On Sunday, June 29, 2014 12:20:26 PM UTC-4, Jope wrote:
> On Saturday, June 28, 2014 10:04:33 PM UTC-4, Darwin123 wrote:
> > > > 3) You have not shown that Haldanes Dilemma is generally valid.
> > Actually, I did refute those numbers. You may recall that I said that I didn't believe the 300 generations. However, your selective memory filtered out those comments I made that you
> > find uncomfortable.
>
> Not believing and refuting are two different things.
>
> Haldane maintained that it would take 300 generations for a nucleotide to completely replace and old one. How long do think it should take?
This estimate of his is only partially true. His falsification only holds true when the cost of replacement is high enough to prevent more than one nucleotide being replaced at any one
time. That would only be plausible in an environment that was completely homogeneous.
According to his logic, it would take 300 generations to replace any number of nucleotides
when the cost of replacement is zero. If the cost of replacement was zero, you could have
thousands of nucleotides being replaced at the same time. My position is that there are conditions
under which the cost of replacement is very low because there are shelters for each nucleotide
where they don't have to compete strongly with other nucleotides.
Okay. You want my estimate for a population the size of the population in his example?
I believe that most species start out as clines, where their environment is broken up into
smaller habitats. Separate nucleotides are beneficial in separate habitats.
To replace one nucleotide in one habitat, it would take at least 300 generations.
To replace two nucleotides in two habitats, it would take at least 300 generations.
To replace 3 nucleotides, it would take at least 300 generations.
To replace 100 nucleotides in a highly inhomogeneous environment, it would take
300 generations.
I disagree with Haldanes conclusion that only one beneficial allele could spread through
an environment at any one time. I have repeated again and again that I hypothesize many
alleles spreading through the population in the same interval of time.
If the cost of substitution were the only thing limiting the rate at which species emerge, and if
real environments are highly inhomogeneous, then it could take as little as 300 generations to
go from Ardi to Homo.
I don't think the cost of substitution is the only thing slowing down the emergence of species.
You will probably come up with a few other speed bumps. However, I also don't think the
cost of replacement is a constant independent of environment. I have provided examples where
the cost of replacement is quite low.
The cost of replacement is nonzero only because of competition between organisms. The 'subtractive' part of the replacement probably takes place in mass extinctions. There could be
dozens of clines before a mass extinction and hundreds of species after a mass extinction.
You haven't acknowledged what I said. I suspect that you don't understand it. I have given
a few examples of clines where allele distributions vary. To show you understand, explain to me
why 'the cost of replacement' prevents more than one allele from taking over at a time.
> For evolution to occur, 'old' genes must be replaced by 'new', more advanced genes. This replacement has to occur in the entire population of a species if it is to evolve into another species.
That is not true under most conditions. The alleles can take over in subpopulations, causing
more than one species to emerge at a time. There is no reason why the allele has to take over
the entire population. Local variations in the environment breaks up the population into subpopulations.
Haldanes Dilemma hypothesizes with no rational that the allele has to take over the entire
population. However, most theories of species emergence refer to alleles taking over subpopulations.
Sometime a subpopulation is referred to as a 'peripheral isolate'.
>
> > I am sure that I questioned those probabilities. I question the number of de nova mutation needed to make the human species. I questioned the value of the cost of substitution being constant. I questioned most numbers in that paper. You never refuted my doubts about the numbers. I asked you where these numbers came from several times.
> > Your claim that I never questioned the numbers is very close to a lie. You know that I questioned the numbers. Yet you glibly say that I never questioned them.
> > > Unless you can come up with different calculations,you need to stop arguing against Haldane's Dilemma.
I just did, again. I just pointed out that several alleles could concentrate in separate habitats over
300 generations. There could be a thousand genes required to form a new species. A thousand alleles could be replacing their competitors over the same 300 generations. Therefore, the minimum possible time it takes to form a new species is 300 generations.
At 20 years per generation, the time it would take to form a new species is about 6000 years.
How Biblical! However, this implies that Adam belonged in the genus, Ardipithecus.
>
This is a minimum amount of time, of course. I have adapted an extreme hypothesis in opposition to Haldanes extreme model. In actual fact, there will be some competition between alleles even in a cline.
