10:25
Weatherlawyer
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.
10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
Pity.
However those that remained alert were able to take appropriate steps
and save both themselves and their families. The odd thing was that
those most at variance with the sophisticated academic vision of
elementary geophysics fared better that those too wrapped up in their
own cleverness to do anything about it.
Meanwhile, for the next spell:
April 20th to 28th the lunar phase occurs at 10:25. And that puts it
into the same league as the spell for 14th to 21st Mar 10:46.
So more of the same, which IIRC stated last time with a storm east of
Australia. I believe that faded when an stronger one on the other side
started.
And all sorts of nasty things occurred in the south eastern states of
the US&A.
Look out for a large High confluence in the NE Pacific. It could
extend to the North Pole but is likely to be cut through by a trough
of low pressure.
So...
Here's to interesting times. And always remember:
You are on your own.
Weatherlawyer
Here is one I prepared earlier:
On Mar 14, 12:30 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Mar 13, 11:11 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > 14th to 21st March 2008. The time of the phase is 10:46. Which is
> > similar to the last phase, in that it should provide anticyclonic
> > weather.
>
> > However things are not working out that way so far.
>
> So here we are 5 minutes into a new spell and things are looking
> exactly the same as they did at the start of the last:
> http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
>
> I don't know what's going on over Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and
> Louisiana. There is nothing on this site to compare to the yellow
> squares on the above site:
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/
>
> But there is a lot of cyclogenesis (stormy weather) there.
>
> Points to watch out for:
>
> On the NEIC board that lists the dates of recent earthquakes with a
> magnitude over 5:
> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
>
> Look out for a day that reports no such quakes. This is a new thing
> learned so it might contain errors but it seems that when there are
> violent storms due whose potential inner pressures at sea level are
> likely to be as low as the 960's millibars,
>
> .....there is always an hiatus in the list.
>
> I have noticed the hiatus in times past but never made the connection
> until looking at the Aussie site here:
> http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDX0033&...
>
> And following this warning is a much less gentle one where there will
> be two or three consecutive earthquakes on that list that are in
> almost the same place. I am not sure where the first series takes
> place but the same recurs when the storm is over and the following
> seems to apply:
>
> For storms in the South West Indian Ocean, this series seems to be
> Vanuatu some 120 degrees distant.
>
> I expect yet more tropical storms and there is still the residue of
> the storm that passed through Britain last Monday to fade into the
> background too.
>
> That one is at present over Estonia and Latvia, with the one that
> crossed Britain a day or so later about to approach Norway both at 990
> millibars.
>
> I believe that when they reach 1000 to 1005 mb there will be a large,
> maybe a very large earthquake. (As a warning the prelude will be some
> uncertain or plain wrong weather forecasting from the various national
> agencies.)
>
> Well that's the best I can do so far. Good luck to all involved and
> god help the victims. Maybe once the one laptop per child thing gets
> going, they might have a fighting chance. Maybe even grow up to
> respect their environment and stop the illegal logging.
>
> Let's hope they are not subverted with the hopeless inanity of global
> warming whatever else.
Weatherlawyer
http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/
All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the
enticing culture of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms
of pressure.
Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
Weather Data instead of Synoptics...
Or perhaps if we stopped calling them wankers?
The tossers!
Weatherlawyer
>
> I just found the Australian data archive:http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/
>
> All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
> Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the
> enticing culture of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms
> of pressure.
>
> Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
> Weather Data instead of Synoptics...
Forgot to add: 27P has gone.
Weatherlawyer
> FUD.
> Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
> could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
> earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.
>
> 10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
> department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
> Tsunami alert.
I wonder how the people irresponsible for that catastrophe were
treated? If they sacked a man for not killing hundreds of thousands of
people, what could they possibly have done about those that did?
Funny thing in all the follow ups, there were little or no
recriminations.
I imagine in the good old days when the law demanded and eye for an
eye, they'd round up all their families, even the most distant
relatives, all his friends and their families, all the people they did
business with and all their families and execute all them.
And they'd still have come up short.
Weatherlawyer
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm
It's pretty much a “col“ over the rest of the eastern States, as far
as about 100 degrees west, maybe.
Most of Canada is sitting under an High and there are large Highs
either side of the continent.
Their Northern Hemisphere chart is looking slightly different, with a
Low menacing the NE USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
That chart also shows a High and a Low suitably situated in the
northern North Atlantic just right for a spell full of cold weather
this week, never mind what the better educated may think.
The UK has one half decent TV show that deals with agricultural
interests. Mostly it is geared to a children's style magazine hence
the intake for presenters coming from Blue Peter. But what would one
expect from a self contained quango with a penchant for jessies and
drug abusers?
