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Why It Will Never Be 1984 (or 2007) Again

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Zobovor

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Nov 26, 2016, 10:26:00 PM11/26/16
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I've observed that toy manufacturers occasionally manage to catch lighting in a bottle. I don't think they can ever predict with certainty which toys will end up becoming the hot new must-have product of the season, since it depends largely upon the whims of the consumers. What I do know is that on the rare occasions that they find themselves with a smash hit on their hands, they will always try, and fail, to recapture the magic.

This year's runaway hit are a toy called Hatchimals, which are electronic animals that literally hatch from an egg, so you don't know precisely what style or color you're going to get until it pops out. Apparently there are specific things you can do to "incubate" it until it hatches, after which you can take care of it, teach it to dance, etc. They were only just barely released at the beginning of October and they're already in huge demand. My store only got 28 of them for the Black Friday sale (and by Black Friday, of course, I mean Thanksgiving) and we had to create an impromptu queue line just to manage the crowd of people who wanted one.

Prior to the sale, we've been having trouble ordering them for weeks. They retail for $50 but people have been gobbling them up to resell them on eBay for $150. That's an easy c-note. I think Spinmaster genuinely didn't realize how popular these were going to be. Of course, next year you just know they will be available in huge quantities. They'll do variations on a theme——Mini Hatchimals, perhaps, or Hatchimal Twins. By next season, of course, kids will have already moved on to the next big craze. Spinmaster will have already missed their window of opportunity.

This year another item that's in popular demand is the NES Classic, which is a miniature version of the original 8-bit Nintendo hardwired with about 30 games from the 1980's and 1990's (no more blowing on cartridges!). Conceptually it's no different from the retro Atari and Coleco and IntelliVision systems that have been widely available since last year, but the oldskool NES strikes a particular nostalgia chord in people. It retails for $60 but people have been successfully reselling them for $200-250. I actually managed to get one, if only because I knew when our store was receiving a small shipment. (Before you cry foul, I left work for the day and then returned about six hours later to buy one.) I was lucky, because we haven't been able to receive them since. I already own nine of the games that are built-in (my original NES is still fully operational despite being 27 years old) but I would definitely spend more than the $60 I paid to try to track down cartridge versions of Donkey Kong and Kid Icarus and Kirby's Adventure and Pac-Man and a few others that I've always wanted to play and own. (On a nearly irrelevant note, I hope they come up with an S-NES Classic some day!)

Last year, the hot toy of the Christmas season was Pie Face, a fairly unremarkable board game in which kids get slapped in the face with whipped cream. People called the store every day for it, just like they have been this hear with the stupid Hatchimals, and we usually sold out the day we got shipments of the game back in stock. (There was also an issue when an employee from my store who does not work in the toy department calling local radio station and bragging that we were the only store in town that had Pie Face in stock, which created a huge issue. But that's neither here nor there.) This year, there's a new edition of the game called Pie Face Showdown, and I'm sure it's Hasbro's intent to capitalize off the expected demand... only the demand just isn't there this year. I've had no trouble keeping either edition of the game in stock. Nobody wants to get splattered in the face this year, it seems. (Insert thinly-veiled innuendo here.)

Wait, one more example! Surely everybody remembers the Tickle Me Elmo craze from 1996, yes? It was released by Tyco, which doesn't even exist anymore, if that gives you any idea how long ago this was. The license to produce Sesame Street toys has passed through the hands of Mattel and then Hasbro since that time, and every single year, like clockwork, they've tried to catch lightning in a bottle a second time with some new random variation of Elmo. They've tried everything under the sun, including this year's offering, a smartphone-compatible toy that you can program with your child's name, favorite colors, etc. so that Elmo's responses are personalized and customizable. That's arguably much cooler than a stupid red Muppet who just goes "hoo-hoo-hee-hee-that-tickles" incessantly, but there's zero demand for the toy.

Okay, now to finally bring this around to Transformers. While not the first mass-produced robot action figure toy line on the market (Tonka beat Hasbro to the punch with the GoBots toy line), Transformers was arguably the most popular. They were the must-have Christmas toy of 1984, with stores selling out everywhere. This was long before the days of the online marketplace, so it wasn't just a matter of people reselling stuff on eBay. I would imagine that the vast majority of the toys were in the hands of children on December 25th, which may not have been be the case with last year's Pie Face or this year's Hatchimals (there are probably going to be hundreds or thousands of stubborn scalpers with dollar signs in their eyes who will end up sitting on their wares until it's too late to unload them before December 25th).

