COSATU Media Monitor, 8 November 2010

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1. Workers

1.1 Still no end in sight for dispute over clothing wages

By JANA MARAIS, The Times, 8 November 2010

It is unlikely that a decision on a new pay model, which could save 15000 jobs at non-compliant clothing factories, will be reached before the deadline of end-December, parties involved in the negotiations said this week.

After government intervention, led by Ebrahim Patel, the Minister for Economic Development and former clothing and textile union Sactwu general secretary, the National Bargaining Council for the clothing industry agreed to sit on more than 300 writs of execution against non-compliant factories until the end of the year.

The factories, mainly in non-metro areas and involved in low-margin cutting, making and trimming, struggle to pay prescribed minimum wages.

"We hope that there will be an agreement by December, but clearly some tough decisions will have to be taken.

"Stakeholders will have to move out of their comfortable positions regarding policy," said Johann Baard, executive director of the Apparel Manufacturers of SA (Amsa). "If not, 15000 jobs will be sacrificed."

Two mediators met individual stakeholders, but no talks with all parties have taken place. The appointment of a new labour minister may delay the process further.

Zubeida Jaffer, Patel's spokesman, said the department preferred "not to put a time-line to this as it will depend on all the parties".

Amsa, the Newcastle Chinese Chamber of Commerce and some non-compliant members have proposed cutting minimum pay to almost half for new employees, and to link additional pay to output. According to Baard, some Newcastle factories already use the model, and productive workers earn more than the prescribed bargaining council wages.

"The practical proof is that this model is do-able, administrable and can be policed. It can deliver a win-win outcome for all parties. Workers in some of these factories earn significantly more than the prescribed minimum wages, and they don't work 60-hour weeks," said Baard.

Sactwu has voiced fierce opposition to changes in the wage model, particularly lower minimum wages for new workers. While pay based on piece work is standard in, for example, the leather and footwear industry, there is no link now between pay and productivity in the clothing and textile industry, despite productivity being one of its major challenges.

Vic van Vuuren, director of the International Labour Organisation in Pretoria and one of Patel's mediators, said they had consulted stakeholders and come up with ideas and suggestions.

He declined to discuss the content of the proposals, saying Patel needed to be consulted first. The mediators are waiting for Patel to come back with a date for this meeting, which is expected to take place "soon", said Van Vuuren.

Renato Palmi, director of the ReDress Consultancy, said even if the parties agreed on lower minimum wages, it was "no guarantee that the industry will actually grow". Wages had to be levelled with productivity output, and manufacturers should compete on quality, reliability and delivery times, said Palmi.

"We need a sustainable minimum wage level and then have a productivity output incentive, which is based on output, service delivery and the quality retailers require," he said.

"The union, the bargaining council and manufacturers should be able to look at things in a creative way. Currently, manufacturers are either compliant or they're not - there is no room for creative thinking.

"Manufacturers are very fragmented and they face a tough battle with some very powerful players. Each person employed in the industry is often the sole breadwinner for five or six people. We can't afford for one party to win a case on principle and destroy people's livelihoods," said Palmi.

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2. South Africa

2.1 Cosatu call’s for Zulu’s suspension

Business Day, 8 November 2010

Cosatu called for the suspension of Simon Zulu, deputy public works minister Hendrietta Bogopane-Zulu’s husband on Monday, after reports that he is being investigated for sexual harassment.

“The federation also demands to know why the complainant has been given special leave and made to feel she was wrong to report the matter, whilst the alleged perpetrator is being allowed to continue working...,” Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) spokesman Patrick Craven said.

“Cosatu calls for the immediate reinstatement of the alleged victim, the suspension of the alleged perpetrator and for an immediate impartial investigation into the allegation.” Zulu, who was appointed as his wife’s guide since she is partially blind, allegedly demanded sexual favours from a junior staff member in her office, a report in the Sunday Independent read.

The staffer further stated that she informed Bogopane-Zulu in July, of the alleged harassment.

She also alleged that Zulu sent her unsavoury and suggestive SMS’s and later threatened her with expulsion if she did not have a sexual relationship with him.

The department said it had launched an investigation into the matter, and hoped to have it concluded by the end of November.

The complainant is now on special leave while Zulu remains at work.

