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Your assumption appears to be that the food that powers the man on the
bicycle is food that wouldn't be eaten by the (electric) motorist, but
this is very unlikely. The cyclist might eat more, but not as much as
is needed for the bicycling -- the motorist likely eats as much, but
runs on a treadmill at the gym (powered by even more electricity,
likely from a coal-fired power plant) or simply converts the excess
into fat stores. Of course, the cyclist, being healthier, probably
lives longer, but this is most likely balanced by a difference the
resource usage of medical procedures and drugs (those defibrilators
use electricity, too). All this isn't even considering differences in
production and longevity of the vehicles in question...
The "big picture" is awfully big, isn't it?
--Mike (from a laptop powered by rivers in Manitoba)
Agree. Though this is a bit off the cycling topic, you could claim that a clean-burning 3rd gen diesel engine (like that in the newer VW Jettas) is an even better proposition. About 20-30% better fuel mileage, at worst, and I've read that you can get more diesel fuel out of a barrel of crude than you can gasoline (that could be erroneous).
Anyhow, if you believe the peak oil people, we've only got about 1-5 years (max) of happy motoring left. Mother Nature has a way of fixing problems that even the best regulators cannot better.
Can't wait until my old bikes are worth $6000 or more!
Also, lithium batteries will soon be recycled, so that the lithium
doesn't just leech into landfills:
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23215/?a=f
For high-speed (by some definitions), long-distance transportation,
trains would be far more efficient than passenger cars, but that would
be an even bigger infrastructure project in North America.
--Mike
That depends on how the batteries get charged. Some get charged by
burning coal, some from photovoltaic cells exposed to sunlight.
There's an enormous difference.
> Anyhow, if you believe the peak oil people, we've only got about 1-5 years (max) of happy motoring left. Mother Nature has a way of fixing problems that even the best regulators cannot better.
>
> Can't wait until my old bikes are worth $6000 or more!
You think so? If bicycles are in higher demand, don't you think
people will make more of them? That usually causes prices to go in
the other direction. Unless you've got some real antique machines, of
course.
--Mike
There are a lot of factors here.
If old bikes were $6k, I'd be worried about parking the bike I bought
in 2005 for $550. So I hope prices don't spiral.
If things were to crash suddenly we could end up with a bike shortage.
We don't make them here any more, at least in any real volumes.
It'll be difficult to get them from Asia. Society is, unfortunately,
going direct energy if it becomes scarce to maintaining normalcy.
That is keeping the lights on, keeping car moving, etc. I don't think
there will be a sudden enlightenment that bicycles are the way to go.
In fact we might become easy targets for angry motorists who just paid
$10.00 a gallon for their 2.5 gallon allotment of gas.
Local craftsmen might be able to kludge together bicycles. But
they'll be functional and not fast, comfortable, or stylish.
Just my thoughts. I don't have a crystal ball obviously.
John
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John Mayson <jo...@mayson.us>
Austin, Texas, USA
It would have to be a remarkably sudden crash. If the world's supply
of oil dried up that fast, I doubt the immediate bicycle-building
capacity of the US would even register. And for less apocalyptic
scenarios, don't forget about all those neglected bikes sitting unused
in garages and basements across the land.
--Mike
I wouldn't expect a sudden crash unless something else was involved
like a major war interrupting oil shipments. I think it's going to be
gradual and most Americans will be hanging on their steering wheels
until the bitter end.
Just to be clear. I'm not contradicting myself. I personally expect
a disaster in slow motion. My initial comments were if it were to
happen quickly, which I don't honestly expect.
This is of course classic economics. The peak oil people would argue that the world of less energy will find many of these rules upended. It takes a lot of energy to make stuff, and when energy is in short supply (or very costly), a lot of stuff won't get made, regardless of demand. Hence old stuff that is still useful will be valuable.
In that still hypothetical world, a classic bike might have no more value than a purely utilitarian one, less perhaps.
You don't think we're in the middle of the slow-motion disaster
already, then? Have you got cousins named Pangloss? ;-)
--Mike
I think we are! Most of us just don't know it yet.
John
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Check out Better Place's charging infrastructure
(http://www.betterplace.com/solution/charging/), being built in Israel
and Denmark currently. Note that they include battery switching
stations as part of the infrastructure. This cuts the "recharging"
time to less time than it takes to fill a gas tank. The drivers own
the cars, but not the batteries. In other words, it's the battery
that replaces the fuel, rather than the charge. This makes the range
of a single charge unimportant, because it doesn't limit the distance
of an uninterrupted journey any more than a gasoline engine.
