"Safer and more pleasant"? For those bicycle riders who are frightened, incompetent, and ignorant, sidepaths make them feel much safer while actually aggravating the dangers of crossing and turning traffic. While those cyclists who understand traffic recognize the added dangers, added complications, and degradation of their status as drivers of vehicles. On 11/27/2017 7:49 PM, Neal Henderson wrote: -- John Forester, MS, PE Bicycle Transportation Engineer 7585 Church St, Lemon Grove, CA 91945 619-644-5481, fore...@johnforester.com |
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Ron Richings advocates the system that was invented by Motordom for the express purpose of making motoring more convenient by frightening cyclists off the roadways, just as Motordom had earlier frightened pedestrians off the roadways. Motordom knew that motorists' greatest problem with cycle traffic was that it slowed motorists down. That enabled Motordom to then get away with the argument that the greatest danger to cyclists is motor traffic that would have to slow down. And so to argue, and get laws enacted, saying that if a cyclist got in the way of motorists he was likely to be killed. Motordom's argument is false both logically (Think about it. Should the fact that motor traffic can go faster than bicycle traffic give motorists the right to run over cyclists?) and factually. Factually, only 5% of car-bike collisions are caused by same-direction motor traffic, while 95% are caused by turning and crossing movements. Presumably, Richings advocates Motordom's system for bicycle traffic because he believes Motordom's arguments. Presumably, Richings is another of those who are ignorant (meaning they don't know the traffic facts) and frightened (else they would advocate for cyclists instead of for motorist convenience) and, presumably, incompetent when cycling in traffic (if they were competent in traffic they would be vehicular cyclists instead of being cyclist-inferiority advocates).
It should be obvious that Motordom's system removes cyclists from
the position of having the rights of drivers of vehicle. Under
Motordom's system cyclists don't have the rights of drivers of
vehicle; indeed it is difficult to say what rights they have.
Now look at how Richings presents foolish arguments against my position. Note, carefully, that the distinction I consider is that of understanding how traffic operates according to the rules of the road. "Cyclists fare best when they act and are treated as drivers of vehicles." Richings argues that only middle-aged and older men are able to understand how traffic operates, calling this "testosterone poisoning", while women and children cannot understand how traffic operates and therefore cannot obey the rules of the road. Well, there is no organizational or governmental hindrance to women, as a sex, driving automobiles and trucks. We consider them just as capable as men. As for children, it has been shown that the rules of the road are based on easy-to understand principles, so that learning to obey them (which doesn't mean quoting their words) is no more difficult than learning how to play soccer, or cricket, or baseball, or any of the other popular games played by children.
Richings' problem is that, with a population, including himself,
who have been frightened that obeying the rules of the road will
kill them, how to encourage bicycle traffic. One way is to
encourage people to cycle according to the rules of the road for
drivers of vehicles. Effective Cycling was an older way to do
this; Cycling Savvy is the current most effective way. The other
way is to do just what Motordom wants; advocate for facilities
that enable a crude form of bicycle traffic operating on
facilities that increase the dangers of turning and crossing
movements (95% of car-bike collisions) at much greater expense and
difficulty, while denigrating cyclists' rights on the roadway as
drivers of vehicles.
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Hello John Forester and All,
I am late in responding to your earlier posts to me …. herewith catching up ….
In response to ‘Let’s Hear It For Vancouver’ … https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/12/9/13897078/walkable-vancouver-video
John wrote: "Safer and more pleasant"? For those bicycle riders who are frightened, incompetent, and ignorant, sidepaths make them feel much safer while actually aggravating the dangers of crossing and turning traffic. While those cyclists who understand traffic recognize the added dangers, added complications, and degradation of their status as drivers of vehicles.
And in response to Fear narrows the path toward more bicycling? John wrote: Neal's vision of using cycling crash analysis to improve the safety of cycling is most unlikely to ever be implemented. Neal, can't blame him, does not know the history of before his time. The task he mentions was done in 1976, the Cross report. But the knowledge thus gained was entirely rejected for two reasons. The first reason is that it disproves the DOT/Motordom policy of cyclist inferiority. The second reason, coming later in time, is that it contradicts the bike activists' policy of cyclist inferiority.
===========================================
Responding to John’s familiar prose is fun …. since John is 88 years old which makes us almost contemporaries ….. as I go into the most excellent 85-89 age group for triathlons on 1 Jan 2017 …. to be the new kid on the block … no small advantage when racing ....
