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cyclones are stalling more often boosting rainfall
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MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com
Jun 11, 2019, 7:41:21 PM6/11/19
to
< https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145139/tropical-cyclones-are-stalling-more/>
Tropical Cyclones are Stalling More
Storms in the North Atlantic are lingering longer near the coast,
leading to significantly more rainfall
Kasha Patel, Earth Observatory
In Sept 2018, Hurricane Florence lingered in a confined region
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/92748/hurricane-florence>
near the North Carolina coast for 53 hours, becoming the wettest
tropical cyclone on record for the Carolinas. In 2017, Hurricane
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/90819/hurricane-harvey>
Harvey stalled for more than 100 hours in the northern Gulf of Mexico,
pumping disastrous amounts of moisture into TX. In 2008, Tropical
Storm Fay hovered near Florida for at least 66 hours and
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/20356/tropical-storm-fay>
became one of the most prolific rain-producing storms in the area.
(NASA Earth Observatory video and imagery by Joshua Stevens, using
data from Hall, T. M., and Kossin, J. P., (2019) and IMERG data
from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) at NASA/GSFC).
A new study says those stalls were not freak occurrences, but instead
fit with a growing trend of slower, longer-lasting hurricanes in the
North Atlantic. In a study published on June 3, 2019, scientists
<https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0074-8> from NASA and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed that North
Atlantic hurricanes have been moving slower and meandering more from
their average trajectory over the past 7 decades. The result has
been storms that stall more frequently and linger for longer periods
of time near the coast, leading to more rainfall over confined locations.
"Rain-driven flooding is especially exacerbated by these stalling
events," said Tim Hall, the study's lead author and a hurricane
researcher at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "If a storm
sits there for a longer period of time, there's more cumulative
rainfall and much greater flood risk."
The animation above shows a quintessential example of a stalling
storm: Hurricane Harvey. The data, acquired from the National
Hurricane <https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/> Center, shows the path of
the hurricane eye as it traveled towards the Houston area. Around
August 27, 2017, the storm took a sharp turn to head north. But by
August 28, it was moving at just 7 kilometers (5 miles)
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90839/harvey-stalls-over-southeastern-texas>
per hour and wobbling along the south TX coast. Harvey
slowly and steadily dumped the largest amount of rainfall from a
tropical system on record for the continental United States.
Looking beyond Hurricane Harvey, Hall and NOAA atmospheric scientist
Jim Kossin analyzed all of the tropical cyclones from 1944-2017 in the
National Hurricane Center's HURDAT2 database, which provided the
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat> position of each storm center
in six-hour increments. For the storms that reached coastal regions,
the researchers calculated the average forward speed of each
storm. They also examined changes in storm track direction.
1944 - 2017
Hall and Kossin found that 66 North Atlantic storms lingered in a
coastal region for more than 2 days. Of these 66 stalls, nearly half
occurred in the last third of the 74 years they analyzed; only 17
occurred in the first third. They also found that storms that stalled
for longer periods tended to include more meanders. The plot above
shows the percentage of coastal hurricanes that stayed within a
200-kilometer radius of the US coast for at least 48 hours.
Out of all of the storms, there was one type that was more prone to
meandering and slowing down: storms that were already moving slowly.
Looking at rain gauge data, the researchers found that these
<https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.unified.daily.conus.html>
stalled storms unloaded more rainfall than those that did not.
"You want hurricanes to get out of your neighborhood as fast as
possible. So if they're moving slowly or meandering, that's very bad
for anyone who's in the neighborhood at the time," said Kossin. "The
main issue is rainfall flooding, which is the number one hurricane
hazard in terms of mortality risk."
Hall, Kossin, and colleagues are still investigating the reasons for
the increased stalling in North Atlantic storms, but they suspect it
involves weaker winds, which typically steer hurricanes. Like a cork
getting pushed by currents in a stream, a hurricane is moved around by
large-scale wind patterns in the atmosphere.
"There is some evidence that those large-scale wind patterns are
slowing down in the tropics, where Atlantic storms usually start,"
said Hall. "The storms are not being pushed as hard by the current
that moves them along. That's a climate change signal."
