Mr. President: What Would the Buhari Legacy Be?
Jibrin Ibrahim, Friday column, Daily Trust, 29th May 2020
Today is the anniversary of President Buhari’s fifth year in power and has three more years to go before retiring to Daura to take care of his cows. In another year or two, the campaign for 2023 will take over the attention of the political class and governance would stop. This means the President has less than two years to leave his legacy of eight-year rule. One of the problems the President has been facing is the mediocrity of his communication team, which has been unable to explain to the people what really has the President been doing. They are in the media continuously attacking all those who have been attacking the President, and I concede that is part of their day job. What they have not succeeded in doing is communicating the priorities and achievements of the Administration so that data is provided to the people on the evidence on which citizens can assess the regime. As the countdown commences, President Buhari has to reflect on what he has done with power and how he can communicate his legacy to citizens.
I still remember that just before the beginning of the Administration five years ago, the APC Policy Directorate held a major conference in preparation for implementing their strategy of “hitting the ground running” as soon as their parry takes over power. The buzz at the conference was that major policy decisions, especially politically difficult ones must be made immediately and quick wins must be obtained by the end of the first hundred days in office. The idea was that by riding on the crest of newly acquired legitimacy and popularity, significant gains could be made before expected criticisms begin to affect the credibility of the government. The underlying assumption was that all new regimes coming into power in a context of very high expectation start losing their popularity on assuming office even if for the sole reason that people’s expectations are unreasonably high. President Buhari rejected the road map of hitting the ground running and did not start constituting his governance team until after five months. Years later, he explained to Nigerians that he was aware they were calling him “Baba Go Slow” but they should understand that being older and wiser, he had decided to reflect and consider before taking executive decisions.
I have said repeatedly that the President was wrong to think that he had a lot of time; four years plus another four is a very short period and his team was right to have advised him to move fast. Today, the issue is with the countdown clock ticking, can he move fast enough to leave a respectable legacy of his rule. This is difficult because his style of delayed action has led to the development of a body of critical opinion that paint him in a very negative light leading many to assume nothing positive can come from his administration. Therein lies the opportunity, as a believer in miracles, I feel that if “Baba Go Slow” can transform into “Action Baba”, he might still save the day.
In 2015, I wrote a number of articles on this column urging the President to prioritise the implementation of the 2012 Oronsanye Report on restructuring and rationalizing Federal parastatals so as to reduce the cost of governance through mergers and dissolution of parastatals with cross cutting mandates. It was one of the low hanging fruits he could have harvested because the reality is that there were many more parastatals than what could be funded to do their work leaving the country with the wasteful legacy of tens of thousands of top civil servants who are paid but have no work to do. The President took no action until a couple of weeks ago when the project was resurrected. Meanwhile, the situation is today much more serious because the 8th Senate, 2015-2019 considered 213 Establishment Bill for the creation of new Federal agencies and currently, the 9th National Assembly is already considering over 100 Bills for the creation of new agencies. The mood in the National Assembly is that each legislator creates a new Federal agency for their constituency. It is important that the President convinces them to give up their individual “pet” projects and act in concert with the Executive to restructure and merge the 102 agencies identified in the Report.
The most important legacy the President should leave is an improvement of the security situation in the country. The expectation of Nigerians was that Boko Haram would be vanquished within the first year or two of his presidency. It did not happen. For over ten years now, the insurgency has endured and become entrenched as an existing reality while the security agencies appear to have been at their wits end. There has been some progress over the past couple of weeks but Nigerians are still waiting for the decisive victory. Meanwhile, under President Buhari’s watch, farmer-herder conflicts have blossomed into rural banditry which has developed into a major challenge in many States in the country. Today, peasant farmers are regularly attacked and massacred by armed bandits and many can no longer farm and feed their families. Another, dimension of the crisis is the spread of kidnapping for ransom, which is rapidly becoming the money-making occupation for the unemployed youth. The problem today, as SBM Intelligence explained in a recent study, is that between January 2016 and March 2020, kidnapping gangs have made over $11 million in addition to killing hundreds of their captives. The 100 million poor, hungry and angry youth are waking up to the fact that the most rapid pathway to wealth is armed violence and the longer they are allowed to continue along that path, the more difficult it would be to stop them.
