DMR & SAR Opening Day Jul 23, up late handicapping Tue nite
Barry Kramer
handicapping Tue nite. Now 10:36 Eastern, will be checking regularly for
the next couple of hours. Will have first thoughts on SAR posted soon.
Fager
Barry Kramer <remarkyrr...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:TxmTa.61515$kI5....@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
Barry Kramer
big on turf racing, your saved me alot of time, am only going to look at
SAR's 7th & 9th now.
Fager <soc...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:bfl0uk$o9$1...@slb4.atl.mindspring.net...
Barry Kramer
card, according to Fager, off turf tomorrow. Love turf racing, can't handle
off turf dirt races.
Race 2. No bet. Nothing jumped out of the page at me.
Race 7. Think the speed will quit, the inside 5 are all speed and evenly
matched. Of the outside 3, #8 Speed Hunter seems the real. He's 2 for 2 @
SAR, away since May and obviously has been prepping for this meet and
they've tipped their hand with that 2nd back workout :45 3/5 !! He'll be
stalking on the outside w/ patient Pat making a late move. Win bet if odds
are 5:2+, exacta boxes with #'s 6 & 7.
Race 9. Wow some kinda race.
#1 Be Gentle, Lukas, quality speed on the rail, 1st lasix
#2 Bikini Wiggle, A. Dutrow is hi % trainer ships in, must not have liked
mud in last cuz 4 straight tremendous bullet works, Bailey rides
#3 Feline Story, quality speed
#4 Secret Romance, the lone closer
#5 Hermione's Magic, Pletcher & Johnny V
#6 Goodie's Galore, broke awkward & bumped gate and still went to front to
duel for lead around the track when breaking mdn by nose, maybe Pat Day can
get her to rate
When I first handicapped the race I was looking at 2 horse for the lead, #1
& #3, and liked the #1 better cuz 1st lasix, but work tab for #2 is somethin
else and Bailey rides and he always the best mounts in stake races. Early
line has #5 as the 5:2 fave. Not sure how I'll bet this one yet, depends on
how much the crowd jumps on Bailey, get the feeling he'll be overlooked and
will probably be my bet.
Nest I'm off to Delmar ..... Kramer
Barry Kramer <remarkyrr...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:TxmTa.61515$kI5....@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
Barry Kramer
about my exploits, just trying to discuss handicapping w/ fellow horse
players. If few replies, will quit posting. Best Regards, Kramer.
Check this out, copied it from BRIS website, great data on DMR:
DEL MAR - PART 1
When Del Mar opens its doors for opening day on July 23, there will be an
air of anticipation like no other meet on the Southern California racing
calendar. There are several reasons why the bettors in Southern California
and around the country flock to the where the "Turf Meets the Surf" for
eight weeks a year.
Situated alongside the Pacific Ocean, Del Mar continues to offer the most
competitive racing on California's racing calendar. Full fields in each
class level are awaiting handicappers that complain about the short fields
during the spring/summer meet at Hollywood Park and winter meet at Santa
Anita.
The depth in each field is an indication of trainers and owners that would
sacrifice the entire Hollywood Park meet and point for Del Mar, and for good
reason. The purses are the highest for the California racing year and many
of the elite owners vacation here. With this intention, trainers will be
bringing sharp horses off layoffs. First-time starters that have been
pointed toward Del Mar can also be overlooked at a price against horses that
ran at Hollywood Park.
Unlike any other meet in Southern California, angles are frequently used and
principles such as pace, current form, workouts and track profiles are
thrown out the window. European imports tend to be frequently overlooked by
the betting public, such as Golden Apples (Ire) (Pivotal) at $44 two years
ago. Wagering on French imports at Del Mar produced four wins from nine
starts in 2001, but in 2002 European imports Lugny (Fr) (Ski Chief) (13-1),
Chadwicks Well (Ire) (Spectrum) (7-2), Dream Machine (Fr) (Bon Sang) (9-1)
and Sentimental Value (Diesis [GB]) (7-1) disappointed in their U.S. debut.
However, Little Treasure (Fr) (Night Shift) ($7.20) and Adalgisa (Spinning
World) ($4) illustrate that the form of European shippers are told on the
tote board.
Before you can a European import or a "live" first-time starter getting a
lot of attention on the tote board, you must refer to track-profile
statistics of the previous meetings to understand how that horse is going to
run over this main track. The main track superintendent, Steve Wood, also
handles the main track at Santa Anita. Therefore, barns that were based at
Santa Anita, such as Bob Baffert, Jeff Mullins, Bill Spawr, Jack Carava, Ron
McAnally, Ted West and Bruce Headley, may skip the entire Hollywood Park
meet with some horses to avoid the main track at Inglewood.