In a letter to the director general Sxa Dongwana, the unnamed complainant said: “This is all against my beliefs and I did not get the protection I was looking for from the deputy minister. After all these incidents I don’t feel safe because of the statement that he will make my life miserable as he knows my whereabouts.”

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2.2 Nzimande warns alliance members

Mhlaba Memela, Sowetan, 8 November 2010

SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande has warned members of the alliance to fight their wars outside the party.

"We know that there are people who are aggrieved, but they should know that the SACP is not a refuge for people to fight their battles," Nzimande said.

Speaking at the closing of the Red October Festival rally and the launch of the 2011 local government election campaign in Ashdown Stadium in Pietermaritzburg at the weekend, Nzimande said they were aware that certain people within the ANC-led alliance sought to destroy the party.

He reaffirmed a united force among the alliance partners, saying there were no problems in the ANC or cracks big enough to justify any divisions.

"There are no problems in the ANC," he said. "Problems are created by self-serving and greedy individuals.

"We need to sweep those elements out of the ANC.

"We do not need people in our movement who want to accumulate wealth."

The alliance's top brass - including ANC provincial chairperson Zweli Mkhize, his deputy Willies Mchunu, SACP provincial secretary Themba Mthembu, Yunus Carrim, Christine Olivier and Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini - were in attendance.

Dlamini said there was no need to form an alternative force against the ANC.

He said they were still happy in the alliance.

"The ANC remains the hope of the people of this country and the nation," he said.

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2.3 ANC supporters visit Block in jail

Frans Coetzee, Volksblad, NEWS24, 8 November 2010

Kimberley - The provisional charge sheet against Northern Cape finance, economy and tourism MEC John Block and his eight co-accused reads almost like the script of a thriller.

The nine are accused of having committed tender fraud amounting to R42 351 240 five years ago.

Block, 43, spent the weekend in a cell, where he was visited by ANC supporters.

Meanwhile, Cope has requested a special debate in the Northern Cape legislature, where Block's immediate future in his term of office will be discussed.

Masterminds

Block, the ANC chairperson in the province, and Gaston Savoi, 57, a wealthy businessman from Uruguay, were labelled the masterminds of the massive fraud scheme during their brief appearance in the magistrate's court on Thursday.

Block and Savoi, chairperson of Intaka Investments, have since been detained in single cells at the Transvaal Road police station. They will find out whether the State will oppose their bail on Tuesday.

Volksblad has heard that many ANC supporters visit Block's cell every day.

According to the interim charge sheet, the Northern Cape health department's inventory management unit allegedly didn't obtain quotes for the supply of water purifiers for the Colesberg and Calvinia hospitals.

Apparently the tender was awarded to Block, in an underhanded and fraudulent deal with Savoi and Fernando Praderi, 58, a co-director of Intaka Investments.

At the time, Block was the only shareholder of Chisane Investments in Kimberley as well as co-owner (with Savoi) of Intaka Northern Cape.

The quotes were allegedly compiled by Savoi, Praderi, Ansano Romani, 63, manager of marketing and sales at Grotto, a manufacturer of stainless steel tanks (mainly for the wine industry), and Ronald Geddes, 57, director of Westpro Fluid Handling Systems.

Sanjay Mitha, 39, former director of hospital maintenance and infrastructure at the Northern Cape health department, supposedly gave the quotes to Deon Madyo, 40, former head of the department, and Daniël Gaborone, 40, former chief financial officer, for approval.

Corruption

Block is accused of corruption because he allegedly received R772 000 from Savoi or Intaka Holdings between March 2005 and April 2006, in exchange for persuading officials to give Intaka Investments the tender for the water purifiers.

Madyo is suspected of corruption, since he allegedly received R672 269 from Savoi or Intaka Investments between March 2005 and January 2008 for persuading officials to give the tender to Intaka Investments.

Madyo is also being accused of receiving R8m during the same period from Savoi or Intaka Investments to persuade officials to give the tender to Intaka.

Madyo is at present a doctoral student at the University of Pretoria. Apparently this is part of his "sabbatical year". He has been using the title of "doctor" for quite some time already.

Madyo, Block and Nelmarie Oosthuizen, 35, a former administrative official at the health department in Kimberley, are being accused of money laundering.

Savoi, the main accused, is facing six charges of fraud and one of corruption.

At least five corporate entities stand accused in the provisional charge sheet.

