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Climate To Inspire Exodus from Middle East, North Africa in Coming Decades
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Tom Sr.
May 6, 2016, 8:02:38 AM5/6/16
to
--------------
http://phys.org/news/2016-05-climate-exodus-middle-east-north-africa.html
*Climate-Exodus Expected in the Middle East and North Africa
by Max Planck Society
May 2, 2016
The number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in future. Researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia have calculated that the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario.
The temperature during summer in the already very hot Middle East and North Africa will increase more than two times faster compared to the average global warming. This means that during hot days temperatures south of the Mediterranean will reach around 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century. Such extremely hot days will occur five times more often than was the case at the turn of the millennium. In combination with increasing air pollution by windblown desert dust, the environmental conditions could become intolerable and may force people to migrate.
[GRAPHIC: Plagued by heat and dust: Desert dust storms such as here in Kuwait could occur more often in the Middle East and North Africa as a result of climate change. In addition, temperatures on very hot days could rise to 50 degrees Celsius on average in the region (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. Credit: Molly John, Flickr, Creative Commons]
More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa - a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. "In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy," says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.
Lelieveld and his colleagues have investigated how temperatures will develop in the Middle East and North Africa over the course of the 21st century. The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth's temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.
[GRAPHIC: Unbearably hot: In the Middle East and North Africa, the average temperature in winter will rise by around 2.5 degrees Celsius (left) by the middle of the century, and in summer by around five degrees Celsius (right) if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase according to the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8,5). The cross-hatching indicates that the 26 climate models used are largely in agreement, and the dotting indicates an almost complete match. Credit: MPI for Chemistry]
* By Mid-Century, 80 Instead of 16 Extremely Hot Days
In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. "If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections," says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.
Atmospheric researcher Jos Lelieveld is convinced that climate change will have a major impact on the environment and the health of people in these regions. "Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa. Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate," says Jos Lelieveld.
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.
In the now published study, Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, which is why the scientists used these models to project climate conditions for the period from 2046 to 2065 and the period from 2081 to 2100.
* Largest Temperature Increase in Already Hot Summers
The researchers based their calculations on two future scenarios: The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario roughly corresponds to the target set at the most recent UN climate summit, which means that global warming should be limited to less than two degrees Celsius.
The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations. It is therefore called the "business-as-usual scenario". According to this scenario, the mean surface temperature of the Earth will increase by more than four degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
In both scenarios, the strongest rise in temperature in the Middle East and North Africa is expected during summer, when it is already very hot, and not during winter, which is more common in other parts of the globe. This is primarily attributed to a desert warming amplification in regions such as the Sahara. Deserts do not buffer heat well, which means that the hot and dry surface cannot cool by the evaporation of ground water. Since the surface energy balance is controlled by heat radiation, the greenhouse effect by gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor will increase disproportionately.
Regardless of which climate change scenario will become reality: both Lelieveld and Hadjinicolaou agree that climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region.
------
More information: J. Lelieveld et al. 'Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century', Climatic Change (2016). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 [http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1665-6]
Journal reference: 'Climatic Change' [http://phys.org/journals/climatic-change/]
Provided by: Max Planck Society [http://phys.org/partners/max-planck-society/]
------------
SCIENCE.
REALITY.
. . . .
http://phys.org/news/2016-05-climate-exodus-middle-east-north-africa.html
*Climate-Exodus Expected in the Middle East and North Africa
by Max Planck Society
May 2, 2016
The number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in future. Researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia have calculated that the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario.
The temperature during summer in the already very hot Middle East and North Africa will increase more than two times faster compared to the average global warming. This means that during hot days temperatures south of the Mediterranean will reach around 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century. Such extremely hot days will occur five times more often than was the case at the turn of the millennium. In combination with increasing air pollution by windblown desert dust, the environmental conditions could become intolerable and may force people to migrate.
