When this story broke I predicted an outcome along these lines.
There shall be no investigation, and if any, the public will be given no information about it.
There shall be no prosecution of Mailafia.
The governors in question will be silent.
The strategy, from the GEJ govt to the present govt, is to do their best to silence such embarrassing declarations on Boko Haram.
I am happy to be proved wrong.
It shall be interesting if a few months from now, or even a year from now, any action is taken on this subject and made known to the public.
I suspect that Boko Haram is the work of radical members of the Northern Muslim elite, with sympathies even among those not directly involved.
I understand Atiku Abubakar as a central provider of ideological inspiration for the group in their 2011 resurgence.
I expect that he also gave the group economic support at that insurgence.
Atiku ought to have been tried for treason and imprisoned when he threatened Nigeria with violent change when he failed to get the PDP Presidential nomination for 2011, which, on account of the PDP's power at the time, would have given him the Presidency as the Northern consensus candidate, an anointing he worked hard for only to be thwarted by the PDP's decision to support GEJ for the 2011 Presidency.
His failure, in resonance with the view of some, that the PDP Presidential platform should go to the (Muslim) North in 2011, in keeping with their rotational Presidency formula, created bitter division in the North, leading to the mantra "power must return to the North", an orientation Boko Haram built upon in its 2011 resurgence on GEJ's entry into the Presidency, depicting themselves as Muslim soldiers fighting an infidel govt, restricting themselves to bombing churches and machine gunning their worshippers, bombing and killing soldiers in military barracks, giving Christians a deadline to leave the North or face the consequences, but leaving the general, non-Christian, non-govt public untouched, except in killing informers agst them and perhaps, rival clerics, something they have done at various points in their history.
The level of division this strategy created in the country, as represented by orientations amongst the Northern Muslim elite and populace, is summed up by Bamanga Tukur, then chairman of GEJ's own party, the PDP, describing Boko Haram as ''freedom fighters'', a stance he moved away from years later, perhaps on observing the sheer devastation they were creating.
Various declarations of Boko Haram as ''our Muslim brothers''-Sheikh Gumi, ''loyal Muslims''- a Northern Muslim group, flowed from various public figures in the North, even in the midst of urging them to desist from further carnage.
Bamanga Tukur should have been removed from his office and questioned when he described Boko Haram as ''freedom fighters''.
Wole Soyinka should have been questioned as to why he described the 2011 Boko Haram resurgence as the work of aggrieved Northern Muslim politicians who had lost out in the political game.
GEJ's National Security Officer Andrew Azazi should have been questioned as to why he stated, years after Soyinka, that the 2011 Boko Haram resurgence was the work of discontented PDP politicians who had lost out in the enablement of who may or may not have a platform for office, a veiled reference to the PDP's rotational Presidency principle.
After Azazi died in a helicopter crash shortly after, and as some claim, because of making this declaration, his subordinates declared that they had information on the backers of Boko Haram and would share the information with the public. No news from them since.
GEJ once declared that Boko Haram were in his govt. Nigerians made some noises about this and the declaration died away. There has been no news about efforts to fish out and prosecute these figures.
Then Borno APC governor Kassim Shettima should have been removed and tried for keeping the Chibok school open agst the orders of the fed govt that schools in such outlying regions should be closed, his actions leading to the Chibok kidnap, the last straw that destroyed the international reputation of the GEJ govt in spite of the huge progress they had made agst Boko Haram, a reputation destroying occurrence that mobilised public opinion towards Buhari's victory on the APC platform as a former general who had defeated Matisasine and would ''lead from the front'' in the war agst Boko Haram.
When Boko Haram publicly chose Buhari as their negotiator when they agreed to negotiate with the govt, if Buhari had agreed, instead of turning down the invitation, perhaps in fear of being seen as an agent of the group and keeping in mind his Presidential aspirations, which might have been destroyed by such an association even if the country were to gain from his acting as liaison between the govt and Boko Haram, the story would have been different today.
Buhari, however, is not a statesmen and has used the Boko Haram problem in promoting his political aspirations rather than using his clout as the most promnient Northern Muslim politician to help address the subject decisively.
Why has there never been any public trial of Boko Haram members, from GEJ's time to the present?
Why is no info ever forthcoming on their enablers?
My conjectures- Boko Haram, in its current post 2011 escalation is deeply shaped by the aspirations of radical figures among the Northern Muslim elite.
That is why no information will be given as to their backers.
In GEJ's case, he operated from a position of great caution and subtle but ultimately decisive moves in addressing the problem. Arresting Atiku could have looked volatile to him on account of the restiveness of the North in light of the controversies over the Presidency. The level of power wielded through such fears is demonstrated by the declaration in support of a deadly terrorist group by the chairman of the President's own party. During the struggle, he was recurently opposed by the likes of Buhari, then Adamawa state governor Murtala Nyako and the Borno elders, with some members of the populace also showing some allegiance to Boko Haram until they saw them in their true colours.
In the current situation, its possible that Boko Haram already control territory in the North East. They are certainly not on the run and are at best in a stalemate with the army.
I dont see them being defeated by the Buhari govt which has no decisive will in that direction, operating within a conflict of interests-allegiance to the ethno-religious vision of the group and commitment to the nation.
We should be ready for the gradual acceptance of the idea of Boko Haram keeping the territory they hold.
Is there any fundamental difference between Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen militia, openly managed by Miyetti Allah, run by the country's most elite Fulani and sustained by govt policy and monies?
Is Nigeria not already in the Lebanon phase, where a terrorist group became part of govt?
Are we not moving towards control of the nation by ethno-religious supremacists?
How wild or factual or close to fact are my conjectures?
thanks
toyin