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OBASANJO AND THE CONTROVERSY ON STATE FAILURE

by Ayo Olukotun

“Today, Nigeria is fast drifting to a failed and badly divided state; economically, our country is becoming a basket case and poverty capital of the world, and socially, we are firming up as an unwholesome and insecure country” – A former President of Nigeria, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (retd.), The Punch, Monday, September 14, 2020.

Controversy has rapidly collated around Nigeria’s former President, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (retd.)’s recent statement quoted in the opening paragraph to the effect that Nigeria is fast developing into a failed state. On the face of it, there is nothing really new or revelatory about Obasanjo’s position, except that in the context of the politics of warlords which is rampant in the country and given Obasanjo’s own predilection for hard tackles on this and other governments, his observation was bound to generate animated debate. For example, although there are issues about the scientific status of the failed states typology, it has, since 2005 when it made its debut, become a rough and ready tool for assessing the fragility and infirmity, shall we call it, of weak states. Even the Fragile States Index, which is the latest mutation of the failed states index for 2019 ranks Nigeria as the 14^th most fragile state in the world, out of 178 countries, and the 9^th most fragile in Africa.

It should be noted, however, that since the Washington-based Fund for Peace started publishing the Failed States Index, Nigeria has always been ranked in the bottom league of failed states, and this includes, for instance, the year 2007, when Obasanjo was still in power with Nigeria occupying the 17^th position of the most failed states on the globe. In other words, and to the extent that the Failed States Index can be considered an explanatory model, Nigeria’s vulnerabilities are partly systemic rather than contingent. This much is evident in Nobel Laureate’s Wole Soyinka’s statement that he considers Obasanjo as one of the architects of whatever situation Nigeria finds itself today; although he went on to say that he completely agrees with Obasanjo’s narrative, despite the fact that they are often on opposed sides of the political divides. But that is not the end of the story, Obasanjo and Soyinka, for that matter, lay the blame for Nigeria’s current mess on its helmsman, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) who stands in the dock, in this light, for mismanaging Nigeria’s diversity and for not doing enough to reverse the decay in economic and social departments of life. Interestingly, despite their bite, the observations of the elder statesman were not intended merely as a rebuke, but to warn that unless remedial action is taken, the country may be headed for disintegration or worse. For instance, Obasanjo did say, on that occasion, that, “I believe Nigeria is worth saving on the basis of mutuality and reciprocity, and I also believe it can be done through the process, rather than talking at each other or resorting to violence”. Unfortunately, however, Obasanjo’s critics, which include information personnel of the Buhari administration, went on the offensive by calling him ‘Divider-in-Chief’, and ignoring for the most part, his salutary therapeutic proposals.

Leaders, in an emerging democracy such as ours, must cultivate the habit of listening more than they talk; more importantly, they cannot afford the kind of mindset that dismisses criticisms in knee jerk and automatic manner, without fully inspecting their possible merits. To be sure, this columnist has often complained that, as a former President and one of the longest serving of this country, it is inappropriate for Obasanjo to engage in frontal criticisms of a sitting administration, for this tends to shift the issues away from the substance of his comments to the man Obasanjo himself. This is exactly what has happened in this instance as most commentators, especially on the government side focused almost completely on Obasanjo’s personality and track-record without saying a word about the issues he raised. Of course, this may be partly political posturing, driven by the illogic of burying germane issues under name-calling, a heated tenor and condemnatory political rhetoric. To expose this logical fallacy, which is itself, a manifestation of growing intolerance in our political culture, we can ask the question: If we grant that Obasanjo is as bad as he is being portrayed, how does that improve the lives of Nigerians who are currently tormented by rampaging inflation, soaring insecurity, fallouts of a global pandemic, the throes of an upswing in fuel and electricity prices, as well as the shambles in the education and health sectors? This is a way of noting that the uncivil tenor of the debate has neither helped matters nor given hope to Nigerians that their woes are about to end.