[GRAPHIC: Plagued by heat and dust: Desert dust storms such as here in Kuwait could occur more often in the Middle East and North Africa as a result of climate change. In addition, temperatures on very hot days could rise to 50 degrees Celsius on average in the region (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. Credit: Molly John, Flickr, Creative Commons]
More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa - a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. "In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy," says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.
Lelieveld and his colleagues have investigated how temperatures will develop in the Middle East and North Africa over the course of the 21st century. The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth's temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.
[GRAPHIC: Unbearably hot: In the Middle East and North Africa, the average temperature in winter will rise by around 2.5 degrees Celsius (left) by the middle of the century, and in summer by around five degrees Celsius (right) if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase according to the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8,5). The cross-hatching indicates that the 26 climate models used are largely in agreement, and the dotting indicates an almost complete match. Credit: MPI for Chemistry]
* By Mid-Century, 80 Instead of 16 Extremely Hot Days
In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. "If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections," says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.
Atmospheric researcher Jos Lelieveld is convinced that climate change will have a major impact on the environment and the health of people in these regions. "Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa. Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate," says Jos Lelieveld.
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.
In the now published study, Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, which is why the scientists used these models to project climate conditions for the period from 2046 to 2065 and the period from 2081 to 2100.
* Largest Temperature Increase in Already Hot Summers
The researchers based their calculations on two future scenarios: The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario roughly corresponds to the target set at the most recent UN climate summit, which means that global warming should be limited to less than two degrees Celsius.
The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations. It is therefore called the "business-as-usual scenario". According to this scenario, the mean surface temperature of the Earth will increase by more than four degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
In both scenarios, the strongest rise in temperature in the Middle East and North Africa is expected during summer, when it is already very hot, and not during winter, which is more common in other parts of the globe. This is primarily attributed to a desert warming amplification in regions such as the Sahara. Deserts do not buffer heat well, which means that the hot and dry surface cannot cool by the evaporation of ground water. Since the surface energy balance is controlled by heat radiation, the greenhouse effect by gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor will increase disproportionately.
Regardless of which climate change scenario will become reality: both Lelieveld and Hadjinicolaou agree that climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region.
------
More information: J. Lelieveld et al. 'Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century', Climatic Change (2016). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 [http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1665-6]
Journal reference: 'Climatic Change' [http://phys.org/journals/climatic-change/]
Provided by: Max Planck Society [http://phys.org/partners/max-planck-society/]
------------
SCIENCE.
REALITY.
. . . .
David Hartung
May 6, 2016, 8:22:42 AM5/6/16
to
Why this is marked as abuse? It has been marked as abuse.
Report not abuse
On 05/06/2016 07:02 AM, Tom Sr. wrote:
> --------------
> http://phys.org/news/2016-05-climate-exodus-middle-east-north-africa.html
>
> *Climate-Exodus Expected in the Middle East and North Africa
> by Max Planck Society
> May 2, 2016
>
> The number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in future. Researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia have calculated that the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario.
[...]
> --------------
> http://phys.org/news/2016-05-climate-exodus-middle-east-north-africa.html
>
> *Climate-Exodus Expected in the Middle East and North Africa
> by Max Planck Society
> May 2, 2016
>
> The number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in future. Researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia have calculated that the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario.
> SCIENCE.
>
>
> REALITY.
Chicken Little.
Message has been deleted
David Hartung
May 6, 2016, 8:32:05 AM5/6/16
to
Why this is marked as abuse? It has been marked as abuse.
Report not abuse
On 05/06/2016 07:30 AM, Yak wrote:
> Ask him about how those long gone "science" based Earth Day predictions worked out.
He refuses to discuss them.
He refuses to discuss them.
AlleyCat
May 6, 2016, 4:46:53 PM5/6/16
to
On Fri, 6 May 2016 05:02:36 -0700 (PDT), Tom Sr. says...
> REALITY.
What are you, fucking 12 years old?
