Trevor Noah leaving The Daily Show

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Kevin M.

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Sep 29, 2022, 11:08:21 PM9/29/22
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For better or worse, he reshaped the series to cater to (pander to) a younger generation, making it all but unwatchable to viewers like me. I like Noah, but not as a host. 

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Kevin M. (RPCV)

Dave Sikula

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Sep 30, 2022, 4:50:27 AM9/30/22
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I'm with you on this one. I think I've long since made my feelings about Noah and his parade of skits and crappy accents well-known.

While the next host should probably be someone like Dulce Sloan (whose own career is probably in the midst of taking off), I wouldn't be surprised if Paramount just ends the franchise. Surely Office and South Park reruns must be more cost-effective. Does TDS content go viral enough among the young'uns? I would miss Klepper baiting MAGAs, though.

--Dave Sikula

David Bruggeman

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Sep 30, 2022, 11:31:22 AM9/30/22
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I think the Klepper stuff could have a continued life beyond The Daily Show as the occasional special (monthly, quarterly?).

If they don't end the show (now 26 years old and counting) outright, I could see them renaming it "The Weekly Show" and reducing their costs that way (I suppose they could do a full hour once a week).

David

PGage

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Sep 30, 2022, 11:42:28 AM9/30/22
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Matt Belloni at Puck says the 5-year contact Noah signed in 2017 was up, and in the current environment was never going to be renewed at anything close to the $16M/Season. Noah knew this, and knows he can make a lot of money just touring (he does very well) and then explore other opportunities. Belloni expects the franchise to continue with someone at a much (much) lower cost.

I stopped watching Noah regularly sometime during his first year, and only check in sporadically since (at increasingly long intervals). I feel like I should like him, but 4 times out if 5, I don’t. It probably is generational, but often it feels like he is regurgitating obvious points as if they are cutting edge, and I find myself more often annoyed than amused. 

But the kids do dig him. Reports are that his TDS does create a lot of online traffic. I think he is an example of someone who is more successful than basic cable can support. When Stewart blew up CC paid to keep him because it felt like a ticket to higher levels of revenue. But now, no matter how popular Noah is, the ceiling is low on how much more revenue he can generate for them. He will likely pop up at some streamer in some capacity in 9 months.

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M-D November

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Sep 30, 2022, 11:51:51 AM9/30/22
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That show already exists - it's called "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver".

Steve Timko

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Sep 30, 2022, 1:34:26 PM9/30/22
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Anyone have current ratings for all late night shows?

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Bob Jersey

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Sep 30, 2022, 3:21:52 PM9/30/22
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Nope, just the usual suspects about a particular show (e.g. recent claims by Gutfeld) or Futon Critic whom just has the big nets' 11.35 folks (Kimmel took the latest round)
B

Steve Timko, to M-D November et al, Sept 30th:

daves...@gmail.com

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Sep 30, 2022, 5:14:04 PM9/30/22
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I'd have to wonder what Noah's future looks like. Obviously, his standup career is (bafflingly to me) thriving, but how long can that last? (Indefinitely, one supposes ...). Acting would not seem to be in his future, though, at least based on his very limited range on TDS. Books, maybe? Politics back home?

--Dave Sikula


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David Bruggeman

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Sep 30, 2022, 5:27:59 PM9/30/22
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Noah's book "Born a Crime" was well received.  He had a strong international touring presence before anyone in the States knew who he was.  I'm guessing he's either maintained that or can revive it with more free time.

David

PGage

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Sep 30, 2022, 5:52:28 PM9/30/22
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I do think he is headed for some streaming based version of his TDS spiel, probably even more segmented to allow for friendly viral videos, and also, as has been suggested, less frequently than daily. He really is worth at least his $16M a year, just on a venue with more upside potential. I would bet $10 he will get a deal with AppleTV or Amazon inside of a year. Second bet, since he is probably ideally suited for a free or low cost ad- based service, but probably not Disney or Warner or Paramount or Comcast, which are all more conservative, would be Netflix.

daves...@gmail.com

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Sep 30, 2022, 5:58:15 PM9/30/22
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I don't disagree about him moving to streaming (like Dave and Stewart), but I wouldn't count Paramount out. He seems to have good relations with them and, eventually, their geezer audience that's addicted to procedurals is going to die off. Might be a good idea to cultivate a younger demo.