It's the only place on TV -not counting the regional newscasts which
are lax enough in some areas to allow a view of the North Atlantic
chart. Which almost hardly gets used.
For non UK residents, one can get a glimmer of what it used to be like
before modern technology gave us massive improvements:
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane2nc.htm
Allow me to draw your attention to the writing on the screen, Notice
it is in brown and green? And the predominant colours of the
background?
Well the BBC in its majesty has solved such problems as illegibility
by doing away with all things graphic except the background. Instead
it makes do with us having to believe whatever the presenters tell us
to believe whilst they are waving at what looks like spilled porridge.
They won't tell us how much that set up cost.
I do not wonder why.
And since there is obviously no money in it, the independent services
don't even offer what the BBC does. The Met Office must be demanding
outrageous prices for its services. So why doesn't someone approach
the Canucks? Or even the Chimpistanians? They are their satellites,
after all.
Still I suppose nothing better from a government made up of sock
puppets. And one with a leader who has a tatty, large hole in it at
that, darn it!
Meanwhile:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
has a deepening Low situated in the middle of the Atlantic until March
the 8th.
So that should prove interesting, as once March the 8th is past the
Low is scheduled to return..
Or is it?
Weatherlawyer
>
> The Canadian chart is showing a Low over the mid-western USA: >http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&Ru...
>
> It's pretty much a “col“ over the rest of the eastern States, as far
> as about 100 degrees west, maybe.
> Most of Canada is sitting under an High and there are large Highs
> either side of the continent.
>
> Their Northern Hemisphere chart is looking slightly different, with a
> Low menacing the NE USA:
> http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
>
> That chart also shows a High and a Low suitably situated in the
> northern North Atlantic just right for a spell full of cold weather
> this week, never mind what the better educated may think.
This map was interesting as of the date posted:
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
Red flag. That means fire warnings. Right over the longitude where
that met-man drew the lines. Well done him (or her.)
And floods for the NE States and all along the
Misisssssiisiisiispppsi.
More to come yet.
A lot!
Time that monkey spoke to god again I imagine?
Weatherlawyer
>
> This map was interesting as of the date posted:
>http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
>
> Red flag. That means fire warnings. Right over the longitude where
> that met-man drew the lines. Well done him (or her.)
I think that when the data is analysed the actual distances apart will
be more like 15 degrees. That would put it in the same keep as the
Lows that miss Britain by 15 degrees.
The region around the Irish Sea, for instance, will experience far
nicer weather whilst a Low goes past to the north by 15 degrees. Some
other parts of the kingdom will of course be inundated.
Just like in the USA.
I find that sort of thing interesting. Must be because I am a kook.
Weatherlawyer
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?
Weatherlawyer
There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:
5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
Same place.
The storm watchers initially gave that hurricane as two almost
identical Tropical Storms.
Kudos for that bravery to whomever.
Weatherlawyer
> On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
> > 19th April 2008
> > 5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
> > 6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
>
> > Always happens at the end of a storm.
> > How about that?
>
> There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
> moment:
>
> 5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
> Indonesia.
> 5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
> Indonesia.
Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/125_-10.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/170_-20.php
45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any
rational.
Weatherlawyer
> On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
> > > 19th April 2008
> > > 5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
> > > 6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
>
> > > Always happens at the end of a storm.
> > > How about that?
>
> > There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
> > moment:
>
> > 5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
> > Indonesia.
> > 5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
> > Indonesia.
>
> Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
> Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
>
>
> 45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.
Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.
There is a tropical storm warning out for Indonesia. However the FNMOC
WXMAP site put that into perspective:
The pressure would appear as a mere "col" on UK weather maps, however
TC 28S has wind speeds of 48 knots:
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh2808.gif
So there you have it. Next spell starts around the 28th. There is a
massive shift with that, I believe.
Weatherlawyer
> On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > > Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
> > > > 19th April 2008
> > > > 5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
> > > > 6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
>
> > > > Always happens at the end of a storm.
> > > > How about that?
>
> > > There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
> > > moment:
>
> > > 5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
> > > Indonesia.
> > > 5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
> > > Indonesia.
>
> > Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
> > Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:
>
>
> > 45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.
>
> Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
> quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
>
> Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
> 5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
> That is; some 36 hour ago.