At this age (according to the US Census Bureau) we have outlived about ¾ or our cohort now and have about 5 years left ….. if we are average …. before the grim reaper closes in on one or both of us …. and we are dead.
As John describes it …. he has “some ‘decrepitude’ of knee, hip, and shoulder that has restricted or eliminated his two-wheel bicycling for some time …. (John ....to continue please go to ‘Bicycles and Infrastructure’ group at
https://groups.google.com/group/bicycles-infrastructure
and the Topic ‘Let’s Hear It For Vancouver’.)
Cheers,
Neal
+1 mph Faster
This reply does not consider cycling, but my physical condition as introduced by Neal.
I don't have any hip problems. My right knee started giving
problems when I was 19 years old. But I did military service,
summer mountaineering, winter skiing (including snow camping),
folk dancing of many types, cycling all over California, fencing.
There was never a diagnosis of why my knee hurt at different
times; nothing showed up on any non-invasive examination as new
methods were invented. But as my knee's condition deteriorated I
had to give up each of the above activities, until all I could do
twenty years ago, except cycling, was to shuffle along instead of
walking. Then my shoulders grew painful, particularly at the
posture required for cycling; the pain became so painful that I
could cycle for only a quarter of an hour.
Last spring I shuffled onto a sloping road (I was inspecting a
pothole at the steep turn of La Jolla Shores Drive, where a
cyclist had crashed.) where my knee became so painful that I could
not think of anything else and could neither go up nor down. I got
rescued by a motorist. That made me eligible for replacement knee
surgery (my physician, when asked, said I may live to one
hundred), which surgery was done in July. As soon as you wake up
from surgery they hold you standing and trying to walk. My surgery
went extremely well; no complications. My son stayed at my house
for ten days. After he left I attempted my first outside walk.
Half a block on the level, and I felt I had to return, when I fell
onto my bed completely exhausted and stayed there for half an
hour. I had set my goal on regaining condition for participating
in some of the Natural History Museum nature walks, and doing an
evening of folk dancing. Three months of walking on level
sidewalks with gradually extending length, and one month of
walking on trails, often getting to real tiredness where I had to
rely on my stick for stability as my legs wobbled. I worried that
I had reached the most I could do. Then yesterday I managed to
increase my trail distance from 1.0 miles to 1.8 miles, finishing
without either pain or exhaustion. That was the best walk I had
had in twenty years. Maybe I have persuaded my body to return to
proper operation, and I may reach my goals.
Hello John Forester and All,
At this age (according to the US Census Bureau) we have outlived about ¾ or our cohort now and have about 5 years left ….. if we are average …. before the grim reaper closes in on one or both of us …. and we are dead.
As John describes it …. he has “some ‘decrepitude’ of knee, hip, and shoulder that has restricted or eliminated his two-wheel bicycling for some time ….
Cheers,
Neal
+1 mph Faster
Neal states views about both my mechanical knowledge and my traffic skills.
He claims that I need the assistance of Serge to get a bicycle in
working order. Well, the first set of wheels that I built was in
1943. The first bike I purchased for myself (as opposed to being
given by my parents) consisted of a frame ordered from a builder
in New York and all the other parts ordered from Holdsworth in
London, which I assembled myself in 1949. In those days, the
supply of parts and services for good bicycles was very thin;
cyclists had to be much more self reliant than today. Over the
years I did more than most. I brazed up carrier racks for bicycles
without such, brazed on many fittings (including mounts for
generators and lamps, which I sold), I built several replacement
front forks, and I replaced the top tube of my Viking Tour of
Britain, which had failed. You can see the quality of my
workmanship in replacing that tube, because that bike is on
display at the cycling history museum in Davis, CA.
If Neal had read Effective Cycling he would have seen all the maintenance procedures (except brazing) described in detail.
Neal now urges me to start cycling again, now that my knee has
been replaced. My knee was never the cycling problem; cycling did
it good. My problem is arthritis in the shoulder joints, about
which there's not much that can be done. My latest bike was made
for me by Rivendell; a lovely bike. A mixte frame (to make
mounting and dismounting easier) running on 650B wheels with
lightweight tires, 18 speeds half step with granny, controlled by
bar-end shifters, carrier rack. It was shipped to me incomplete; I
installed the bar end shifters and cabling (and maybe the brake
levers and cabling), because I had the otherwise unobtainable
parts. But, as I repeat, pain in my shoulder joints made me give
up cycling about three years ago, when I gave that bike to my son.
