Disc throwing today ie saturday 3/21 @ welsh

[Indu]

Anyone? May be 11am!

[Darnell]

I’m in for 11.

Darnell

[Thomas Gabrielle]

I'm in.

Thanks,

Thomas

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 09:44 Darnell <dburr...@gmail.com> wrote:

I’m in for 11.

Darnell

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[William Davis]

in

bring wipes and clorox

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From: rockul...@googlegroups.com <rockul...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Indu <i_ko...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2020 9:34:50 AM
To: Rockville Ultimate <rockul...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [RUlti] Disc throwing today ie saturday 3/21 @ welsh

 

Anyone? May be 11am!

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[Indu]

Ok. 11 @welsh.

Thanks

[Anne Marie Wissman]

Are you guys nuts? Why would you expose each other and your families and communities? Just because you're healthy doesn't mean you can't transmit infection, and you don't know who will end up on the receiving end who might be compromised. I know you think you can get away with wiping off the disc and washing your hands, but you will be in close contact with each other, sweating, breathing in the same space. This is so irresponsible of you. 

AMW 

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:17 AM Indu <i_ko...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Ok. 11 @welsh.

Thanks

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[Charles Yu]

^^+1.

Don’t be stupid please. I don’t wanna go through this every week.

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[Dan Nunes]

Agreed. Social distancing means staying at home as much as possible. Exercise solo. Every person going out risks extending this shutdown even longer. People can transmit the virus without showing symptoms. Please don’t be “Patient 31”: 

https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2020/03/20/Patient-31-South-Korea-social-distancing/stories/202003190019

Dan

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[repmo...@gmail.com]

Hey let’s lower the metaphorical temp here please.  I’m sure those planning to participate in this — this being throwing discs, not ultimate— are already planning to stay well apart, in all dimensions.  Not in “close contact “.  However, there are some reports suggesting airborne transmission beyond 2 meters and through aerosols remaining suspended for significant periods.  So this is not risk free, and somewhat more risky than just going for a solo walk or run.  Bottom line, research carefully and make responsible decisions—but let’s start from a position of assuming we all care about each other and are acting in good faith.  Spirit of the game!

On Mar 21, 2020, at 10:33 AM, Charles Yu <charl...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Andrew Nguyen]

+1 bump 

Don't do this. Stay in and throw into your closet after you drape it with a heavy blanket.

Love, 

your local idiot window 

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[Charles Yu]

Or find a field, grab a few discs, and throw hucks and see how close together you can get them. 

We don’t think anyone is acting in bad faith. Spirit of the game also dictates that we ought to tell our teammates when they’re making the wrong call, and should reconsider or retract, even if the call was made in good faith.

[Anne Marie Wissman]

I apologize for the tone of my initial reply, and I am not presuming bad faith on anyone's part. I appreciate the clarification about not playing ultimate, and I am sure that meeting up carefully in an open space with distance and care for the disc seems like it should be no different from going for a walk/run and staying far away from your neighbors.  And lord knows we all need to get exercise and avoid going stir crazy. I just worry about our unconscious tendencies to touch our faces, etc and introducing an unnecessary vector, among people who are not already in forced daily contact.  I know there's plenty of people out there ignoring all the recommendations so what harm would this do in the grand scheme of things? But the eventual success of the life-distrupting measures we're taking depends on each of us doing what we can. At this stage there is so little actual information, and so little testing, that we can only go by the early models that say that we can still make a difference in slowing this down. Best wishes to all of you and your families.

AMW

[Jeremy]

Just to be clear, social distancing actually prolongs the shutdown but reduces the severity in terms of the number of immediate cases. That will save lives in the near term but there will be dire consequences long term.  For instance, how many people will die from heart attacks because they didn't play pick-up sports for 6 months?  Or how many more suicides will occur because of social isolation and economic despair?  We may never know because these additional deaths will be spread over decades.  An epidemiologist neighbor sent this yesterday in a discussion about school shutdown.