(In best south Park kids voice) Reality. Reality. Reality. Gawd, you're
such a child.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dI9nSP2V5BI
We all know that Global Warming causes cold places to get colder, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dI9nSP2V5BI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hucf1twOhs
YOUR science is junk science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-IUAF3K54s
***************************************************
> "More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa
> already evident.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... and it's only BEEN like that for thousands, if
not millions of years, WITHOUT man.
> The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970.
Hmmm... did they count the number of "extreme hot days" in the 1930's?
How about the Medieval Warm Period. How about the Holocene Climatic
Maximum, or Optimum, if you prefer.
No... ALL of your bloggers and you NEVER go back in time, when man WAS
around, and temperatures WERE hotter than now, because that way, you can't
fool anyone.
Warming, after the last "mini-ice-age", started LONG before 1880, but you
screechers never talk about that, because you can't blame cars or man,
Exxon or Peabody... no one to tax for NATURAL warming.
If you screecher truly were looking out for the Earth and your fellow man,
you wouldn't be touting green energy and carbon taxes on a daily basis.
You and your fellow screechers' agendas, are so fucking transparent.
You don't CARE about saving the Earth...
You don't care about saving the planet...
http://tinypic.com/r/287d5yc/9
... you just want your fellow nut-bag left wingers to gain more power and
influence. This isn't about saving the planet... it's about politics,
money and power, and you damn well know it.
Besides, there is nothing wrong with the planet. NOTHING wrong with the
planet. The planet is fine. The PEOPLE are fucked. Difference.
Sounds like you might have a vested interest in green energy. Is that it?
Are you trying to build a little nest-egg with investments in green
energy. EVERY green energy product is causing MORE pollution, and I'm not
talking about CO², for one thing, THAT'S not a pollutant. The earth is
MUCH better off with a little MORE CO².
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JBaCYZGp7k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Lye5liWuZw
Can you please provide me a list of those scientist who believe man is
responsible for warming and climate change? Not groups or entities, like
NASA and The NOAA, but individual SCIENTISTS... you know, like Bill Nye,
Al Gore and President Obama.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Why are all YOUR scientists "anonymous" bloggers?
--
A "teabagger" is a male Liberal Democrat who performs fellatio on another
male Liberal Democrat... either sucking his balls or laying his genitals
on his partner's face. <snicker>
Tom Sr.
May 6, 2016, 5:00:19 PM5/6/16
to
Your *inability* to grasp Real Science, KKKat, is *not* an valid argument against it.
------
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/personal-incredulity
Your Logical Fallacy Is:
*Personal Incredulity*
Because you found something difficult to understand, or are unaware of how it works, you made out like it's probably not true.
Complex subjects like biological evolution through natural selection require some amount of understanding before one is able to make an informed judgement about the subject at hand; this fallacy is usually used in place of that understanding.
Example: Kirk drew a picture of a fish and a human and with effusive disdain asked Richard if he really thought we were stupid enough to believe that a fish somehow turned into a human through just, like, random things happening over time.
------
*** DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHHHHH! ***
. . .
Tom Sr.
May 6, 2016, 5:02:03 PM5/6/16
to
On Friday, May 6, 2016 at 8:22:42 AM UTC-4, David Hartung wrote:
> On 05/06/2016 07:02 AM, Tom Sr. wrote:
> > SCIENCE.
> >
> > REALITY.
> --
>
> Chicken Little.
Your *inability* to grasp Science, Pastor David Hartung, IS NOT an *valid* argument against it.
------
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/personal-incredulity
Your Logical Fallacy Is:
*Personal Incredulity*
Because you found something difficult to understand, or are unaware of how it works, you made out like it's probably not true.
Complex subjects like biological evolution through natural selection require some amount of understanding before one is able to make an informed judgement about the subject at hand; this fallacy is usually used in place of that understanding.
Example: Kirk drew a picture of a fish and a human and with effusive disdain asked Richard if he really thought we were stupid enough to believe that a fish somehow turned into a human through just, like, random things happening over time.
------
. . .
