False. All this nonsense comes from only one rightwing kook who's been
spreading these lies and Trump just repeats them.
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2016
People
Promises
Pants On Fire
About Us
Pants on Fire!
Trump
Says he "won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who
voted illegally."
— Donald Trump on Sunday, November 27th, 2016 in a tweet
Donald Trump's Pants on Fire claim that millions of illegal votes cost
him popular vote victory
By Louis Jacobson on Monday, November 28th, 2016 at 2:44 p.m.
Trump claimed that without the "millions of people that voted
illegally," that he would have wont he popular vote. Pants on Fire!
President-elect Donald Trump provoked a firestorm on social media with a
series of tweets on Nov. 27 that questioned the integrity of the
balloting that elected him president.
In one tweet, Trump wrote, "In addition to winning the Electoral College
in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of
people who voted illegally."
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won
the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 27, 2016
He later tweeted, "Serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and
California - so why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias -
big problem!"
These tweets offer a cornucopia of assertions we’ve already debunked,
including the notion that Trump won the Electoral College in a
"landslide" (False), that he won the popular vote (Pants on Fire), and
that 3 million votes were cast by illegal aliens (False).
We found zero evidence for Trump’s charge that he "won the popular vote
if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally," and a lot of
reasons to conclude that it didn’t happen.
The current status of the vote
Almost three weeks after Election Day, the ballots are mostly — but not
entirely — counted.
The most comprehensive vote-tracking analysis is published by David
Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. As of noon on Nov.
28, according to Wasserman’s calculations, Hillary Clinton led Trump by
roughly 2.24 million votes -- specifically, 64,654,483 for Clinton,
62,418,820 for Trump, and 7,192,036 for other candidates.
Late ballot tabulations in some states are still trickling in -- many of
them states, such as California, where Clinton fared overwhelmingly
well. For this reason, Wasserman tweeted on Nov. 26 that Clinton seems
to be on track to win the popular vote by 2.5 million to 2.7 million
votes, or a margin of about 2 percentage points over Trump.
So to erase Trump’s popular-vote deficit, there would need to be almost
3 million votes for Clinton that were cast illegally. And that assumes
that all 3 million of these "illegal votes" went to Clinton and not a
single one went to Trump.
That’s a really big number. For a sense of scale, 3 million votes is
more than were cast for any presidential candidate in 36 states plus the
District of Columbia. And 3 million people is more than a quarter of the
estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States — a
group that InfoWars specifically singled out as the source of 3 million
illegal votes.
A lack of evidence
As we’ve previously noted, conspiracy-minded websites — notably Alex
Jones’ InfoWars — have posted articles claiming that 3 million votes in
the presidential election were "cast by illegal aliens." We rated that
False.
As evidence of its claim, InfoWars’ headline referred to a report from
VoteFraud.org and tweets from Gregg Phillips, whose Twitter profile says
he’s the founder of VoteStand, a voter fraud reporting app.
However, there is no report from VoteFraud.org, and Phillips told
PolitiFact he is not affiliated with that website. Tweets by Phillips on
Nov. 11 and Nov. 13 said that "we have verified more than 3 million
votes cast by non-citizens" and that Phillips had "completed analysis of
database of 180 million voter registrations. Number of non-citizen votes
exceeds 3 million. Consulting legal team."
Phillips has not responded to PolitiFact’s queries for additional
information. He told us previously that he has chosen not to release
more information because he is still working on analyzing the data and
verifying its accuracy. Phillips would not say what the data is or where
it came from, or what methodology he used. He said he would release the
information publicly once he is finished.
On a Nov. 28 conference call with reporters, Trump spokesman Jason
Miller mentioned two pieces of evidence that Trump had also cited
earlier in the campaign. One was a 2012 Pew Center on the States study
whose author denies that it found any evidence of voter fraud. The other
was a 2014 article posted on the Monkey Cage blog hosted by the
Washington Post; it prompted multiple articles by other political
scientists casting doubt on its accuracy. In any case, neither study
offers analysis of the 2016 electoral returns.
True the Vote, a group that has argued that election fraud is
widespread, gave Trump’s comment rhetorical support but did not provide
specific evidence.
Backing from elected Republicans was scarce. One GOP senator, James
Lankford of Oklahoma, said on CNN's New Day, "I don't know what (Trump)
was talking about on that one." He added that while there may be
irregularity "on the edges," he has "not seen any voter irregularity in
the millions."
Voter fraud uncommon
Other research suggests that voter fraud is not widespread.
• News21, a national investigative reporting project funded by the
Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John S. and James L. Knight
Foundation, found just 56 cases of noncitizens voting between 2000 and 2011.
• A report by the liberal Brennan Center for Justice at New York
University School of Law found that most cases of noncitizens voting
were accidental. "Although there are a few recorded examples in which
noncitizens have apparently registered or voted, investigators have
concluded that they were likely not aware that doing so was improper,"
reads the 2007 report.