"I will be really frank, in the safety of this group, and suggest that the school shutdown, although it is the #1 thing to slow the spread, is not good in the long term. It will not reduce the NUMBER of infections, only the TIME for those infections to happen. The area under the curve in terms of numbers stays the same. So to prevent overwhelming of hospitals, we are grinding life as we know it to a full halt, killing the economy likely for a decade to come, putting people out of work, and offering widespread panic. 

The reason infection numbers are increasing dramatically is because we are TESTING, not because so many new people are becoming infected. We have no denominator. We have zero idea of how many people were infected and cleared the virus. AND, now tests are being reserved for the oldest and sickest. This will give a false accounting of morbidity and mortality from the virus.

What we really need is for every person to get the soon-to-come ELISA (antibody test) to see who has already been exposed."

Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android

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[William Davis]

that will nice to find out

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From: 'Jeremy' via Rockville Ultimate <rockul...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2020 1:02:25 PM
To: dann...@gmail.com <dann...@gmail.com>; Charles Yu <charl...@gmail.com>
Cc: Anne Marie Wissman <birdb...@gmail.com>; Rockville Ultimate <rockul...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [RUlti] Disc throwing today ie saturday 3/21 @ welsh

 

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[Krishnan Balakrishnan]

I don’t think Jeremy’s email referring to the area under the curve is quite correct. This construct of physical distancing cannot be viewed as a trade off between ”take your lumps now versus spread the same number of lumps over a period of time”

See the article in the Washington Post “the simulation shows how to flatten the curve”. Physical distancing reduces the probability of infection. It’s effectiveness is purely driven by the percentage of the population who practice this distancing.

HTH,

Krishnan 

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[repmo...@gmail.com]

All other math aside, clearly there is a nonzero chance for ongoing studies to produce means for improvements in resistance and treatment. So even apart from concerns about medical system peak loading, buying time may save lives.    

On Mar 21, 2020, at 2:30 PM, Krishnan Balakrishnan <krishnan....@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Jeremy]

This construct of physical distancing cannot be viewed as a trade off between ”take your lumps now versus spread the same number of lumps over a period of time”

True.   But it's different lumps...deaths from covid19 vs deaths "caused" by social distancing.

So what public health experts will have to determine what the negative effects of prolonged isolation are and contrast that with the ramifications of doing nothing, enforcing mild social isolation, etc. 

I'm not an expert, so I have no idea but it's interesting to think about.

Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android

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.

[Katie Schwarz]

Jeremy- I think that is a bit of a distraction. Wikipedia says that the fatality rate for suicide is 13.42 per 100,000 people per year.  Even if the covid 19 death rate is as low as 1%, that would be 1,000 per 100,000 infected people.  So even if the suicide rate goes up by an order of magnitude, it will still be one order of magnitude less than the low estimate covid 19 death rate.

Plus, other death rates will change too (for instance, driving causes 11 deaths per 100,000 people/year, and people are driving less now because they can't go anywhere).  

I agree that death rate isn't the only thing to optimize over, but it seems to be the obvious thing to do in the short term to buy more time.

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/rockultimate/1766025174.256970.1584822330728%40mail.yahoo.com.

[Jeremy]

Sure.  Suicide is just one factor.  Now let's do "deaths due to starvation" over the next decade because the world economy has crashed so hard that there's no money for famine relief.  Currently that number sits at about 9 million people per year.  An order of magnitude on that puts it at 90 million.  All of a sudden the 38 million people we'd lose to Covid19 looks like a "small" number.

Maybe CP (our resident expert on this topic) would share his thoughts?

-Jeremy

[Michael Bale]

I can provide some perspective as a computational biologist specializing in infectious diseases.

Regarding timing, the area under the curve, and social distancing: the graphic that we’ve probably all see about flattening the curve is necessarily simplified a lot! The WaPo article that was referenced is a pretty good lay-person explanation of the effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be implemented. For pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, the average number of secondary cases from a single infection is 3 or 4. If, however, we reduce the amount of contact and movement that potential infected individuals have, that reduces this number to closer to 1 or even less than 1. This reduced rate of infection both lessens the absolute number of cases and frequency of cases — Ie flattens the curve. The point of flattening the curve is to lessen the strain on the healthcare system and allow for healthcare providers to focus on the most sick. 

