great lakes water levels vs cc

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

The data seems pretty solid. Over 100 years some of the great lakes
have changed av water level by 1 m or even more.

Here are plots of USGS data (in m from the relevant reference site)
versus either N or S hem av temps from the NASA LOTI (in 1/100C).

While all the usual indicators were tested -- CO2, population levels, etc --
the hemispheric temps turned out to be the best explanations (maximized R2).

In general -- and as you would expect -- the N-most lakes are most
influenced by the N Hem temps and the S-most lakes by the S hem temps.

<http://graphs.kymhorsell.com/great-lakes/>

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[R Kym Horsell]

MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
> The data seems pretty solid. Over 100 years some of the great lakes
> have changed av water level by 1 m or even more.

...

A similar exercise for "best explanation" from precipitation records
is more revealing.

From a somewhat ratty personal selection of 60 stations across Canada the
idea is to find the best R2 between the precip data and the USGS lake level
for each lake.

Preciptation is boiled down to monthly series of avg daily precip mm
from the GHCN "dly" files for each stn.

Despite precip data coming from locations scatted across the country the
best models turned out to relate some station in Vancouver against each of
the lakes. Most of the coefficients (\betas) were -ve. IOW for each mm
of avg daily rainfall in Vancouver there was generally a corresponding
drop in lake level far to the east.

It seems for those lakes seeing a decline in water levels (of course some of
them are apparently increasing) it may well be precipitation that would
otherwise reach their catchments is getting dumped increasingly in coastal
BC thanks to increasing temps and atm wv levels.

Only a theory. :)

Here are the "best precipitation models" without all the fancy ML "optimal
binning" included (run a bit faster on the Vic 20):


Station Lake Lag (m) \beta R2
CA001105665 ontario 0 -0.00312223 +- 0.000528202 0.341664
CA001108465 montreal 3 0.0130627 +- 0.00262213 0.322351
CA001108465 superior 8 0.00298586 +- 0.000299012 0.279881
CA001108430 erie 0 -0.00635003 +- 0.000911348 0.170919
CA001108430 stclaire 1 -0.00708158 +- 0.00102951 0.165787
CA001108430 michigan 1 -0.00560394 +- 0.00102292 0.110573


The GHCN station codes above corresp with:

lat lng elev prov description
CA001105665 49.3500 -123.0667 308.0 BC N VANCOUVER N LONSDALE
CA001108465 49.2833 -123.1167 59.0 BC VANCOUVER PMO
CA001108430 49.2833 -123.1167 86.0 BC VANCOUVER CITY HALL

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Stapleford, but the tornado was also seen in other parts of the county. A
Met Office spokesman said: "It ...

Green Chile recalls over 250k pounds of burritos after possible
Listeria contamination
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Green Chile Food Co. is recalling 252,854 pounds of meat and poultry burrito

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[Catoni]

On Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 3:03:51 PM UTC-4, Kym Horsell wrote:
> MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
> > The data seems pretty solid. Over 100 years some of the great lakes
> > have changed av water level by 1 m or even more.

It's normal for the lake water levels to change.. But 15 years ago the Alarmists were predicting lower levels due to Gobal Warming..

Quote: "Lake levels are expected to decline in both inland lakes and Ontario's four Great Lakes,
as more moisture evaporates due to warmer temperatures and less ice cover."

From "Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region", 2003
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/publications/downloads/2003/OnSummaryFinal.pdf

(The Global Warming Alarmist fruit fly Doctor David Suzuki....LOL... Gordo's idol.... Ha, ha...)



Right now... the levels are a little higher than normal..... So much for leftist Alarmist predictions.

> A similar exercise for "best explanation" from precipitation records
> is more revealing.
>
> From a somewhat ratty personal selection of 60 stations across Canada the
> idea is to find the best R2 between the precip data and the USGS lake level
> for each lake.
>
> Preciptation is boiled down to monthly series of avg daily precip mm
> from the GHCN "dly" files for each stn.
>
> Despite precip data coming from locations scatted across the country the
> best models turned out to relate some station in Vancouver against each of
> the lakes. Most of the coefficients (\betas) were -ve. IOW for each mm
> of avg daily rainfall in Vancouver there was generally a corresponding
> drop in lake level far to the east.
>
> It seems for those lakes seeing a decline in water levels (of course some of
> them are apparently increasing) it may well be precipitation that would
> otherwise reach their catchments is getting dumped increasingly in coastal
> BC thanks to increasing temps and atm wv levels.
>
> Only a theory. :)

With the pevailing westerlies coming in from the Pacific.... you should EXPECT the coastal areas of B.C. to get the highest rainfall in the country... and some of the highest rainall levels in the world... as the moist air from the Pacific hits the coastal mountains and rises and dumps its moisture.

And in the real world.... that is exactly what happens.