One projected effect of climate change is that air masses will move
more slowly around the world. As global temperatures rise, the Arctic
is warming faster than the tropics--a phenomenon called Arctic
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/81214/arctic-amplification>
amplification. As temperature differences between the tropics and high
latitudes decrease over time, so will the difference in air pressure,
leading to a reduction in winds.
"If you have a storm that's sitting in this really strong wind and
just barreling along, it's pretty unlikely to change directions. It
would have to run into some very interesting flow that might start to
slow it and cause it to start going somewhere else," said Kossin. "But
when a storm is sitting in fairly stagnant air and not really doing
much of anything, it's not terribly hard for it to change its
direction."
Image of the Day for June 7, 2019
Instruments:
GPM
In situ Measurement
Model
* Hall, T. M. and Kossin J. P. (2019) Hurricane stalling along the
North American coast and implications for rainfall. Nature Climate
and Atmospheric Science, (2), 17.
<https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0074-8>
* NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2019, June 3)
Hurricane Research Gains Ground. Accessed June 5, 2019.
<https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-research-2019>
--
Upcoming events:
18 Jun 2019 global release NOAA SOTC
09 Jul 2019 19Q2 bn-dollar disasters NOAA
24 Jul 2019 Apollo 11 moon landing 50th anniversary
GuardianLive @guardianlive Apr 22
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Audience roars and cheers!
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Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann Apr 17
Replying to @citizenservant @EcoSenseNow and 6 others
Never argue with clowns. Hire them for birthday parties sure, but don't
bother trying to discuss science with them...
[Dunning-Kruger Effect:]
<https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3OPGAIXsAAcZG0.jpg>
AccuWeather @breakingweather 11 Jun 2019 08:40Z
A new storm system will bring more rain and heavy, drenching downpours to
parts of the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic spanning Tue into
Wed: ow.ly/mV3r50uB9V2 pic.twitter.com/CtIlAVExqR
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the milestone has been reached. Heat wave continues across the West:
ow.ly/1R2r50uBihj pic.twitter.com/5AkoKsyI9I
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June #Climate Chaos So Far:
*India* burns as record 50C heat grips 700m people
*China* Record rainfall hits 2m people, entire town submerged under 2m of water
*US* Record floods in Midwest, Southeast; Alaska sea ice melting 2 months early
*Finland* never hotter so early in summer
pic.twitter.com/lQaUlwhqqu
Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 11 Jun 2019 13:25Z
Europe has been dealing with strong storms lately and Steff @WeatherSteff
has some images coming out of Germany of the damage coming up at 1325G
on aje.io/rhmlz
Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 11 Jun 2019 13:27Z
India's western state of Gujarat is preparing for Cyclone Vayu's landfall
late Wed
AccuWeather @breakingweather 11 Jun 2019 13:49Z
Parts of western India are bracing for impacts from strengthening Cyclone
Vayu, which is expected to slam into the country early Thu:
ow.ly/tGI550uBoE4 pic.twitter.com/G2aLw0H7SX
NOAA Satellites @NOAASatellites 11 Jun 2019 15:50Z
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California and Nevada on June 9, 2019. Solar panels reflect a lot of light
in the shortwave infrared bands, so that makes them stand out against the
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A plume of Saharan dust reaches beyond the Republic of Cabo Verde, which is
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Tropical Cyclones are Stalling More
Storms in the North Atlantic are lingering longer near the coast,
leading to significantly more rainfall
Kasha Patel, Earth Observatory
In Sept 2018, Hurricane Florence lingered in a confined region
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/92748/hurricane-florence>
near the North Carolina coast for 53 hours, becoming the wettest
tropical cyclone on record for the Carolinas. In 2017, Hurricane
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/90819/hurricane-harvey>
Harvey stalled for more than 100 hours in the northern Gulf of Mexico,
pumping disastrous amounts of moisture into TX. In 2008, Tropical
Storm Fay hovered near Florida for at least 66 hours and
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/20356/tropical-storm-fay>
became one of the most prolific rain-producing storms in the area.
(NASA Earth Observatory video and imagery by Joshua Stevens, using
data from Hall, T. M., and Kossin, J. P., (2019) and IMERG data
from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) at NASA/GSFC).