The State will present the testimony of 20 people, including Dr Dion Theys from the health department.

The trial is scheduled to begin on March 18.

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2.4 Nzimande calls financial sector to account

By Mhlaba Memela , The Times, 8 November 2010

The SA Communist Party plans to summon banking groups and insurance companies to a meeting at which they will have to explain what they are doing to improve the lives of the poor.

SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande said other institutions - including the "usual suspects'' in black economic empowerment deals - would also be put to the question.

Speaking in Pietermaritzburg at the weekend, he said banks and insurance companies held trillions of rands in funds but empowerment deals in the sector tended to favour the same individuals.

"There is an estimated R3.3-trillion in their coffers at the moment but the big question is how much of this is used to help communities who use the same institutions," he said.

Nzimande said the SACP was in talks with Nedlac about convening a summit meeting next year at which companies would have the opportunity to explain their contribution to, and roles in implementing, government priorities such as rural development, healthcare and education.

An increasing number of consumers were being blacklisted as a result of the global recession, Nzimande said.

"We are against the swift moves by banks to attach property just because consumers have missed a month or two of instalments."

He said government development institutions needed to provide evidence of how they were fostering development.

"We want to see what the Industrial Development Corporation, Land Bank and Ithala [Bank] are doing in respect of the mandates given to them."

Ithala in KwaZulu-Natal came under severe criticism recently for granting loans to high-ranking officials and their spouses.

Nzimande said BEE policies should be reviewed.

"Let us elevate education and skills development.

"Young people are keen on tenders right now whereas there is no better tender than an education. No one can take that away from you," he said.

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2.5 UK Audit firm launches new arms deal probe

By SUBASHNI NAIDOO and MONICA LAGANPARSAD, Sunday Times, 8 November 2010

South African politicians and businessmen who pocketed R1-billion from the arms deal are set to be named in a new investigation by Britain's auditing watchdog.

The Accountancy and Actuarial Discipline Board (AADB) is to investigate KPMG, which advised BAE Systems on offshore companies that were used to pay "commissions" to influence the awarding of lucrative contracts in South Africa's R47.4-billion defence procurement package.

Controversial businessman Fana Hlongwane, who was an adviser to then-defence minister Joe Modise when the arms deal was initiated, will be a key figure in the latest probe.

It follows an investigation in the UK and Liechtenstein into alleged payments of more than R200-million by BAE to him.

The company, which has also been under investigation by Britain's Serious Fraud Office (SFO) since 2007 for issuing bribes in South Africa, recently "settled" a £286-million fine for failing to comply with global anti-bribery rules.

The boardhas initiated the latest probe after corruption cases related to the arms deal were mysteriously dropped by South Africa's Hawks unit in September.

The audit, which will involve scrutiny of KPMG's confidential records, is set to reveal substantial financial evidence - and disclose the names of influential individuals - who, in exchange for cash, helped BAE supply Hawk trainer aircraft and Gripen fighter jets to South Africa for $2.1-billion.

Independent Democrats leader Patricia de Lille said yesterday she would also be approaching the board to offer assistance, and would request a copy of its findings.

De Lille this week lodged a formal complaint with the public protector regarding the "politically motivated" decision to close the local investigation into corruption in the arms deal.

She is also pursuing a private prosecution of 28 "politically connected individuals" on whom she has evidence of having unlawfully benefited from the procurement programme.

Trade union federation Cosatu and the Democratic Alliance also welcomed the news, describing it as an "exciting new development".

They urged the government to co-operate if requested and to consider re-opening its investigation into the arms deal.

"As far as co-operation with foreign investigations is concerned, these are matters best dealt with at government-to-government level," said party spokesman Brian Sokutu.

The board is investigating KPMG's audits between 1997 and 2007, relating to commissions paid by BAE to third-party agents and outside companies in major arms deals.

AADB spokesman Jonathan Labrey this week declined to comment, other than to say that the investigation was the result of the SFO's probe into BAE's practices in South Africa.

The SFOobtained signed affidavits in 2008 regarding bank statements which showed that the arms company paid £115-million to advisers "to assist in the securing and maintaining of the Hawk and Gripen contract" with South Africa and other countries.

According to the AADB, "BAE set up a system of offshore, anonymous companies to funnel payments around the world. Two of them were in the British Virgin Islands tax haven."