--Dave Sikula


Kevin M.

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Sep 30, 2022, 6:21:46 PM9/30/22
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Maybe he can replace the witless bigotry of Bill Maher on HBO? 

One can hope, right?

On Fri, Sep 30, 2022 at 2:58 PM daves...@gmail.com <daves...@gmail.com> wrote:
I don't disagree about him moving to streaming (like Dave and Stewart), but I wouldn't count Paramount out. He seems to have good relations with them and, eventually, their geezer audience that's addicted to procedurals is going to die off. Might be a good idea to cultivate a younger demo.

--Dave Sikula


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Kevin M. (RPCV)

Steve Timko

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Sep 30, 2022, 6:30:31 PM9/30/22
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Noah's depature earned a press release from the Donald Trump camp.

ICYMI: "Nolte: Trevor Noah Slinks Off ‘Daily Show’ After Losing 75% of Audience"

Trevor Noah was a waste of time, no talent, no anything. Jon Stewart was only slightly better, but highly overrated. Comedy Central should focus on comedy and not politics, because they’re not very good at it. If these characters ever went neutral or Conservative, they’d double and triple up the ratings—but nobody’s figured that out except me! Congratulations to John Nolte for his unique brilliance and insight.

 
 

David Bruggeman

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Sep 30, 2022, 6:43:42 PM9/30/22
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Maher's Real Time deal runs through 2024.  It might depend on how much Bill costs compared to Trevor, but after what will be 20 plus years at HBO, a change to a younger show wouldn't be the craziest thing.  Maher would still have his podcasts to refine his Abe Simpson impersonation.

David

PGage

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Sep 30, 2022, 6:45:02 PM9/30/22
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That would be nice, but I don’t see them hosting both Oliver and Noah. But I think Maher’s model, not just weekly, but more seasonal than Oliver, is the kind of thing we will see, perhaps coming from a different world city every week for three months, or something like that.

PGage

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Sep 30, 2022, 7:40:22 PM9/30/22
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It is really hard to find ratings numbers for late night shows, a huge difference from when I used to follow these numbers closely during Conan’s Tonight Show. I did find this though from Forbes:

Noah averaged 1.1M viewers his first season (2015-16), while Fallon was at 3.8M and Colbert 3.2M.

Forbes does not give average ratings for the entire 2021-22 season, just for August, which obviously is not very typical.

They have Noah at 383K, Colbert at 2.16M, and Fallon at 1.34M (Kimmel was 1.1M and Gutfield at 2.2M but I am not focusing on either as their August 2022 ratings even more anomalous than the others).

Forbes has Colbert with *only* a 31% decline in ratings from 2015, while Noah and Fallon are both around 65% decline.

Those decline percentages are probably an overestimate since they are based on low viewership August numbers only for 2022, but they give a sense of the magnitude of the changing environment. No matter how hot Noah is with the demo and viral videos, his TV numbers are low and falling, and CC can not make money paying him $16M. I will be shocked if whoever replaces him is paid more than $5M, and not surprised if it is less than that. CBS is probably still making a profit at 11:35, but NBC is likely only doing slightly better than breaking even. All of these guys will make less on their next contract than they do now, which is pretty much the point at which people move on to other gigs.


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Mark Jeffries

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Oct 1, 2022, 12:35:20 AM10/1/22
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You have to remember that most of the late-night hosts were on hiatus for most of August, with only Kimmel doing guest hosts that month.  Gutfeld's on every night and has a substitute on the nights off.  Also, he has that carryover audience over 65 that's been watching Fox News all night (if not all day) that no one else really has. But yeah, when Colbert has frickin' direct response ads on his show, you can tell late night is not what it used to be.

Mark Jeffries
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Kevin M.

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Oct 1, 2022, 12:39:13 AM10/1/22
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On Fri, Sep 30, 2022 at 9:35 PM Mark Jeffries <spotl...@gmail.com> wrote:
You have to remember that most of the late-night hosts were on hiatus for most of August, with only Kimmel doing guest hosts that month.  Gutfeld's on every night and has a substitute on the nights off.  Also, he has that carryover audience over 65 that's been watching Fox News all night (if not all day) that no one else really has. But yeah, when Colbert has frickin' direct response ads on his show, you can tell late night is not what it used to be.

