FWD: Comment : US personnel evacuation not a sure sign of war outbreak

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Cornelius Hamelberg

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Jun 12, 2025, 10:02:17 PM6/12/25

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WORLD | COMMENT

Nathan Shachar: US personnel evacuation not a sure sign of war outbreak

Published 15:58

Iraqi anti-terrorist forces are stationed at the US embassy in the capital Baghdad.

Iraqi anti-terrorist forces are stationed at the US embassy in the capital Baghdad. Photo: Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP

The announcement that the United States is planning to evacuate diplomats and their families from countries in the Middle East has caused concern in several countries. At the same time, the television channel NBC reports that Israel is about to attack Iran, with or without US help.

This is a commentary text. The writer is responsible for the analysis and positions in the text.

Text

Nathan Shachar

But the sensational information is not a sure sign of an imminent outbreak of war. The United States confirmed on Thursday morning that the next round of nuclear negotiations with Iran will take place as planned in the Omani capital of Muscat on Sunday.

Iranian spokesmen have recently vowed to attack US bases in the region if Iran is attacked by Israel. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that US personnel were being withdrawn “because the Middle East can become a dangerous place.”

The US has troops and bases in Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan. The largest of these bases is al-Udeid in Qatar, which is home to Centcom, the US headquarters for all operations in the Middle East and Central Asia. However, Qatar, which is close to Iran, has banned the US from using the base during attacks on Iran.

Iran's leaders understand that it is the subject of a US-Israeli war of nerves, but they also understand that Trump is serious.

Reports of an imminent Israeli attack on Iran must also be taken with a grain of salt. It is true that Israeli pilots have been training for months for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. But it has never happened, when Israel has attacked sensitive strategic targets, that the press reported this in advance. Anyone who sends bombers 200 miles away, and is to refuel them in the air over foreign countries, must guard against the element of surprise.

NBC reports that Israel is considering attacking Iran in the coming days. If that's the case, it's all the more important for Israel not to trumpet its plans in advance.

Iran's leaders understand that it is the subject of a US-Israeli war of nerves, but they also understand that Trump is serious. Of all the conflicts he has promised to resolve – without any concrete results – this is the only one where real negotiations are taking place. Iran has already agreed to return to the 2015 nuclear deal with the major powers, the JCPOA. In it, Iran promises not to enrich the uranium isotope U235 to a level higher than 3.67 percent, and to open all facilities to inspection.

When Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed new sanctions on Iran, it was after intense persuasion from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This has proven to be a serious blunder, as Iran was then able to claim that it was no longer bound by the agreement. Since then, Iran has enriched so much uranium, and to such high levels that it is enough for several nuclear weapons. This is why strategic analysts in Israel have called Netanyahu “the father of the Iranian atomic bomb.”

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