Among these is Red Diamond Trading, which was investigated over a series of payments made through it, including £70-million distributed to agents in SA.

In addition to these payments, the AADB said it would probe KPMG's advice to BAE on the operation of offshore companies, including Red Diamond Trading, Poseidon Trading Investments and Novelmight.

The AADB declined to confirm whether it was investigating Arstow, another offshore company set up by BAE Systems, which paid out more than R53-million.

In March, the Sunday Times reported that allegations contained in secret court documents, including a 106-page affidavit from deputy director of public prosecutions Billy Downer, detailed how Hlongwane was effectively paid £4.9-million between October 1999 and July 2001 by Arstow.

Hlongwane could not be reached for comment despite numerous attempts. Lindsay Walls, a spokesman for BAE, declined to comment.

KPMG spokesman Gavin Houlgate said the company would be "co-operating fully with the AADB".

David Maynier, the DA's defence and military spokesman said: "The AADB investigation is an exciting new development. It may provide a way back into the arms deal.

"We are in the process of applying for all documents relating to the arms deal investigation."

Hawk's boss Anwar Dramat had told parliament in September that it would cost too much to pursue the investigation into corruption in the arms deal.

He said that there were 460 boxes of documents and 4.7 million computer- generated documents relating to the arms deal in his possession.

On Friday, Hawks spokesman Colonel Lindela Mashingo reiterated that the arms deal investigation was closed, adding that his office was not aware of the latest investigation.

Asked whether the Hawks would co-operate with the AABD if it requested access to documents, Mashingo said: "Due consideration will be given to assisting ... as and when approached."

Standing Committee on Public Accounts chairman Themba Godi yesterday said: "I have written to the Hawks seeking a detailed explanation ... for their decision. It is on the basis of their response that we will decide on a way forward."

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3. Comments

3.1 The ANC's cunning plan

NEWS24, 8 November 2010

Broken promises and under-delivery on everything from employment, job creation, housing, health, security, corruption and basic services have overshadowed a lot of good things the ANC government has achieved.

And when you look at the anger with which residents of poorer communities have protested on service delivery, you have to wonder whether they will ever vote for the ANC again.

Add to that the violent strikes we have had this year by teachers, healthcare workers and many more and it makes you wonder whether anyone will vote for the ANC again.

On the face of it, all this anti-ANC sentiment seems to be exacerbated by rifts within the tripartite alliance, with the ANCYL fighting with the SACP and Cosatu having a go at just about everyone. And Julius Malema openly defying everyone from the president and deputy president to frankly anyone who is not a member of the ANCYL. In fact, I am wrong; he has even slammed some of his own members - especially those who seem to put a toe out of line.

Cunning plan

Given all this mudslinging, insurrection in the ranks, violent protest and general perception of all talk and no action along with enrichment and jobs for pals, surely there is no way South Africa would vote in another ANC government.

But, I'm willing to bet my boots they will.

And it doesn't take rocket science to work it out.

The ANC's cunning plan as I see it, is just to do what they did last time to get back into power, except this time do it a lot better.

Quite simply, last time round Julius Malema was sent out with the sole purpose of whipping up support from unemployed, unemployable young voters.

His was a crucial role because those young, unemployed voters made up 18% of the total number of voters in the country. The largest single block of voters. Remember, more than two thirds of all voters were under the age of 30.

And when you are appealing to people who have no jobs and no hope, you have to preach something that comes very close to anarchy. Think about it. If you were poor and unemployed you would love Malema to bits because everything he says is precisely what you would want to hear.

Malema won it

I believe that last time round, Julius Malema won the election of the ANC.

Now what is happening is while the DA, IFP and all the other contenders are just going about trying to convince voters that their policies are best, the ANC has moved far beyond that strategy.

They realise that there is a lot of dissent among workers. That there is a lot of dissent among the youth. They realise that there is a lot of dissent all over the place.

So, for the moment the ANCYL, Cosatu, and SACP are all doing what they need to do to ensure that their constituent members are supporting them.

By the time the next election arrives all of them want to have all of their followers following them. Complete loyalty.

It is my guess that just before the election things will take precisely the same turn they did last time.

All the leaders, ANCYL, the SACP and Cosatu will start hugging each other, become best buddies again and instruct their followers to vote ANC.

Keeping power

This is what tripartite alliances are all about. Keeping power.