AlleyCat
May 6, 2016, 6:01:10 PM5/6/16
to
On Fri, 6 May 2016 14:00:18 -0700 (PDT), Tom Sr. says...
> Your *inability* to grasp Real Science, KKKat, is *not* an valid argument against it.
don't WANT to grasp your science, because YOUR science is JUNK chicken
little science, from bloggers who parrot REAL scientists, but twist it
into personal agendas.
Any real scientist you MIGHT quote, is just another of Obama's lackeys at
NASA or The NOAA, who need grants and money to keep their jobs and studies
going. They LIE to keep the money flowing, and to provide Obama the terms
of HIS agenda... to redistribute wealth and power BACK to the left.
*I* don't have to grasp YOUR "Real Science"... YOUR real science is a
bunch of "science editors", NOT REAL scientists.
I take my information from REAL scientists. Who are yours, wittle boy?
Al Gore?
Barack Obama?
Bill Nye the comedian?
I have posted REAL scientists ever since you squawked and screeched and Al
Gore brainwashed you into thinking that Global Warming was going to make
the poles ICE FREE by now.
What happened?
YOUR science = Fake
MY SCIENCE = REAL
YOUR scientists = anonymous government shills.
MY scientists = REAL and unafraid to come out publicly and acknowledge
their opposition to the junk science Obama pays his scientists to tout.
Here's my list of the sane and NOT paid by the government to lie,
scientists and experts in their fields of study, who KNOW man isn't
responsible for climate change.
I'll take these scientists over GOVERNMENT paid shills.
******************
These scientists have said that it is not possible to project global
climate accurately enough to justify the ranges projected for temperature
and sea-level rise over the next century.
They may not conclude specifically that the current IPCC projections are
either too high or too low, but that the projections are likely to be
inaccurate due to inadequacies of current global climate modeling.
Go ahead and laugh at all the "non-climatologists"... they match well with
all of the scientists the IPCC and others CLAIM as being a part of the
"consensus".
******************
David Bellamy, botanist.
Lennart Bengtsson, meteorologist, Reading University.
Piers Corbyn, owner of the business WeatherAction which makes weather
forecasts.
Judith Curry, Professor and former chair of the School of Earth and
Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of the School of Natural Sciences,
Institute for Advanced Study; Fellow of the Royal Society
Steven E. Koonin, theoretical physicist and director of the Center for
Urban Science and Progress at New York University
Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan emeritus professor of atmospheric
science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the
National Academy of Sciences
Craig Loehle, ecologist and chief scientist at the National Council for
Air and Stream Improvement.
Patrick Moore, former president of Greenpeace Canada
Nils-Axel Mörner, retired head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics
Department at Stockholm University, former chairman of the INQUA
Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)
Garth Paltridge, retired chief research scientist, CSIRO Division of
Atmospheric Research and retired director of the Institute of the
Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre, visiting fellow Australian
National University
Denis Rancourt, former professor of physics at University of Ottawa,
research scientist in condensed matter physics, and in environmental and
soil science
Harrison Schmitt, geologist, Apollo 17 Astronaut, former U.S. Senator.
Peter Stilbs, professor of physical chemistry at Royal Institute of
Technology, Stockholm
Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of
London
Hendrik Tennekes, retired director of research, Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute
Anastasios Tsonis, distinguished professor at the University of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Fritz Vahrenholt, German politician and energy executive with a
doctorate in chemistry
***********************
Scientists arguing that global warming is primarily caused by natural
processes.
These scientists have said that the observed warming is more likely to
be attributable to natural causes than to human activities. Their views
on climate change are usually described in more detail in their
biographical articles.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, astrophysicist at Pulkovo Observatory of the
Russian Academy of Sciences
Sallie Baliunas, retired astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
Astrophysics
Timothy Ball, historical climatologist, and retired professor of
geography at the University of Winnipeg
Robert M. Carter, former head of the school of earth sciences at James
Cook University
Ian Clark, hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences,
University of Ottawa
Chris de Freitas, associate professor, School of Geography, Geology and
Environmental Science, University of Auckland
David Douglass, solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics
and Astronomy, University of Rochester
Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington
University
William M. Gray, professor emeritus and head of the Tropical Meteorology
Project, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy;
emeritus professor, Princeton University
Ole Humlum, professor of geology at the University of Oslo
Wibjörn Karlén, professor emeritus of geography and geology at the
University of Stockholm.