Maybe Nigeria’s collective pet project has been industrialization of the country on the basis of our own iron and steel industry. Way back in 1971, the Nigerian Steal Development Authority was established to set us along the path of an iron and steel industry and Ajaokuta was established in 1975 and programmed to go into production in 1981. It never happened. While campaigning for office in 2015, President Buhari in a campaign rally in Ajaokuta promised he will address the challenge. Nigerians are waiting.
One legacy Nigerians have been crying for four decades is the improvement of power supply, the requirement for rapid development. I doubt that there is any country in the world that has invested as much as we have in power and yet we have nothing to show for it. In 1999, the late Bola Ige promised us sufficient power within six months, it did not happen. President Obasanjo, we discovered through the House of Representatives probe, had squandered $16 billion with the promise of 6,000 megawatts of electricity by December 2007 and it did not happen. Subsequently, President Umaru Yar’Adua in February 2008 launched the Committee on the Accelerated Expansion of Power. He promised Nigeria that 18-months from that date, Nigeria would be producing at least 6,000 MW of power and it did not happen. Goodluck Jonathan took the approach of institutional revolution by privatizing the industry and getting the magic of the private sector to do the job, it was a woeful failure. After long reflection and study, President Buhari has committed to a new contract with the German Government and Siemens to produce and actually distribute 7,000 megawatts in 2021 rising to 11,000 in 2023. Having followed the failure and corruption saga in the power sector for decades, I will say I will believe it when I see it. If he succeeds, it would be a great legacy from his Administration.
Section 15(5) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria stipulates that “the State shall abolish all corrupt practices and abuse of power”. Nigerians elected Buhari into office because they believed he could make that provision operational. There has been some improvement in the war against corruption under his stewardship but the results are underwhelming and nowhere near the expectation of Nigerians. If he could significantly scale up the war against corruption and focus his eyes on some people around him, he could offer Nigerians a great legacy of opening a new pathway to development based on the use of public resources for enhancing the public good.
Dear Jibrin:
With the announcement yesterday that the country will be borrowing over $5 billion, we want to know what they intend to do with the money and how this frames the legacy if they will be leaving debts for their successors. It is clear that the scale of poverty will continue. If Boko Haram endures, the cumulative evaluation of the administration is most likely to be negative. Ethnicity is now front and back, which means the nation is not much stronger under Buhari—their handling of the Fulani herdsmen’s issues contributed to this. Of course, I have never been right before, and I may be wrong again.
TF
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Today is the fifth anniversary of the Buhari regime, so let's go back to one overarching promise he made when he was a candidate seeking the office:
"Zan gyara Nijeriya cikin shekara biyu" (I will fix Nigeria in two years)
This was the headline in the Hausa newspaper, RARIYA, on April 22, 2014.
Well, we know that not only has he not fixed Nigeria in five years but that he has decimated and divided the country beyond repair. He has made the economy much worse than he met it and has worsened rather than improved the security situation.
He is borrowing the nation's future away, ensuring that the pain of his atrocious presidency will be felt by our children and grandchildren, who will have to pay these debts back by sacrificing their own futures.
His regime is an unmitigated disaster--no sugarcoating needed here, for his incompetence is a clear and present danger to many Nigerians.
So let's commemorate this tragic anniversary by answering this question: when did you realize that Buhari was not up to the job and that Nigeria had entered one chance? Which particular event brought you to this realization? For some people, it was Buhari visiting the US and pronouncing at an event whose video went viral that Nigerians should not expect him to treat all citizens and constituencies equally and that he would favor those who gave him "97%" of their votes over those who gave him only "5%" of theirs. His regime of 5 years has tragically borne out this "97/5" principle. It is the most divisive and provincial government on record.
For me, it was his taking 6 months to name a cabinet and then naming one that was many degrees worse than that of his immediate predecessor.
A close second would be the complete and utterly dishonest turnaround from calling subsidy payments a fraud as a candidate to paying three times the amount Jonathan's government paid, and from criticizing the modest increase in the price of fuel during Jonathan's regime to almost doubling the price when he assumed power.
From there it was downhill.
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Prof.,
I hope I will be proven wrong, but based on history, the $5B is in preparation for the next election and no measurable infrastructural development or sustainable poverty alleviating program will come of it. I stand (and pray) to be wrong.