An opportunity exists with this phenomenon that enables deeper
analysis of the relationship of quakes to fronts:
4.1 08:08 37.268 71.583 Tajikistan
2.5 07:03 37.470 -118.832 central California
2.5 07:02 61.616 -149.965 southern Alaska
3.7 06:41 43.116 -126.561 off the coast of Oregon
2.8 06:32 33.788 -116.102 southern California
3.9 05:35 43.311 -126.444 off the coast of Oregon
4.0 03:58 43.212 -126.223 off the coast of Oregon
2.5 03:46 60.100 -151.850 kenai peninsula, Alaska
4.1 03:17 42.967 -126.748 off the coast of Oreon
4.9 03:09 -4.393 101.046 southern sumatra, Indonesia
4.6 02:10 13.406 146.281 Mariana Islands region
3.0 01:59 59.461 -152.464 southern Alaska
2.5 01:55 64.717 -146.576 central Alaska
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
With so few quakes it should be possible to guess which storms they
are related to. Note, there could well be a multiplicity of parts.
There are some excellent graphics on here:
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_0.gif
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_gale_0.gif
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.sw_aus_gale_0.gif
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_ind_ocn_gale_0.gif
Weatherlawyer
The other problem of course is that there are two time sequences to
beware of. First of all, initial data from seismographs is almost
instantaneous. Meteorological data requires collation and analysis as
well as being rigidly time stamped.
And it seems to me that the seismic events follow the storm, that is
they occur as the storm dissipates. (Thereafter, in the absence of
storm fronts, there are sequences of aftersahocks. Some of them much
larger than the initial events and not necessarily in the same place.
(There may be a lot of error in our perception of the phenomenon known
as aftershocks.))
> There are some excellent graphics on here:
>
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_ga...
> >https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_ga...
> >https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.sw_aus_ga...
> >https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_ind_oc...
I had to prefix the links with > as a Google mangles a list of such
links otherwise. I wonder if any character would do as well? Or would
that just become a suffix to the preceding link?
Weatherlawyer
Here comes that high again
Filling in the sky like a memory
Filling over-head in the North Pacific
Want to talk about that stalled depression?
Would you rather ignore this session?
Prefer to live in oblivion
Give abrogation to all discussion?
What is it like for you?
Weatherlawyer
Qhttp://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm
I wonder what is going on. Is it a more common phenomenon than
previously realised or is there a glitch in the apparatus?
"The Dvorak technique (developed in 1974 by Vernon Dvorak) is a widely
used system to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based
solely on visible and infrared satellite images.
Several agencies issue Dvorak intensity numbers for cyclones of
sufficient intensity. These include the National Hurricane Center's
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the NOAA/NESDIS
Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at
the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii, and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).
In a developing cyclone, the technique takes advantage of the fact
that cyclones of similar intensity tend to have certain characteristic
features, and as they strengthen, they tend to change in appearance in
a predictable manner.
The structure and organization of the tropical cyclone are tracked
over 24 hours to determine if the storm has weakened, maintained its
intensity, or strengthened. Various central cloud and banding features
are compared with templates that show typical storm patterns and their
associated intensity.
If infrared satellite imagery is available for a cyclone with a
visible eye pattern, then the technique utilizes the difference
between the temperature of the warm eye and the surrounding cold cloud
tops to determine intensity (colder cloud tops generally indicate a
more intense storm).
In each case a "T-number" and a Current Intensity (CI) value are
assigned to the storm. These measurements range between 1 (minimum
intensity) and 8 (maximum intensity). The T-number and CI value are
the same except for weakening storms, in which case the CI is higher.
the list shows:
the Dvorak Number, wind speed in Knots; Pressure Millibars and the two
different ocean basins considered: the Atlantic and the North West
Pacific.
1.0 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858
The National Hurricane Center will often quote Dvorak T-numbers e.g.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has developed the Objective
Dvorak Technique (ODT). This is a modified version of the Dvorak
technique which uses computer algorithms rather than subjective human
interpretation to arrive at a CI number. This is generally not
implemented for tropical depressions or weak tropical storms."
Weatherlawyer
preceded by a two-month series of earthquakes and steam-venting
episodes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens
17 Jan 21:19
24 Jan 13:58
1 Feb 02:21
9 Feb 07:35
16 Feb 08:51
23 Feb 00:14
1 Mar 21:00
9 Mar 23:49
16 Mar 18:56
23 Mar 12:31
31 Mar 15:14
8 Apr 12:06
15 Apr 03:46
22 Apr 02:59
30 Apr 07:35
7 May 20:51
14 May 12:00
21 May 19:16
29 May 21:28
6 Jun 02:53
12 Jun 20:38
20 Jun 12:32
28 Jun 09:02
5 Jul 07:27
12 Jul 06:46
20 Jul 05:51
27 Jul 18:54
3 Aug 12:00
10 Aug 19:09
18 Aug 22:28
26 Aug 03:42
1 Sep 18:08
9 Sep 10:00
17 Sep 13:54
24 Sep 12:08
1 Oct 03:18
9 Oct 02:50
17 Oct 03:47
23 Oct 20:52
30 Oct 16:33
7 Nov 20:43
15 Nov 15:47
22 Nov 06:39
29 Nov 09:59
7 Dec 14:35
15 Dec 01:47
21 Dec 18:08
29 Dec 06:32
The crucial dates are the two phases prior to the eruption on the 18th
May and the phase that broke the spell
May 7 20:51 May 14 12 May 21 19:16.