A new study says those stalls were not freak occurrences, but instead
fit with a growing trend of slower, longer-lasting hurricanes in the
North Atlantic. In a study published on June 3, 2019, scientists
<https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0074-8> from NASA and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed that North
Atlantic hurricanes have been moving slower and meandering more from
their average trajectory over the past 7 decades. The result has
been storms that stall more frequently and linger for longer periods
of time near the coast, leading to more rainfall over confined locations.
"Rain-driven flooding is especially exacerbated by these stalling
events," said Tim Hall, the study's lead author and a hurricane
researcher at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "If a storm
sits there for a longer period of time, there's more cumulative
rainfall and much greater flood risk."
The animation above shows a quintessential example of a stalling
storm: Hurricane Harvey. The data, acquired from the National
Hurricane <https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/> Center, shows the path of
the hurricane eye as it traveled towards the Houston area. Around
August 27, 2017, the storm took a sharp turn to head north. But by
August 28, it was moving at just 7 kilometers (5 miles)
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90839/harvey-stalls-over-southeastern-texas>
per hour and wobbling along the south TX coast. Harvey
slowly and steadily dumped the largest amount of rainfall from a
tropical system on record for the continental United States.
Looking beyond Hurricane Harvey, Hall and NOAA atmospheric scientist
Jim Kossin analyzed all of the tropical cyclones from 1944-2017 in the
National Hurricane Center's HURDAT2 database, which provided the
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat> position of each storm center
in six-hour increments. For the storms that reached coastal regions,
the researchers calculated the average forward speed of each
storm. They also examined changes in storm track direction.
1944 - 2017
Hall and Kossin found that 66 North Atlantic storms lingered in a
coastal region for more than 2 days. Of these 66 stalls, nearly half
occurred in the last third of the 74 years they analyzed; only 17
occurred in the first third. They also found that storms that stalled
for longer periods tended to include more meanders. The plot above
shows the percentage of coastal hurricanes that stayed within a
200-kilometer radius of the US coast for at least 48 hours.
Out of all of the storms, there was one type that was more prone to
meandering and slowing down: storms that were already moving slowly.
Looking at rain gauge data, the researchers found that these
<https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.unified.daily.conus.html>
stalled storms unloaded more rainfall than those that did not.
"You want hurricanes to get out of your neighborhood as fast as
possible. So if they're moving slowly or meandering, that's very bad
for anyone who's in the neighborhood at the time," said Kossin. "The
main issue is rainfall flooding, which is the number one hurricane
hazard in terms of mortality risk."
Hall, Kossin, and colleagues are still investigating the reasons for
the increased stalling in North Atlantic storms, but they suspect it
involves weaker winds, which typically steer hurricanes. Like a cork
getting pushed by currents in a stream, a hurricane is moved around by
large-scale wind patterns in the atmosphere.
"There is some evidence that those large-scale wind patterns are
slowing down in the tropics, where Atlantic storms usually start,"
said Hall. "The storms are not being pushed as hard by the current
that moves them along. That's a climate change signal."
One projected effect of climate change is that air masses will move
more slowly around the world. As global temperatures rise, the Arctic
is warming faster than the tropics--a phenomenon called Arctic
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/81214/arctic-amplification>
amplification. As temperature differences between the tropics and high
latitudes decrease over time, so will the difference in air pressure,
leading to a reduction in winds.
"If you have a storm that's sitting in this really strong wind and
just barreling along, it's pretty unlikely to change directions. It
would have to run into some very interesting flow that might start to
slow it and cause it to start going somewhere else," said Kossin. "But
when a storm is sitting in fairly stagnant air and not really doing
much of anything, it's not terribly hard for it to change its
direction."
Image of the Day for June 7, 2019
Instruments:
GPM
In situ Measurement
Model
* Hall, T. M. and Kossin J. P. (2019) Hurricane stalling along the
North American coast and implications for rainfall. Nature Climate
and Atmospheric Science, (2), 17.
<https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0074-8>
* NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2019, June 3)
Hurricane Research Gains Ground. Accessed June 5, 2019.
<https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-research-2019>
--
Upcoming events:
18 Jun 2019 global release NOAA SOTC
09 Jul 2019 19Q2 bn-dollar disasters NOAA
24 Jul 2019 Apollo 11 moon landing 50th anniversary
GuardianLive @guardianlive Apr 22
"How do you deal with a climate change denier?"