With the right infrastructure, electric vehicles will be strictly more
convenient than internal combustion, and the technology exists
already. Still, there are benefits to bicycles, even for everyday
transportation (size, cost, reliability, simplicity of maintenance,
health) that no electric car could top, no matter how efficient it
gets.
--Mike
The problems are: Electric cars will compete with other industrial and
domestic electrical needs. Transferring a large proportion of
electricity to transportation will drive up demand and prices
considerably for all users. Much more importantly, the problem with
cars is not just the fuel, it's the unsustainable infrastructure
required to support them. Dense, walkable, bike-able urban
neighborhoods well-served by public transit are the better long-term
solution.
As far as nuclear goes, you have to factor in the additional carbon
emitted by other sources during the 20+ years it takes to design,
permit and build a nuclear plant.
With Passive House we can reduce demand to ~9 kBtu/ft2/year of source
energy. (For heating and all other domestic uses including plug loads,
and that's before adding any on-site generated electricity like PV.)
That's about 10% of the energy used by typical houses. It works for
commercial buildings as well. IOW, we can meet the 2025 target of the
2030 Challenge today.
Rob in Seattle
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I'll jump in with a couple comments. Being a green architect and certified Passive House consultant, I'm pretty involved in the energy issue. Here in Seattle, the Mayor, City Council, and many folks are thinking seriously about the relationship between climate change and transportation. (I participated in the Climate Neutral Seattle unconference, for example: <http://www.grist.org/article/2010-04-06-the-seattle-project/>. City Council has declared its intention to make Seattle the first carbon-neutral city in North America.) Setting aside issues of grid-interconnectedness, etc., about 60% of our carbon emissions come from transportation--a higher proportion than elsewhere--because our electricity comes mainly from hydro. So electric cars often come up as a proposed solution.
The problems are: Electric cars will compete with other industrial and domestic electrical needs. Transferring a large proportion of electricity to transportation will drive up demand and prices considerably for all users. Much more importantly, the problem with cars is not just the fuel, it's the unsustainable infrastructure required to support them. Dense, walkable, bike-able urban neighborhoods well-served by public transit are the better long-term solution.
As far as nuclear goes, you have to factor in the additional carbon emitted by other sources during the 20+ years it takes to design, permit and build a nuclear plant.
With Passive House we can reduce demand to ~9 kBtu/ft2/year of source energy. (For heating and all other domestic uses including plug loads, and that's before adding any on-site generated electricity like PV.) That's about 10% of the energy used by typical houses. It works for commercial buildings as well. IOW, we can meet the 2025 target of the 2030 Challenge today.
Rob in Seattle
On Jun 1, 2010, at 7:19 AM, Michael Richters wrote:
With the right infrastructure, electric vehicles will be strictly more
convenient than internal combustion, and the technology exists
already. Still, there are benefits to bicycles, even for everyday
transportation (size, cost, reliability, simplicity of maintenance,
health) that no electric car could top, no matter how efficient it
gets.
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And as for making money, if they succeed in making something that
consumers (and governments) like better, and costs them less, the
other manufacturers will have no choice but to follow suit. Israel
may be a bit of a special case, but if their plan succeeds, they won't
be importing oil any more in just ten years.
--Mike
--Mike
Important to note that "Passive House" is not the same as "Passive
Solar," though Passive House does take advantage of the sun to heat,
and takes the sun into account in shading to prevent overheating. The
standard was developed by a German, who called it Passivhaus. The
relatively recent US branch of the Passive House Institute decided to
translate that as Passive House, which causes no end of confusion.
Rob in Seattle, who just watched the new owner of his motorcycle ride
away, and is now fossil-fuel-free. (Bittersweet, that.)
The concept still works. One of the first Passive Houses in the US is in northern Minnesota. (There have only been six or seven built in the US so far, whereas there are 15,000 in Europe.) There is some discussion as to whether the standard should be relaxed for more-northern climes. <http://www.buildinggreen.com/auth/article.cfm/2010/3/31/Passive-House-Arrives-in-North-America-Could-It-Revolutionize-the-Way-We-Build/> In Seattle, a furnace is not necessary. In Minneapolis, supplemental heat would be. The mechanical consultant with whom we are working on our current Passive House project lives in Duluth. I can connect you with him, if you ever get to that point. :)
Important to note that "Passive House" is not the same as "Passive Solar," though Passive House does take advantage of the sun to heat, and takes the sun into account in shading to prevent overheating. The standard was developed by a German, who called it Passivhaus. The relatively recent US branch of the Passive House Institute decided to translate that as Passive House, which causes no end of confusion.