Ancillary deaths from social distancing: this is a fair point and one that public health officials have attempted to convey — try and stay active, even if it’s just marching in place while watching tv, or do any bodyweight exercises you can in your home, apartment, yard, or small field near you and also Skype or call friends, catch up with people you’ve fallen out of contact with, play online video games with open party chats, this will reduce the feelings of isolation (and of course reach out to people if you are struggling). This all being said, controlling a disease that we have no treatment for, is more contagious than, and more deadly than the flu is of paramount importance and I think the lockdowns are prudent choices.

Economic ramifications: I’m neither qualified to nor comfortable commenting on and reasonable minds can disagree on the impact of the quarantine on the economy and how best to navigate policies to ameliorate both short- and long-term economic strife.

Testing and ramp up testing: testing is extremely difficult for any new outbreak, especially one that becomes incredibly widespread very quickly. For example, 25% of cases of the common cold are caused by human coronaviruses and dealing with false positives due to previous exposure to the common cold is why an ELISA has been slow to be developed. In the current climate with limited facilities able to test and testing kits being somewhat limited public health officials will focus on those presumptive positives that are most likely to yield a positive result so as to both get that person treatment and determine who else they may have transmitted the virus to — this is sop for outbreaks of any pathogens in the early stages if tests are not readily available. With ramp up of testing starting to occur in nyc for example we will see both the effect of the ramp in number of cases and rate of positives, but the overall structure of the transmission rate will not be changed, we are just reporting the number more accurately. With every outbreak we don’t have a clear idea about the denominator, but epidemiological models do a very good job of taking that into account and still showing how the progression of the pathogen goes through time using perceived testing fractions (eg nyc went from maybe testing 1% to testing 7% — fake numbers; the models of the outbreak and any derived values — fatality, reproductive number, severity indexes — will have that factored in. But also, any data is better than no data and the under testing provides upper bounds on these values which is why you’ll see fatality rates (age-adjusted) between 0.5% and 3.5% (5x to 35x more deadly than seasonal flu).

Michael J. Bale

On Mar 21, 2020, at 18:20, Katie Schwarz <kasc...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Linda]

Hi, hope you are all well,

By social distancing and "flattening the curve", we're buying time to get measures in place to treat the disease enough to prevent overwhelming numbers of  hospitalizations for intubation/ ventilation. That being said, I am not impressed with the speed at which our top public health figures have moved to address the situation, and we are likely to take the over-regulated approach and wait longer than necessary to do something. Which would mean no Ultimate for quite a while 

(Yes, that's my main concern, here...not.)

Passive antibody transfer, especially with such a large percentage of people infected and recovered, should be employed to protect our medical personnel, seniors and those presenting with severe Covid-19 disease, imo. This procedure worked with SARS and Ebola (and lots of other diseases, historically, especially before effective antibiotics were discovered), and we have large numbers of young adults who are likely immune, until this thing mutates, at least -- they donate their antibody-containing blood, we isolate serum, administer to those sick to shut down viral replication in the body, you could even give IgG prophylactically to seniors to prevent infection. We do need to get a good ELISA up and running to show who has been infected, like Jeremy said. Labs could even screen for neutralizing antibodies to know which individuals have the highest titers (some lab magic required.)

https://www.jci.org/articles/view/138003

I"m confident a vaccine will be developed within a year, but there is a way forward prior to a vaccine and we need to begin implementing all measures!

1. Protect health workers

2. Social distance

3. Ensure availability of RT PCR test to identify Covid 19 patients

4. Begin ELISA testing to identify those recovered from past infection, with circulating neutralizing antibodies

5. Begin voluntary blood serum donations from recovered/immune individuals.

6. Administer IgG to high risk population and all those presenting with symptoms/testing positive for Corvid 19 EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT HOPITALIZATION

7. Consider early antiviral drug administration to patients in early stages of infection, based on past experiences (ie dont wait for clinical trials as long as drugs have not shown severe adverse side effects)

8. Keep working on/testing multiple vaccine candidates.

I think physicians are starting to speak up, but our emergency management efforts at the national level has been awful, again, imo. I'm sending this to you  to pass on info and perhaps to create a more proactive attitude, and maybe even pressure from the people. A lot of docs I know want more action, maybe we should be more vocal, when possible. Social media maybe? 

