How much would any sensible person want to bet on any
significant number of Window boxes still running the
same way in 2025 (never mind 2028) ?
I know some people round here said "VMS will be dead in
five years", and said it much more than five years ago.
That turned out to have been a misprediction. Turns out
VMS might even last longer than SPARC and Solaris, which
would be a laugh in some ways.
Meanwhile, back in the commodity world of Windows and
Linux, what are the odds of anything available today (let
alone five years ago) still being relevant in five years
time?
I don't even know how to start answering the question for
Linux in general (nothing against Linux where appropriate,
but the question above isn't realistically answerable,
though narrowing it down might help, e.g. SuSe Linux
Enterprise typically offers a ten year lifecycle).
That said, here's a current published MS OS lifecycle
for Win7, Win8, Win10:
https://support.microsoft.com/en-gb/help/13853/windows-lifecycle-fact-sheet
Have a read if you like, what follows is my commentary.
It seems fair to summarise it for mainstream (non-Enterprise
and non-Embedded) Windows OS customers as:
"anything you can buy today or may have bought in the past
will be end of mainstream service life two years from now if
not sooner" [1].
The obvious exception is the "Long Term Service" flavour
of Windows Server 2016, scheduled to be on mainstream
support until 2022, and extended support till 2027 (if
MS still have a relevant service delivery ecosystem at
that stage).
A handful of customers have historically chosen to pay $$$M
direct to MS for continued 'support' even after 'extended'
support runs out. Will that option still be available (or
useful) in a few years?
Anyone who's bet any serious money on non-mainstream Wintel
systems e.g. MS Windows RT (the ARM version) etc hopefully
won't make the same mistake again. Windows IoT seems likely
to head the same way in general, perhaps with a few corporate
exceptions e.g. in the automotive market.
Windows Embedded on x86, for anyone who's interested, is
basically EOL for new designs unless people want to migrate
their applications to Windows 8 or 10 (why would they?).
The existing Win7-based flavours of Windows Embedded are
mostly end of mainstream support alredy; some (e.g.
Windows PoS) reach end of extended support life in 2021.
Any Window boxes I directly support haven't gone beyond
Windows 7; one of the reasons for that is that the
people/systems I personally know that *have* gone beyond
Win7 haven't found it a very productive experience (to
put it politely); some have gone (or will soon go) back
to Win7.
In those circumstances, I do wonder what kind of
people are deploying Windows 10 systems at the moment,
especially as MS have made it very clear that Windows
10 is designed around being offered as a service, with
continuous updates (ie someone else's computer, someone
else's sysadmins, someone else's network, etc - just
like bureau timesharing, but with emojis rather than
teletypes). Slightly different rules apply to Windows 10
in Enterprise deals.
From a commercial point of view, Win10 seems to
make the existing MS support ecosystem into a
threatened species - you're either a Cloud customer
with a corporate Cloud provider, or you're an
Enterprise customer (with your own cloud?). Not
much space in between for smaller outfits or for
"unusual" requirements (e.g. the National
Instruments LabView etc market would be one
visible example where the gear has to be onsite
for resilience and responsiveness reasons???)
MS have tried to discourage further deployments
of Win7, both by making it increasingly hard to
buy, and by leaving the Windows Update process
(for fresh Win7 installs) broken at various times
in the last few years [2]. I did experience the
borked Windows Updates but stuck with Win7, and
the Windows Update process appears to have been
working again (for my fresh installs) since a
year or two ago. Hallelujah.
So, 2025 seems a very long way away from today
in commodity IT terms. The widely used commodity
OSes don't quite seem to know where they're
headed or when they'll get there.
Meanwhile VMS in its VSIVMS flavour is moving
forward in a way which few would have predicted;
more progress would doubtless be welcome,
particularly in the bigger (non-Engineering)
picture.
See you in 2025? 2028?
[1]
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-gb/windows-server/get-started/windows-server-release-info
[2]
https://superuser.com/questions/951960/windows-7-sp1-windows-update-stuck-checking-for-updates