Carson and Ed used to do live ads for dog food, and that was at the height of their run on The Tonight Show, so that feels like a clumsy barometer to try to use. 


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Kevin M. (RPCV)

Jim Ellwanger

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Oct 1, 2022, 12:46:28 AM10/1/22
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There’s a big difference between “an actual advertiser is willing to pay extra for a live commercial by the host and sidekick” and “we can’t even sell commercial time to an actual advertiser."

PGage

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Oct 1, 2022, 1:44:00 AM10/1/22
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I tried to make those caveats clear in my post, but yes, August is almost certainly an underestimate for the 2021-22 season ratings for Colbert and Fallon.

As I recall those dog food ads were for Alpo, which was a major brand. I would guess NBC got a pretty (inflation adjusted) penny for those spots. I am certain NBC made a huge profit from Carson’s Tonight Show, compared to what must be a very small margin with Fallon.

Mark Jeffries

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Oct 1, 2022, 8:50:23 AM10/1/22
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Yes.  And I believe that at least once I've seen Jimmie J.J. "Kid Dyno-Mite" Walker's Medicare Hotline ads in the first break while they have the insert of what's going on in the studio on the side.  Since that break is where the billboard ad is, one would guess that this is where CBS charges the most for Colbert, especially since the audience does drop as the hour goes on (and that's why the musical guest is always in the last act, ever since NBC got on Helen Kushner's case about having Neil Young come on with his band on Leno at 11:50).   And if you're forced to sell those kind of ads in your prime ad time, well I only hope to God that i don't see in that break the Camp Lejune ambulance chasers.

Mark Jeffries
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Steve Timko

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Oct 1, 2022, 12:52:46 PM10/1/22
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TMZ reports Roy WoodJr. is being considered as Noah's replacement. I'd watch him.


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PGage

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Oct 1, 2022, 1:37:11 PM10/1/22
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This is a very lo-cal news item, containing almost zero substance. Wood may well be the replacement, but there is almost nothing here that anyone of us on this list could not have written 36 hours ago. Of course almost the same could be said about several other current TDS corespondents. The one bit of News is that Wood’s contract is also up (would be interesting to hear where the others are in their contracts).

 Don’t think it will be folks like Samantha Bee or Amber Ruffin, for whom the kind of contract I imagine they will be offering would be a step down (or at best lateral). I imagine that for any of the current correspondents, and any of a number of even younger comics around, the Hosting gig would be a significant raise over their current deal, and still be in the $1-3M a year range.

Dave Sikula

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Oct 1, 2022, 2:54:50 PM10/1/22
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I really like Wood, but a) his standup career seems to be taking off, too, and b) his comic persona isn’t right. He’s best used in small doses (as with his traffic reports, that kill every week). His most effective schtick (imo) is being confused by and/or pissed off at something, and I don’t think that works in the anchor chair.

— Dave Sikula 

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On Oct 1, 2022, at 9:52 AM, Steve Timko <steve...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Steve Timko

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Oct 1, 2022, 3:35:35 PM10/1/22
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On Sat, Oct 1, 2022, 11:54 AM Dave Sikula <daves...@gmail.com> wrote:
I really like Wood, but a) his standup career seems to be taking off, too, and b) his comic persona isn’t right. He’s best used in small doses (as with his traffic reports, that kill every week). His most effective schtick (imo) is being confused by and/or pissed off at something, and I don’t think that works in the anchor chair.

I said something similar in this group when Colbert was starting The Colbert Report.




Steve Timko

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Oct 1, 2022, 11:44:44 PM10/1/22
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A TikTok about The Daily Show being cheap.



She sounds off on The Daily Show on another topic.

daves...@gmail.com

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Oct 2, 2022, 12:11:37 AM10/2/22
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You lost me at Tik ...

--Dave Sikula

PGage

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Oct 2, 2022, 12:30:54 AM10/2/22
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Same. I don’t do Tik and view any link to it I am sent as part of a Dateline Sting operation…

pbrown...@gmail.com

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Oct 2, 2022, 8:42:01 AM10/2/22
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Tiktok girl sounds like a petulant child who doesn't understand how the industry works. Posting random behind-the-scenes content without authorization from her employer? What a shocker that she's no longer employed by TDS. 
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