Domino effect with African military coups
Cornelius Hamelberg
ANALYSIS. Since 2020, six military coups have been carried out in Africa. It is a figure reminiscent of the decades immediately following the fall of colonialism. The continent has experienced more military takeovers than anyone else, but they have become increasingly rare during the 2000s.
So why is this steep rise happening now? One reason is the fragile security situation in West Africa in combination with the fact that sitting leaders have not lived up to the inhabitants' expectations regarding security, poverty reduction and development, writes Africa expert Görrel Espelund.
Published: 2022-02-10
The year began with a military coup in Burkina Faso. On the streets of the capital Ouagadougou, residents celebrated the end of President Roch Kaboré's era and greeted Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba and his crew with cheers. In a televised speech a few days later, the coup leader promised a return to a normal constitutional order "when conditions allow, and according to a schedule set by the people".
At the same time, he appealed to the international community to support Burkina Faso so that the country could emerge from the crisis as quickly as possible. In his speech, he stressed the need for increased security and blamed the coup on the deteriorating situation in the country.
President Kaboré's inability to stop the advance of the Islamist militias and deadly assassinations has aroused anger and dissatisfaction among the Burkinabes. The terrorist attacks have claimed at least 2,000 lives in recent years and around 1.5 million people are estimated to have been forced to leave their homes. In June 2021, 160 villagers were killed in an assault and in November, an attack on a military post occurred when 49 military police and four civilians were killed.
The fact that the government could not provide its security forces with materiel and weapons to withstand a similar attack was too many a drop that made the cup overflow. People took to the streets in protest of the lack of security, and with demands for a change of regime. The demonstrations were dissolved by force.
The coup belt in Africa 2019–2022. Map: UI.
Dissatisfaction within the army grew. A few weeks later, the military took power.
- We were just so tired of him [President Kaboré]. Our friends were killed. Our cops were killed. It just did not work. We were so tired of it, a woman celebrating taking power told The New York Times .
Rinaldo Depagne, West Africa's head of the think tank International Crisis Group , summed up for the same newspaper:
- It is clear that people think, right or wrong, that a man in uniform and with weapons is better suited to protect them than a democratically elected president.
The West African Cooperation Organization Ecowas and the African Union (AU) responded to the military coup by suspending Burkina Faso from the Community.
Africa is the continent in the world that has experienced the most military coups. Since 1952, more than 90 military takeovers and at least as many failed attempts have been counted. The coup in Burkina Faso was the sixth in Africa just since the military seized power in Mali in 2020. Add to that a coup in Sudan in 2019 and two coup attempts - in Niger in 2021 and a suspect in Guinea-Bissau in 2022 - and the list begins to resemble African shifts in 1960- and the 70s. During these two decades, no less than 46 military coups took place - most in West Africa. Since then, the trend has been downward.
- Until 2000, it was free for the coup makers, stated Issaka Souaré , researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) at a seminar in October 2021.
Then a radical change took place. The AU's predecessor, the Organization of African Unity (OAU), adopted the Lomé Declaration in July 2000, in which the OAU expressed its concern about political developments and the recurring coups on the continent. Through the Lomé Declaration, the Member States undertook to work for democratic principles and to condemn all non-constitutional takeovers.
- There were some loopholes in the Lomé Declaration, and later agreements have been even stricter. For example, it now counts as an unconstitutional takeover when a sitting leader refuses to resign after he has lost an election, Issaka Souaré clarified at the seminar.
Burkina Faso's coup leader Henri Sandaogo Damiba promised security in his speech to the nation on January 27. Photo: Sophie Garcia / AP / TT
The many coups of the past 18 months have led several observers to warn of the "cancer of cancer". But in order to be able to talk about a decline, democracy as a state must first have been successful, points out Morten Bøås, a researcher at Nupi (Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy), for the journal Bistandsaktuelt .
- For us, democracy has an intrinsic value, it has delivered for a long time, and a democracy that delivers is probably the best form of government that exists. But in young democracies where those in power are unable to deliver, the population does not perceive democracy as particularly valuable, he says.
The West African leaders in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea are examples of this, Bøås believes. There, governments have not been able to show any positive results in the form of development, reduced poverty and increased security.
- Then the management also enjoys no popular support. Democracy must be something other than people gathering and putting their ballots in a ballot box. The coups do not begin with a military takeover but with popular protests, says Morten Bøås and reminds that the overthrow of the civilian government in Burkina Faso occurred after clashes between protesters and police. The development is similar to the course of events in Mali, even the rhetoric of the coup makers is reminiscent of each other.
After all, the statistics do not point to a return to the "heyday" of the military coups. The number of African leaders who resigned in the 2000s after an election loss, or resigned after two terms, is many times more than the number of coup plotters.
Summit in AU. Coup makers risk not being allowed to participate. Photo: AP / TT
At the end of last week, the remaining members of Ecowas met to discuss the situation. At the opening of the meeting, the President of Ecova, also the President of Ghana, Nana Akufo-Addo, spoke about "the growing threats to our region stemming from the military intervention in Mali, and its contagious impact on Guinea and Burkina Faso".
Ecowas normally has 15 members, but three of them are now suspended and sanctions have been imposed on Mali and Guinea. Mali has been punished particularly severely since the military regime postponed the promised general elections in February this year. Instead, the leaders have presented a plan for transition to civilian rule that is expected to take five years, starting January 1, 2022. This decision, and since the regime has received the armed Kremlin-linked Wagner group, makes Sweden and other European countries consider withdrawing return their peacekeeping and counter-terrorism forces to Mali. Denmark has been ordered to take home its squad.
At last week's crisis meeting, however, Ecowas decided not to impose sanctions on Burkina Faso but instead to call on the military junta to present a timetable for the return to democracy.
Balance sheet by AUHow regional and international cooperation organizations react to military junta can be crucial to the "spread" of coups. In order for penalties in the form of suspensions and sanctions to be able to have a preventive effect, it is therefore necessary that they are used consistently.
A soldier can work better on security than a Democrat. Guinea's coup leader Colonel Mamady Doumbouya. Photo: Sunday Alamba / AP / TT
In a recent meeting, the African Union condemned the "wave" of coups sweeping across the continent and Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso were expelled from the union after them. Sudan was subjected to the same punishment in 2019, then welcomed back for a short period, and suspended again in 2021. But not Chad, despite the country's statutory principles not being followed in the change of power in 2021 (the military quickly appointed the recently deceased president's son as Chad's new leader). Several observers point out that the AU's decision is a balancing act so as not to further jeopardize the stability of a very fragile state and surrounding region. Others believe that it is precisely the lack of consistency that erodes the Union's principles.
If the sanctioning tools of the AU and the regional co-operation organizations are to have any force, they should also be used when incumbent leaders refuse to give up power - for example by tricking the constitution in order to exceed the maximum number of terms, usually two, or by cheating election victories.
After the military coup in Guinea, the coup leader there, Mamady Doumbouya, declared that it was incumbent President Alpha Condé's mismanagement of the country and the refusal to resign that prompted the military to act. Just as before in Mali, and later in Burkina Faso, the coup plotters were hailed by the people.
Görrel Espelund
Journalist, associate editor at the Foreign Policy Institute.