• In 2012, Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s administration started an effort
trying to crack down on noncitizens voting by comparing driver's license
data against voter rolls. The Florida Department of State created a list
of 182,000 potential noncitizens that had voted. That number was
whittled down to 2,700, then to about 200 before the purge was stopped
amid criticism that the data was flawed given the number of false
positives — including a Brooklyn-born World War II vet. Ultimately, only
85 people were removed from the rolls.
Meanwhile, ProPublica, an investigative journalism project, tweeted that
"we had 1,100 people monitoring the vote on Election Day. We saw no
evidence the election was ‘rigged’ " and "no evidence that undocumented
immigrants voted illegally."
Experts unconvinced
Experts dismissed the substance of Trump’s tweet.
"This is patently false," said Costas Panagopoulos, a Fordham University
political scientist. "There would need to be a massive national
conspiracy and coordination effort to do this, and illegal aliens would
need to be on the voter rolls in states across the country months
earlier to be eligible to vote. It is also very convenient the estimated
fraudulent vote is just enough to give Trump the popular vote. Not
likely a coincidence."
Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz added, "If Mr.
Trump seriously believes that there was significant vote fraud in any
state, he should file a formal protest and ask for an investigation. He
does not — he is simply repeating baseless claims."
And University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket said the claim
is short on basic logic.
"It’s bizarre to claim that Clinton had the ability to generate millions
of illegal voters but not use them to help her win the Electoral
College," Masket said.
Our ruling
Trump tweeted that he "won the popular vote if you deduct the millions
of people who voted illegally."
Neither Trump nor his allies have presented any evidence of widespread
illegal voting. In reality, studies have consistently shown that voter
fraud is nowhere near common enough to call into question millions and
millions of votes.
Indeed, the ability to carry off such a far-reaching conspiracy —
potentially involving millions of people over the course of several
months and without being noticed by election administration officials,
many of them in states controlled by Republicans — is ridiculously
illogical. We rate Trump’s statement Pants on Fire.
Editor's note, Nov. 28, 5:00 p.m.: This post has been updated to include
references to Miller's conference call. The rating remains unchanged.
https://www.sharethefacts.co/share/9c4a231c-afbc-4351-96ba-2379fc5a2f5a
Elections 2016
November 30, 2016 10:41 AM
Kobach backs Trump’s unsupported claim of millions illegally voting
1 of 2
The top election official in Kansas claimed that millions voted
illegally in 2016, but can't point to hard evidence to support that.
(Nov. 30, 2016/Bryan Lowry/The Wichita Eagle)
blo...@wichitaeagle.com
By Bryan Lowry
blo...@wichitaeagle.com
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The top election official in Kansas asserted without evidence that
millions of noncitizens voted in the presidential election moments after
he certified the state’s election results on Wednesday.
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who made his first public
appearance since meeting with President-elect Trump last week, backed
Trump’s claims that he would have won the popular vote if illegal votes
were discounted.
“I think the president-elect is absolutely correct when he says the
number of illegal votes cast exceeds the popular vote margin between him
and Hillary Clinton at this point,” Kobach said immediately after he and
other Kansas officials certified the state’s election results.
Kobach pointed to a study released by two Old Dominion University
political scientists in 2014, which has been rebutted repeatedly by
other election scholars.
The study analyzed data from the Cooperative Congressional Election
Study and found that self-reported noncitizens voted at a rate of 11.3
percent. The Old Dominion analysts actually lowered the estimate for the
total voting rate by noncitizens to 6.4 percent, but Kobach used the
11.3 percent figure.
“If we apply that number to the current presidential election … you’d
have 3.2 million aliens voted in the presidential election, and that far
exceeds the current popular vote margin between President-elect Trump
and Secretary Clinton,” Kobach said.
No tangible evidence
Kobach said he had no tangible evidence to support that statement.
“This is the problem with aliens voting and registering. There’s no way
you can look at the voter rolls and say this one’s an alien, this one’s
a citizen,” Kobach said. “Once a person gets on a voter roll, you don’t
have any way of easily identifying them as aliens, so you have to rely
on post-election studies.”
The Cooperative Congressional Election Study, the source of the raw data
for the study, has disputed the Old Dominion analysts’ conclusions,
calling their study biased and saying in 2014 “that the likely percent
of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.”
Kobach has repeatedly cited the study in court documents, according to
Mark Johnson, a Kansas City-based attorney who has represented suspended
voters in multiple lawsuits against Kobach.
The study is based on responses to an online survey. Patrick Miller, a
political scientist at the University of Kansas, said the data should be
viewed with skepticism.
“He’s taking that at face value,” Miller said. “Whereas, we know that
people often give trash responses in surveys all the time.”
Kobach also said he had no way to prove that the majority of noncitizens
would have voted for Clinton rather than Trump but said he could make
that inference based on the candidates’ policies.