Now, I am not an expert in politics at all but I have spent a lifetime studying communications and particularly the art of reading between the lines.

I expect to be shot down in flames by a lot of political purists for presenting this theory but let's look back on this when election time draws near.

I have read between the lines. I have read between the lies. And all I can see is an extremely obvious and cunning plan.

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3.2 The ANC crystal ball, version 2012

DAILYMAVERICK, 8 November,2010

Though frequent change at the top of the ruling ANC is disruptive, it is fun to watch and, crucially, it stops South Africa from becoming Zimbabwe. STEPHEN GROOTES was the final speaker at The Daily Maverick’s conference, The Gathering, and did not shy away from predicting who will make up the ANC’s “top six” in two years’ time.

Let me start by saying that at the end of this I’m going to predict who I think will be in the ANC’s top six after 2012. And then everyone in this room can tell me why I’m wrong. And then for the whole of 2013, you will have real evidence as to why I was wrong.

Predicting what’s going to happen in the ANC is a mug’s game. I’ve always believed that if you didn’t grow up in the organisation, you’re simply going to get it wrong. Polokwane proved that the media, myself included, often doesn’t really know what it is talking about. Having said that, Polokwane at least was a fairly easy situation to analyse. There were two main forces and only one could win. The run up to Mangaung at the end of 2012 is actually more difficult because there are more forces at play. Instead of the dynamic Mbeki vs Zuma and the factions and organisations that were caught up in that, we have a variety of trends happening at the same time.

This makes it harder to predict an outcome at Mangaung, but it also makes it a lot more fun. The path to power is usually lined with comedy and tragedy, and the greasy pole has plenty of pitfalls for those who don’t have the right support, misjudge their support and make statements that later turn out to be untrue.

If you think that I’m suggesting here that Julius Malema is more likely to slip than anyone else, you’d be right.

And may I just pause here and make a very important point.

We are very lucky that in our country people like Gwede Mantashe and Zwelinzima Vavi will come and speak to us (as they did at The Gathering). Mantashe knew what kind of audience he would face. But he appreciates that we are all South Africans, and that we must debate, we must talk. He sidesteps like Bryan Habana, sometimes he tackles like Victor Matfield – but the fact is he gets that we are all South Africans with rights.

Contrast that with Julius Malema – or worse, Siphiwe Nyanda who once told me that I would get into trouble if I kept asking him about his businesses – or Pule Mabe in the ANC Youth League – who uses every press conference to threaten the media. Or the arrogance of Floyd Shivambu who wants to close Twitter.

Those are some of the people we need to watch closely – and we need to make sure that they learn why hearing the other side of the debate is important.

Let’s start with one of the forces that emerged very strongly since Polokwane: the tenderpreneurs. While obviously this phenomenon was around during the Mbeki years, it has really seized the imagination of the country. Mainly because one of the stronger public forces at the moment has seized it by the scruff of the neck and decided enough is enough. Zwelinzima Vavi has been the face of this particular force, arranging itself against tenderpreneurism. Of course, it’s pretty convenient for him that this could also be a rather large block in his own path to power.

The tenderpreneurs are defined in the public imagination as people such as Siphiwe Nyanda, Fikile Mbalula, the crowd around Julius Malema, the people mentioned by Mark Heywood – and yes – he included Tony Yengeni. There is no real legal proof at this point that these people are corrupt, but there is a perception in many quarters that they are. These are people who appear to have some power on the national working committee of the ANC, but less in the national executive committee. One way to work out their relative strength is what they try to do about Zwelinzima Vavi. The first attempt to have some kind of disciplinary action against him was a disaster. It was leaked, probably by one of Vavi’s allies on the NWC and it rebounded massively. It showed who was in this camp, and the kind of power they had. Vavi emerged as a paragon of virtue. Look at the way a wonderful M&G exclusive about his wife’s earnings just bounced off him. If that were a story about just about anyone else in our public life, it would have hung around his neck like a dead albatross. Instead, perhaps because we all know that the fight against corruption needs a hero, a man on a white charger who is within the alliance, Vavi has pretty much been left alone. That must be frustrating indeed for Nic Dawes and his colleagues.