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases1901.html
The importance of which are that they reflect a certain similarity to
recent dates and more importantly, times.
I included the whole set of dates and times so that anyone interested
enough can make more comparisons.
Weatherlawyer
nothing over 4.9 M. in two days and more.
I suspect that the large high on the North American eastern seaboard
will bleed slowly into the Atlantic via Cape Hatteras and the south
eastern States rather than the Davis Strait, thus leaving the strait
open for that low to the south of Greenland to pass through.
It beats the hell out of me why I am the only person on god's earth
who can see that these highs and lows are interference patterns, the
product of acoustic pressures we are yet to examine.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
What the hell else could they be?
If it were anything the like of what Cleveland Abbe "The Weather Man",
surmised all those years ago, the two pressure areas described above
would interact with each other directly. Would they not?
I hope the one true god sees fit to provide gifts in men in the coming
generations. I'd tear the present load of tossers new arse-holes for
the good it would do scientific enquiry.
What they believe beggars belief.
Weatherlawyer
>
> The crucial dates are the two phases prior to the eruption on the 18th
> May and the phase that broke the spell
> May 7 20:51 May 14 12 May 21 19:16.
>http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases1901.html
> The importance of which are that they reflect a certain similarity to
> recent dates and more importantly, times.
>
> I included the whole set of dates and times so that anyone interested
> enough can make more comparisons.
A pointless exercise given that there is conclusive argument to adjust
the times of these phases for storms. I dare say there are well
documented records of all tropical cyclones for 1980, it's just that
methods are so much different in this century.
Bloody hell! It was nearly 30 years ago.
Weatherlawyer
> It looks like the Andreanof Islands are kicking off again. Still
> nothing over 4.9 M. in two days and more.
>
> I suspect that the large high on the North American eastern seaboard
> will bleed slowly into the Atlantic via Cape Hatteras and the south
> eastern States rather than the Davis Strait, thus leaving the strait
> open for that low to the south of Greenland to pass through.
>
> It beats the hell out of me why I am the only person on god's earth
> who can see that these highs and lows are interference patterns, the
>
> What the hell else could they be?
>
> If it were anything the like of what Cleveland Abbe "The Weather Man",
> surmised all those years ago, the two pressure areas described above
> would interact with each other directly. Would they not?
>
> I hope the one true god sees fit to provide gifts in men in the coming
> generations. I'd tear the present load of tossers new arse-holes for
> the good it would do scientific enquiry.
>
> What they believe beggars belief.
Close but no cigar:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2008/2008041726580.html
Weatherlawyer
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.
Weatherlawyer
Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space > until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=12&st...)
is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?
Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: >http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?
We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:
>http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6391341.html
Best I can do at the moment.
Weatherlawyer
OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)
5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
>http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is.
Weatherlawyer
Just like that Low there in the other spell. >http://
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/tctracks/shem07_8/20p.gif
Weatherlawyer
I left this out f the equations too:
CVGHM reported that seismicity from Anak Krakatau increased during
14-21 April; the number of events per day peaked on 20 April. Ash
plumes accompanied by propelled incandescent rocks were noted during
field observations on 16, 17, and 18 April.
The eruption affected the summit and the E and S flanks. Booming
noises were reported and occasionally heard at an observation post 42
km away. The Alert Level was raised to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21
April.
CVGHM reported that seismicity from Ibu increased during 6-14 April
and remained elevated during 15-20 April. Plumes described as
"eruption smoke" rose to altitude of 1.8-2.1 km (5,900-6,900 ft)
a.s.l. during 12-21 April and were gray during 18-21 April.
The Alert Level was increased to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21 April.
Residents and tourists were not permitted within 2 km of the crater.
>http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20080416#krakatau
Weatherlawyer
Which as it happens is something like 45 degrees from the Xinjiang
region. What was it that was 45 degrees from somewhere interesting
last time?
Unfortunately I need a pedant to follow in my footsteps. I just can't
keep track of things. Pity I can't stand the buggers. They might make
excellent meteorologists and astronomers but they spoil any science
they are given charge of.
