Presidential Elections in Austria
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Markus Schulze
Mar 25, 2016, 6:01:18 PM3/25/16
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Hallo,
Austria elects a new President. The current President
(Heinz Fischer) cannot run for re-election because he
already served two consecutive terms. The President
is elected directly. Top-two runoff is used. The first
round will be on 24 April 2016. The second round will
be on 22 May 2016. There are six candidates.
The opinion polls say that the most right-wing candidate
(Norbert Hofer from the "Freedom Party of Austria")
and the most left-wing candidate (Alexander van der
Bellen from the "Green Party of Austria") will make it
to the second round. This is a good example for the
center-squeezing effect of traditional runoff elections.
Markus Schulze
Austria elects a new President. The current President
(Heinz Fischer) cannot run for re-election because he
already served two consecutive terms. The President
is elected directly. Top-two runoff is used. The first
round will be on 24 April 2016. The second round will
be on 22 May 2016. There are six candidates.
The opinion polls say that the most right-wing candidate
(Norbert Hofer from the "Freedom Party of Austria")
and the most left-wing candidate (Alexander van der
Bellen from the "Green Party of Austria") will make it
to the second round. This is a good example for the
center-squeezing effect of traditional runoff elections.
Markus Schulze
Aaron Hamlin
Mar 31, 2016, 8:54:39 PM3/31/16
to The Center for Election Science
Awesome find, Markus!
Clay Shentrup
Apr 24, 2016, 3:11:07 PM4/24/16
to The Center for Election Science
Attaching Markus's latest reply to the original thread:
Hallo,
as predicted, the most right-wing candidate and the
most left-wing candidate made it to the second round.
Here is the result of the first round (24 April 2016):
Norbert Hofer (Freedom Party): 35.4%
Alexander van der Bellen (Green Party): 21.3%
Irmgard Griss (independent): 19.0%
Andreas Khol (People's Party): 11.2%
Rudolf Hundstorfer (Social Democratic Party): 10.9%
Richard Lugner (independent): 2.3%
The second round will be held on 22 May 2016 between
Hofer and van der Bellen. This is a good example for
as predicted, the most right-wing candidate and the
most left-wing candidate made it to the second round.
Here is the result of the first round (24 April 2016):
Norbert Hofer (Freedom Party): 35.4%
Alexander van der Bellen (Green Party): 21.3%
Irmgard Griss (independent): 19.0%
Andreas Khol (People's Party): 11.2%
Rudolf Hundstorfer (Social Democratic Party): 10.9%
Richard Lugner (independent): 2.3%
The second round will be held on 22 May 2016 between
Hofer and van der Bellen. This is a good example for
Warren D Smith
May 23, 2016, 11:50:33 PM5/23/16
to electio...@googlegroups.com
Breitbart laments close loss of neo-Nazi presidential candidate in Austria
AmericaBlog 5/23/16 11:43am by Jon Green
Voters in Austria narrowly elected Green Party candidate Alexander van
der Bellen after mail-in ballots pushed him over the top to a narrow
50.2 – 49.8 victory.
van der Bellen’s opponent, Norbert Hofer, held a narrow lead after
in-person ballots were counted in an instant runoff on Sunday.
The fact that Hofer held any lead at all was alarming, given that he
leads the far-right Freedom Party. Hofer had run on an anti-European
Union (and, by extension, pro-Putin) platform, making immigration
restrictions from Muslim-majority countries one of his signature
issues. He has also called for repatriating the Italian territory of
South Tyrol, which used to be part of the Austro-Hungarian empire.
Nationalist calls for the repatriation of land to Austria squares with
the Freedom Party’s roots. The party was founded in 1956 by Anton
Reinthaller, a former Nazi Minister of Agriculture and SS officer, as
a consolidation of hyper-nationalist parties that had formed following
World War II.
Hofer is very much a political figure in the mold of Reinthaller. As
Business Insider notes, had Hofer won he would have been the first
far-right European head of state since Francisco Franco in Spain. And
while Austria’s president is largely a figurehead, Hofer had promised
to push the limits of his powers in office, attending EU meetings and
throwing a wrench in trade deals that had been worked out elsewhere in
the government. In short, his election would have been significant and
jarring for the European political landscape.