With regard to Transformers, Hasbro had a huge hit on their hands and they knew it. They had another year's worth of product lined up for 1985, had a theatrical movie in the works, and were able to ride the coattails of that first year's success for another seven years despite flagging sales and the introduction of hot new licenses like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Transformers essentially remained a sleeper hit until 2007 when the advent of the live-action movie thrust it back into the limelight. The public perception was that the 1980's phenomenon known as Transformers was finally back after a long hiatus, despite its continued presence in toy stores in the form of Generation 2, Beast Wars, Beast Machines, etc.

2007 was a boon to the brand, bringing in unprecedented sales and profits rivaling nearly the introduction of the license some 23 years previously. Toy aisles were completely cleaned out of Transformers, with a particular demand for the Bumblebee character, for the first time in decades. It's been almost ten years now since the first live-action movie and we're gearing up for movie five in the series, with many more planned. Despite this, sales of the movie toys have steadily been in decline, and box office sales have failed to surpass the original Michael Bay film. Hasbro has restructured the entire toy line around the movie releases, despite the fact that they've been completely unable to recapture the excitement of the first film.

It's actually a surprise to me that Hasbro got their 2007 at all. It took a complete reinvention of the brand to force it back into the spotlight, something that's been attempted countless times (in recent years, we got live-action movies based on Scooby-Doo and Smurfs and Garfield, but nothing that propelled them into mainstream success). I'm actually surprised that Transformers managed it, honestly. I mean, look at G.I. Joe. Rather than being a necessary shot in the arm, the live-action films were essentially a last gasp, and now the brand doesn't have a presence in the toy aisles at all. And let's not even mention Jem!

Hasbro will continue to introduce variations to Transformers in an effort to keep the brand fresh and relevant, and in tapping into consumer nostalgia with Combiner Wars and Titans Return, they seem to have found their niche for the time being. It's likely that it will never take the top spot as the must-have holiday toy again, though. Lightning only strikes twice!


Zob (my word for entitled customers who demand Hatchimals this Christmas season is, naturally, "snatchimals")

Gustavo Wombat

unread,
Nov 27, 2016, 6:50:03 AM11/27/16
to
Zobovor <zm...@aol.com> wrote:
> I've observed that toy manufacturers occasionally manage to catch
> lighting in a bottle. I don't think they can ever predict with certainty
> which toys will end up becoming the hot new must-have product of the
> season, since it depends largely upon the whims of the consumers. What I
> do know is that on the rare occasions that they find themselves with a
> smash hit on their hands, they will always try, and fail, to recapture the magic.

I expect that the failed effort to recapture the magic has a pretty
predictable success rate -- the toy is generally popular but not a break
out hit on the recapture run, which is a lot easier to plan around than
Mighty Fart Demons, a new franchise that might be very successful or a
complete failure.

> This year's runaway hit are a toy called Hatchimals, which are electronic
> animals that literally hatch from an egg, so you don't know precisely
> what style or color you're going to get until it pops out. Apparently
> there are specific things you can do to "incubate" it until it hatches,
> after which you can take care of it, teach it to dance, etc.

At least with cats you know what color you're going to get...

> Last year, the hot toy of the Christmas season was Pie Face,

In DC Comics, Pie Face was Green Lantern Hal Jordan's mechanic in his day
job as a test pilot. He was called Pie Face because he was Eskimo, and they
have flat, round faces, and it was just a racial slur.

I don't know whether Eskimo Pies are also named after the racial slur.

> Wait, one more example! Surely everybody remembers the Tickle Me Elmo
> craze from 1996, yes? It was released by Tyco, which doesn't even exist
> anymore, if that gives you any idea how long ago this was. The license
> to produce Sesame Street toys has passed through the hands of Mattel and
> then Hasbro since that time, and every single year, like clockwork,
> they've tried to catch lightning in a bottle a second time with some new
> random variation of Elmo. They've tried everything under the sun,
> including this year's offering, a smartphone-compatible toy that you can
> program with your child's name, favorite colors, etc. so that Elmo's
> responses are personalized and customizable. That's arguably much cooler
> than a stupid red Muppet who just goes "hoo-hoo-hee-hee-that-tickles"
> incessantly, but there's zero demand for the toy.

