On 7/21/2017 1:45 PM, Tom Sr. wrote:
> On Friday, July 21, 2017 at 3:58:21 PM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote:
>> How many times are you going to repost that, Homo Hummel, you stupid
>> cocksucker?
>
>
> Oh, I think not as many times as I will be posting this
[snip]
Not interested. *Meanwhile*:
Mortality *increased* in 2014-2015 after full implementation of ACA,
even after controlling for an unforeseen surge in opioid-related deaths.
http://thefederalist.com/2017/04/25/running-numbers-mortality-rates-suggests-obamacare-killing-people/
The Centers for Disease Control collects U.S. mortality statistics
and publishes them in a database called WONDER. The database is
indeed a statistical wonder, allowing researchers to slice and dice
U.S. mortality data into segments by age, gender, location, year,
cause of morbidity, and many additional criteria.
With WONDER, it is a short exercise to attempt to confirm Wilper’s
predictions. Examining U.S. adult mortality in the decade prior to
Obamacare’s insurance expansion (2004-2013), the all-cause mean death
rate for ages 15 to 64 is 310.4 people per 100,000. The rate is
fairly steady over the decade, with a low of 306.8, a high of 313.5,
and a standard deviation of 2.2. If extending taxpayer-sponsored
insurance to 15 million people since 2013 has resulted in 21,000
fewer annual deaths, then the mean death rate should decrease from
310.4 to approximately 300.
Returning to the WONDER database for 2014-15 numbers, one finds the
mean death rate is … 320.4. Well, that is unexpected. Since Obamacare
provisions extended insurance coverage, the death rate has
substantially increased, by more than 20,000 deaths per year.
A correlation does not prove causation, of course, and since we
believe health insurance reduces mortality, there must be a
coincident event causing the spike in deaths since 2014. And there is
an apparent scapegoat. An opioid crisis has gripped the United States
since Obamacare insurance expansion was implemented.
Opioids have caused thousands of early deaths, enough to distort
mortality statistics in adult Americans, and the crisis worsened
noticeably in 2014-2015. Assuming the opioid crisis is independent of
Obamacare insurance expansion (for analysis purposes only, since some
work has suggested these two phenomena may be causally linked) may
eliminate the excess deaths and show the expected reduced mortality
from health care insurance.
Fortunately, WONDER allows researchers to separate causes of
morbidity, so it is a simple matter to repeat the analysis, excluding
drug-related and other external causes of death, and clear up the
confusion about the increased U.S. mortality.
What happens when we calculate the death rate after excluding all
external causes of morbidity (ICD-10 codes for deaths caused by
drugs, alcohol, assault, suicide, and accidents—in short, anything
that is not due to an internal illness)? For the decade 2004-2013,
the death rate is 247.4 people per 100,000 population. It is more
stable than the all-cause death rate, with a low of 244.7, a high of
249.9, and a standard deviation of 1.7.
With Obamacare extending insurance to 15 million more people, this
death rate should fall to 238 per 100,000. The 2014-15 data show the
actual reported death rate among U.S. adults, excluding external
causes, is … 252.9.
This is equivalent to an excess 11,000 annual U.S. adult deaths
relative to the pre-Obamacare steady state trends, and more than
32,000 annual deaths greater than predicted by academic studies
quantifying health benefits from improved insurance coverage. It is
more than three standard deviations higher than the pre-Obamacare
mean mortality, and it has persisted for the two full years, 2014—15,
for which mortality data have been compiled.
The ACA did not reduce mortality - it did not "prevent" any deaths. The
number of deaths *INCREASED* under the ACA. That's not to say the ACA
"caused" the extra deaths, but it unequivocally *DISPROVES* the claim
that the ACA would reduce mortality.