Also, horses that ran poorly at Hollywood Park may really turn it around at
Del Mar meet. If you see a poor last race running line at Hollywood Park
from one of the barns mentioned, I suggest digging deeper in the horse's
past performances to see the horse's true form.
Prior to the 1999 Del Mar meet, handicappers approached Del Mar with the
idea that late-running sprinters dominated while horses with early speed
would often quit. However, the track surface was replaced after the 1999
meet and that assumption is nonexistent when you consider the track profiles
for distances of 5 1/2, six, 6 1/2 and seven furlongs. Here are some
noticeable trends from the 2002 Del Mar Meet that were evident at these
distances.
5 1/2 furlongs: The majority, if not all, of the races at this distance are
for maiden or allowance two-year-olds. There were 28 races at the distance
last year and 22 were won by horses either on the lead or within a head of
it at the first pace call (opening quarter-mile). As far as horses breaking
from the three inside post positions, 13 of 28 races were won from the
inside.
One can assume that with early speed dominating, it is difficult to get
value. However, Humorous Lady (Distorted Humor) at $82.20, Ionia (Indian
Charlie) at $91, Sky's Snow (Benchmark) at $26.20 and My Stars (Flying
Victor) at $15.40 all displayed the right profile before paying a good price
for a front-running score at this distance.
Six furlongs: No distance is prevalent to early speed more than this
distance. Last year, Del Mar carded an amazing 107 races at six furlongs and
77 were won by horses either on or within two lengths of the lead at the
first call. That's a 72 percent win clip. In 2001, horses breaking from the
rail at the distance were pitiful, winning only three of 98 races, but that
changed last year as 26 of 107 races were won by horses breaking from the
two inside post positions.
In the first week of the meet, I strongly suggest for bettors handicapping
at six furlongs to focus on wagering horses with early speed. In the first
week of the 2002 meet, 12 of the 15 races were won by horses within two
lengths of the lead at the first call.
6 1/2 furlongs: Though early speed is an advantage, with 31 of 46 races run
at this distance being won by horses either on or within two lengths of the
lead at the first call, the noticeable trend at this distance is with post
positions. Inside posts were terrible. Only eight horses came from the first
two gates to win at this distance in 2002.
Seven furlongs: As with the three previous sprint distances, early speed is
an advantage as 12 of 18 races at seven furlongs were taken by horses either
on or within two lengths of the lead at the first call. Unlike at 6 1/2
furlongs, the first two posts won six of 18.
One interesting trend that occurred last year at this distance was the
strength of the route-to-sprint angle. Seven of 18 winners were turning back
in distance, many at a price. Horses such as Martinis at Midnite
(Dynaformer) at $66.20, Runninwithscissors (Sir Cat) at $46.60, and Holy
Mackerel (Holy Land) at $21 were examples of an angle that the public
overlooked.
One mile: A popular distance at Del Mar because of the roar from the
grandstand, the mile distance was run 53 times last year and tactical speed
was vital for success. Thirty-one of the races were won by horses either on
the lead or within two lengths of the lead at the first call (half-mile
pole). The three inside posts produced 25 wins.
An interesting trend in the first two weeks last year was the lack of
wire-to-wire winners at the distance. From the first 12 races at a mile,
only one winner led at every call.
1 1/16 miles: Last year's meet featured a strong bias against wire-to-wire
winners. From 25 races at the distance, only five were won wire-to-wire and
three of those were favored, including Azeri (Jade Hunter) at a $2.20
mutuel.
Five furlongs on turf: This is a new distance for this year's meet. The
Jimmy Durante Turf Course at Del Mar is seven furlongs in length with a
short stretch run. With only a quarter-mile run to the far turn, horses
breaking from inside posts with early speed have an advantage. Horses
breaking from an outside post run the risk of losing serious ground into the
far turn.
One mile on turf: The mile distance is fair to all running styles. Whether
on the lead, near the pace or from well off the pace, the key principle is
pace. Last year, the Del Mar turf course was extremely fast with track
performances recorded by Special Ring (Nureyev) in 1:32.72 and a front-end
score by Golden Arrow (Rahy) with torrid early fractions of :21.69 and
:44.93.
Seventeen of 30 races at the distance were won by horses on or within two
lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The first three posts
produced 12 winners.
1 1/16 miles on turf: Horses coming from well off the pace or sitting in
midpack enjoyed success last year. Only 13 of 40 races at the distance were
won by horses either on or within two lengths of the lead at the first call
(half-mile pole). Despite that profile, it does not mean to bet against
horses that figure to grab an uncontested lead because there were plenty of
examples of horses who were able to grab the lead and win. If a horse you
like figures to make the lead at a generous price, then take the odds.