I bet as people,realize they cannot get the toy their kid wants, parents
will remember Tickle Me Elmo, and buy this towards the last minute. Either
that, or Grope Me Grover.


> 2007 was a boon to the brand, bringing in unprecedented sales and profits
> rivaling nearly the introduction of the license some 23 years previously.
> Toy aisles were completely cleaned out of Transformers, with a
> particular demand for the Bumblebee character, for the first time in
> decades. It's been almost ten years now since the first live-action
> movie and we're gearing up for movie five in the series, with many more
> planned. Despite this, sales of the movie toys have steadily been in
> decline, and box office sales have failed to surpass the original Michael
> Bay film. Hasbro has restructured the entire toy line around the movie
> releases, despite the fact that they've been completely unable to
> recapture the excitement of the first film.

I think they would have to kill the current movie line to get anything big
and exciting again. The movie lines are too dominate but not good. But, a
predictable seller may be way better than a surprise hit -- it's too late
to make more at that point.

I do think Transformers has the possibility for another major resurgence --
the line is reinvented every few years, and the idea behind changing robots
into vehicles is a perennial favorite. Put some money into the cartoon, and
maybe create a game.

The reinvention would have to be a pretty big departure. Maybe a
Masterforcey story with an emphasis on human characters. Or an allegory
about illegal immigrants...

> It's actually a surprise to me that Hasbro got their 2007 at all. It
> took a complete reinvention of the brand to force it back into the
> spotlight, something that's been attempted countless times (in recent
> years, we got live-action movies based on Scooby-Doo and Smurfs and
> Garfield, but nothing that propelled them into mainstream success). I'm
> actually surprised that Transformers managed it, honestly. I mean, look
> at G.I. Joe. Rather than being a necessary shot in the arm, the
> live-action films were essentially a last gasp, and now the brand doesn't
> have a presence in the toy aisles at all. And let's not even mention Jem!

Had The GI Joe movie kept the costumes and embraced the campiness of the
original, perhaps becoming a musical in the process, I think it would have
been beloved by everyone but GI Joe fans



--
I wish I was a mole in the ground.

Zobovor

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Nov 27, 2016, 7:14:48 PM11/27/16
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On Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 4:50:03 AM UTC-7, Gustavo Wombat, of the Seattle Wombats wrote:

> I expect that the failed effort to recapture the magic has a pretty
> predictable success rate -- the toy is generally popular but not a break
> out hit on the recapture run.

I think there are a lot of perennial toys out there which are only still being sold today because they were once huge hits, and that's always in the back of the minds of retailers. Etch-A-Sketch was introduced in 1960. Rubik's Cube was the biggest toy of 1980. Cabbage Patch Kids were the runaway success of 1983. Furby was a huge hit in 1998. All of these toys are still on shelves today, having proven their success exactly once.

I wonder how many toys would survive today if they were required to prove themselves all over again?

> I bet as people,realize they cannot get the toy their kid wants, parents
> will remember Tickle Me Elmo, and buy this towards the last minute. Either
> that, or Grope Me Grover.

Given that this is the age of Donald Trump and his grabbing-women-by-the-thing tactics, this is a toy that needs to happen.

> I do think Transformers has the possibility for another major resurgence --
> the line is reinvented every few years, and the idea behind changing robots
> into vehicles is a perennial favorite.

I think there has to be a surprise factor, though. The biggest hits are the ones that nobody really expects or are prepared for. Transformers already has a decent market share these days, so it wouldn't really be capable of the "wow" factor required to be a runaway hit again. The toy line would have to go away for, like, 20 years and then suddenly it would be this brand-new, exciting thing for a whole different generation.

> Had the GI Joe movie kept the costumes and embraced the campiness of the
> original, perhaps becoming a musical in the process, I think it would have
> been beloved by everyone but GI Joe fans.

Shipwreck and company singing songs by the Village People? I could get behind that.