William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World
Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology
David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the
Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware
Anthony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science at the University of
Missouri
Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil
Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
Tim Patterson, paleoclimatologist and professor of geology at Carleton
University in Canada.
Ian Plimer, professor emeritus of mining geology, the University of
Adelaide.
Arthur B. Robinson, American politician, biochemist and former faculty
member at the University of California, San Diego
Murry Salby, atmospheric scientist, former professor at Macquarie
University and University of Colorado
Nicola Scafetta, research scientist in the physics department at Duke
University
Tom Segalstad, geologist; associate professor at University of Oslo
Nir Shaviv, professor of physics focusing on astrophysics and climate
science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the
University of Virginia
Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Roy Spencer, meteorologist; principal research scientist, University of
Alabama in Huntsville
Henrik Svensmark, physicist, Danish National Space Center
George H. Taylor, retired director of the Oregon Climate Service at
Oregon State University
Jan Veizer, environmental geochemist, professor emeritus from University
of Ottawa
****************************
These scientists have said that no principal cause can be ascribed to
the observed rising temperatures, whether man-made or natural.
Syun-Ichi Akasofu, retired professor of geophysics and founding director
of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska
Fairbanks.
Claude Allègre, French politician; geochemist, emeritus professor at
Institute of Geophysics (Paris).
Robert Balling, a professor of geography at Arizona State University.
Pål Brekke, solar astrophysicist, senior advisor Norwegian Space
Centre.
John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth
System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville,
contributor to several IPCC reports.
Petr Chylek, space and remote sensing sciences researcher, Los Alamos
National Laboratory.
David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma.
Ivar Giaever, professor emeritus of physics at the Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute and a Nobel laureate.
Vincent R. Gray, New Zealand physical chemist with expertise in coal
ashes
Keith E. Idso, botanist, former adjunct professor of biology at Maricopa
County Community College District and the vice president of the Center
for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Antonino Zichichi, emeritus professor of nuclear physics at the
University of Bologna and president of the World Federation of
Scientists.
***********************************
These scientists have said that projected rising temperatures will be of
little impact or a net positive for society or the environment.
Indur M. Goklany, science and technology policy analyst for the United
States Department of the Interior
Craig D. Idso, faculty researcher, Office of Climatology, Arizona State
University and founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change
Sherwood B. Idso, former research physicist, USDA Water Conservation
Laboratory, and adjunct professor, Arizona State University
Patrick Michaels, senior fellow at the Cato Institute and retired
research professor of environmental science at the University of
Virginia
August H. "Augie" Auer Jr. (1940-2007), retired New Zealand MetService
Meteorologist and past professor of atmospheric science at the
University of Wyoming
Reid Bryson (1920-2008), Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in a 2007 magazine
interview that he believed global warming was primarily caused by
natural processes:
Robert Jastrow (1925-2008), American astronomer, physicist and
cosmologist. He was a leading NASA scientist. Together with Fred Seitz
and William Nierenberg he established the George C. Marshall Institute
to counter the scientists who were arguing against Reagan's Starwars
Initiative, arguing for equal time in the media. This institute later
took the view that tobacco was having no effect, that acid rain was not
caused by human emissions, that ozone was not depleted by CFCs, that
pesticides were not environmentally harmful and it was also critical of
the consensus view of anthropogenic global warming. Jastrow acknowledged
the Earth was experiencing a warming trend, but claimed that the cause
was likely to be natural variation.
Harold ("Hal") Warren Lewis (1923-2011), Emeritus Professor of Physics
and former department chairman at the University of California, Santa
Barbara. In 2010, after 67 years of membership, Lewis resigned from the
American Physical Society, writing in a letter about the "corruption"
from "the money flood" of government grants.