DEL MAR - PART 2
The frequent names will make their presence felt this summer at Del Mar. Bob
Baffert, Bobby Frankel, Neil Drysdale, Richard Mandella, Jenine Sahadi, Bill
Spawr, etc...will all be concentrated upon by the betting public. However,
some of these trainers have illustrated profitable patterns in the past two
years and there are other low-profile trainers to watch for at Del Mar. In
the final part of Del Mar preview, I will highlight significant trainer
profiles that could lead to a profitable summer where the "Turf meets the
Surf."
D. Wayne Baker: He might not be a household name to many in the Southern
California racing community, but his horses outran the expectations of
bettors throughout last year's meeting at Del Mar. On opening week alone,
Baker's horses either won or finished in the money at odds ranging from 8-1
to 26-1. He used Omar Figueroa primarily in the irons.
Bob Baffert: If you are wondering why the meet's leading trainer for the
past five years did not start many of his two-year olds at Hollywood Park,
it's because the silver-haired conditioner annually points for Del Mar.
Though his horses are typically overbet, they will still offer wagering
value on occasion, especially in two-year old races. None of these maiden
winners -- Bull Market (Holy Bull), Vindication (Seattle Slew), Friendly
Mike (Honour and Glory), Truckle Feature (Saint Ballado), Icecoldbeeratreds
(In Excess [Ire]) and Honest Answer (Tale of the Cat) -- were favored when
winning either their career debut or second start. Watch out for Baffert in
the two-year-old maiden race on opening day. Since 1999, Bob Baffert has won
the first two-year old race of the meet.
Neil Drysdale: Prior to 2002, 17 of Drysdale's 20 previous wins at Del Mar
had come on the turf. Last year was no exception. His highlight last season
was probably sending out Sarafran (Lear Fan) to win the Eddie Read H. (G1)
at a $10.80 mutuel. Whether it is a European import making his first start
in the United States, a horse trying the turf for the first time or a turf
horse with a prep at Hollywood Park, when Drysdale starts a horse on the
turf, it should be considered live.
Mike Harrington: Bettors searching for live long shots have to look no
further than Mike Harrington. Last year, First Titanium (In Excess [Ire])
won at $17.40, the year before he sent out $26.60 winner to break his maiden
and a $67.80 winner that went from the turf to the dirt. Bettors should not
be afraid to back Harrington's horses coming off a layoff, making their
career debut, stretching from sprint to route or going turf to dirt. He
should be considered dangerous at a price.
Eoin Harty: Last year, his barn was swept with a virus that ruined the meet
for Godolphin, but this year will be different. After going 5 for 48 in his
first two years at Del Mar, Harty is loaded for bear in 2003. At Hollywood,
he won with three juvenile first-time starters, all with David Flores in the
irons. He appears to have a barn stocked with talent for Del Mar. Harty won
at a 40 percent clip at Hollywood and the former assistant to Baffert could
challenge his predecessor for leading trainer with two-year olds.
Bruce Headley: One expected a trainer like him to get his first winner of
the 2002 Del Mar in the first week, but he didn't win his first race until
August 23. That could be a result of running his horses so much at Hollywood
Park. This year, Headley skipped the entire Hollywood Park meet to prepare
for Del Mar and enters with sharp horses that will be ready off the layoff.
With his competition having raced at Hollywood Park, Headley's stock could
provide value, as his horses have not started since the conclusion of the
winter meet at Santa Anita. His go to man is Alex Solis.
Michael Machowsky: Last year, his barn did not start to heat up until the
final three weeks of the meeting, but his ace is horses making their first
start off the claim and going from the turf to the dirt. Timber Baron (Holy
Bull) at $13.60 and Red Vintage (Red Ransom) at $9.40 both opened at 10-1 on
the morning line before being bet down.
Ron McAnally: With horses returning from layoffs, whether maidens or stakes
horses, McAnally discovered a renaissance last year. Three of his Del Mar
winners were maidens returning off the layoff with the addition of Lasix. In
addition, he is effective with horses switching surfaces. Affluent
(Affirmed) went dirt to turf to win the John C. Mabee/Ramona H. (G1) at
$7.80 and Rushin to Altar (Pulpit) went from the dirt to the turf and paid
$9.80. No horse in his barn is more highly regarded than the Argentine
undefeated sensation Candy Ride (Arg) (Ride the Rails).