Rob in Seattle, who just watched the new owner of his motorcycle ride away, and is now fossil-fuel-free. (Bittersweet, that.)
On Jun 1, 2010, at 7:53 AM, Ken Freeman wrote:
Thank you, Rob, my assumption has been that little would change other than the vehicles and their fuel cycle.
Has anyone analyzed Passive House as set in a more severe environment than Seattle, such as an upper Midwestern city with a lot more cold weather, as well as hotter hots? Does the concept still work?
And will my new house have room for 8 bikes (back to bikes again, finally!)?
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I understand that everyone wants to "look on the bright side", but the
end of oil has no bright side. It will bring war, starvation, and
death. Nothing is going to replace the 200/1 energy ratio of oil. It
was a free lunch of cosmic proportions, and we have been living at the
buffet table like it will never close.
--
R.R.
Ken Freeman wrote:
> But is there an irritation factor? Many people in the United States like
> vehicles that can go 600 miles without a fuel stop when necessary. OEMs
> make design decisions based on what they think are irritation factors as
> much as on the technical merits of a solution.
Most cars are built with fuel tanks that will carry them at most 300 miles.
--
Neil Schneider velor...@gmail.com
http://www.velorambler.com
"Work to eat, eat to live, live to bike, bike to work." -- Naomi Bloom
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Do you mean George W. Bush? The other guy's a brewer.
> made during a recent news conference implying that electric cars
> were a viable possibility. What good would that do? The best have a
> range of 200 miles with a half-ton battery. It would only be usable
> for light, short commutes, local errands and…hurry home to plug it
> in.
What proportion of commutes are less than 200 miles round trip?
Do you have any evidence to back up this claim? I believe cost of
ownership data provided by Consumer Reports contradicts your claim
rather strongly.
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I would guess that the reason for this is that your truck is built to
carry a rather heavy payload in addition to the passengers, whereas
the small cars do not expect this. The lighter the vehicle, the less
heavy-duty the suspension needs to be for it to endure the same abuse
-- most of the wear on the suspension comes from the weight of the
vehicle (unless we're talking about a bicycle, of course). The only
reason heavier vehicles (trucks and SUVs) last longer is because
they're built with even heavier-duty suspensions, because they're
expected to be driven off-road or on poor-quality roads more.
Passenger cars also tend to have suspensions that are designed to
optimize ride comfort, rather than length of life.
Electric cars can actually be mechanically much simpler than ones with
internal combustion engines, because they just need two or four
electric motors. For instance, there's no need for a driveshaft. Or
and engine. When all's said and done, they should be simpler and
require less maintenance than gasoline-powered vehicles. The real
stumbling blocks are a battery that works well in the cold (and isn't
too heavy) and a heating system that doesn't rely on waste heat from
combustion. The idea that lighter vehicles are inherently less
durable than heavier ones is ridiculous. It is true, however, that
machines with fewer moving parts tend to be more reliable and durable
than similar machines with more moving parts, and all-electric cars
should win big on that score.
--Mike
Electric does not have to be small. It probably will continue for a
long time to be primarily short range. However, most trips are short
range, especially commutes.
And as far as those overweight people are concerned, I don't see cycling
as an option for many of those, do you?
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Since it currently takes longer than 5 minutes to pump gas, doesn't
this mean that current gas stations also need 21 or more pumps?
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Ken Freeman wrote:
>
> If the battery pack weighs comparable to an engine/transmission, and if it's
> to be replaced in high volume (several thousand per day as you suggest), yes
> the facililty must be large, have significant automation, and pay major
> attention to material handling and storage. Let's say 3000 cars must be
> serviced in 12 hours, an average of 250/hour.
This is a ridiculous assumption on it's face. If a gas station had to service
this kind of volume it would require a tanker every two hours. Realistically
they get gas deliveries once or twice a month. So instead of 250/hour figure
250 every two weeks. Now it doesn't look like such a logistical nightmare.
This is what's known as a straw man argument.
With tongue firmly planted in cheek, I’m waiting for the ultimate EV range extender. A gas/diesel motor/generator set on a towed trailer. You know someone will do it.