The combination of taking a hard line on immigration — which in Europe
is shorthand for scaremongering about refugees from majority-Muslim
countries — and replacing skepticism of Putin with skepticism of trade
deals had led Hofer to be dubbed the Donald Trump of Austria. That
association may explain why Breitbart’s homepage this morning looked
like this:
LEFTIST GREEN CANDIDATE SNATCHES AUSTRIA VICTORY FROM
ANTI-MASS-MIGRATION POPULIST
That’s right: Breitbart is very sad that the pro-Putin candidate from
the party founded by an SS officer lost, because that candidate hates
Arab Muslims as much as Donald Trump does. In their view, van der
Bellen is the radical one, and it’s a shame that he eked out the
win…because he’s nicer to brown people than the neo-Nazi candidate. Or
something.
==(end of repost.)
Warren D Smith
May 24, 2016, 12:05:28 AM5/24/16
to electio...@googlegroups.com
RT.com news report:
The Green Party’s Alexander Van der Bellen has won Austria’s
presidential election, beating the Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer in a
neck and neck race, according to the Interior Ministry. A mere 0.6
percent of the mail-in ballot made the difference.
The Interior Ministry’s figures showed Van der Bellen won with a final
total of 50.3 percent of the vote, with Hofer securing 49.7.
Now Van der Bellen, who ran as an independent but whose campaign was
backed financially by his party, is to become Austria’s first Green
president.
Hofer has already posted an address to his supporters conceding defeat:
“I thank you for your great support. Of course I'm sad today. I would
like to watch out for you as president of our wonderful country. I
will remain loyal to you and make my contribution for a positive
future of Austria. Please do not be discouraged. The cause of this
election campaign is not lost, consider it an investment into the
future,” Hofer wrote on his Facebook page.
In a race that was almost too close to call, the 4.48 million direct
votes counted on Sunday, before postal votes were added, gave
72-year-old Van der Bellen 48.1 per cent against 51.9 percent for his
rival, the Euroskeptic, anti-immigration Hofer.
The remaining 885,000 mail-in ballots – more than 10 percent of the
6.4 million Austrians eligible to vote – took some 20 hours to count,
and overturned Sunday’s results.
Before the election began, Van der Bellen was considered a firm
favorite. It was Hofer who unexpectedly won the first round, though,
claiming 35 percent of votes compared to 21.3 percent for Van der
Bellen.
However, Hofer’s failure to secure a majority of votes paved the way
for the runoff.
A number of Austrian political analysts and pollsters, including the
SORA policy research institute, recently predicted the mail-in ballots
were likely to favor Van der Bellen, as the majority of these votes
are cast by expatriates who tend to prefer open-border and pro-EU
policies.
Furthermore, as an economics professor and former head of the
increasingly popular eco-friendly Green Party, Van der Bellen has
strong support in cities.
During his election campaign, Van der Bellen spoke of his hopes for a
closing of ranks between supporters of all major parties in order to
prevent the Freedom Party (FPO) from winning the election, describing
himself as a “lesser evil.”
Van der Bellen's campaign was not as controversial as Hofer's, who had
even carried a gun to election rallies, calling it a "natural
consequence" of immigration.
Hofer and the FPO’s nationalist appeal to put "Austria first," paired
by strong opposition to "forced multiculturalism, globalization and
mass immigration" secured the candidate increasing support because of
deepening frustration with the ruling parties and how they are dealing
with the migrant crisis that has engulfed Europe.
"I'm not a dangerous person, of course. But those people […] who don't
appreciate our country, who go to war for the Islamic State [IS,
formerly ISIS/ISIL] or rape women – I say to those people: 'This is
not your home! You can't stay in Austria!' Because we differentiate
very clearly between those who continue to build up Austria together
with us and those who only care about destroying this country. We have
to make this differentiation," Hofer said in a recent election rally.
The prospect of Hofer's victory shocked European political
establishments long before the runoffs. Senior European officials like
Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, issued
warnings that "Europe’s character will be changed" if the FPO wins the
post. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called on
Austrian people to vote for any alternative to Hofer.
Still, this is the first time in Austrian history that no candidate
from the traditionally powerful centrist coalition parties (Social
Democratic SPO and Conservative OVP) was represented in the runoffs.
