Contribution to Temp. Rise

[ian]

I have a question about calculating historical contributions to global
temperature rise, as I am doing research on climate change ethics. I
see from your “Navigating the Numbers” publication and also from your
“CAIT: Indicator Framework Paper” that it is possible to calculate
historical contributions to global temperature rise per country.
However, I didn’t see that it was an option to calculate on the CAIT
website. Thus, I am writing to see if the United States’ historical
contribution can be calculated, and, if so, what that would be. Also,
I am curious as to whether your institute or any other organization
you know of has calculated projected contributions to global
temperature rise per country. I am also interested in the question of
the United States’ projected contribution in this regard. I realize
that projections for temperature vary, but I wonder if anyone has
attempted to figure out projected contributions in this regard.
Any information you can provide would be greatly appreciated. Thank
you for your time.

[Tom]

Dear Ian -

Thanks for your question. The data that corresponds to the method
described in the "CAIT: Indicator Framework Paper" (based on the
"Brazil Proposal") can be found in the "CAIT" product (http://
cait.wri.org/cait.php) by selecting "GHG Emissions" (under
"Indicators" in the left-side bar), then "Cumulative Emissions" and
then selecting "Temperature Increase" which is found directly above
the gray navigation box. This indicator can also be assessed in
analysis tools such as "Compare Indicators." Note, however, that the
estimates include CO2 emissions related to energy use only.

Unfortunately, I don't have a very good sense of what other
organizations have made similar calculations or projections (WRI has
not worked on this indicator in quite some time). I found these papers
by van Elzen et al.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/
S1462901105001103) and Hohne et al. (http://www.gcca.eu/usr/documents/
Contributions_Individual_countries_201011229410.pdf). The IPCC or UNEP
Emissions Gap Report might also be good places to start. Or perhaps
other colleagues on this forum can offer suggestions?

Hope this is helpful and best regards,

--Tom, CAIT manager