Weatherlawyer
Curving around Iceland like a memory
Rinning to earth like hell in motion
I want to walk in the open ground
I want to talk about earthquakes too
I want to dive into the ocean
Is it raining with you
Weatherlawyer
for the last few days has stated to... not so much move east as is the
norm but to extend east.
It has actually extended as far as Scandinavia where there is an
Asiatic High coming the other way. It reaches half way up Greenland
where an High stretching from over most of North America to past the
North Pole, meets it.
It is quite a serious build up of events. If it were a balloon people,
near it might well be looking pensive. But as with such explosions
those inside the pressure area are the least affected.
So where will the earthquake be?
From Earthquake.itgo.com:
PREDICTION Dt. 23rd April '08
Good sunshine day.
Suspect around 6 to 7+M quakes over
KERMAN, IRAN (28.33N 56.33E) - NORTH -CENTRAL IRAN (30.7N 50.5E)
MID-INDIAN RIDGE (15.1S 67.9E) - MINAHASSA PENINSULA( 0.1N 123.4E)
and around 5 to 6M quakes over
IRIAN JAYA REGION (3.7S 131.1E) - BANDA SEA (6.0S 130.0E)
may occur within next 48 to 380 hours from 04.30 UTC on 22nd April
2008.
http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm
I have always found that this man's errors are more likely due to the
event being a storm rather than an earthquake. Since he doesn't take
account of storms in his data, it is only fair that he counts his
errors as failures. So consider that when you look at his posted
results.
Note, I am not saying that the window is the same as it can not be
with the length of storm duration being substantially different.
No more is the location to be considered the same.
It will be within geometric parameters yet to be set. Something like
90 or 120 degrees different depending on the category of the storm
IIRC.
Without looking more closely it appears that the result will be on the
1012 mb surface level pressure line.
Exactly in the pressure wave path of any exploding Highs and imploding
Lows.
I doubt anyone has ever given a less rational qack-cast than that but
damnitalltohell! what a doozie if I am right.
Point to note:
These regions are places of light winds, and with no wind sheer you
tend to get large thunder cells building maybe even tornadoes.
Lack of wind sheer is also a factor in tropical storms.
Weatherlawyer
once again. Looks like plenty of Aitches dropping off the continent.
Weatherlawyer
> There is a number of quakes or tremors over in the Andreanof Isles
> once again. Looks like plenty of Aitches dropping off the continent.
Shoot lost the thread. Damned Google!
Out vast spot.
Here we go with another storm:
5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early
to say.
Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.
Weatherlawyer
>
> Here we go with another storm:
>
> 5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
> I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early to say.
>
> Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
> the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.
Now there is a Low in Greenland and an High in Scandinavia but the Low
that was stationed off Newfoundland for so long has almost come home.
Here are a set of charts covering most of the northern hemisphere:
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_ga...
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_ga...
>http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,br...
>http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&Ru...
>http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
>http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
Weatherlawyer
Storms due:
5.0 M. 2008/04/26 13:15 50.5 N. 51.8 W. W. KAZAKHSTAN
5.1 M. 2008/04/25 18:23 16.1 S. 175.0 W. TONGA
Storms ended:
2008/04/24
5.0 M. 20.0 S. 169.1 E. VANUATU
6.5 M. 1.1 S. 23.6 W. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 M. 20.0 S. 168.7 E. VANUATU
2008/04/23
5.0 22.8 N. 121.8 E. TAIWAN REGION
6.0 22.8 N. 121.7 E. TAIWAN REGION
5.5 3.9 S. 131.4 E. CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.2 33.6 N. 141.0 E. OFF THE E. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 25.7 S. 45.4 W. S. ATLANTIC OCEAN
North Atlantic chart 2008 April 26th +36 hours:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_36.gif
And I've had a crick in my shoulder all day. (That's since I got up on
the 26th.)
I don't believe that the UK weather forecasts are all that they could
be. And the spell is running out (28th nominally but things get off to
a flying start in North America on the 27th -which is today.)
Weatherlawyer
moment: >http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
These fronts always follow the outline of the east coast, I suppose
that is to be expected.
The set out of the storms on here though:
>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html
.... how do they know the shape of the east coast?
Skywise
a25d-d46...@r66g2000hsg.googlegroups.com:
> North American weather patterns look decidedly North American at the
> moment
WOW!!! What a profound statement!!!
Let me bask in the light of your wisdom. hmmmm... odd... it's
awfully dark in here.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
Michael
"Skywise" <in...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote in message
news:ma2Rj.62663$_h7....@newsfe05.ams2...
