Clinuvel Market Capitalization

[Uhohinc]

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/company/cuv

With the present stock price of about $3.10 and there being about 42.2 million Clinuvel shares that's about a present Market Cap for Clinuvel of about $130 million. Clinuvel management expressed this company would be a one billion dollar company. That's over $20 per share.

In December of 2007 I saw a link  by Dr. Wolgen stating at the time Clinuvel market cap at $105 million.

From the chart in the link above, based on the ten year chart, it looks like April of 2007 Clinuvel had a market cap of about, as it appears to me to be about $300 million dollars.  This was befor the share consolidation of about 300 million shares of Clinuvel down to them being equal to about 30 million Clinuvel shares. I think Clinuvel peaked about April of 2007 at about $1.05 per share.

I think most of those shares that were traded at that high price were affiliated to Absolute Capital Management and Florian Homm.  An irony is that Florian Homm now is beyond the U.S. Atorneys office for extradition, but he has multiple sclerosis by his reports. And he claims to have saved Clinuvel in his book. Probably did, but the what if game of history can be said to have gone many ways. And Clinuvel's drug will probably alleviate multiple sclerosis by sever inferences and by abstracts.

Clinuvel still has to reach a little over $6.00 per share to reach its historical April 2007 stock price high.  With it looking like Clinuvel will be on the CHMP agenda for market authorization on October 22, 2014 it would appear 5 and a half weeks of trading to go befor that.

[Uhohinc]

 Relativity.

I do not think Clinuvel is at its stock high. Remember, Clinuvel had 300 million shares, then consolidated ten for one to about 30 million shares. Then has added the ASX allowable for management to issue more shares each of the past three years.  The charts are not reliable in that one can state a Clinuvel share can  be equal to a Clinuvel share past the last share raising in which F.I.L. was the major buyer of shares in June 2014. There are four interloping related dilutions (one down and three up) that complicate comparing shares in those timeframes.  (I should say a math mind trick, not down dilution)

I think the best way to determine is with one percent of Clinuvel market cap to compare. One percent of Clinuvel shares in April 2007 appears to be Clinuvel lifetime peak price of one percent of all shares on issue were worth about $3,100,000 dollars.

Today one percent of Clinuvel of all shares on issue is about (42 million shares plus) 420,000 shares at $4.50 per share as of this moment is worth about $1.8 million dollars.  By my thinking, Clinuvel has along way to go befor being past its ten year high.............................A Clinuvel share today is only worth about  70% of what a Clinuvel share was (as representative as a share of the entire company) back in April of 2007. This is significant I think because about ten percent of all Clinuvel shares (ten percent of owenership in the company) traded pretty close to that time period when the shares were at the relative high point.

[Uhohinc]

Related to what Warren Buffet states that generally hedge funds have only made a generally 22% return in 9 years (not per year, in total) when Homm of ACM invested in Clinuvel, which was over the Buffet time period, I think the actual buy into price of shares for almost anyone conceivably whom invested in Clinuvel and stayed has tremendously outperformed the Buffet referenced Hedgfunds.

To note a few years ago Clinuvel traded under $1.00 per share. But that was before several capital raising s and share increases dilutions. And then the under $1.00 per share was so brief that only a few thousand shares traded and then the share price went back up. I have not found a chart that historically can account to what I think is accurate relative to a share price to dilutions and the split into account.

Perhaps a better picture as Clvly really never did a ten down to one stock split and the currency exchange rate has moved more than 20% rate of US to AUS

My estimate (emphasized) related to Buffet statement related to Clinuvel is that one million dollars invested in CLVLY in the about December 2007 Buffet reference would today be valued at over 2 million dollars today.

Even if we take the time in about April 2007 when ACM peaked its investment in Clinuvel and the CLVLY price peaked at about a $1.05 per share and had one been able to get a volume of trades at that time at that price ( or a commensurate ten shares of CUV ) (which did not happen at the peak price at very long time for trades volume) ............then one would have to conclude in accord to Warren Buffet article that EVERY investor has done tremendously better for being on average in Clinuvel stock then had such any stock investor gone with the market hedge fund experts overall, especially ACM and Florian Homm who left CUV to quick.

[joe_schmoe]

It very difficult to make an apples to apples comparison of the rest of the market to Clinuvel. Even within the pharmaceutical landscape, Clinuvel is an anomaly. looking at quarterlies to date, it appears the operational costs and manufacturing and distribution costs are miniscule. IMO, the end of year will show about 20 mil in revenues, with a profit margin pushing 80%. you wont see that anywhere else in the market. In time, Clinuvel EPS will be phenomenal, and will continue to make rapid share price jumps as more and more areas come on board. Even though the P3 vitiligo trial may cost 40 -50 million, that will be a one time cost that will not be financed through debt or dilution. Just guessing, but even after vitiligo is approved and distributed, profit margins will exceed 60% of revenue.

[Uhohinc]

In April, 2007, Clinuvel had 302,800 shares that had a $1.23 Aus dollar value for a market cap of about $374 million Aus dollars, per page 35 of the June 2007 Clinuvel Annual Report.

With the ten to one consolidation to about 30 million shares and subsequent raising of shares to about now 50 million shares there really is no compare.

And 2007 was the hyper economy that was created by paper appraisal values in trillions of USA and other real estate which was borrowed out and put in stocks.

One percent of Clinuvel in gross market cap in 2007 at the April stock price would have cost about $3,000,000 Aus dollars.
One percent of Clinuvel in gross market cap in 2018 at the April stock price will cost about $5,000,000 Aus dollars. (But of course if one attempted to buy 500,000 shares ........)

[Uhohinc]

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Merck_(MRK)/Data/Market_Capitalization/2007
As a random for fun comparison for ratio (keeping in mind even a dollar is not the same today as in April 2007)
Here is Merck Pharma in 2007, in which it would cost about $1.1 billion in USA dollars to buy 1% of Merck at that time.
And today it would cost about 1.5 billion USA dollars to buy one percent of Merck today. By far, Money invested in Clinuvel in 2007 has tremendously outperformed Merck.