Burst initial loss calculation

[Robert Leslie]

I have calibrated initial loss for a site in NSW and wondering what is the best method of the following:

1) Ignore the calibrated loss and use the Probability Neutral Burst Initial Loss as per the guidance for NSW

or

2) use the method in Storm Injector which adjusts a calibrated initial loss using 'Prob Neutral BL' - for this second method does anyone know the details of how the calibrated initial loss is adjusted?

thanks in advance for any help on this subject

[Chris Ryan]

Hi Robert,

 

The adjustment of the calibrated loss is based on the equation:

 

IL_Burst-chosen=IL_Storm-chosen×IL_Burst-ARR / IL_Storm-AR (https://data.arr-software.org/nsw_specific)

 

So, it would be adjusted by the ratio of the Probability Neutral burst loss to the Global IL for the given AEP/Duration.

 

Technically, using a calibrated loss ranks higher in the Hierarchy of Approaches on the website above but there may be other factors to consider.

 

Regards,

 

Chris

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