> Weatherlawyer <Weathe...@hotmail.com> wrote in
> news:098f1c21-a2d6-4f54-
> a25d-d46...@r66g2000hsg.googlegroups.com:
>
>> North American weather patterns look decidedly North American at the
>> moment
>
> WOW!!! What a profound statement!!!
>
> Let me bask in the light of your wisdom. hmmmm... odd... it's
> awfully dark in here.
>
> Brian
> --
It's only a night light. The man obviously has way too much time on his
hands, a chinless wonder perhaps?
----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups
----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =----
Weatherlawyer
>
> And I've had a crick in my shoulder all day. (That's since I got up on
> the 26th.)
>
> I don't believe that the UK weather forecasts are all that they could
> be. And the spell is running out (28th nominally but things get off to
> a flying start in North America on the 27th -which is today.)
Looks like a humdinger is on its way. Nargis in the bay of Bengal is
headed due south, so it's relatively safe. Which is just as well as it
is already 65 knots and slated to reach 115 on the 1st May. That's a
Cat 4.
I must say I am relieved as it will twist away the time of the phase
and give a spell not too likely to be painful for people like me.
Even my shoulder feels better.
>http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io0108.gif
This is an odd one. It has the Low bouncing back from Scandinavia even
going to the south of England and all sorts:
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=12&stop=240&imagePrefix=US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_&title=FNMOC%20EFS%20Gale%20Probability%20Forecasts%20(North%20Atlantic%20Basin)
Weatherlawyer
2008/04/28
6.0 M. 15:58; 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
5.0 M. 15:31. 58.4 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
So that means some storm is about to run out of steam; eh?
What tropical would that be then?
Weatherlawyer
>
> 2008/04/28
> 6.0 M. 15:58; 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
> 5.0 M. 15:31. 58.4 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
>
> So that means some storm is about to run out of steam; eh?
>
> What tropical would that be then?
Could they mean these.
Google News Alert for: tornado:
Tornado rips through Virginia, 200 injured: officials
AFP -
WASHINGTON (AFP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Virginia on
Monday, causing about 200 injuries and damaging homes, authorities
said. ...
WASHINGTON (AFP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Virginia on
Monday, causing about 200 injuries and damaging homes, authorities
said.
"Suffolk looks to be hardest hit," said Bob Spieldenner, spokesman for
the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, referring to the city
in the southeast corner of the state.
"They are estimating somewhere around 200 injuries."
A local hospital was also hit but was still able to receive patients,
he said.
Local television footage showed houses blown apart and trees cut down
by the tornado.
The twister had hit other south-central counties along the border of
North Carolina on Monday afternoon but the extent of the damage was
difficult to ascertain with the onset of nightfall, Spieldenner said.
>http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jlmgijQ9C1RzUogXkxjpwVAcKI_w
Storm stories: Tales from Monday's Hampton Roads tornado
>http://hamptonroads.com/2008/04/storm-stories-tales-mondays-hampton-roads-tornado
Families cope with losses after tornado touches down in Suffolk
>http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/stories/wvec_local_042808_storm_sidebar_families.acf8ab50.html
Tornado Rips Through Local Community
>http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/18353214.html
Twisters destroy homes in Virginia
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/04/28/tornado.virginia/
Heavy rain across country, tornado warnings
Stuff.co.nz - New Zealand
>http://stuff.co.nz/search-results.html?search_text=tornado&search_go=search&search_go.x=15&search_go.y=10
Witnesses: Tornado hits Cleveland Co.
>http://news14.com/content/top_stories/595319/witnesses--tornado-hits-cleveland-co-/Default.aspx
BREAKING NEWS: Reported tornado strikes
>http://www.progress-index.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19525146&BRD=2271&PAG=461&dept_id=462946&rfi=6
Video: Colonial Heights tornado damage
>http://www.wsls.com/sls/news/state_regional/article/video_colonial_heights_tornado_damage/10053/
Weatherlawyer
>
> Families cope with losses after tornado touches down in Suffolk
>
>
> Witnesses: Tornado hits Cleveland Co.
>
>
> BREAKING NEWS: Reported tornado strikes
>
>
> Video: Colonial Heights tornado damage
>
2008/04/28
6.0 M. 15:58 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region
5.0 M. 15:31 58.5 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region
5.0 M. 14:33 58.6 S. 24.8 W. South Sandwich Islands region
Is it possible that the spells of tornadic weather in the US and in
New Zealand were related to this set of quakes? Not that dramatic a
parallel as NZ is some 80 degrees away and the tornadoes were all over
the place in the USA.