The region happens to have one of the few TEMPERATE RAINFORESTS in the world.

Education is wonderful.....(as long as it's not leftist/socialist brainwashing indoctrination.)

[Catoni]

On Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 6:45:17 AM UTC-4, MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
> The data seems pretty solid. Over 100 years some of the great lakes
> have changed av water level by 1 m or even more.

Actually..... ever since the great ice sheets retreated, the Great Lakes have changed water levels by a meter or more.....

We call it ....."Normal".

I've lived between Lake Erie an Lake Ontario for 65 years....I was born here. Gone on travel and camping trips all around Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, Lake Superior amost every summer for years and years...

Were you aware that they can ...to some extent... control the water levels these days? ?

The locks and control dams of the St. Lawrence Seaway....(Ocean going ships can trade right to Thunder Bay on the west coast of Lake Superior.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Lawrence_Seaway#/media/File:Great_Lakes_and_St_Lawrence_Seaway_navigation.png

Back to school with you.

Watch out for socialist/SJW/Leftist "teachers" that will try to brainwash/indoctrinate you.

[gordo]

On Sun, 14 May 2017 16:11:35 -0700 (PDT), Catoni
<cato...@sympatico.ca> wrote:

>On Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 3:03:51 PM UTC-4, Kym Horsell wrote:
>> MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
>> > The data seems pretty solid. Over 100 years some of the great lakes
>> > have changed av water level by 1 m or even more.
>
>It's normal for the lake water levels to change.. But 15 years ago the Alarmists were predicting lower levels due to Gobal Warming..
>
>Quote: "Lake levels are expected to decline in both inland lakes and Ontario's four Great Lakes,
>as more moisture evaporates due to warmer temperatures and less ice cover."
>
>From "Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region", 2003
>http://www.davidsuzuki.org/publications/downloads/2003/OnSummaryFinal.pdf
>
> (The Global Warming Alarmist fruit fly Doctor David Suzuki....LOL... Gordo's idol.... Ha, ha...)

What the hell has Dr Suzuki got to do with this and when did I stop
being his idol. For gods sake Catoni, do try to keep up.

>
>
>
> Right now... the levels are a little higher than normal..... So much for leftist Alarmist predictions.
>
>
>
>> A similar exercise for "best explanation" from precipitation records
>> is more revealing.
>>
>> From a somewhat ratty personal selection of 60 stations across Canada the
>> idea is to find the best R2 between the precip data and the USGS lake level
>> for each lake.
>>
>> Preciptation is boiled down to monthly series of avg daily precip mm
>> from the GHCN "dly" files for each stn.
>>
>> Despite precip data coming from locations scatted across the country the
>> best models turned out to relate some station in Vancouver against each of
>> the lakes. Most of the coefficients (\betas) were -ve. IOW for each mm
>> of avg daily rainfall in Vancouver there was generally a corresponding
>> drop in lake level far to the east.
>>
>> It seems for those lakes seeing a decline in water levels (of course some of
>> them are apparently increasing) it may well be precipitation that would
>> otherwise reach their catchments is getting dumped increasingly in coastal
>> BC thanks to increasing temps and atm wv levels.
>>
>> Only a theory. :)
>
>
> With the pevailing westerlies coming in from the Pacific.... you should EXPECT the coastal areas of B.C. to get the highest rainfall in the country... and some of the highest rainall levels in the world... as the moist air from the Pacific hits the coastal mountains and rises and dumps its moisture.
>
> And in the real world.... that is exactly what happens.
>
> The region happens to have one of the few TEMPERATE RAINFORESTS in the world.
>
> Education is wonderful.....(as long as it's not leftist/socialist brainwashing indoctrination.)
>
>
>
>

---
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[R Kym Horsell]

gordo <grme...@shaw.ca> wrote:
> On Sun, 14 May 2017 16:11:35 -0700 (PDT), Cantany

> <cato...@sympatico.ca> wrote:
>>On Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 3:03:51 PM UTC-4, Kym Horsell wrote:
>>> MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
>>> > The data seems pretty solid. Over 100 years some of the great lakes
>>> > have changed av water level by 1 m or even more.
>>It's normal for the lake water levels to change.. But 15 years ago the Alarmists were predicting lower levels due to Gobal Warming..
>>Quote: "Lake levels are expected to decline in both inland lakes and Ontario's four Great Lakes,
>>as more moisture evaporates due to warmer temperatures and less ice cover."
>>From "Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region", 2003
>>http://www.davidsuzuki.org/publications/downloads/2003/OnSummaryFinal.pdf
>> (The Global Warming Alarmist fruit fly Doctor David Suzuki....LOL... Gordo's idol.... Ha, ha...)
> What the hell has Dr Suzuki got to do with this and when did I stop

> being his idol. For gods sake Cantany, do try to keep up.
...

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