@GretaThunberg "I don't".
Audience roars and cheers!
#YouthStrike4Climate pic.twitter.com/hBvFgFg82N
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann Apr 17
Replying to @citizenservant @EcoSenseNow and 6 others
Never argue with clowns. Hire them for birthday parties sure, but don't
bother trying to discuss science with them...
[Dunning-Kruger Effect:]
<https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3OPGAIXsAAcZG0.jpg>
AccuWeather @breakingweather 11 Jun 2019 08:40Z
A new storm system will bring more rain and heavy, drenching downpours to
parts of the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic spanning Tue into
Wed: ow.ly/mV3r50uB9V2 pic.twitter.com/CtIlAVExqR
WorldEscrow NV/SA @WorldEscrow 11 Jun 2019 09:28Z
Artificial Islands to save wildlife! A project from the Netherlands. #AI
#ArtificialIntelligence #tech #technology #project #data #bigdata #wildlife
#climate #news #trending #programming pic.twitter.com/14Y8QVoNUf
Tens of 1000s of images stolen in US border hack
BBC News, 11 Jun 2019 11:39Z
Images of 10s of 1000s of people crossing the US border with Mexico have
been stolen in a major hack, the US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) has said.
Border Agency's Images of Travelers Stolen in Hack
The New York Times, 11 Jun 2019 01:15Z
Washington. Tens of 1000s of images of travelers and license plates
stored by the Customs and Border Protection agency have been stolen in a
digital ...
Follow The Money: Global Investors Flee Coal Power Like A Hot Potato
CleanTechnica, 11 Jun 2019 11:47Z
The renewable energy transition gathers steam as global investors ditch coal
power, but natural gas and nuclear stakeholders want a piece of the pie, too.
AccuWeather @breakingweather 11 Jun 2019 12:23Z
Mon was the first time the mercury reached 100 in San Francisco in any
month other than Sept and the first time since Sept 2, 2017, that
the milestone has been reached. Heat wave continues across the West:
ow.ly/1R2r50uBihj pic.twitter.com/5AkoKsyI9I
Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk 11 Jun 2019 12:30Z
June #Climate Chaos So Far:
*India* burns as record 50C heat grips 700m people
*China* Record rainfall hits 2m people, entire town submerged under 2m of water
*US* Record floods in Midwest, Southeast; Alaska sea ice melting 2 months early
*Finland* never hotter so early in summer
pic.twitter.com/lQaUlwhqqu
Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 11 Jun 2019 13:25Z
Europe has been dealing with strong storms lately and Steff @WeatherSteff
has some images coming out of Germany of the damage coming up at 1325G
on aje.io/rhmlz
Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 11 Jun 2019 13:27Z
India's western state of Gujarat is preparing for Cyclone Vayu's landfall
late Wed
AccuWeather @breakingweather 11 Jun 2019 13:49Z
Parts of western India are bracing for impacts from strengthening Cyclone
Vayu, which is expected to slam into the country early Thu:
ow.ly/tGI550uBoE4 pic.twitter.com/G2aLw0H7SX
NOAA Satellites @NOAASatellites 11 Jun 2019 15:50Z
#GOESWest spotted solar panels sparkling in the sunlight across parts of
California and Nevada on June 9, 2019. Solar panels reflect a lot of light
in the shortwave infrared bands, so that makes them stand out against the
landscape. More imagery: go.usa.gov/xmuHg pic.twitter.com/caQEHda8Kg
Jon Stewart excoriates lawmakers for skipping hearing on 9/11 victim fund |
TheHill
The Hill, 11 Jun 2019 17:12Z
Jon Stewart on Tue torched lawmakers in emotional testimony for failing
to attend a Sept 11th Victim Compensation Fund hearing, calling it ...
Russian reporter Ivan Golunov has 'fake' charges dropped following media
backlash
ABC News, 11 Jun 2019 17:46Z
Russian police abruptly drop drugs charges against journalist Ivan Golunov
in the face of anger from supporters threatening a mass protest, who allege
he was framed for reporting on corruption.
Another One Nation MP quits to go it alone, citing party 'frustrations'
ABC News, 11 Jun 2019 18:45Z
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has been hit by another MP defection, with
one of its 3 West Australian parliamentarians quitting to sit as an
independent.