My last time in Nigeria (2-years ago), I spent 17-days at Awka (capital of Anambra State) and got 3-hours of electricity and hardly any passable road between Enugu and Onitsha. In fact, the federal inter-state road was completely unpassable and the only passable road is the “colonial” era road. Maybe it is a lot better today—but I doubt it.
Regards,
Gozie
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Olayinka,
‘"Zan gyara Nijeriya cikin shekara biyu" (I will fix Nigeria in two years)
This was the headline in the Hausa newspaper, RARIYA, on April 22, 2014.’—Moses Ochonu
From available data, almost every measurable indices are worse today than they were 5-years ago and yet in praise of this government on promised electricity generation and distribution you “congratulate Nigerians in advance on their good fortune of having a government that has the courage to do the ' right' thing at last no matter whose ox is gored.” Haba! Where is the documented history of “doing the right thing” by this government?
I really hope that you are right. Industrialization of Nigeria is going nowhere without Reliable Power Supply, 2) Reliable Transportation System and 3) Security.
Gozie
From: 'Okechukwu Ukaga' via USA Africa Dialogue Series [mailto:usaafric...@googlegroups.com]
Sent: Friday, May 29, 2020 11:25 AM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Buhari Legacy
Olayinka,
I appreciate your optimism. I hope and pray you are right for it will be a great step forward for the country should the electricity generation and distribution problem be solved once and for all. But as a realist I am not banking on it. I will believe it only when I see it because, if history is any guide, there is no reason to expect outsourcing to yield better results. For instance, Ajaokuta steel complex was outsourced more than 40 years ago to Soviet Union, and billions of US dollars later (including about $1.5 billion loan from Russian this year alone which never left Russia but instead used by the Russians to pay themselves while future Nigerian generations are further mortgaged/indebted) and over 4 decades after the initial outsourcing, project goals have not been achieved. So don't be surprised if it turns out that all we did is outsource our funds in return for the "importation of darkness" which will be worse than local "generation of darkness". Those who do not learn from their mistake are bound to repeat it.
Regards,
Okey
On Fri, May 29, 2020 at 10:54 AM OLAYINKA AGBETUYI <yagb...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Given the abject failure to produce sufficient power in Nigeria for four decades, President Buhari's approach seems the most realistic even if the most shameful for a country with legions of engineers.
It is an irrefutable fact that the all the money sunk in the chasm of electricity supply was sunk into the bottomless pockets of Nigerian educated elite paid to " generate darkness' ie. the Nigerian kleptocratic factor( apologies to Baba Kadiri.)
It is therefore fitting that generation of electricity be outsourced to a foreign company with different, effective and efficient work ethics. Apart from the efficiency of German companies, this time beneficiaries know they can be booted out summarily if results are not produced.
Let me congratulate Nigerians in advance on their good fortune of having a government that has the courage to do the ' right' thing at last no matter whose ox is gored
OAA
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.
-------- Original message --------
From: Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinib...@gmail.com>
Date: 29/05/2020 14:44 (GMT+00:00)
To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Buhari Legacy
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Olayinka,
‘"Zan gyara Nijeriya cikin shekara biyu" (I will fix Nigeria in two years)
This was the headline in the Hausa newspaper, RARIYA, on April 22, 2014.’—Moses Ochonu
From available data, almost every measurable indices are worse today than they were 5-years ago and yet in praise of this government on promised electricity generation and distribution you “congratulate Nigerians in advance on their good fortune of having a government that has the courage to do the ' right' thing at last no matter whose ox is gored.” Haba! Where is the documented history of “doing the right thing” by this government?
I really hope that you are right. Industrialization of Nigeria is going nowhere without Reliable Power Supply, 2) Reliable Transportation System and 3) Security.