The tenderpreneur’s main cheerleader is, of course, Julius Malema. He’s the one man who can go out and say that the youth have a responsibility to party. But he is certainly not the figure he once was. Malema has lost his ability to shock. The left has been able to win the public argument about nationalisation. It’s taken about a year for the left to say it publicly, but it’s now managed to convince the people that matter, that what’s really happening is that Malema is being used by capitalists to get government to bail them out of bad mining investments. At the NGC, no less a person that Trevor Manuel showed that he believes this to be true. He didn’t say it like that, but it’s obvious that’s what he believes.

This has taken the left a while. Jeremy Cronin told me on Talk Radio 702 at the beginning of the year that this was the case. It was live radio, and as always, he knew what he was doing. But he used Croninesque language, and such big words, that no one really understood him. But it was there.

What the left has successfully managed to do, is that even if not everyone believes its explanation of the why the youth league is pushing for nationalisation, it’s given them a plausible political reason to oppose it. In other words, there’s now a reason for them to say – hold on, we disagree with you. When it comes to taking on Julius Malema, you need a good reason. You also need people who will disagree with him, in public, and agree with you. This the left has now managed to do. There is an increasing feeling within the ANC’s main stream that Malema can be opposed.

And more importantly, that if you oppose him, you will not be decapitated by him and his allies.

It would also appear that the relative strength of the tenderpreuners took another dive with the sacking of Siphiwe Nyanda. He did pitch up to the national working committee meeting this week. Of course, that was one of the meetings to attend, and his face must have been quite something. One would think that after being sacked, he’s going to sulk for a while. If he doesn’t come back, then he’s going to look weak. He needs to think very carefully about what he does now. Anything too public looks like revenge. And one would think Zuma has a nice ambassador’s post for him. Get him off the stage, just get him out of here.

So then how do we assess the relative strength of the tenderpreneurs?

Not as strong as they were, I think. Fikile Mbalula is still very powerful. But he is also merely the sports minister. When I spoke to him recently, it was obvious he’s going to use his new post to campaign. He’ll go to every public game, and basically be chief cheerleader. But like the crown prince of Holland who does exactly the same thing, he’ll have no real power.

But this is a group of people who want power badly. And they will push for it. So we must watch them closely

Having said all this, we need to talk about the sad demise of one of the left’s main organs, the South African Communist Party.

There was a time when Blade Nzimande seemed to set the agenda. His song, “My mother was a kitchen girl, My father was a garden boy”, literally set the tone for every court appearance by Jacob Zuma. In a culture where political songs really, really matter, that was real power.

Now look at him. He’s a sorry shadow of his former self. His decision to go into the ANC NEC started to hamstring him, then his decision to go into cabinet was even worse.

What’s happened is that he’s lost his ability to speak out. He can no longer say what he thinks. And as any politician will tell you, the leader of the party is its biggest face, its biggest megaphone, its boldest symbol.

The symbol of the SACP is someone who likes big cars but can’t get a grip on his ministry.

In some ways this is hugely unfair. It’s allowed Zwelinzima Vavi to rule the roost in the public imagination. He’s out of government. What this means, as Adam Habib has put it, is that Vavi is judged on his rhetoric, while Nzimande is judged on actual delivery.

It really was a massive mistake Blade made going into government. It’s too early to say what this means for him, but I think he could have a rough leadership conference at the SACP’s next official gathering in 2012.

When we look at the economic forces shaping up within the ANC and the alliance, we have to start to look for the middle ground. What does the silent majority of ANC members think about nationalisation, about the National Health Insurance Scheme and about inflation targeting.

I don’t know. And I don’t think too many people really do either. I do think the middle ground may be a little frustrated with President Jacob Zuma, because most people do like action. Also, he’s not getting the same kind of rapture he used to get when he walked into a room. In ANC terms, that can be significant.

But Zuma is a force of a his own – a tsunami with plenty of momentum still.

And his strong showing at the NGC – plus his reshuffle could really be the start of something new. It could be the start of him gaining ground again. Also, if none of the people he sacked tries to take action against him, if they are seen to be weaker than him – then obviously he’ll start to look stronger.

One of the people most responsible for his recent strong showing has to be Gwede Mantashe. The man who linked the union movement to the SACP to the ANC played a massive role at the NGC. His speech dovetailed perfectly with Zuma’s. It was good, clever, calculating politics. Mantashe is astute and experienced, he knows how to play the game better than most people. What this means is that to an extent, Zuma may find he needs Mantashe’s support. Whether that means Mantashe will have the power to make or break Zuma is another question. On balance, surely “not” is the answer to that question.

