Why Donald Trump’s low approval rating may mean less than you think

[Fritz Wuehler]

Social media erupted into paroxysms of schadenfreude over the
weekend with the discovery that President Trump’s daily approval
rating from Gallup had hit a new low of 37 percent. That figure
is lower than Barack Obama experienced at any point over the
course of his presidency. On a daily basis, Trump is now
averaging 42.1 percent approval, lower than any other previous
president included in Gallup’s data.

For those looking to these figures as proof that Trump’s
presidency is failing and, perhaps an eventual drag on his
party, there are a few reasons to wait before spiking the
football.

The first is that Gallup’s daily numbers are volatile. He’s been
down before, as low as 38 percent approval. A week later, he was
at 43 percent. On March 11, about a week before the March 18 low
that’s gotten so much attention, he was at 45 percent approval —
which then collapsed.

Why? What happened between March 11 and March 18? You can point
to any number of things, of course. It’s hard to say. Gallup
usually tracks approval numbers based on weekly averages
precisely to smooth out the volatility the daily polling can
see. When you do that, Trump’s time in office has been poorly
reviewed, but not quite as dramatically so.

Gallup will release new weekly numbers shortly that should show
an average approval of about 40 percent. That would tie the
lowest weekly average Obama ever saw.

But this is also just one polling firm. Using data from
Huffington Post Pollster, you can see that the average of a
variety polls of Trump’s approval is much smoother than the
Gallup daily poll. There’s still been a recent downturn, but a
more modest one than the Gallup numbers might suggest.

The assholes were polling beaners!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/20/why-
donald-trumps-low-approval-rating-may-mean-less-than-you-
think/?utm_term=.227fdd1d70ca