Gozie
From: 'Okechukwu Ukaga' via USA Africa Dialogue Series [mailto:usaafric...@googlegroups.com]
Sent: Friday, May 29, 2020 11:25 AM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Buhari Legacy
Olayinka,
I appreciate your optimism. I hope and pray you are right for it will be a great step forward for the country should the electricity generation and distribution problem be solved once and for all. But as a realist I am not banking on it. I will believe it only when I see it because, if history is any guide, there is no reason to expect outsourcing to yield better results. For instance, Ajaokuta steel complex was outsourced more than 40 years ago to Soviet Union, and billions of US dollars later (including about $1.5 billion loan from Russian this year alone which never left Russia but instead used by the Russians to pay themselves while future Nigerian generations are further mortgaged/indebted) and over 4 decades after the initial outsourcing, project goals have not been achieved. So don't be surprised if it turns out that all we did is outsource our funds in return for the "importation of darkness" which will be worse than local "generation of darkness". Those who do not learn from their mistake are bound to repeat it.
Regards,
Okey
On Fri, May 29, 2020 at 10:54 AM OLAYINKA AGBETUYI <yagb...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Given the abject failure to produce sufficient power in Nigeria for four decades, President Buhari's approach seems the most realistic even if the most shameful for a country with legions of engineers.
It is an irrefutable fact that the all the money sunk in the chasm of electricity supply was sunk into the bottomless pockets of Nigerian educated elite paid to " generate darkness' ie. the Nigerian kleptocratic factor( apologies to Baba Kadiri.)
It is therefore fitting that generation of electricity be outsourced to a foreign company with different, effective and efficient work ethics. Apart from the efficiency of German companies, this time beneficiaries know they can be booted out summarily if results are not produced.
Let me congratulate Nigerians in advance on their good fortune of having a government that has the courage to do the ' right' thing at last no matter whose ox is gored
OAA
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.
-------- Original message --------
From: Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinib...@gmail.com>
Date: 29/05/2020 14:44 (GMT+00:00)
To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Buhari Legacy
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An Opinion
The renowned Nigerian billionaire, Dangote, has said time without number in interviews that Nigeria and the rest of Africa will develop substantially if there is steady supply of electric power. I have often recalled with nostalgia the time when power was supplied by the Electricity Corporation of Nigeria (ECN). As a lad, my parents paid five shillings for electricity a month and we had power 24/7. Following the introduction of NEPA, electricity supply became epileptic as many Nigerians described the irregularity of power supply. The kata-kata in the steady supply of electric power could be related to the activities of importers of the ubiquitous generators in the country. I suspect that some of these wealthy importers sabotage attempts by the various regimes to supply adequate energy, and that they had done so –and still do so—with the connivance of some influential politicians. The government may have to strike a deal with the entrepreneurs in this economic sector.
I would argue that if President Buhari can supply the nation with enough electricity, which could be maintained for ten years or so, the country might erect a monument to honor him for such a feat or accomplishment!
Ike Udogu
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An Opinion
The renowned Nigerian billionaire, Dangote, has said time without number in interviews that Nigeria and the rest of Africa will develop substantially if there is steady supply of electric power. I have often recalled with nostalgia the time when power was supplied by the Electricity Corporation of Nigeria (ECN). As a lad, my parents paid five shillings for electricity a month and we had power 24/7. Following the introduction of NEPA, electricity supply became epileptic as many Nigerians described the irregularity of power supply. The kata-kata in the steady supply of electric power could be related to the activities of importers of the ubiquitous generators in the country. I suspect that some of these wealthy importers sabotage attempts by the various regimes to supply adequate energy, and that they had done so –and still do so—with the connivance of some influential politicians. The government may have to strike a deal with the entrepreneurs in this economic sector.
I would argue that if President Buhari can supply the nation with enough electricity, which could be maintained for ten years or so, the country might erect a monument to honor him for such a feat or accomplishment!
Ike Udogu
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/CAGCbkjq1BOYBvx0nxq0RY%2BbvAbMUvSH4rk%2B%3DRB4m%3D3dWOKub_Q%40mail.gmail.com.
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Professor Iheduru,
To paraphrase an adage in my village and perhaps yours, too “where an old man seats on a bench and sees or observes an event, ‘a young folk’ may climb to the very top of a tall iroko tree, s/he would not see it.” Brother Okey, I know that you have answers to the queries you raised and may be able to write copiously on them. Nevertheless, you just want a response from the horse’s mouth. If you will permit me to preach to the choir, do not forget that we are social scientists with differing and sometimes clashing views—some of which we have displayed on this forum.
Ike Udogu
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