So then, having said that making political predictions is a mug’s game, what does the ANC look like in December 2012.

I have to say 2012 could actually see a bigger shake-up in our politics than 2007 did. Because at Polokwane there was only really one election, Mbeki lost, and the other players around him stayed the same. 2012 is very different. Not only do we have the ANC leadership election in 2012, but we will also have a Cosatu and an SACP election.

Those two will come first. This means we should get a very good early indication of the political movements and trends ahead of the big showdown at Mangaung in 2012.

The questions that will need to be answered are: Will Blade Nzimande survive at the SACP, will Vavi really step down as general secretary of Cosatu and if so why, and what will the impact of those movements be on the ANC.

I think Vavi will step down, I think Nzimande will probably stay on.

But will Zuma? It’s too early to say, but possibly. If not him, then Kgalema Motlanthe must still be the front runner. He has the support of the unions, he’s courting the Youth League – and he is the current deputy president of the ANC– as Zuma was before him, don’t forget.

Okay – here it is then – my prediction for the ANC’s top six leadership. This is if Zuma goes; if he doesn’t the maths gets more complicated.

ANC president - Kgalema Motlanthe
ANC chairman - Gwede Mantashe
ANC secretary general - Zwelinzima Vavi
ANC deputy secretary general – I’m going out on a limb here – Lindiwe Sisulu
ANC treasurer – Mathews Phosa

I’ve missed out the position of ANC deputy president because I think it’s simply impossible to predict that at this point.

Now when I look at that list, I can already see problems with it. For a start, there’s only one woman, and the ANC probably would want at least two, gender parity being a big issue for the party. Then I think there are too many NUM veterans in that list, and surely some ANC members would have a problem with that. And who could fill the open post. There’s a chance Tokyo Sexwale could be on it, but not necessarily as deputy president.

If Zuma stays on as president, I think Motlanthe will stay on as deputy, and then the maths gets very scrambled from there.

But, it’s way too early to make hard-and-fast predictions of the ANC’s top six. And yes, sometimes they do just work it out the night before.

The fact that I’m even talking about change in at the very top of our politics like this reminds us of one important factor we have in South Africa that other less-successful countries lack.

We regularly have change at the top. This means there’s change through all levels of our government structures and bureaucracy. Just this past week has seen how quickly that change can happen – and what its impact can be on departments. This may be bad for service delivery, it’s unstable, it may make business a little worried.

But it stops us from being Zimbabwe. It stops us from having one small group of people running things for a long time. It stops the national police chief from being the president’s son-in-law. It means the people at the top have to watch their step very closely. And because Vavi has been so successful at making corruption such a big political issue, means that those who want to be corrupt have to be even more careful.

And it means that it’s going to be lots of fun to watch them as they try to climb that greasy pole – and once they get to the top – to see who can actually stay there.

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3.3 ANC strangely silent on miners at Aurora

By Mrs Bailey, Eldorado Park, 8 November 2010

Mrs Bailey, Eldorado Park: People should leave Zwelinzima Vavi and Gareth Cliff alone. I salute these guys. These two would make a great team because they are not afraid to talk about the problems South Africa is facing under the ANC.

Why does the ANC want to discipline Vavi? Is it because he will not allow them to shut him up or bribe him?

The ANC is quiet about families becoming overnight millionaires. What about Nelson Mandela's grandson Zondwa Mandela who is CEO of Aurora Mines and Jacob Zuma's nephew Khulubuse Zuma, who is the chairman of Aurora Mines?

Many of Aurora's miners have lost their houses and they do not have food to eat as they have not been paid for months.

What has the ANC done to assist these miners? Have you heard the ANC talk about them?

Not a word from the ANC because their families are involved.

They are hoping that this will just go away and people will forget about it. These miners' lives have been destroyed by leading ANC family members.

These miners will not in the near future recover what they have lost.

Their families have been destroyed. Obviously they have been blacklisted for not paying their debts. They have lost their dignity. Yet what does our government do? Absolute nothing about their problems.

How can I, a South African, be proud of a government failing to act on corruption against its ministers. The ones that the ANC has just sacked are the minority, there are more to be sacked and they know who they are.

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