Hi Ann/ all,
The accuracy of the BBS survey is debatable for any species that doesn't hold a clear visible/ audible territory, but here are a few thoughts:
BBS uses a standard method based on birds seen or heard on a visit between April & mid-May, and another between mid-May and June -
therefore numbers will be based on breeding success at least one year ago, and probably from even longer ago as the "second wave" of 1-3 year old birds will arrive too late for at least some of these surveys
(and this year's birds haven't fledged yet).
Weather will be a factor, but poor weather could potentially increase the count - in my area Walthamstow Wetlands can have hundreds of birds visible on a cold drizzly day, that would be high and widely spread on a hot day.
The Oxford UMNH Swift Diary gives an indication of breeding success from year to year in central/ southern England, as it's a typical urban location, and has excess nesting sites so that's not a significant factor. Recent years have been as follows:
2024 = 77 chicks
2023 = 85
2022 = 83
2021 = 72
2020 = 69
2019 = 80
Sharp declines in the BBS survey in 2023 and 2024 do match up with two poor fledging years in 2020 and 2021, which is not proof of a connection but at least shows that theory could work
2024 was a mid-ranking year for Oxford UMNH based on recent numbers - ignoring sparrowhawk-affected figures, in the last two decades the range is 36-134.
London for me was slow to get started in 2024 but had good (compared to the last couple of years) peak numbers later in the season, so there were probably regional variations within each country for the effect of weather also.
None of the above proves anything, but something to think about!
All the best,
Mike
Hi Mike.
Re the increase in swifts in 2024 on BTO survey.
I find this very hard to believe.
Certainly in Sheffield, last year was a very hard year due to the weather.
They arrived late and left early, some possibly not even breeding.
I would be interested to know where the BTO gets its data from on swifts as
it may just be more recording undertaken as the swift groups expand and
carry out more surveys.
Thanks Ann