Catching is the team’s biggest issue heading into 2021

[*ernie]

The book on Wilson Ramos when he signed a two-year deal with the Mets
in 2019 was simple: He’s an above-average hitter and a below-average
defender. And in the first year of his contract, he somewhat lived up
to those expectations, hitting for a 105 wRC+ and even achieving a
league-best 26-game hitting streak towards the end of the season. He
presented his greatest value with his durability, however, appearing
in 141 games, the most for any Mets catcher in a season since Mike
Piazza in 2001. It appeared as if the Mets had found a suitable
starter for the 2020 season.

But El Búfalo did not match his 2019 performance in 2020, nor did he
really come close. Ramos has never been an especially good defensive
catcher, and in 2020 he didn’t see much progress. According to
Baseball Prospectus’s catcher defense metrics, Ramos ranked 75th
amongst 99 qualified catchers with a -.6 rating in Catcher Defensive
Adjustment (CDA). He was especially poor with pitch framing and
defending errant pitches, finishing in the bottom half of qualified
catchers in Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) and Errant Pitches
Above Average (ERAA). He actually ranked better in all of these
metrics in 2020 than he did amongst all qualified catchers in 2019,
but he also finished behind backup catchers Tomás Nido, Rene Rivera,
and Ali Sanchez in these measurements this season, as well.

Ramos was actually slightly better this season throwing out runners
than last season, where according to BP he topped all qualified
catchers in bases stolen above average, but his 17.6% caught-stealing
percentage puts him last amongst all qualified catchers in 2020. One
could argue that Ramos’s defensive improved slightly between 2019 and
2020, but one could more easily argue that Ramos remains one of the
worst defensive catchers in baseball. He frames poorly, blocks poorly,
and seldom throws out base stealers.

None of these defensive shortcomings should surprise anyone who has
ever watched Ramos play his position, but what should surprise Mets
fans is Ramos’s offensive production in 2020. Ramos finished the
season with an 89 wRC+, his worst hitting season since hitting for 62
wRC+ in 2015 in Washington. Amongst all catchers with at least 150
plate appearances, only Yadier Molina and Gary Sanchez finished with a
lower wRC+ than Ramos. His 20% strikeout rate and .387 slugging
percentage were both the lowest of his career since that 2015 season,
as well. Combining his offensive struggles with his defensive
inabilities, one could argue that Ramos was the worst starting catcher
in the National League, and one of the worst in all of baseball.

What made the Wilson Ramos experience especially difficult for Mets
fans this season was comparing him to the player Ramos replaced,
Travis d’Arnaud. After being released from the Mets in May of 2019,
d’Arnaud reappeared for the Rays last season and became their playoff
starter and a middle-of-the-order bat. He went on to have a career
year for the Atlanta Braves this season, hitting for a career high 145
wRC+ and finishing eight overall in CDA according to BP, making him
one of the five most valuable catchers in baseball according to fWAR.
To assume d’Arnaud would have produced the same for the Mets this
season is a bit presumptuous considering he never played this well in
his six seasons in New York, but the fact remains that d’Arnaud had a
highly productive 2020 season and Ramos did not.

It would be very surprising if the Mets picked up Ramos’s $10 million
option for 2021, which means the club will likely have a big hole to
fill coming into next season. Finding that replacement in-house might
prove difficult, as well. Veterans Robinson Chirinos and Rivera are 36
and 37 years old, respectively, and only played in 14 combined games
this season. Top prospect Ali Sanchez recorded only one hit in ten
plate appearances this season and will likely see a little more time
in the minors before being given significant major league playing
time. But it wasn’t all bad news for Mets catchers this season.

After struggling in his first two seasons as a backup catcher in the
big leagues, Tomás Nido emerged as the lone bright spot amongst Mets
catchers this season, albeit with not many opportunities. Nido showed
promise with a .292/.346/.583 slash line in only 26 plate appearances,
but it’s hard to make anything out of a 150 wRC+ in such a small
sample size. Similarly, his 0.4 CDA put him in the top 25th percentile
amongst all qualified catchers in 2020, which is around the same
percentile he finished in both 2018 and 2019. If Nido can continue
hitting next season, he could blossom into a serviceable starter, or
more likely a very capable backup.

But with no comfortable option heading into next season, the Mets will
likely acquire a starting catcher via trade or through the free agent
market. J.T. Realmuto will be a key target for not just the Mets, but
likely half the teams in the league, and if the Mets look to acquire
him they’ll have to rely on new owner Steve Cohen immediately breaking
out his checkbook. A Mets lineup with Realmuto plugged in the middle
would make a formidable force, but many even cheaper options would
still be an improvement next season over Ramos.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2020/10/2/21496972/2020-mets-takeaways-the-catchers-ramos-nido-chirinos-sanchez-rivera


ernie k.
already...@hotmail.com