It’s official: Dave is King of Late Night
Gary
really matter here when he wasn't number 1. But still nice to be
number 1.
Gary
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http://blogs.kansascity.com/
It's a new day in late night, as Dave tops Conan in ratings; is it
better to be the King or the Prince?
Those of us monitoring the night-to-night ratings knew this was
coming, and now Nielsen has just made it official: For the first time
in nearly four years, "Late Show with David Letterman" beat "The
Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" in the weekly household ratings. And
the margin of victory was substantial enough that it suggests a change
in pecking order.
For now, Dave is the King of Late Night. It's unclear whether his
reign will be short-lived or not. Yes, there is that "Palin boost" he
got last Monday. But there is also (as anyone with access to the
overnight ratings can see) a continuing Conan sag. His nightly
audience has ebbed lower and lower over three weeks. Is 3.3 million
viewers per night the new level for "The Tonight Show"? It appears so,
but more time is needed to be sure. If that number holds, though,
Conan will indeed be the Prince of Late Night, because Dave has been
averaging 3.8 million viewers a night for much of the last year.
I think this news will bring a great deal of satisfaction to
Letterman's legion of followers. Many people have been waiting for
this day when Dave could claim to be #1 in late night again. But if
that makes Conan the Prince of Late Night, well, there is this
consolation: Like most princes, Conan has a lot more youth appeal than
the old man. And that will work in his favor, eventually.
Let's start by looking at CBS's PR from this morning. Notice how it
parses Conan's demographic victory:
LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight Show" in households (2.5/06 vs. 2.3/06,
+9%) and viewers (3.46m vs. 3.32m, +4%). LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight
Show" in viewers against an all-first run week of "Tonight Show"
broadcasts for the first time since the week ending December 2, 2005
(the week Oprah Winfrey appeared on LATE SHOW).
LATE SHOW has also narrowed the gap with "The Tonight Show" in adults
18-49, trailing by just -0.5 this week, compared to -0.6 last week and
by -1.4 rating points in Conan O'Brien's premiere week.
But as NBC's PR was only too happy to point out, that win in 18-49's
was more impressive than CBS made it out to be:
Despite the ratings boost that came with Letterman's apology to Gov.
Sarah Palin on the Monday, June 15 "Late Show," Conan's "Tonight"
dominated the week in every key demographic, stretching his leads
versus the same week last year and compared with the "Tonight" season-
to-date average. Conan won the week by a 67 percent margin in adult
18-49 viewers (1.8 million adults 18-49 vs. 1.1 million for "Late
Show"), up from a 53 percent win during the same week last year and up
from a 34 percent "Tonight" margin for the season through the end of
May.
It was almost a year ago that I ventured three possible scenarios for
Conan once he took over "The Tonight Show." The worst-case scenario
was based on his face plant in 1993, when 40 percent of Dave's
audience rejected the red-headed guy who took over "Late Night." The
"better-case" scenario called for Conan to lose 15-20 percent of his
audience but dominate in demos. That's where he seems to be headed,
though the losses in overall viewership will be more like 25 percent
(if the Conan sag levels off, and that's a big if).
Now look at Conan's popularity with the next generation of late-night
viewers:
In the younger half of the key 18-49 demographic, adults 18-34, Conan
won the week by a towering 164 percent margin (930,000 adults 18-34
vs. "Late Show's" 352,000), up from 103 percent for the same week last
year and up from 50 percent for "Tonight" this season through the end
of May. (NBC)
So what does this all mean? It means both men are winners, which was
the point Jay Leno was always trying to make, except most people
didn't listen because Dave (although he never said as much) clearly
didn't take a lot of satisfaction in being a well-paid runner-up.
I'm not saying things will be hunky-dory going forward. But the
competition will probably be a little friendlier than it was between
Jay and Dave (who, after all, appeared on Conan's show in 1994 and
gave it his wholehearted stamp of approval).
Forty-five years ago, Johnny Carson said he was happy to cede the
title of "King of Late Night" to his predecessor on the "Tonight
Show," the great Jack Paar, and that he would be glad to accept the
title of Prince. He said this knowing full well that eventually people
would forget about Paar and quietly he, Carson, would ascend to the
throne.
And of course, we all know what happened 20 years after that. Dave
came along. And while Johnny's audience remained much larger than
Dave's, it was older, and the network started charging sponsors more
money to advertise on Dave's show than Johnny's show.
Something tells me Conan O'Brien knows this history all too well.
________________________________________
Finally, on a personal note, thank you to whoever at the "Tonight
Show" read my last piece about the overly long show intros and took it
to heart. For one night and one night only last week, executive
producer Jeff Ross tried opening the show without the standing
ovation. OK, I'll admit the effect was minimal. But it was nice to
know someone shared some viewers' concerns. (Also, is it me or did
Conan start saving the "string dance" until later in the monologue,
like I suggested? Ahhhhhh, probably just a coincidence.)
Donz5
'Late Show' outdraws 'Tonight' for first time since '05
http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/06/late-show-outdraws-tonight-for-first-time-since-05.html
The "Late Show" drew more viewers than the "Tonight Show" in last
week's ratings -- the first time the CBS program has pulled a larger
audience for a full-week average since 2005. NBC's program still
firmly won among the key adult demo.
"Late Show" averaged 3.5 million viewers and a 0.8 rating and "Tonight
Show" averaged 3.3 million and a 1.3 rating.
Though the adult demo is considered more important to advertisers, and
is therefore, well, more important, CBS winning in viewers hasn't
happened in years and this is the smallest "Tonight Show" weekly
audience on record (since at least 1992).
NBC countered that Conan O'Brien won "in every important demo" and
said the "Tonight" audience is 11 years younger than David
Letterman's. Also, Conan's demographic lead over Letterman is better
than Leno's last year.
CBS notes that the margin between the two programs in the demo keeps
narrowing, going from a 1.4 spread during premiere week to 0.6 two
weeks ago to 0.5 this past week.
Here's full weekly averages for all the late-night programs:
ADULTS 18-49
11:35 p.m. ET
NBC "Tonight," 1.3 rating, 6 share
CBS "Late Show," 0.8/3
ABC "Nightline," 0.7/3
12:05 a.m. ET
ABC "Kimmel," 0.4/2*
12:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Late Night," 0.7/4
CBS "Late Late Show," 0.4/3
1:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Last Call," 0.4/3*
TOTAL VIEWERS
11:35 p.m. ET
NBC "Tonight," 3.3 million viewers
CBS "Late Show," 3.5 million viewers
ABC "Nightline," 3.0 million viewers
12:05 a.m. ET
ABC "Kimmel," 1.3 million viewers*
12:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Late Night," 1.6 million viewers
CBS "Late Late Show," 1.5 million viewers*
1:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Last Call," 0.9 million viewers*