Some 110 degrees by my reckoning from Driver near Richmond:
>http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ncl=http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jlmgijQ9C1RzUogXkxjpwVAcKI_w&sa=N&tab=nl
And some 90 degrees to Gisborne, New Zealand:
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ncl=http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jlmgijQ9C1RzUogXkxjpwVAcKI_w&sa=N&tab=nl
None the less, I wouldn't mind a look at a record of tornadoes and
comparing them to accounts of quakes in the South Sandwiches.
Weatherlawyer
>
> I just found the Australian data archive:
> http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/
> All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
>
> Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the enticing culture
> of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms of pressure.
>
> Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
> Weather Data instead of Synoptics...
>
> Or perhaps if we stopped calling them *******?
>
> The tossers!
“Communism possesses a language which all people can understand - its
elements are hunger, envy, and death”
Heinrich Heine
George Bush is a Commie? I thought he was a monkey. You'd expect it of
Tory B....errrm. 10p Brown.
Dawlish
So; what about those poor predictions you made using your theories?
Would you like to explain? 0/3 doesn't look good at present. I'm
giving you every chance. I know it's galling to have to return to your
predictions which just didn't come true, but if you are to justify
this theory, you are just going to have to demonstrate success with
your predictions - or it is simply pants. How did you miss the Chinese
earthquake too? I can't believe someone like you would completely
ignore it. Surely something should have alerted you?
Weatherlawyer
You are kind.
I won't say what kind.
> I know it's galling to have to return to your
> predictions which just didn't come true,
Well, stop then! Fool.
> but if you are to justify
> this theory, you are just going to have to demonstrate success with
> your predictions - or it is simply pants. How did you miss the Chinese
> earthquake too?
What on earth are you talking about?
The phase repeated, almost as I said it would. The only thing was that
the High over Greenland blocked several attempts at the harmonic to
create a Low there.
> I can't believe someone like you would completely
> ignore it. Surely something should have alerted you?
The only thing I have been ignoring is you and now it is time to put
you in your place.
You are not motivated by any search for truth. You are not seeking to
prove me a fool. You are merely motivated by a lust for revenge over
some imagined slight.
I may have impugned your grandmother but I never overtly stated that
your mother was half human. Hell. Anyone would think it a compliment
to someone like you.
I never mentioned the other half nor what I thought of your father if
you ever had one.
It must be particularly galling for someone of your lack of calibre to
have to put yourself above me, a subject of innumerable kill files.
And to attempt such to every extent your feebleness allows.
But hasn't it crossed you mind that in doing so, you have surpassed a
research scientist who sits on top of the latest data and has access
to a supercomputer?
One who even knows how to access the complete earthquakes catalogue?
Since you are such a world leader in your class, can you enlighten the
rest of us by telling us all where this ability is going to take you?
Dawlish
Ignoring the insults that I've provoked, which is "perplexing", for
some, but was, ironically, hugely predictable(!), how about actually
addressing your success statistics standing at 0% and why can't your
methods actually predict? Until you do that, I and most others will
continue to believe you are a charlatan and a troll, as you have been
described elsewhere.
The lack of success won't go away. It is so understandable why you are
ignored by most. I'm sure I'll get bored of you too, but for the time
being, watching you try to evade the issue with insults is very
funny.
Just produce some success statistics, W. That's all I, and others,
ask.
Weatherlawyer
For the edification of anyone with more than 2 brain cells but
regardless of their ability to think is still following this thread,
this is the last e-mail I received from the fool.>>>>>>
From: pjg...@hotmail.com
To: weathe...@hotmail.com
Subject: RE: World weather map
Date: Sun, 4 May 2008 11:49:14 +0000
I'm glad that stirred you up.
No-one can be bothered to reply to your mumbo-jumbo. It has no place
in science and you are incapable of any clear explanation. Analyse
each forecast you make, instead of allowing them to slip down the
thread list, so your inaccurate forecasts (most, I suspect, over the
years) attract no attention. Then you may get people to listen to you.
However, as the majority of what you post is simply made up and the
rest is gleaned from websites, any chance of producing any accuracy
will be impossible, won't it?
How could you possibly not know about wetterzentrale's Asia weather
maps? Just laughable! When I decide to take your theories to pieces,
it will not be pleasant for you. I promise you that.
From: weathe...@hotmail.com
To: pjg...@hotmail.com
Subject: RE: World weather map
Date: Sun, 4 May 2008 11:34:35 +0000
> Date: Sat, 3 May 2008 15:27:46 -0700
> Subject: Re: World weather map
> From: pjg...@hotmail.com
> >
> > I'm awfully sorry.
> >
> > Is it something I said?- Hide quoted text -
> >
> > - Show quoted text -
>
> Yes, it was. You made yourself a difficult enemy when you
decided to
> insult me, over nothing. I hope you can stand what you started.
