Android slurps market share from Apple, RIM, Microsoft
Rotten Apple
"comScore's latest numbers give Android 13 per cent of the smartphone
market, just behind Microsoft's 13.2. Whereas Google's share leapt 4
percentage points between February and May, Microsoft fell 1.9 points."
"Meanwhile, RIM and Apple also saw their shares shrink as well. According to
comScore, RIM's share fell 0.4 points, while Apple's dropped one percentage
point. Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
which didn't happen until June."
Recap:
"Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
Savor it:
"Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
One more time:
"Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
Tim Murray
>
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/08/android_grabs_13_per_cent_smartphone
_m
> arket_share/
>
> "comScore's latest numbers give Android 13 per cent of the smartphone
> market, just behind Microsoft's 13.2. Whereas Google's share leapt 4
> percentage points between February and May, Microsoft fell 1.9 points."
>
> "Meanwhile, RIM and Apple also saw their shares shrink as well. According to
> comScore, RIM's share fell 0.4 points, while Apple's dropped one percentage
> point. Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
> which didn't happen until June."
>
>
>
> Recap:
>
> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> Savor it:
>
> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> One more time:
>
> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
>
Review: "Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
RonB
A lot of Apple iPhones 4 were sold, but does this mean there was a big
jump in market share -- or did most of them sell to people who already
owned older iPhones?
--
RonB
"There's a story there...somewhere"
RonB
I should mention that the point of the article -- I read it a few days
ago, but didn't post anything about it here -- is that Verizon's share
of the smartphone market is growing *without* the iPhone because of the
Android smartphones. I think in the last year (doing this by memory)
AT&T's share of smart phones dropped from about 45% to 40% and Verizon's
share moved from (again from memory) about 22% to 27%. So that's
significant movement.
Here's what the article says -- I Googled it... was off by a percentage
point and the timeline was closer to a year and a half instead of a year.
"'Verizon is back in the game, even without the iPhone,' said Craig
Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.
Despite the pull of the iPhone, Verizon has managed to steadily increase
its share of the smartphone market, to 26 percent in May, from 20
percent in late 2008. In the same period, AT&T’s market share slipped to
40 percent, from around 45 percent, according to comScore. Those numbers
do not take into account the impact of the popular iPhone 4, released
last month."
Have the numbers shifted back with Apple's release of the iPhone 4 since
May? I doubt it, since the Droid Incredible and Droid X are both selling
like hotcakes -- as is Sprint's Evo. There's one iPhone on one carrier
-- there are several Androids on several carriers. Android *will* take
the market share, it's inevitable.
ed
> > _m
> >> arket_share/
>
> >> "comScore's latest numbers give Android 13 per cent of the smartphone
> >> market, just behind Microsoft's 13.2. Whereas Google's share leapt 4
> >> percentage points between February and May, Microsoft fell 1.9 points."
>
> >> "Meanwhile, RIM and Apple also saw their shares shrink as well. According to
> >> comScore, RIM's share fell 0.4 points, while Apple's dropped one percentage
> >> point. Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
> >> which didn't happen until June."
>
> >> Recap:
>
> >> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> >> Savor it:
>
> >> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> >> One more time:
>
> >> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> > Review: "Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
> > which didn't happen until June"
>
> A lot of Apple iPhones 4 were sold, but does this mean there was a big
> jump in market share -- or did most of them sell to people who already
> owned older iPhones?
iirc, estimates were 77% of launch customers were upgrades from older
iphones. att reports tomorrow, so they might shed some more light
into the break down.
Alan Baker
"Rotten Apple" <rot...@pple.com> wrote:
> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/08/android_grabs_13_per_cent_smartphone_m
> arket_share/
>
> "comScore's latest numbers give Android 13 per cent of the smartphone
> market, just behind Microsoft's 13.2. Whereas Google's share leapt 4
> percentage points between February and May, Microsoft fell 1.9 points."
>
> "Meanwhile, RIM and Apple also saw their shares shrink as well. According to
> comScore, RIM's share fell 0.4 points, while Apple's dropped one percentage
> point. Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
> which didn't happen until June."
>
>
>
> Recap:
>
> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> Savor it:
>
> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> One more time:
>
> "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
Between February and May... ...when people were aware of a new iPhone
coming and could reasonably be expected to hold off purchasing until it
was available.
Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
:-)
--
"The iPhone doesn't have a speaker phone" -- "I checked very carefully" --
"I checked Apple's web pages" -- Edwin on the iPhone
"It is Mac OS X, not BSD.' -- 'From Mac OS to BSD Unix." -- "It's BSD Unix with Apple's APIs and GUI on top of it' -- 'nothing but BSD Unix' (Edwin on Mac OS X)
'[The IBM PC] could boot multiple OS, such as DOS, C/PM, GEM, etc.' --
'I claimed nothing about GEM other than it was available software for the
IBM PC. (Edwin on GEM)
'Solaris is just a marketing rename of Sun OS.' -- 'Sun OS is not included
on the timeline of Solaris because it's a different OS.' (Edwin on Sun)
KDT
It doesn't matter. "Market share" is the percentage sold during a
certain period compared to the overall market. "Installed based"
would be influenced by repeated buyers versus new buyers.
ed
> In article <3XI1o.100158$Lj2.97...@newsfe05.iad>,
> "Rotten Apple" <rot...@pple.com> wrote:
> >http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/08/android_grabs_13_per_cent_sma...
> > arket_share/
>
> > "comScore's latest numbers give Android 13 per cent of the smartphone
> > market, just behind Microsoft's 13.2. Whereas Google's share leapt 4
> > percentage points between February and May, Microsoft fell 1.9 points."
>
> > "Meanwhile, RIM and Apple also saw their shares shrink as well. According to
> > comScore, RIM's share fell 0.4 points, while Apple's dropped one percentage
> > point. Of course, these figures don't include the launch of the iPhone 4,
> > which didn't happen until June."
>
> > Recap:
>
> > "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> > Savor it:
>
> > "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> > One more time:
>
> > "Apple's [share] dropped one percentage point. "
>
> Between February and May... ...when people were aware of a new iPhone
> coming and could reasonably be expected to hold off purchasing until it
> was available.
people know that there's going to be a new iphone EVERY year in the
june/july timeframe- do you have anything to support that there's a
noticeable drop in sales the 3-4 months prior to that time frame?
> Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
time frame, and how much? ;D
> :-)
:D
RonB
> i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> time frame, and how much? ;D
I'm guessing Android is gaining market share on Apple iPhone right now,
even with the successful release of the iPhone 4. They have the
advantage of a "fragmented" market.
RonB
> iirc, estimates were 77% of launch customers were upgrades from older
> iphones. att reports tomorrow, so they might shed some more light
> into the break down.
If that's true, that means Android is still picking up market share from
Apple -- even now during the iPhone 4 release. And there will be several
more Androids released before the next iPhone goes to market.
Alan Baker
<360e8bff-e80a-41bd...@p11g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
ed <ne...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
Do they?
The iPhone has only been on sale for 3 years, so there were only two
phones on which to base this "EVERY year" pattern, and in both of the
previous two updates, there was much less lead time. The iPhone 3G was
announced in early June of 2008 and started selling a month later. The
iPhone 3Gs was announced in early June of 2009 and went on sale only 11
days later.
By contrast, the iPhone 4 may have been officially announced only 17
days before it went on sale, but information about it had leaked out
much earlier, including the front-facing video camera.
What is necessary beyond logic to see how that might have depressed
sales?
>
> > Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
>
> i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> time frame, and how much? ;D
Sorry, but I wouldn't trust you to pay off. You'd claim it wasn't what
you said.
>
> > :-)
>
> :D
KDT
You're really going to argue that sells don't spike between June and
August with the introduction of a new phone, and during the Christmas
quarter compared to at least the Jan-May?
Tim Cook said during the quarterly conference call that there was a
sells slowdown before the introduction of the iPhone 4.
I usually don't quote Wikipedia, but the sources for the numbers are
below the graph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg
>
> > Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
>
> i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> time frame, and how much? ;D
The better question is, what difference does it make? Is it going to
cause developers to flock to Android with only 2% of the revenue
payout for apps compared to the iPhone? Will the Android become a
better target for apps than the iPhone + Touch combined? Will you be
able to find after market A/V accessories for Android devices like you
can for the iPhone?
>
> > :-)
>
> :D
ed
they do.
> The iPhone has only been on sale for 3 years, so there were only two
> phones on which to base this "EVERY year" pattern, and in both of the
> previous two updates, there was much less lead time. The iPhone 3G was
> announced in early June of 2008 and started selling a month later. The
> iPhone 3Gs was announced in early June of 2009 and went on sale only 11
> days later.
>
> By contrast, the iPhone 4 may have been officially announced only 17
> days before it went on sale, but information about it had leaked out
> much earlier, including the front-facing video camera.
>
> What is necessary beyond logic to see how that might have depressed
> sales?
and you think there was no info available about the previous phones
prior to the official announcement?
> > > Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
>
> > i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> > time frame, and how much? ;D
>
> Sorry, but I wouldn't trust you to pay off. You'd claim it wasn't what
> you said.
here's what i'll do alan- let's make it $100 bet, a 6 month time
frame, and i'll PREPAY you via paypal. if you win, you keep the
hundred, if i win, you send me back $200. :D and if i don't win,
well, i'm only out a hundred bucks but i get to call you a lying cheat
forever.
> > > :-)
>
> > :D
ZnU
RonB <ronb02...@gmail.com> wrote:
> percent in late 2008. In the same period, AT&T零 market share slipped to
> 40 percent, from around 45 percent, according to comScore. Those numbers
> do not take into account the impact of the popular iPhone 4, released
> last month."
>
> http://tinyurl.com/299hans
Assuming these numbers are actually talking about market share and not
installed base, Apple's upgrade cycle becomes extremely relevant. Pretty
much everyone knows there's a new iPhone every summer, and sales the
falloff in the few months leading up to it is significant.
> Have the numbers shifted back with Apple's release of the iPhone 4 since
> May? I doubt it, since the Droid Incredible and Droid X are both selling
> like hotcakes -- as is Sprint's Evo.
In terms of sales volume, the iPhone operates according to what are
frankly just entirely different standards, as compared with other
individual phone models. We were told the original Droid sold extremely
well, for instance, but it moved about 1M units in the first two months.
Apple moved 1M units in the first two _days_ with iPhone 4.
> There's one iPhone on one carrier -- there are several Androids on
> several carriers. Android *will* take the market share, it's
> inevitable.
Android probably will continue to pick up market share until iPhone is
on more carriers. But it's just a matter of time before that happens.
Apple has been actively moving away from exclusive carrier deals world
wide. With the recent announcement that they're doing so in Spain, the
US and Germany will be the last two major markets in which this is an
issue. And if you believe the rumors, by early next year the iPhone
could be on Verizon and T-Mobile in the US.
--
"The game of professional investment is intolerably boring and over-exacting to
anyone who is entirely exempt from the gambling instinct; whilst he who has it
must pay to this propensity the appropriate toll." -- John Maynard Keynes
Rotten Apple
"ed" <ne...@atwistedweb.com> wrote in message
news:41c168f3-aad3-4ff6...@d8g2000yqf.googlegroups.com...
they do.
> > > :-)
>
> > :D
Don't hold your breath waiting for Alan "Wanna Bet" Baker to take your bet.
Alan Baker
<41c168f3-aad3-4ff6...@d8g2000yqf.googlegroups.com>,
ed <ne...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
Not compared to the info there was about the iPhone 4, no.
>
> > > > Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
> >
> > > i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> > > time frame, and how much? ;D
> >
> > Sorry, but I wouldn't trust you to pay off. You'd claim it wasn't what
> > you said.
>
> here's what i'll do alan- let's make it $100 bet, a 6 month time
> frame, and i'll PREPAY you via paypal. if you win, you keep the
> hundred, if i win, you send me back $200. :D and if i don't win,
> well, i'm only out a hundred bucks but i get to call you a lying cheat
> forever.
>
> > > > :-)
> >
> > > :D
--
ed
> On Jul 22, 1:00 am, ed <n...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
> > On Jul 21, 5:38 pm, Alan Baker <alangba...@telus.net> wrote:
> > > Between February and May... ...when people were aware of a new iPhone
> > > coming and could reasonably be expected to hold off purchasing until it
> > > was available.
>
> > people know that there's going to be a new iphone EVERY year in the
> > june/july timeframe- do you have anything to support that there's a
> > noticeable drop in sales the 3-4 months prior to that time frame?
>
> You're really going to argue that sells don't spike between June and
> August with the introduction of a new phone, and during the Christmas
> quarter compared to at least the Jan-May?
no, i'm not saying that at all- but a seasonal sale spike is NOT the
same as people "holding off" purchasing (you know, alan's claim), eh?
i.e. typically q4 is the best for apple due to the holidays- that
doesn't mean that people "hold off" buying the other quarters, just
that they have a specific reason to buy in q4.
> Tim Cook said during the quarterly conference call that there was a
> sells slowdown before the introduction of the iPhone 4.
>
> I usually don't quote Wikipedia, but the sources for the numbers are
> below the graph:
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg
um, looks like that q2 numbers HELD, unlike in previous years- i.e it
does NOT support that people held off purchasing for 4 months prior to
the iphone introduction!
> > > Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
>
> > i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> > time frame, and how much? ;D
>
> The better question is, what difference does it make?
i'm not saying it makes *any* difference- alan's the one throwing out
the bet, so you should ask him- i just think it's an easy bet to win
that android will pick up marketshare. ;D
ed
kdt just posted a chart that showed q2 apple sales holding in 2010-
unlike other quarters. that certainly doesn't support the assertion
that people were holding off purchases. do you have support of your
assertion?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg
> > > > > Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
>
> > > > i would- i bet that android continues to gain ground on iphone. what
> > > > time frame, and how much? ;D
>
> > > Sorry, but I wouldn't trust you to pay off. You'd claim it wasn't what
> > > you said.
>
> > here's what i'll do alan- let's make it $100 bet, a 6 month time
> > frame, and i'll PREPAY you via paypal. if you win, you keep the
> > hundred, if i win, you send me back $200. :D and if i don't win,
> > well, i'm only out a hundred bucks but i get to call you a lying cheat
> > forever.
well?
Alan Baker
<e8538678-4b70-4713...@t10g2000yqg.googlegroups.com>,
ed <ne...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
A graph which is showing huge growth with each of the previous 3
quarters suddenly levels off and you don't think it shows that people
might have held of purchasing?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
ZnU
> On Jul 22, 9:19 am, Alan Baker <alangba...@telus.net> wrote:
> > Not compared to the info there was about the iPhone 4, no.
>
> kdt just posted a chart that showed q2 apple sales holding in 2010-
> unlike other quarters. that certainly doesn't support the assertion
> that people were holding off purchases. do you have support of your
> assertion?
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg
Err... you're making the exact same mistake the "tax cuts always
increase revenue" Republicans make -- you're working from absolute
numbers rather than baseline projections.
The fact that there was strong growth in previous quarters and no growth
in Q2 2010 clearly establishes that iPhone sales in Q2 2010 were
negatively impacted by something.
[snip]
ed
> In article
> <e8538678-4b70-4713-85d4-8dad64c6f...@t10g2000yqg.googlegroups.com>,
>
> ed <n...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
> > On Jul 22, 9:19 am, Alan Baker <alangba...@telus.net> wrote:
> > > Not compared to the info there was about the iPhone 4, no.
>
> > kdt just posted a chart that showed q2 apple sales holding in 2010-
> > unlike other quarters. that certainly doesn't support the assertion
> > that people were holding off purchases. do you have support of your
> > assertion?
> >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg
>
> Err... you're making the exact same mistake the "tax cuts always
> increase revenue" Republicans make -- you're working from absolute
> numbers rather than baseline projections.
>
> The fact that there was strong growth in previous quarters and no growth
> in Q2 2010 clearly establishes that iPhone sales in Q2 2010 were
> negatively impacted by something.
it doesn't clearly establish any such thing without an *actual*
baseline!
ed
so you don't think the sales are of a cyclical nature?
and why do you keep avoiding the bet? :P
ZnU
<ab83a917-4323-448d...@e5g2000yqn.googlegroups.com>,
ed <ne...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
The problem is that you're treating the previous quarter's unit sales as
the baseline, when it makes far more sense to use a projection of the
previously existing _trend in unit sales growth_ as the baseline.
Say a company has been growing revenues at 20% a year for the last five
years. A new CEO comes on, and in his first year, revenue doesn't grow
at all. Would you claim there was no support for the theory that the new
CEO had hurt the company's revenue growth, on the basis that revenue was
just as high as it ever been?
ZnU
<b5355edc-3753-4bd9...@z10g2000yqb.googlegroups.com>,
ed <ne...@atwistedweb.com> wrote:
I wonder if there could be some specific annual event that determines
the timing of those cycles.
bbgruff
> Would you like to bet on how it will look in another few months, Edwin?
>
> :-)
Please could you just clarify for me what *you* are saying, Alan?
Are you talking here of iphone sales v. Android phone sales?
- and if so, are you seriously suggesting that in a few months time, more
iphones will be being sold than Android phones?
I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd be tempted to speculate a few
quid on that one, and bet that Android will be well ahead of iphone.
ZnU
bbgruff <bbg...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
It's unclear what will happen once the iPhone is available on more US
carriers.
But in any event, one can already see the probable shape of the debates
of the Great Smartphone Platform Wars of the next five years. Android
will probably come out on top for unit sales, but iOS will probably
remain on top in terms of the strength of the ecosystem that exists
around it -- particularly the amount of revenue generated for
third-party developers.
Android advocates will insist only unit sales matter, while iOS
advocates will argue that lower revenue in the Android marketplace
implies that people aren't really treating Android as a _platform_, so
counting unit sales isn't really comparing like-for-like.