For some reason, a culture of enforced silence is fast descending on what used to be an active civil society, one of the magnificent pillars, once upon a time, of our democracy. From time to time, therefore, there is the need to critically inspect how much or how little those in power are fulfilling their electoral mandate and are truly attending to the problems that give Nigerians sleepless nights. Regrettably, our politics is organized in such a way that burning national issues can be easily swept under the political carpet of claiming that, because those raising them are in opposition to government, the issues are not worth attending to. So, we are coping with the perverse logic that what matters is not the merit of arguments but the coloration or political leaning of those making the comments.

Grievously, in a debate that has been more productive of heat than light, opinion has fissured along ethno-regional lines with Northern sociopolitical groups such as the Arewa Consultative Forum, lining up on the side of government, and Southern political and cultural groups such as Afenifere and Ohaneze Nd'igbo giving automatic nods to Obasanjo’s position. Not only is this an illustration of the divisions mentioned by Obasanjo, but it certainly points up the difficulty of meaningful dialogue in a terrain where the battles are so pitched and where the room for compromise and negotiation is almost foreclosed by the intensity of polarization. Obviously, we cannot drift this way into the next elections hoping that somehow, things will turn out right without fundamental changes. The current party structure, even though it features two large dominant parties is also unsatisfactory because it has transferred all the cleavages into the two contraptions and marriages of convenience called parties. That is why there is so much bickering over a Northern or Southern president and issues of political succession, three years to the 2023 election. Clearly, therefore, we must do more than what is offered by the current constitutional review process undertaken by the National Assembly, which is also beginning to take the shape of another expensive jamboree.

There is a need for over-arching dialogues with the objective of renewing the federal bargain. More importantly, the existential issues that agitate Nigerians require vigorous and inspired tackling by government and concerned stakeholders in such a way that there will still be an attentive public to carry on the requirements of the democratic process. There is no better way of disenfranchising a people than by sentencing them to hard labour and perpetual suffering.

- Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

[Ayo Olukotun]

EDO ELECTION: A POSTMORTEM

by Ayo Olukotun

Last Sunday, the Independent National Electoral Commission announced that Mr. Godwin Obaseki, incumbent governor and Candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, had emerged winner of the Edo State governorship election, that took place the day before. Contrary to predictions of an election too close to call, Obaseki coasted home by a wide margin, polling 307, 955 votes, while his closest rival, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress, scored 223, 619 votes. For a State of 5 million or so people, the voting population and the number of citizens that elected Obaseki, less than 400, 000 must be judged as comparatively small. Not peculiar to Edo State or even to Nigeria, it however, even allowing for the COVID-19 pandemic, raises issues of legitimacy and the yell of whose democracy? Compared to the scale of violence and forebodings of the campaign season, the election itself, relatively peaceful and orderly by Nigerian standards, came off like a happy anti-climax, and to an extent, signals, occasional hitches notwithstanding, the maturing of INEC from an earlier bungling phase and elections ridden with logistical fiascos. Hopefully, the Commission will sustain its new tempo through the fast-approaching Ondo election and well beyond it.

One of the questions or puzzles frequently raised in ongoing discourse is why the ruling APC, not only lost by an appreciable margin, but suffered the humiliation of its candidate, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, losing in his own council. To some commentators, the election is the unmasking of the APC, whose honeymoon with the voters, have all but ended, considering that the government is currently grappling with severe social, economic and other problems. Plausible as that is, it would be foolhardy, if not unscientific, to build such a claim on just one example of electoral loss. A trend will have to emerge before such a hypothesis can be fully substantiated. A more convincing explanation has to do with the internal rifts within the APC, with virtually every state factionalized and conflict-ridden. Of course, the PDP carries its own burden of incoherence and internal crisis, but it far more cleverly managed the cracks by showing a united front with its governors and others rallying around the Obaseki-Shuaibu ticket. By contrast, several of the governors and big-wigs of the APC maintained a calculated aloofness from their candidate with a few such as Senator Rochas Okorocha, former governor of Imo State, openly mocking the defeated Ize-Iyamu, by saying that Edo people voted against injustice. Obviously, this may be a fallout of the undiplomatic and high-handed manner, in which Oshiomole ran the party during his tumultuous tenure as National Chairman. Beyond that, however, some have discerned a dress rehearsal of sorts for the 2023 election, in which case, it was important to send early warnings to perceived opponents by ensuring the defeat of their candidate. It is not clear how quickly the party will emerge out of its current debacle, and whether it would be a capable vehicle for the 2023 elections. Dwelling too much on political elites may be discounting the role of voters and the masses, a pitfall which the late Oxford scholar, Raufu Mustapha, consistently warned against. So, we must grant due credit to Obaseki, who as incumbent, made noteworthy inroads in governance, especially in the rehabilitation of school. In the absence of a formidable opponent, different from the somewhat jaded Ize-Iyamu, Obaseki’s achievements, though modest, were portrayed, through an adroit advertising campaign, as seminal.