SPO member and Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann had resigned earlier
in May, partly because of his party's debacle in the first round of
presidential elections.
Political analyst Gerhard Mangott told RT the huge success of the
Freedom Party and the fact that none of the ruling parties even got
into the runoffs shows that Austrians are deeply dissatisfied with the
way the authorities are dealing with existing problems – with mass
immigration just one of these.
"It was […] a vote against the establishment. People are fed up with
the current government that is not able to deal with the economic
crisis in the country. It was a socially-motivated protest against the
government," Mangott said.
He also noted that despite losing the presidential election, Hofer and
his party's current success is a clear sign the right-wingers will not
take no for an answer and will target the position of chancellor next.
"[…] despite the fact that they've lost today they will use all the
support they've received now for the forthcoming parliamentary
election."
--
Warren D. Smith
http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking
"endorse" as 1st step)
The Green Party’s Alexander Van der Bellen has won Austria’s
presidential election, beating the Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer in a
neck and neck race, according to the Interior Ministry. A mere 0.6
percent of the mail-in ballot made the difference.
The Interior Ministry’s figures showed Van der Bellen won with a final
total of 50.3 percent of the vote, with Hofer securing 49.7.
Now Van der Bellen, who ran as an independent but whose campaign was
backed financially by his party, is to become Austria’s first Green
president.
Hofer has already posted an address to his supporters conceding defeat:
“I thank you for your great support. Of course I'm sad today. I would
like to watch out for you as president of our wonderful country. I
will remain loyal to you and make my contribution for a positive
future of Austria. Please do not be discouraged. The cause of this
election campaign is not lost, consider it an investment into the
future,” Hofer wrote on his Facebook page.
In a race that was almost too close to call, the 4.48 million direct
votes counted on Sunday, before postal votes were added, gave
72-year-old Van der Bellen 48.1 per cent against 51.9 percent for his
rival, the Euroskeptic, anti-immigration Hofer.
The remaining 885,000 mail-in ballots – more than 10 percent of the
6.4 million Austrians eligible to vote – took some 20 hours to count,
and overturned Sunday’s results.
Before the election began, Van der Bellen was considered a firm
favorite. It was Hofer who unexpectedly won the first round, though,
claiming 35 percent of votes compared to 21.3 percent for Van der
Bellen.
However, Hofer’s failure to secure a majority of votes paved the way
for the runoff.
A number of Austrian political analysts and pollsters, including the
SORA policy research institute, recently predicted the mail-in ballots
were likely to favor Van der Bellen, as the majority of these votes
are cast by expatriates who tend to prefer open-border and pro-EU
policies.
Furthermore, as an economics professor and former head of the
increasingly popular eco-friendly Green Party, Van der Bellen has
strong support in cities.
During his election campaign, Van der Bellen spoke of his hopes for a
closing of ranks between supporters of all major parties in order to
prevent the Freedom Party (FPO) from winning the election, describing
himself as a “lesser evil.”
Van der Bellen's campaign was not as controversial as Hofer's, who had
even carried a gun to election rallies, calling it a "natural
consequence" of immigration.
Hofer and the FPO’s nationalist appeal to put "Austria first," paired
by strong opposition to "forced multiculturalism, globalization and
mass immigration" secured the candidate increasing support because of
deepening frustration with the ruling parties and how they are dealing
with the migrant crisis that has engulfed Europe.
"I'm not a dangerous person, of course. But those people […] who don't
appreciate our country, who go to war for the Islamic State [IS,
formerly ISIS/ISIL] or rape women – I say to those people: 'This is
not your home! You can't stay in Austria!' Because we differentiate
very clearly between those who continue to build up Austria together
with us and those who only care about destroying this country. We have
to make this differentiation," Hofer said in a recent election rally.
The prospect of Hofer's victory shocked European political
establishments long before the runoffs. Senior European officials like
Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, issued
warnings that "Europe’s character will be changed" if the FPO wins the
post. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called on
Austrian people to vote for any alternative to Hofer.
Still, this is the first time in Austrian history that no candidate
from the traditionally powerful centrist coalition parties (Social
Democratic SPO and Conservative OVP) was represented in the runoffs.
SPO member and Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann had resigned earlier
in May, partly because of his party's debacle in the first round of
presidential elections.