Zob (not literally)

Gustavo Wombat

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Nov 28, 2016, 6:55:52 AM11/28/16
to
Zobovor <zm...@aol.com> wrote:
> On Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 4:50:03 AM UTC-7, Gustavo Wombat, of the
> Seattle Wombats wrote:
>
>> I expect that the failed effort to recapture the magic has a pretty
>> predictable success rate -- the toy is generally popular but not a break
>> out hit on the recapture run.
>
> I think there are a lot of perennial toys out there which are only still
> being sold today because they were once huge hits, and that's always in
> the back of the minds of retailers. Etch-A-Sketch was introduced in
> 1960. Rubik's Cube was the biggest toy of 1980. Cabbage Patch Kids were
> the runaway success of 1983. Furby was a huge hit in 1998. All of these
> toys are still on shelves today, having proven their success exactly once.
>
> I wonder how many toys would survive today if they were required to prove
> themselves all over again?

I really think you're missing something here. The old has-been toys do
prove themselves year after year.

Rubik's Cube sales this year are likely to be within 10% of the Rubik's
Cube sales for last year -- which means the toy company churns out
basically exactly as many as needed, with minimal risk of overproducing or
underproducing. It's a pretty straightforward revenue stream.

Sales for the Morbidly Obese Middle Managers toyline, on the other hand,
are a complete unknown. If it is successful, it will be underproduced. If
it is unsuccessful, they will litter the shelves for months, and future
waves won't get bought or will go straight to the discount stores. More
toylines fail than succeed, so the hot new line has to cover the cost of
the company's failed lines.

That straightforward and consistent revenue stream is looking pretty good
after the failure of a couple of lines.


>> I bet as people,realize they cannot get the toy their kid wants, parents
>> will remember Tickle Me Elmo, and buy this towards the last minute. Either
>> that, or Grope Me Grover.
>
> Given that this is the age of Donald Trump and his
> grabbing-women-by-the-thing tactics, this is a toy that needs to happen.

Grover needs a cat.

>> I do think Transformers has the possibility for another major resurgence --
>> the line is reinvented every few years, and the idea behind changing robots
>> into vehicles is a perennial favorite.
>
> I think there has to be a surprise factor, though. The biggest hits are
> the ones that nobody really expects or are prepared for. Transformers
> already has a decent market share these days, so it wouldn't really be
> capable of the "wow" factor required to be a runaway hit again. The toy
> line would have to go away for, like, 20 years and then suddenly it would
> be this brand-new, exciting thing for a whole different generation.

The Movieverse styles are so distinctive that a new style could make them
seem fresh. Imagine if there were a Pixar movie, like Cars, but they
transformed. Very, very different, and different enough to succeed with a
new audience.

>> Had the GI Joe movie kept the costumes and embraced the campiness of the
>> original, perhaps becoming a musical in the process, I think it would have
>> been beloved by everyone but GI Joe fans.
>
> Shipwreck and company singing songs by the Village People? I could get behind that.

Absolutely. People would love it. Add in a few "don't ask don't tell"
jokes, and it's a winner.

> Zob (not literally)

Zobovor

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Nov 29, 2016, 9:15:10 PM11/29/16
to
On Monday, November 28, 2016 at 4:55:52 AM UTC-7, Gustavo Wombat, of the Seattle Wombats wrote:

> Sales for the Morbidly Obese Middle Managers toyline, on the other hand,
> are a complete unknown. If it is successful, it will be underproduced. If
> it is unsuccessful, they will litter the shelves for months, and future
> waves won't get bought or will go straight to the discount stores. More
> toylines fail than succeed, so the hot new line has to cover the cost of
> the company's failed lines.

Hmm, I wasn't really thinking about the big picture. I was thinking of the success of individual toys, not the toy company as a whole. You're right, though. An unsuccessful toy venture represents a loss of profits for the company.

I suspect this is why there are so very few true innovations in the marketplace. Any time there's something hugely successful, the toy manufacturers keep trying variations on the same theme, hoping consumers will continue to gobble it up. Meanwhile, imitators come up with their own versions in an attempt to capitalize off the popularity of the original product.

> The Movieverse styles are so distinctive that a new style could make them
> seem fresh. Imagine if there were a Pixar movie, like Cars, but they
> transformed. Very, very different, and different enough to succeed with a
> new audience.

That sounds like a very kiddified take on Transformers. Which wouldn't be inherently terrible, I guess.


Zob (my son and I just watched an episode of Teen Titans Go! where Cyborg transformed into a truck and called himself Cyborgimus Prime)

Gustavo Wombat

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Nov 30, 2016, 2:18:18 AM11/30/16
to
Or go the Disney direction and make it an animated musical. Would you not
love a flanged Soundwave's monotone song?