It encouraged him to start cycling with a touring club, so it is
still giving good service.
But Neal does not know these private details, and he instructs me
in restarting cycling, perhaps even with a tricycle. He tells me
of the many bike lanes available in Lemon Grove, so that I can
ride safely, as if I am afraid of same-direction motor traffic.
If Neal had read Effective Cycling he would have recognized that
I have never been afraid of same-direction motor traffic and that
I always enjoyed operating in accordance with the rules of the
road for drivers of vehicles.
So, Neal's little essay, written as if pontificating from on
high, demonstrates only his complete ignorance of cycling affairs
and his fear of same-direction motor traffic. His essay
demonstrates that he is ignorant, frightened, and incompetent,
just those qualities typical of Americans regarding cycling. Those
of you who object to my accurate description of the American view
of cycling need to recognize that your own spokespeople
demonstrate the accuracy of my description.
Given that situation, those Americans who recognize the safety
and utility of operating according to the rules of the road,
vehicular cycling, need to concentrate on protecting their right
to so operate, against the forces of cyclist-inferiority cycling
that are largely in control of policy in bicycle transportation.
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This concerns the cycling portion of Neal's message.
The comparison is in cycling in a typical urban area with streets
that cross each other, in one case by obeying the rules of the
road for drivers of vehicles (RRDV), and thereby understanding how
traffic works, and, in the other case, by cycling on sidepaths,
thereby finding that one is fighting traffic wherever it, or the
cyclist, crosses or turns, thereby never learning how to operate
smoothly in traffic.
The cyclist who obeys the RRDV finds that he fits into traffic
and moves just as do the other drivers, in parallel movements
together, with reasonable rules for where these streams of traffic
cross and turn. The whole system has been worked out through a
century of use so that the rough spots, the conflict situations,
have been smoothed out. It is true that a few motorists feel that
the roads are for motorists only, so they honk and shout about
their motorist supremacy ideology, but almost none of them try
forceful acts, and when these very few get caught they are
prosecuted for criminal assault.
The cyclist who rides in a sidepath system finds that he is
involved in right-of-way conflicts with turning and crossing motor
traffic, or when he tries to turn himself. Therefore any sidepath
system that tries to make cycling safe, in addition to the
additional space required for the sidepath, has to add special
traffic signals and signal phases to prevent these streams of
traffic from colliding with each other. The signals are expensive
and the delays that they cause make both motoring and cycling
slower.
The supposed advantage of the sidepath system is that it protects cyclists from same-direction motor traffic. It does that, but at the cost of aggravating the causes of car-bike collisions caused by turning and crossing movements. That is, sidepaths protect against the causes of 5% of car-bike collisions, while aggravating the causes of 95% of car-bike collisions. That is why sidepath systems have to have all those additional traffic signals and traffic signal phases, to protect against the added dangers that sidepaths create.
It is quite obvious that the RRDV system is better than the
sidepath system.
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(John please post to the new ‘Bicycles and Infrastructure’ group at https://groups.google.com/group/bicycles-infrastructure and the Topic ‘Let’s Hear It For Vancouver’.)
I am not a member of the Bicycles and Infrastructure group.
Therefore, I cannot post to it.
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I am not a member of the Bicycles and Infrastructure group. Therefore, I cannot post to it.
On 12/1/2017 12:41 PM, Neal Henderson wrote:
Hello John Forester and All,--
My invitation to post ot 'Bicycles and Infrastructure' got muddled ...and I cannot find the 'Edit' function here.
I will try the URL again ...
(John please post to the new ‘Bicycles and Infrastructure’ group at https://groups.google.com/group/bicycles-infrastructure and the Topic ‘Let’s Hear It For Vancouver’.)
Cheers.
Neal
+1 mph Faster
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Hello John Forester and All,Bicycles and Infrastructure is a Google Groups forum and works like this one except it is set up for editing your posts after you publish.Log on and after a couple of hours or so you can post.Let me know if you have a problem and I will fix it.Cheers,Neal+1 mph Faster
On Friday, December 1, 2017 at 1:18:00 PM UTC-8, John Forester wrote:I am not a member of the Bicycles and Infrastructure group. Therefore, I cannot post to it.