Frederick Seitz (1911-2008), solid-state physicist and former president
of the National Academy of Sciences and co-founder of the George C.
Marshall Institute in 1984.
Tom Sr.
May 6, 2016, 9:26:51 PM5/6/16
to
AlleyKKKat wrote.
------
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/personal-incredulity
Your Logical Fallacy Is:
*Personal Incredulity*
Because you found something difficult to understand, or are unaware of how it works, you made out like it's probably not true.
Complex subjects like biological evolution through natural selection require some amount of understanding before one is able to make an informed judgement about the subject at hand; this fallacy is usually used in place of that understanding.
Example: Kirk drew a picture of a fish and a human and with effusive disdain asked Richard if he really thought we were stupid enough to believe that a fish somehow turned into a human through just, like, random things happening over time.
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Tom Sr.
May 6, 2016, 9:31:25 PM5/6/16
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http://www.thewire.com/national/2013/04/12-million-americans-believe-lizard-people-run-our-country/63799/
*12 Million Americans Believe Lizard People Run Our Country*
by Philip Bump
April 2, 2013
About 90 million Americans believe aliens exist. Some 66 million of us think aliens landed at Roswell in 1948. These are the things you learn when there's a lull in political news and pollsters get to ask whatever questions they want.
Public Policy Polling has raised weird polls to an art form. During last year's presidential campaign, the firm earned a bit of a reputation for its unorthodox questions; for example, "If God exists, do you approve of its handling of natural disasters?"
Today PPP released the results of a national survey looking at common conspiracy theories. Broken down by topic and cross-referenced by political preference, the results will not inspire a lot of patriotism. If you need to defend your fellow countrymen, be sure to note that the margin of error is 2.8 percent.
We took the findings and arranged them from most- to least-believed. And, just to inspire additional shame, figured out how many actual Americans that meant must believe in things like the danger of fluoride in water. (28 million, if you're wondering.)
Conspiracy Percent believing Number of Americans believing
JFK was killed by conspiracy 51 percent 160,096,160
Bush intentionally misled on Iraq WMDs 44 percent 138,122,178
Global warming is a hoax 37 percent 116,148,195
Aliens exist 29 percent 91,035,072
New World Order 28 percent 87,895,931
Hussein was involved in 9/11 28 percent 87,895,931
A UFO crashed at Roswell 21 percent 65,921,948
Vaccines are linked to autism 20 percent 62,782,808
The government controls minds with TV 15 percent 47,087,106
Medical industry invents diseases 15 percent 47,087,106
CIA developed crack 14 percent 43,947,966
Bigfoot exists 14 percent 43,947,966
Obama is the Antichrist 13 percent 40,808,825
The government allowed 9/11 11 percent 34,530,544
Fluoride is dangerous 9 percent 28,252,264
The moon landing was faked 7 percent 21,973,983
Bin Laden is alive 6 percent 18,834,842
Airplane contrails are sinister chemicals 5 percent 15,695,702
McCartney died in 1966 5 percent 15,695,702
Lizard people control politics 4 percent 12,556,562
Just to further inspire conversation, PPP broke down belief in each theory by whom the respondent supported in the 2012 election. This yielded some genuinely interesting results.
For example, only three conspiracies were more commonly believed by Obama supporters: that Bush intentionally misled America about Iraq's WMDs (a massive 69 percent of his supporters believe that one), that the CIA launched the crack epidemic, and that the moon landing was faked. There are two theories with equal support among Obama and Romney supporters: that aliens exist and the one about fluoridation. Everything else, from lizard people to vaccines and autism to global warming being a hoax? Believed by more Romney supporters.
No conspiracy was less commonly believed than one suggesting that the government is populated by lizard people. But that's mostly because only 2 percent of Obama supporters believe the theory while 5 percent of Romney supporters do.
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Tom Sr.
May 7, 2016, 10:20:47 PM5/7/16
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