I haven't had this much fun in years,
The cries and screams are music to my ears.
I can hear a fly sneeze, or a dog wheeze,
I can hear a flea leap, or a nanobot beep.
And no one will ever know the secrets I find
As I monitor your electrical impulses to read your mind.
No one will know, that is, if you do something for me,
A small thing, a mere trifle, I'm sure you will agree.
What Megatron doesn't know will not hurt him.

Ok, I can't really imagine that being successful for any audience.



> Zob (my son and I just watched an episode of Teen Titans Go! where Cyborg
> transformed into a truck and called himself Cyborgimus Prime)
>



No One In Particular

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Nov 30, 2016, 9:05:31 PM11/30/16
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On 11/30/2016 1:18 AM, Gustavo Wombat wrote:
> Zobovor <zm...@aol.com> wrote:

>
> Or go the Disney direction and make it an animated musical. Would you not
> love a flanged Soundwave's monotone song?
>
> I haven't had this much fun in years,
> The cries and screams are music to my ears.
> I can hear a fly sneeze, or a dog wheeze,
> I can hear a flea leap, or a nanobot beep.
> And no one will ever know the secrets I find
> As I monitor your electrical impulses to read your mind.
> No one will know, that is, if you do something for me,
> A small thing, a mere trifle, I'm sure you will agree.
> What Megatron doesn't know will not hurt him.
>
> Ok, I can't really imagine that being successful for any audience.
>
>


It just needs a catchy hook and a memorable refrain. It could work...

Brian

Optim_1

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Dec 2, 2016, 12:38:39 AM12/2/16
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On Saturday, 26 November 2016 22:26:00 UTC-5, Zobovor wrote:
>
> This year another item that's in popular demand is the NES Classic, which is a miniature version of the original 8-bit Nintendo hardwired with about 30 games from the 1980's and 1990's (no more blowing on cartridges!). Conceptually it's no different from the retro Atari and Coleco and IntelliVision systems that have been widely available since last year, but the oldskool NES strikes a particular nostalgia chord in people. It retails for $60 but people have been successfully reselling them for $200-250. I actually managed to get one, if only because I knew when our store was receiving a small shipment. (Before you cry foul, I left work for the day and then returned about six hours later to buy one.) I was lucky, because we haven't been able to receive them since. I already own nine of the games that are built-in (my original NES is still fully operational despite being 27 years old) but I would definitely spend more than the $60 I paid to try to track down cartridge versions of Donkey Kong and Kid Icarus and Kirby's Adventure and Pac-Man and a few others that I've always wanted to play and own. (On a nearly irrelevant note, I hope they come up with an S-NES Classic some day!)
>

The Virtual Console in the Wii is vastly superior to the NES Classic. Nearly every NES classic is on there, including the three games that you want to play, and for 5$ per game you can build your own personal NES library. And it is not limited to the NES, but also quality games from SNES, Genesis, N64, TurboGrapx 16 and Neo Geo including games that were exclusive to Japan only. Games can be bought between 5-10$ each.

I have a Mayflash controller that allows me to hook up my original NES and SNES controllers to the Virtual Console. It is excellent. The retro feel of these games are 100% complete, so no need for the limiting NES Classic.

Why people would buy the NES Classic, when the Virtual Console is available, boggles the mind.

Zobovor

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Dec 2, 2016, 1:48:43 AM12/2/16
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On Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 10:38:39 PM UTC-7, Optim_1 wrote:

> Why people would buy the NES Classic, when the Virtual Console is available,
> boggles the mind.

By my calculations, it would cost around $110 to build a library on the Virtual Console equivalent to the built-in games on the NES Classic (plus another $20 or so to get the Mayflash adapter you mentioned). So, price is one consideration.

Convenience is another. The NES Classic can plug into any of the three televisions we have in the house. Playing the same games on the Virtual Console would require using the Wii and dominating the TV in the living room.

Also, what happens when the Virtual Console is no longer available on the Wii? They shut down the built-in weather and news apps for the Wii in 2013 and terminated the online multiplayer function in 2014. Virtual Console could be the next thing to go. At least with the NES Classic, I own a piece of hardware that isn't dependent upon an online server to exist.


Zob (not being argumentative, just pragmatic)
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