Christopher Paasch: If you want high percentage winners, then follow the
chalk. If you want longshots, then Paasch is your man. On opening day last
year, he sent out Ponche de Leona (Ponche) to pay $61.60 off a bullet work
over the Del Mar main track. He sent out Ionia (Indian Charlie) to win at
the meet's highest mutuel, $91, in her career debut. Do not discount any
horse making his/her career debut under Paasch. In 2001, he sent out Kamsack
(Crafty Prospector) to win at $14.40 and Roman Dancer (Polish Dancer) at $9.
Though he has relocated to Kentucky, Paasch has said that he intends to have
15 to 20 horses for the Del Mar meet. Look for him to score at least once at
a price again this year.
Bill Spawr: No barn has been as successful with its claims over the last
three years as Spawr's. He operates a consistent claiming operation and
could once again challenge Baffert for the leading training title if he has
success like the previous three meets at Del Mar. Although many bettors are
lured into horses dropping in class, that is not the case with this barn.
Spawr moves horses up in class effectively. When he steps a runner up in
claiming price or class level, that means the horse is well meant. He has
won with 22 percent of his starters this year and will hit Del Mar with a
slew of horses claimed at Hollywood for Sid and Jenny Craig.
Warren Stute: He's trainer who will surprise bettors when they least expect
it. Stute is adept in preparing a first-time starter to be ready and
effective with horses making their first or second start off the claim. Last
year, he pulled off three major upsets: Grey Memo (Memo [Chi]), Ragin T Rex
(Cat's Career) and Miss Houdini (Belong to Me). All those horses ran in
either graded stakes or restricted events and won. The first two finished
off the board in their previous starts and remained in stakes company. Miss
Houdini was returning off a layoff and won the Del Mar Debutante S. (G1).
The last start running line doesn't always apply to Stute's starters, who
offer the best value when remaining at the same class level or going up
after a poor last race.
longshotjohn7
>> Check this out, copied it from BRIS website, great data on DMR:
>
>
>
been on to that for 14-15 years.......
>
> DEL MAR - PART 2
> Neil Drysdale:
when Drysdale starts a horse on the turf, it should
> be considered live.
>> Eoin Harty: . He appears to have a
> barn stocked with talent for Del Mar..
>
> Bruce Headley:
. This year, Headley skipped the
> entire Hollywood Park meet to prepare for Del Mar and enters with
> sharp horses that will be ready
>>>
>> Bill Spawr: No barn has been as successful with its claims over the
> last three years as Spawr's. >
thanx for the heads up.
>
--
longshotjohn 7
http://www.smartgroups.com/groups/hot2trot
The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but
because of those who look on and do nothing. --Albert Einstein
Bob M
analyse my race picks too much. I bet longshots. I usually take this
part of the year off from betting horses because I do poorly at
Saratoga. I do best at aqueduct and Belmont. I usually look for horses
that do not have tell tale signs of being a winner but have a better
chance than the odds indicate. I watch for horses that finish close yet
say 5th or 6th and the horses in front of it say tend to break their
maiden or win at that level soon. These are all indicators to me that
a horse might do better against a slightly weaker field at the same
level. Often most handicappers have a hard time of judging the strength
or weakness of a field in a prior race. So if a few decent horses who
finished 2nd or 3rd at the same level against a similar bunch of horses
and I see mine finished 6th or whatever and I feel he has a fair chance
and is running at 10-1 or better I will bet that horse. Often if I were
to state my selections earlier then maybe the horse will drop to 6-1 and
I would not bet it. Not that posting it here would drop the odds it
that not every horse I have an interest in maintains the kind of odds I
am looking for. It is also unfair for me to state which longshots I do
hit and then mention them because that is too much like tooting my own
horn. When I do bet it is a few times a week. And if they looked good
on paper in the obvious fashion they would not be longshots and if you
win a small percentage of the time you can stay ahead I have learned to
do this by diligently keeping a betting journal. I also pay keen
attention to races I do not bet to find a horse who seems to have a
spark yet it does not show up on paper when looking back at past
results. Some of the best racing information never shows up in the DRF.
--BOB PS.. your methods are fascinating to me however I find they
ussually confirm the favorite and I do notice that in a few catagories
it will indicate a 3rd or 4th choice to be close in capability. Which
is good but to me when I try to cap like that leads me to lose....lol. I
am glad that you can pick like that at least your dryspells aren't too
bad. My dry spell can span an entire season if I bet only a few races a
week. I make up on it when 2 or more longshots come in groups.... when
it rains it pours.
Barry Kramer
handicapper. I don't like chalk either, if my analysis picks a favorite if
I have time I'll try and pick the exacta or double, otherwise I just move
on. Best Regards, Kramer.
Bob M <Bob...@webtv.net> wrote in message
news:23652-3F...@storefull-2351.public.lawson.webtv.net...