Political analyst Gerhard Mangott told RT the huge success of the
Freedom Party and the fact that none of the ruling parties even got
into the runoffs shows that Austrians are deeply dissatisfied with the
way the authorities are dealing with existing problems – with mass
immigration just one of these.
"It was […] a vote against the establishment. People are fed up with
the current government that is not able to deal with the economic
crisis in the country. It was a socially-motivated protest against the
government," Mangott said.
He also noted that despite losing the presidential election, Hofer and
his party's current success is a clear sign the right-wingers will not
take no for an answer and will target the position of chancellor next.
"[…] despite the fact that they've lost today they will use all the
support they've received now for the forthcoming parliamentary
election."
--
Warren D. Smith
http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking
"endorse" as 1st step)
Warren D Smith
May 24, 2016, 12:13:58 AM5/24/16
to electio...@googlegroups.com
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36362505
is a pretty good BBC news report.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016
is wikipedia.
I daresay soon Rob Richie will explain how this election was a
"tremendous success" for IRV. But unfortunately it currently
looks to me (I agree with Markus, albeit he saw this
coming a long time before I did) more like a
huge indictment of IRV.
Was it? I'm not sure.
QUESTION:
can we obtain pairwise poll data which perhaps would identify
a Condorcet winner (if any)? What about approval- or score-style poll data?
is a pretty good BBC news report.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016
is wikipedia.
I daresay soon Rob Richie will explain how this election was a
"tremendous success" for IRV. But unfortunately it currently
looks to me (I agree with Markus, albeit he saw this
coming a long time before I did) more like a
huge indictment of IRV.
Was it? I'm not sure.
QUESTION:
can we obtain pairwise poll data which perhaps would identify
a Condorcet winner (if any)? What about approval- or score-style poll data?
Warren D Smith
May 24, 2016, 12:34:31 AM5/24/16
to electio...@googlegroups.com
http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-nur-knapp-vor-Hofer/230748681
appears to contain two pairwise polls by Gallup Osterreich 4-6 april:
Irmgard Griss 51% - Alex. Van der Bellen 49%
Van der Bellen 52% -- Norbert Hofer 48%
suggesting the official ultimate IRV winner Van der Bellen
would have lost pairwise to Irmgard Griss (who officially
came third). But this pairwise victory lies within the statistical margin of
error of this poll.
Hopefully other pairwise and/or score and approval style polls
exist but if so I have not found them.
Officially the IRV top-rank preference counts were
Hofer 35%
Van der Bellen 21%
Griss 19%
Hundstorfer 11%
Khol 11%
Lugner 2%
and then VdB won by a hair over Hofer due to transfer votes.
appears to contain two pairwise polls by Gallup Osterreich 4-6 april:
Irmgard Griss 51% - Alex. Van der Bellen 49%
Van der Bellen 52% -- Norbert Hofer 48%
suggesting the official ultimate IRV winner Van der Bellen
would have lost pairwise to Irmgard Griss (who officially
came third). But this pairwise victory lies within the statistical margin of
error of this poll.
Hopefully other pairwise and/or score and approval style polls
exist but if so I have not found them.
Officially the IRV top-rank preference counts were
Hofer 35%
Van der Bellen 21%
Griss 19%
Hundstorfer 11%
Khol 11%
Lugner 2%
and then VdB won by a hair over Hofer due to transfer votes.
Warren D Smith
May 24, 2016, 12:58:46 AM5/24/16
to electio...@googlegroups.com
Two more head to head (Kopf an kopf) pairwise
polls, this one very early, namely 23-25 february,
found
VdB 58% -- Hofer 42%
and
VdB 56% -- Griss 44%.
http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Jetzt-sind-alle-Kopf-an-Kopf/225612647
ERROR: I had said the voting process was IRV. It
wasn't; it really was plurality (24 April) with a separate top-2 runoff held
22 May.
polls, this one very early, namely 23-25 february,
found
VdB 58% -- Hofer 42%
and
VdB 56% -- Griss 44%.
http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Jetzt-sind-alle-Kopf-an-Kopf/225612647
ERROR: I had said the voting process was IRV. It
wasn't; it really was plurality (24 April) with a separate top-2 runoff held
22 May.
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