In the same connection, is the fact that Ize-Iyamu appears too much a willing tool in the hands of the scheming and somewhat cynical Oshiomole, who was pursuing an advertised mission of cutting his enstranged godson to size. It was easy to see through such gimmicks, and to stay with the relatively performing Obaseki, than to line up behind someone else’s vengeance mission. Interesting too, is the backlash provoked by the role of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who as a party loyalist, robustly identified with Oshiomole’s candidate, thus making him a sitting duck for blame and charges of godfatherism. Captured in the slogan, Edo Is Not Lagos, it was easy to demonise his support as yet another attempt to ‘capture’ Edo for purposes other than good governance. On a broader canvass, Oshiomole’s choice of Ize-Iyamu should have been more rigorously interrogated by the party chieftains if only because of the hefty demarketing of the same candidate by Oshiomole, a few years ago. In other words, by simply allowing Oshiomole to impose a weak candidate, APC had conceded the moral ground to the opposition, making its efforts look more like performing the miracle of raising the politically dead. Matters were not helped by the relative inarticulateness of the APC candidate, who in any case, was overshadowed by the ubiquitous Oshiomole, who went everywhere campaigning for him. As matters stand, the election results have completed the demystification of Oshiomole and perhaps his predictable banishment into the political wilderness. His current downturn is an illustration of the Chinese philosopher, Confucius’s sagely counsel that, ‘before you go on a journey of revenge, dig two graves’. This writer had occasion to refer to the costly ego fight between Oshiomole and Obaseki as a journey of mutually self-assured destruction. As it turned out, by pushing Obaseki to the opposition party, the former APC National Chairman assured his victory, while unknowingly sentencing himself to premature political extinction.

There is much to learn, especially in our political environment, about the consequences of politics of bitterness carried to an extreme degree, but that is a matter for another day. Wisely, Obaseki has raised an inclusive banner rather than a narrow based triumphalist platform designed to settle scores. Time would tell, however, whether this is only post-election optics, or whether, he really means to govern above the politics of revenge. In this respect, he should be guided by two factors, namely: the small percentage of Edo citizens who elected him, and the fact that the State that has given him another 4-year mandate is still in the woods and remains one of the poorest in the nation, and in the nation at large. Consequently, spending time and resources on another revenge mission and the politics of exclusivity can only make matters worse by diverting his focus away from statecraft. This is the time for him to build a lasting legacy by improving upon the forays he has made in the direction of good governance. Also in need of healing and redirection is the APC, which, in spite of its internal divisions, raised its ante by congratulating the victorious Obaseki, thereby steering away the polity from the familiar do-or-die mentality. Nonetheless, it would appear that conflicts are mushrooming faster than the assignment of the National Reconciliation Committee set-up by the President.

For the party to matter to itself and to the electorates, it must be able to survive the internecine conflicts and clashes that continue to bedevil it. As at today, its future especially in the post Buhari era remains relatively uncertain, considering the fact that shadow-jostling for an election still 3 years away is already taking so much attention. Undoubtedly, there is need to reconfigure the two big parties in order to make them more like parties with clear policy niches than are loose assemblies of office-seeking individuals.

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

you have said it all

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