“You’re right. Can you necessarily conclude that all of them voted for
Hillary Clinton? No. But you can probably conclude that a very high
percentage voted for Hillary Clinton given the diametric opposite
positions of the candidates on the immigration issue,” Kobach said. “So
let’s assume 85 percent voted for Clinton.”
‘Lives in another universe’
State Rep. Jim Ward, D-Wichita, a frequent critic of Kobach’s, scoffed
at this extrapolation.
“Does it concern you that the chief election officer of Kansas lives in
another universe?” Ward said. “I mean, (he) just makes things up and has
no verification or backup but just continues to say them, thinking that
if I say them over and over again, they must be true.”
Kobach has championed a Kansas law that requires voters to provide proof
of citizenship, such as a birth certificate or passport, in order to
register to vote. That law has faced numerous legal challenges.
Dale Ho, the director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Voting
Rights Project, said in an e-mail that the study Kobach is citing has
been debunked. He noted that even one of its authors has said that it’s
not plausible that illegal votes would have tipped the popular vote in
Clinton’s favor.
“Kris Kobach’s assertions about large numbers of noncitizens voting are
patently false and have been rejected repeatedly by federal courts,”
said Ho, who represented suspended voters in a case against Kansas’
proof of citizenship law.
Ho pointed to the recent ruling by the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals,
which blocked Kobach from requiring proof of citizenship from voters who
register at the DMV. Judge Jerome Holmes, an appointee of President
George W. Bush’s, called Kobach’s argument about thousands of
noncitizens potentially on Kansas voter rolls “pure speculation” in his
opinion for the court.
Advising Trump
A photograph of Kobach showed that when he met with Trump earlier in
November, he brought a plan for the Department of Homeland Security that
included a reference to voter rolls.
Kobach, who advised Trump on immigration issues throughout the campaign,
would not say Wednesday whether he was advising the president-elect to
pursue a nationwide proof of citizenship requirement.
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Noncitizen voters. Big problem or negligible?
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and National ACLU attorney Sophia
Lakin argued in court Wednesday over whether the state can legally
exclude federally registered voters from state and local elections if
they don't provide documented proof of citizen
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Johnson questioned Kobach’s decision to certify the election results if
he believes that noncitizens vote at such a high rate. Kobach did not
raise it as a concern to Gov. Sam Brownback before they officially
certified the results.
“If the secretary seriously believed that there was voter fraud in
Kansas, why did he certify the election results?” Johnson said.
Johnson noted that since Kobach became the only secretary of state in
the nation with the power to prosecute voter fraud last year, he has not
brought any cases against noncitizens for illegally voting, including
for elections that predate the proof of citizenship law.
“He can’t find them and, believe me, I’ll bet you he’s been looking for
them,” Johnson said.
Kobach’s office said in an e-mail that if it “obtains specific evidence
that a specific individual who is not a U.S. citizen voted, and that
crime occurred prior to the running of the statute of limitations, then
the Kansas Secretary of State will pursue criminal charges where
sufficient evidence can be presented to the relevant court.”
Recount effort
Trump began making the claims about illegal votes after Green Party
candidate Jill Stein began an effort to hold recounts in Michigan,
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, three states that tipped the election in
Trump’s favor after he won them by a combined 114,000 votes.
Clinton has a lead in the national popular vote by more than 2 million
votes.
Trump’s spokesman, Jason Miller, pointed to the recount efforts earlier
this week when asked about the president-elect’s unsubstantiated claims
regarding illegal voting.
“I really do think that it’s been ridiculous that so much oxygen has
been given to a recall effort with no chance of election results
changing,” Miller told reporters Monday. “The election results have been
decided. It’s also important that so much time and attention is going to
be given to recount efforts.”
Clay Barker, the executive director of the Kansas Republican Party,
stopped short of supporting Kobach’s claims of noncitizen voting
Wednesday, saying, “I hear a lot of claims. I’m not sure what he’s
basing it on.”
County cases
Kobach has repeatedly pointed to Sedgwick County to support his claim of
widespread voter fraud and did again on Wednesday.
Documents from Kobach’s office show that 11 noncitizens became
registered between 2003 and 2010. However, only three of them ever cast
a ballot. Another 14 tried to register since 2013 but were blocked from
doing so because of the proof of citizenship requirement.
Judges at both the state and federal level have called this insufficient
evidence to support the need for Kobach’s voting restrictions.
“Even when weighed against the 25 Sedgwick County individuals identified
by the Defendant who attempted to register to vote over a period of 13
years, the denial of more than 18,000 individuals’ right to vote far
eclipses the Defendant’s demonstrated – and undeniable – interest in a
secure election,” wrote Shawnee County Judge Larry Hendricks earlier
this month when he ruled that Kobach lacked the authority to set up a
tiered voting system.
Contributing: Hunter Woodall of the Kansas City Star and Anita Kumar of
the McClatchy Washington Bureau
Bryan Lowry:
785-296-3006, @BryanLowry3
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Read more here:
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article117933098.html#storylink=cpy