Predictable or chaotic?

Valerie Brachya

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Jun 15, 2025, 7:18:20 AM6/15/25

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There was an interesting exchange on the listserv concerning whether climate change was predictable or chaotic. I have turned it into an ICYMI on the SCORAI website. Here is the link:

https://scorai.net/is-climate-change-predictable-or-chaotic/

Valerie

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Valerie Brachya

Research Associate

Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research

Lecturer, Tel Aviv University, Porter School for the Environment and Earth Sciences

Co-author 'Sustainable Lifestyles after Covid 19'

Ilan Kelman

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Jun 15, 2025, 7:30:24 AM6/15/25

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Thank you, Valerie - amazingly appreciated! Weather, climate, and climate change are both chaotic and predictable. It is not either/or; chaos and predictability are not in contrast, but rather work in tandem. Within mathematically chaotic systems which have different layers and levels of chaos, many layers and levels of predictability exist, also noting that future climate change analyses are more typically projections than predictions. Non-chaotic systems, too, generally have predictability limits.

Some sources on climate chaos and predictability from across the decades:

https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127497001965

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5389.728

https://doi.org/10.1002/0471721603.ch7

https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/878249

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3939-8

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Hope this assists, with thanks for all of your work,

Ilan

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Jennie Stephens

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Jun 15, 2025, 9:03:10 AM6/15/25

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Hello SCORAI colleagues and friends,

During these disruptive times when universities in the US and other places around the world are under attack, we can all engage in imagining transformation in higher education and reimagining the role of universities in advancing more just, healthy and peaceful futures.

These are the themes of my recently published book – Climate Justice and the University: Shaping a Hopeful Future for All (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024). The book is now available free and open access – can be downloaded here. And hard copies of the book can be ordered from any book-seller. A recent review of the book is available here.

The goal of the book is to catalyze new conversations about reclaiming the public good mission of universities and resisting academic capture by corporate interests and state actors. The book introduces a new kind of imagined university system called “Climate Justice Universities” Here is a link to a 3 minute video summarizing the main concepts in the book and the idea of Climate Justice Universities.

I am happy to give virtual book talks or participate in discussions about these efforts and about the future of universities. Please also consider recommending this book to university administrators and using this book in your teaching and research. The book could be a great selection for some book clubs.

With many other colleagues here in Ireland and beyond, I am also involved now in a new international collective called the Climate Justice Universities Union where we share resources and act in solidarity on the difficult work of transforming universities. All are welcome to join this collective so feel free to check out the website.

Thanks for considering these resources, and I look forward to connecting with some of you on these issues.

In solidarity for peace and climate justice,

Jennie

Jennie C. Stephens, PhD (she/her)

Professor of Climate Justice

National University of Ireland Maynooth

ICARUS Climate Research Centre, Maynooth University, Ireland

Climate Justice Universities Union Coordinating Team

Website: jenniecstephens.com Email: jennie....@mu.ie

Books

Climate Justice and the University: Shaping a Hopeful Future for All, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024

Diversifying Power: Why We Need Antiracist, Feminist Leadership on Climate and Energy, Island Press, 2020