Dear all,
I am currently developing a multi-season occupancy model using unmarked.
While I have no problems with p and psi, with the extinction/colonization there is something odd. Specifically, in the top-selected model there is a positive effect of a parameter (namely: precipitation) on extinction (meaning, more rains, more empty plots). However, just by looking at the raw data, it is clear that the year with the lowest occupancy estimate is also the driest one.
How could that be possible?
I obtained the top-selected model by comparing parameter combination using dredge (I kept all covariates constant while comparing models for varying detectability, that used the best one for psi and so on).
I have already checked for correlations between covariates and performed a goodness of fit and the best selected one seems reasonably good.
best