I hope
> you can survive what you have started.
>
> Your theories are simply atrocious science. They do not make
> scientific sense and you are no scientist. You make up much of
what
> you say and you cannot provide any evidence to back up your,
often,
> idiotic utterances.
>
> No wonder; there is no connection whatsoever
> between the things that you suggest.
>
> I have read what you have posted
> and I have no qualms whatsoever in saying that you are a
complete
> charlatan. If you are not, prove it by showing quantitative
evidence
> of your forecasts. Your forecast of 24/4 proved ridiculously
wrong.
> There was no major earthquake. You have not returned to this and
> explained. If you do not, I will take you to pieces. That is a
> promise.
If you care to check the forecast I actually gave, which I will do
myself once I have posted this, you may notice it is in two parts.
One: I gave a most likely time for the events to play out.
This was in fact when the storm centre reached land. However no
quake occurred as you note, however if you were more conversant with
my ideas you would accept that a severe weather phenomenon can be
engendered in its stead.
Two: The cyclone is still in existence. It faded almost completely
as that storm peaked, becoming very flaccid. But now as Nagris blows
out, it has deepened once more.
So what is the explanation for the small part of these events you
were a witness to? No-one else has seen fit to offer an explanation,
not even my most ardent fan.
Why not give us the best you have you offer? You blithering idiot.
<<<<<<<<<<
As you can see the drama and documentation are much the same as
before, hence the reason I wasn't bothering with him. I have made a
difficult enemy? A stalker on Usenet?
"You made yourself a difficult enemy when you decided to insult me,
over nothing."
Much ado about nothing. Sorry to continue the flame but the troll was
getting on my nerves. Excised now. As it happens I don't remember what
I said to fire his arse but it must have been good.
Sorry to bother the real world but I felt a need to show his motive
for being so pedantic and silly.
******
Ah well, as a reward for sticking with me, my real fans can have a
bonus that hopefully they will not share with anyone wise enough to
put me in a peaceful place of concealment:
The next lunar phases are almost exact repeats of the two found at the
end of February this same year:
May 12 03:47 May 20 02:11
Feb 21 03:31 Feb 29 02:18
>http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
>http://groups.google.com/group/alt.talk.weather/browse_frm/month/2008-02
>http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0302.htm
>http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0303.htm
Obvious differences are that one set is in winter, leaving solstice,
whilst the other is approaching summer solstice. Declinations
notwithstanding, the weather spells should prove much of a muchness.
And I shall look forward to Richard Dixon's explanation when he
finally comes up with one. Or something from JPG.
Or not, as the case may be.
Weatherlawyer
>
> May 12 03:47 May 20 02:11
> Feb 21 03:31 Feb 29 02:18
>
> >http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
> >http://groups.google.com/group/alt.talk.weather/browse_frm/month/2008-02
> >http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0302.htm
> >http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0303.htm
>
> Obvious differences are that one set is in winter, leaving solstice,
> whilst the other is approaching summer solstice. Declinations
> notwithstanding, the weather spells should prove much of a muchness.
I missed this:
Feb 14 03:34 Feb 21 03:31 Feb 29 02:18
May 5 12:18 May 12 03:47 May 20 02:11
By extrapolation or interpolation (I'm never sure which is the correct
term) the last phase resembles that of February 14-21. Bit of a squeak
I know but interesting no less.
Dawlish
>
> - Show quoted text -
So, completely in my place (same as it ever was) and still waiting, as
others are, for any evidence of success from your tectonic predictions
(oh sorry, if you don't get the tectonics right, you could always say
there was storm somewhere which decilned, or developed instead.
Goodness knows why you have pursued this dead end for the time that
you have, but you are joining many othrer scientists who proposed
theories which were soon shown to be ridiculous. Yours have been shown
to be that many times, scrolling back amongst your many posts on this
subject (and seeing very few from anyone who is in clear support of
what you are doing......in fact there seem to be a lack of any
interest whatsoever, apart from a few, like me, that feel you are
peddling nonsense and are prepared to say that), yet you haven't the
grace, or the intelligence to see that the people who challenge your
views may actually be trying to do you a favour and show you the error
of your ways.
0/3 since April24th and It'll be interesting to see whether you can
raise that percentage to anything which would interest any real
scientist who works in the area of tectonics (or in any other field,
for that matter). The request for your accuracy stats isn't going to
go away and without it, you can write all the pseudo-forecasts and
post whatever hindsight "agreements" and "linkages" that you wish, but
W; it will be worth exatly the present value your tectonic forecast
accuracy since I began monitoring your predictions..........0.