However, the competition in a cline is extremely reduced.
> >
> > That isn't true. You argue against Haldanes Dilemma without doing any calculations. You haven't checked the calculations. You can't even do the calculations. You don't know anything about statistics. You have frequently quoted probabilities that you can't support. I, on the other hand, often provide numbers.
> > You frequently dismiss the value of statistics. How can you insist that Haldanes calculation is correct? Especially since you don't understand statistics?
>
> You are grasping at straws here.
>
> I don't find Haldane's dilemma to be that complicated.
Because you haven't thought about it carefully. I don't find anything complicated because you
don't question anything.
>
> It takes 300 generations for a nucleotide to completely replace and old one. (30÷10%)
And it may take 300 generations for two new nucleotides to replace two old nucleotides.
It may take 300 generations for three new nucleotides to replace three old nucleotides.
It may take 300 generations for four new nucleotides to replace four old nucleotides.
You won't address my calculations. You won't even rebut what I just said. You will simply change the subject.
>
> How many nucleotides could be replaced in the 10 million years generously offered by Haldane? 1667
>
> (10,000,000yrs÷20yrs x 300 generations)
=150,000,000 nucleotides.
The ape genome contain about 30,000 genes an about 10,000 nucleotides per gene.
So that is 30,000,000 nucleotides. If you replace 15,000,000 of them, you have replaced
about 50% of the genome. That is enough to define a new phylum, let alone species!
Wow, that is even more nucleotides than I thought possible! Macroevolution must even be
faster than I thought! A population could go from carrot to human in 10 million years!
Your arithmetic is wrong. Completely. However, you won't even acknowledge this. Your ego is too involved in showing your infallibility. Your arrogance will not let you admit that you can't do simple
mathematics. I predict that you will try to change the subject.
You could check your own arithmetic. Or have a fourth grader do it. By the arithmetic that
you set up, there would be 15,000,000 nucleotides being replaced in a 10 MY interval. This
is clearly wrong.
Your units were wrong, for one thing. There are 20 years/generation, and
300 generations/nucleotide.
This is your error, not mine. You didn't read the units right. Your units are messed up.
ReMine would have gotten this correct. He would have realized that the 300 generations has
to be in the denominator. Under the conditions where only one allele can take over at a time,
which I don't believe, the number of nucleotides would be:
10,000,000 years/(20years/generation times 300 generations/nucleotide)=
1,667 nucleotides.
Have a chemistry major show you why the units are correct in the above calculation.
Now that looks like both Haldanes and ReMines value. So you can see I can reproduce their
numbers. That is more than you could do.
However, I think ReMine is making a big mistake in interpretation. 1,667 nucleotides
is an estimate showing how many nucleotides would be replaced assuming that no two
nucleotides were spreading at the same time. I think this is incorrect.
Reader, you now see that Jope can't do mathematics. He can't even reproduce the same calculation of the Creationist he is quoting. He apparently does not understand the underlying concepts, either.
This is more than an arithmetic mistake. If he understood at all, he would have gotten the units correct.
Yeah, I understand this math. You obviously don't. Given only one nucleotide spreading
during a 300 year time period, there would be 1,667 nucleotides replaced. That is where the
cost of replacement comes in. One needs a sizable cost of replacement to prevent more than
one nucleotide spreading at the same time.
Oh, please. You can't even do the statistics necessary to lie! You just quoted from authority.
You didn't even try to do the arithmetic.
>
>
>
> At this rate of replacement, it would take 500 billion years for just 1% of the genes to be replaced. One percent change is not enough to produce any significant speciation.
Well, according to your calculations, there are 15,000,000 nucleotides replaced. If the human
genome were 30,000,000 nucleotides, then one has replaced about 50% of them.
>
> Unless you can offer new calculations,I kindly suggest that you leave Haldane's Dilemma alone.
Until you learn mathematics, I suggest that you leave ReMine alone.
>
> And you shouldn't be and angry at me,if the theory of evolution is so replete with flaws,some of them fatal.
I am not angry at you. That arithmetic blunder made me very happy! You always make me happy!