to opt for a neoliberal
disaster as the only option vis-à-vis the neofascist catastrophe, as a
blues man, I appreciate you playing that blues, said I can deal with
catastrophe, not by panicking and being driven by fear, but I can look
the catastrophe in the face and still tell the truth and still go down
swinging with a smile and, most importantly, love, Coltrane’s love—and
for me, Jesus’s love—at the center of how we proceed.

AMY GOODMAN: We’re going to leave it there, but we’ll be talking to
you through the week, Dr. Cornel West, professor at Union Theological
Seminary. He endorsed Bernie Sanders for president last summer and was
appointed by Sanders to serve on the Democratic platform committee,
author of a number of books, most recently Black Prophetic Fire, now
is endorsing Dr. Jill Stein, Green Party presidential candidate.

Ted Stern

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Jul 20, 2016, 1:35:06 PM7/20/16
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If Trump (or others) support Jill Stein, a case could also be made that some wealthy donor might want to prevent a Trump victory by supporting Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate.

We haven't done so many examples with the double spoiler problem -- it might be interesting to look at that.

Ted

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Kevin Baas

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Jul 20, 2016, 8:49:08 PM7/20/16
to The Center for Election Science
I guess I don't think trump is thy smart. While a small amount of $ in support of Jill could probably do wonders per $, due to the diets-past the post system we have, he is definitely NOT a numbers guy.

In theory, sure, it works -- it's simple.

In practice - dude's a lunatic, he just is not that lucid.

Kevin Baas

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Jul 20, 2016, 8:49:59 PM7/20/16
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Warren D Smith

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Jul 20, 2016, 10:17:22 PM7/20/16
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On 7/20/16, Kevin Baas <happy...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I guess I don't think trump is thy smart. While a small amount of $ in
> support of Jill could probably do wonders per $, due to the diets-past the
> post system we have, he is definitely NOT a numbers guy.

--you mean, like, a billionaire into sophisticated tax dodges and
financial juggling his whole life, is "not a numbers guy." Ah. I see.


> In theory, sure, it works -- it's simple.
>
> In practice - dude's a lunatic, he just is not that lucid.

--Trump gamed the plurality system to win the nomination.
Virtually his every move that I could see was aimed directly
at that goal. His opponents and the media did not seem to see it.
But I saw it, and it sure looks like Trump saw it.

Or, maybe he just made all the right moves, aimed directly at that
goal, by pure accident.
Golly. I wonder which?

Clay Shentrup

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Jul 20, 2016, 11:47:15 PM7/20/16
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I agree with Warren 100%.

Clay Shentrup

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Jul 21, 2016, 5:37:08 PM7/21/16
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Here's the guy who ghost wrote Trump's The Art of the Deal.

Warren D Smith

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Jul 22, 2016, 8:24:55 AM7/22/16
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By an amazing(?) coincidence, Jill Stein just sent me a spam.
It is titled "Almost unbelievable!" and begins

"Just $42,000 To Go to Reach $500,000 in Donations, Matched 1:1 to
Total $1Million
I wanted you to hear it from me first: we are within $42,000 of
reaching our goal of raising $500,000 in donations eligible for 1:1
federal matching funds--for a total of $1 million!
We started out with the goal of raising that $500,000 in matchable
funds in 25 days.
Looks like we’ll do it in far less time--we can top $500,000 today, if
everyone pitches in!"

The question for Trump-watchers is: how much unbelievability is too much?
You quite likely will never know it for sure, if Trump does what I
suspect he will -
or at least, he will try to stop you from knowing until at least after
the election is over.

Kevin Baas

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Jul 22, 2016, 7:25:32 PM7/22/16
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His accountants do his taxes.

As far as money management ability of him personally, he's went bankrupt four times and is currently in a serious amount of debt.

That's four - arguably five - times more than me.

Clearly he sucks balls with money.

Warren D Smith

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Jul 23, 2016, 7:04:22 AM7/23/16
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On 7/22/16, Kevin Baas <happy...@gmail.com> wrote:
> His accountants do his taxes.

--actually, in a court case in which Trump's taxes were challenged,
the paid preparer whose signature was on the taxes had to testify, and
his testimony under oath was that (a) yes, that was his signature,
and (b) no, he had not prepared those taxes...

Clay Shentrup

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Jul 24, 2016, 12:57:37 AM7/24/16
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Clay Shentrup

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Jul 28, 2016, 12:27:15 AM7/28/16
to The Center for Election Science
Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would be happy if people voted for Green Party candidate Jill Stein for president because it would draw votes away from Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

During a rally in Toledo, Ohio, Trump appeared to dismiss candidates outside of the two major parties.

“I think a vote for Stein would be good — that’s the Green Party,” he said. “Because I figure anyone voting for Stein is gonna be for Hillary. So I think vote for Stein is fine.”

He added that he doesn’t “quite get” the appeal of the “other guy,” apparently referring to Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson.

In the aftermath of Clinton's victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Democratic presidential primary, many Sanders supporters have called for his backers to support Stein in the November general election instead of Clinton.




Clinton backers have argued that such a move amounts to a vote for Trump. They point to the 2000 presidential election, when Democrat Al Gore lost to Republican George W. Bush in a very close race, which was at least partially because Gore lost many liberal votes to Ralph Nader.

Warren D Smith

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Jul 28, 2016, 8:44:47 AM7/28/16
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Stein just sent me another spam. This one claimed that
in order to get on ballot in Pennsylvania, Stein had to overcome unfair ballot
access laws by hiring a lawyer to win a court case. PA law wanted her to
get signatures amounting to 2% of the entire voting population. This
requirement
is absurd. She won the case but it cost her $50,000 in lawyers. This
is yet another example of how unfair the ballot access laws in USA
are; Trump & Clinton are not going to have to pay one cent nor collect
any signatures at all to get on that ballot.

But basically, you can get on ballots if you have enough money.

Meanwhile near the Dem.Party convention I see that are distributing
T-shirts that read
"Clinton 2016. Sane and qualified." Which basically was what M.Bloomberg said
about HC in his speech at same convention, the point being that in his
view, Trump isn't,
and therefore, HIllary is clearly the lesser evil, or as he put it
"the right choice at this
particular moment." Is she flawless? "No, nobody is," but at this
moment given the
USA 2-party domination and the fact Trump is her opponent, and Trump
is both unqualified (never held any office, highly questionable
performance as business tycoon, leaving trail of bankruptcies and over
1500 lawsuits behind him)
and with insane "reality TV show" cartoonlike proposals, not real proposals,
she is the right choice. (Sample line: "Hillary understands that this
is not a reality TV show; this is reality.") That was Bloomberg's
endorsement of HC in a nutshell. Not exactly inspiring, but that's
how it was.
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