[Projection 101:]
Trump says 'devalued' currencies put US at a disadvantage and the Fed
doesn't have a 'clue'
CNBC, 11 Jun 2019
President Donald Trump said Tue that the USD is at a
disadvantage compared with other major currencies like the euro as central
banks keep interest ...
Flu not the only illness to worry about this winter, with croup and
pneumonia also on rise
ABC/7.30, 11 Jun 2019 19:44Z
Health authorities are warning there has been a spike in both pneumonia and
the childhood condition croup in recent months, and the flu might to be blame.
NOAA Satellites @NOAASatellites 11 Jun 2019 19:51Z
A plume of Saharan dust reaches beyond the Republic of Cabo Verde, which is
located off the coast of northwest Africa, and across the tropical North
Atlantic Ocean in this #NOAA20 image from June 10, 2019. More imagery:
go.usa.gov/xmuSN pic.twitter.com/WD9JcrNDq9
Will Adani be the 'ice-breaker' for 6 more proposed Galilee mines?
ABC News, 11 Jun 2019 19:52Z
Mining lobbyists and environmentalists say a go-ahead for Adani tomorrow
would be monumental for the Galilee Basin, possibly paving the way for six
other mines in the region but analysts say some projects may not be viable.
[Finally!]
Flying taxis head to Melbourne as Uber Air trial announced
ABC News, 11 Jun 2019 19:55Z
The global ridesharing giant says it will use a fleet of vertical take-off
and landing aircraft to connect transport hubs like airports and CBD sites,
using car park roofs and existing helipads to run the service.
'Worst in living memory': Qld farmer spends $800,000 carting water
QLD Country Hour, 12 Jun 2019 06:29:50
A horror summer season has seen fruit and vegetable growers in Queensland go
to extraordinary lengths to grow crops.
Australian winter crop to bounce back
ABC Goldfields, 11 Jun 2019 20:09Z
After a disastrous season last year, the national winter crop is set to rise
significantly as rains arrive in WA, the national forecaster says.
Saudi Arabia Vows To Prevent Oil Crash
OilPrice.com, 11 Jun 2019 19:08Z
Oil prices rebounded a bit on Tue on Saudi assurances that OPEC+ ...
"Prices are finding support from the prospect of OPEC oil production ...
[LOL!]
Did Elon Musk Set A Trap For Tesla Shortsellers?
Financial Education, 10 Jun 2019 17:53Z
AGL launches $3b bid for telco company Vocus
ABC News, 11 Jun 2019 02:10Z
AGL has signalled an aggressive move to broaden its business away from
legacy coal-burning infrastructure to data infrastructure with its bid for
the telecommunications business Vocus.
Business conditions at their worst level since 2013, with retail 'clearly in
recession'
ABC News, 11 Jun 2019 02:11Z
Australia's private sector is losing momentum, with business conditions "
well below average" and weakening further, according to the National
Australia Bank's monthly business survey.
Catoni
Jun 11, 2019, 9:03:29 PM6/11/19
to
On Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 7:41:21 PM UTC-4, MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
> < https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145139/tropical-cyclones-are-stalling-more/>
>
> Tropical Cyclones are Stalling More
>
> Storms in the North Atlantic are lingering longer near the coast,
> leading to significantly more rainfall
Good ! ! That will take care of the Gore Bull Warming drought. lol... 555555 :)
> < https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145139/tropical-cyclones-are-stalling-more/>
>
> Tropical Cyclones are Stalling More
>
> Storms in the North Atlantic are lingering longer near the coast,
> leading to significantly more rainfall
Bret Cahill
Jun 12, 2019, 12:58:22 AM6/12/19
to
> > < https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145139/tropical-cyclones-are-stalling-more/>
> >
> > Tropical Cyclones are Stalling More
> >
> > Storms in the North Atlantic are lingering longer near the coast,
> > leading to significantly more rainfall
>
>
> Good ! ! That will take care of the Gore Bull Warming drought.
<CIA>
Catoni
Jun 12, 2019, 2:51:24 PM6/12/19
to
Bret Cahill
Jun 12, 2019, 6:46:45 PM6/12/19
to
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