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> wrote: > > Most roads in the US are bad, if you live up North, > > getting worse every year. My F150 pickup truck can take the abuse. > > Sorry, Garth, but your F150 CAUSES the abuse. > > Road surface damage goes as the cube of wheel weight. Edmunds claims > that a 2010 F150 weighs 6450 pounds. I'll randomly pick a large, > fast, safe, high-performance, capable, AWD station wagon for > comparison: the Subaru Outback weighs 4585 lbs. That means that you > are personally responsible for 6450^3/4585^3 = 2.7 times as much road > damage as the Outback per mile. Compared to a Prius (at 3042 lbs), > you create potholes at almost 10 times the rate. If we restricted > SUVs and trucks, we wouldn't have nearly as many potholes, and we > could cut taxes substantially since road maintenance costs would > plummet. > > At the very least, I think we could tax vehicles based on weight and > put the costs into road repair in a fair and equitable manner. And > increase those taxes until there is enough money to really keep the > potholes under control so people CAN drive cars. > > What do you think? I think you're going to throw out numbers ,at least be correct about them. My 2WD regular cab F150 has a curb weight of about 4100lbs. It weighs about the same, or less than most minivans. Less than many SUV's. Not a whole lot more than a Outback wagon. I drive about 3000 miles a year. Where in your equation does miles driven factor in? You see where this is going ? ...... "create potholes at almost 10 times the rate" ? Where does this come from ? "restrict/tax SUV's and trucks"? . . . good luck with that one. What about small business and delivery trucks, commercial trucks etc. ? Try to restrict/tax those. America runs on the OTR trucker. The OTR road trucker is already highly taxed. Why are roads so bad? It's a combination of weather, traffic, engineering and maintenance . You cannot control the weather or traffic. Roads could be engineered better. Roads could be maintained better. In a perfect world, the roads could be built better and maintained more frequently. Roads are worse than ever. I remember how road crews used to seal cracks on roads. I never see that anymore, they wait until the road is completely falling apart, then do a completed resurface.... which these days only lasts a few years because of poor materials and/or workmanship.. Who's to blame for this? Where does the finger point? .... That's what we all want isn't it? .... Someone to blame? This is the ultimate failure of humans .........The blame game has no end...... and no one wants to admit it. Blame away ..... blame away until one day we see it's reflection in a mirror and it is us. You and me. In a perfect world we could all be 5'10" and drive a small, light car that has limitless range and did not pollute. In a perfect world we'd have better laid out cities and effective public transportation. In a perfect world there would be ultimate co-operation. In a perfect world ..... you see ...... the list goes on forever and ever. It's the best tasting pie in the sky we will never consume. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Bicycle Lifestyle" group. To post to this group, send email to bicyclel...@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to bicyclelifesty...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/bicyclelifestyle?hl=en.
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I just got my registration in the mail here in CA & there is actually
a weight surcharge on it. I don't recall this being there last year
but it may have been. My bill is higher than it was last year but CA
has been raising taxes & fees so the increase could have been
somewhere else. I believe the extra charge was about $100 for the
coming year on my '07 NIssan Titan 4x4 that weighs around 5,700 lbs.
I'd guess the weight charge applies only to commercial vehicles (which
pickups are in CA) and not to passenger vehicles.
Robert "$500 this year to register" Tilley
San Diego, CA
Peter, you wanted an electronic water cooler- looks like you got it!
IMHO, I don't think we'll ever see public battery swap stations in common use for electric cars, even though all the technology exists now. Battery swapping is commonly used in industrial settings for fork lifts and similiar devices.
I agree that on a large scale it would be a logistical nightmare.
To me, a more likely scenario is for battery-powered vehicles with on-board chargers to be plugged into electrical outlets in car parks, much the same as block heaters are now in cities where winter temps are often below zero F. I suspect that the power supplied to such outlets will be paid for by the user who will insert money or a pay card into a meter to start the juice flowing. If it is profitable to provide charging points like this, the infrastructure will be developed & PDQ.
Electric battery operated scooters are proliferating, even in unlikely places and I feel that simple little electric cars (already on the market) will increase greatly in numbers as well.
To me the main barrier to increased use of electric cars is the obsession for complexity of the big manufacturers. The GM "Volt" concept is a case in point. A practical electric car does not have to be high-tech, complicated, or expensive, even in the 21st century.
I think that bicycle transportation is the right solution for perhaps 15% of road users. I am very skeptical about urban "bike share" schemes but if they work, I think I could be open minded about them.
Electrically assisted bicycles are huge in Europe at the moment and might have a future in North America too, even though I don't like them much. I test rode a Honda Racoon nearly 20 years ago but was not much impressed by it.
John Alldredge --- On Tue, 6/8/10, Ken Freeman <kenfre...@gmail.com> wrote: |
|