I ended up doing Dog Mountain today, mostly because it was easily accessible and my friend drives a 2WD without too much of clearance.
It really liked the morning hike up along the west side in the shadows. While there were good starting conditions around noon to 1pm (~3m/s from WNW according to a precision plastic streamer manufactured on location), the wind was mostly mechanic. Turns out the thermals that could have worked were blown away by the valley winds.
It took me a bit by surprise that soaring also did not work. I actually encountered pockets of sink I still struggle a bit to explain. So I ended up doing a sledge ride along the west face of DM and the hilltop behind trying to get further into the wind, then turning into the valley with good clearance, where I landed on the parking on almost full bar - no chance to reach the lake, but absolutely laminar wind flow in this corner.
I noticed the presence of valley winds and very calm conditions further up, but since the takeoff description mentioned white caps during stronger winds, I did not think too much of it. By the time I am writing this, the wind has picked up considerably, and there are still no white caps on the water. I will drive down to the lakeside landing later to check if it is just the compression effect along the cliffside.
I did not get to check conditions at the landing site after all, as we drove off the other way. What I did notice were whitecaps all along the river *but* near Dog Mountain, even three to four hours later when the wind really picked up. I won't speculate about the reasons, but it definitely means that just because there are no whitecaps doesn't mean you'll be able to penetrate.