"How Democracies Die" new book

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Warren D Smith

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Mar 13, 2018, 4:02:39 PM3/13/18
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New high-selling book
"How Democracies Die"
by (Harvard professors)
Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt.

I have not seen or read it, but this is a topic I've long wanted to see studied.
Will somebody review?


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Warren D. Smith
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Phil Uhrich

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Mar 15, 2018, 1:34:05 PM3/15/18
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I can't speak specifically about that book but it seems like a reaction to Trump more than anything else. Peter Turchin, A UConn Prof, has been developing a new field of study he calls Cliodynamics which seeks to mathematically model societal collapse throughout history and use it to make predictions. He's been on it since at least 2008 and has several articles and books on the subject. His model expects turmoil to peak in the 2020's. Obviously I can't say anything definitively about the accuracy but I assume you would share my bias toward the use of quantitative data over conjecture.
http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/

Warren D Smith

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Mar 15, 2018, 1:41:55 PM3/15/18
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well, I have not seen the book, but what I WANT is a book
doing a historical compilation of the causes of death (& autopsy)
of every democracy they can find, and conclusions from that.

Clay Shentrup

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Mar 18, 2018, 12:02:03 AM3/18/18
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Have you read Fujiyama's "Political Order and Political Decay"?

Jack Santucci

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Mar 18, 2018, 12:31:22 AM3/18/18
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Fukuyama was a student of Huntington at Harvard. For whatever it’s worth, I’d read the new Fukuyama book with H’s Political Order in Changing Societies. A classic.

The whole thing boils down to stability through patronage.

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> On Mar 18, 2018, at 00:02, Clay Shentrup <cshe...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Have you read Fujiyama's "Political Order and Political Decay"?
>
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Phil Uhrich

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Mar 18, 2018, 10:37:07 AM3/18/18
to The Center for Election Science
lol cause his prediction about the end of history was spot on. smh.

Not saying I buy this but I thought it was interesting when I stumbled on it the other day. The Doomsday Argument using Bayes to estimate the end of the species. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument

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