On 12/1/2017 12:41 PM, Neal Henderson wrote:
Hello John Forester and All,--
My invitation to post ot 'Bicycles and Infrastructure' got muddled ...and I cannot find the 'Edit' function here.
I will try the URL again ...
(John please post to the new ‘Bicycles and Infrastructure’ group at https://groups.google.com/group/bicycles-infrastructure and the Topic ‘Let’s Hear It For Vancouver’.)
Cheers.
Neal
+1 mph Faster
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-- John Forester, MS, PE Bicycle Transportation Engineer 7585 Church St, Lemon Grove, CA 91945 619-644-5481, fore...@johnforester.com
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I seem to recall a picture (a few years back) of Serge helping you to get your bike in working order ...
Neal and John,At this point I would recommend you two start your own forum and just bicker back and forth that way.-Dan
On Fri, Dec 1, 2017 at 2:45 PM Neal Henderson <nea...@gmail.com> wrote:
Hello John Forester and All,Bicycles and Infrastructure is a Google Groups forum and works like this one except it is set up for editing your posts after you publish.Log on and after a couple of hours or so you can post.Let me know if you have a problem and I will fix it.Cheers,Neal+1 mph Faster
On Friday, December 1, 2017 at 1:18:00 PM UTC-8, John Forester wrote:I am not a member of the Bicycles and Infrastructure group. Therefore, I cannot post to it.
On 12/1/2017 12:41 PM, Neal Henderson wrote:
Hello John Forester and All,--
My invitation to post ot 'Bicycles and Infrastructure' got muddled ...and I cannot find the 'Edit' function here.
I will try the URL again ...
(John please post to the new ‘Bicycles and Infrastructure’ group at https://groups.google.com/group/bicycles-infrastructure and the Topic ‘Let’s Hear It For Vancouver’.)
Cheers.
Neal
+1 mph Faster
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---- John Forester, MS, PE Bicycle Transportation Engineer 7585 Church St, Lemon Grove, CA 91945 619-644-5481, fore...@johnforester.com
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A centenarian is a person who lives to or beyond the age of 100 years. Because life expectancies worldwide are less than 100, the term is associated with extreme longevity. In 2012, the United Nations estimated that there were 316,600 living centenarians worldwide.[1] As life expectancy is increasing across the world, and the world population has also increased rapidly, the number of centenarians is expected to increase quickly in the future.[2] According to the UK ONS, one-third of babies born in 2013 in the UK are expected to live to 100.[3]
The Good News! Look at how many people are over 100 in the USA …..
A growing number of Americans are living to age 100. Nationwide, the centenarian population has grown 65.8 percent over the past three decades, from 32,194 people who were age 100 or older in 1980 to 53,364 centenarians in 2010, according to new Census Bureau data.Jan 7, 2013
The population of the United States in 2010 was approximately 309 million. Thus, today only 0.0173% of Americans live to 100.
The Bad News! Hmmmmm …. For John and me this is not looking so good … Females provide about 83% of Centenarians ….. 17% is left for males or 9,072 men of the 53,364 centenarians.
US Male odds are 309,000,000 / 9072 = 0.0029%* ‘Anything is Possible’ …. but those odd look like a tough challenge.
Those of us that are in our 80’s now were born too soon …. As 1 out of 3 babies born now in UK are expected to live to 100.
Japan has 48 centenarians per 100,000 whereas the US has 22 and the UK 21.49 …. Canada 22.31 ….. Russia sucks at 4.76 (do not move there.)
Here is some information on aging: https://www.ted.com/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging
So what to do to extend life?
What do you think?
*
0.0029 |
|
95 % CI: |
0.0027 to 0.0031 |
z statistic |
174.839 |
Significance level |
P < 0.0001 |
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Hello Serge Isakov and All,
I may have been recalling reading your forwarded post of Sep in 2011 about John Forester and his ‘Betty Foy’ Rivendell mixte bike and John's attached letter telling about John getting in ten rides and stating in part: I feel healthier than I have felt in the last ten years.”
John noted that he was concerned with step-over height with his Betty Foy bike ...... with a trike he would not have to worry about that when stopping and starting or falling over if he has balance problems.
Perhaps John should consider riding a tricycle bike in light of his disabilities … I see them about every now and then … For example ….
Here is a sweet one from Walmart for $219.95 and has the advantage that it folds …. And the rider is quite upright putting little stress on the shoulders ..... with a nice basket for carrying items.
If stamina is a problem John could get an eBike like this …. Sitting quite upright so no stress on the shoulders.
Here is a recumbent 3 wheeler that has your arms relaxed by your side …. $399.99 at Walmart
However if John goes for a recumbent ..... he will need to be very careful when not in a bike lane ....... as it sits so low and he rides so slowly ......... and it is not especially visible to motorists .... particularly since John noted that he was "averaging 6 miles and 50 minutes each" for his rides.
What do you think?
Cheers,
Neal
+1 mph Faster
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I have ridden different types of recumbent since they first came
out, just to see how they are, or, sometimes, to advise the
manufacturer. (And high wheelers also.) Supposing that I were not
allowed to drive a motor vehicle, I would look for the recumbent I
liked best. The manufacturer may well be no longer in business,
but I know the characteristics I like. Long wheelbase (to prevent
flip over), steering below the saddle. But, I would have to see if
I could get away with a tent garage, or, if the city would not
agree to that, I would have to move out my larger machine tools to
make room for it in the garage. I don't want to do any of these
things.
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-- John Forester, MS, PE Bicycle Transportation Engineer 7585 Church St, Lemon Grove, CA 91945 619-644-5481, fore...@johnforester.com
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I came to the USA with my family in February, 1940, when I was
10. My father preceded us because his war plan was to write the
news and stories to keep American opinion favorable to the British
cause. At first, it was thought we would stay only as long as WWII
lasted, but, what with Britain's economic problems and such, and
the effect of US schooling, staying in the USA seemed much
preferable.
Under the arrangements of that time, I could choose to become an
American citizen between my 21 and 22 birthdays, and I did so.
I am a fourth generation British cyclist; there is a family story
that my great grandmother rode a bicycle, at that date either a
tricycle or a high wheeler. My paternal grandmother received a
bicycle, at that date a safety bicycle, as a wedding present. I
have a photograph, a bicycle club group portrait with bicycles,
showing my maternal grandparents and great-aunt with husband. I
started riding on the streets of London as soon as I could stay
up, age 6. (Before that I had strayed away from home, riding a
tricycle on the sidewalks, to my paternal grandparents' house. But
they weren't home, so I became the subject of a search.) I was
taught that all drivers of vehicles (to use the US name) obeyed
the same rules and had the same rights.
Upon coming to the USA, my father instructed my mother to find a
house in San Francisco, "the only civilized city on the Coast".
(Part of my father's work had been in Hollywood, and he didn't
like LA at all.) My mother rented a house in the north side of
Berkeley, just about 1,000 feet above sea level. I got back to
cycling in 1942, I suppose when I could manage the climb from
downtown to home. So I descended to school going as fast as the
cars, but even climbing back much more slowly I could beat the
streetcar, so at the top of the line I could meet a neighbor girl
whom I was coaching in physics. At that time I subscribed to the
British magazine Cycling, so I read the editorials opposing
British motoring's attempt to kick cyclists off some roads.
Neal wonders why I mention the danger of same-direction traffic
so much, since it doesn't frighten me. I have to suppose that Neal
has not noticed that all of American policy for bicycle
transportation and all American special traffic laws for
bicyclists are based on the fear of same-direction motor traffic.
Maybe he has not noticed this fact because that fear is so
pervasive and prevalent that it is just part of the background to
any cycling discussion.
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The new protected cycle lanes that opened last year in London can move five times as many people per hour as a main carriageway lane in the most congested parts of our city. At peak times, the new cycling infrastructure moves an average of 46% of people along the route despite occupying only 30% of the equivalent road space. Just two weeks after opening, the east-west and north-south cycle superhighway roads were moving 5% more people per hour than they could without cycle lanes – and that number is increasing as more cyclists are attracted to the routes.
Consultations on plans for two new major cycle routes, CS4 and CS9 so far suggest that the most effective way to get more people cycling is by building protected lanes on main roads. These break down a crucial barrier for those people who don’t cycle because they don’t feel safe. The results of this success benefit everyone – whether or not they cycle themselves.
Overall, the numbers of people using these new protected routes has grown by a phenomenal 50% in some cases, proving that it’s not the English weather that’s stopping people cycling but the traffic-dominated nature of most of London’s roads. In total, more than half a million kilometres are ridden by cyclists on the average day within central London, a rise of 7% in three years.