Anyway, I wish I could do more to help. Take care,

L.

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[Charles Yu]

I think we’re going down an irrelevant rabbit hole here. The bottom line for me is that we should all be doing our part to control what we can. Starvation, suicide, etc. don’t really fall under that umbrella.

[Marc Sorini]

All this dialog underscores to me what an interesting, talented, passionate, opinionated, and therefore awesome group of people you are.  I look forward to our next game and hope when things clear up we can all find a chance to celebrate getting through this together over a beverage or two.

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[Steve Van Wagoner]

Agree.

Sent from my iPhone

Steve Van Wagoner, PhD, CGP, FAGPA

2440 M Street, 

Suite 429

Washington, DC 20037

202-296-5299

On Mar 21, 2020, at 7:00 PM, Charles Yu <charl...@gmail.com> wrote:



I think we’re going down an irrelevant rabbit hole here. The bottom line for me is that we should all be doing our part to control what we can. Starvation, suicide, etc. don’t really fall under that umbrella.

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 6:46 PM Jeremy <disca...@yahoo.com> wrote:

Sure.  Suicide is just one factor.  Now let's do "deaths due to starvation" over the next decade because the world economy has crashed so hard that there's no money for famine relief.  Currently that number sits at about 9 million people per year.  An order of magnitude on that puts it at 90 million.  All of a sudden the 38 million people we'd lose to Covid19 looks like a "small" number.

Maybe CP (our resident expert on this topic) would share his thoughts?

-Jeremy

On Saturday, March 21, 2020, 06:20:15 PM EDT, Katie Schwarz <kasc...@gmail.com> wrote

Jeremy- I think that is a bit of a distraction. Wikipedia says that the fatality rate for suicide is 13.42 per 100,000 people per year.  Even if the covid 19 death rate is as low as 1%, that would be 1,000 per 100,000 infected people.  So even if the suicide rate goes up by an order of magnitude, it will still be one order of magnitude less than the low estimate covid 19 death rate.

Plus, other death rates will change too (for instance, driving causes 11 deaths per 100,000 people/year, and people are driving less now because they can't go anywhere).  

I agree that death rate isn't the only thing to optimize over, but it seems to be the obvious thing to do in the short term to buy more time.

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:25 PM 'Jeremy' via Rockville Ultimate <rockul...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

This construct of physical distancing cannot be viewed as a trade off between ”take your lumps now versus spread the same number of lumps over a period of time”

True.   But it's different lumps...deaths from covid19 vs deaths "caused" by social distancing.

So what public health experts will have to determine what the negative effects of prolonged isolation are and contrast that with the ramifications of doing nothing, enforcing mild social isolation, etc. 

I'm not an expert, so I have no idea but it's interesting to think about.

Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 3:15 PM, repmo...@gmail.com

<repmo...@gmail.com> wrote:

All other math aside, clearly there is a nonzero chance for ongoing studies to produce means for improvements in resistance and treatment. So even apart from concerns about medical system peak loading, buying time may save lives.    

On Mar 21, 2020, at 2:30 PM, Krishnan Balakrishnan <krishnan....@gmail.com> wrote:



I don’t think Jeremy’s email referring to the area under the curve is quite correct. This construct of physical distancing cannot be viewed as a trade off between ”take your lumps now versus spread the same number of lumps over a period of time”

See the article in the Washington Post “the simulation shows how to flatten the curve”. Physical distancing reduces the probability of infection It’s effectiveness is purely driven by the percentage of the population who practice this distancing.

HTH,

Krishnan 

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[Steven Van Wagoner]

Interesting, albeit academic questions. Too many variables operating to correlate suicide rate increase with Covid 19 ( actually know a little about this). Could be anxiety and fear of contracting the virus and dying; could be fear or reality of losing a job; could be watching one’s paper worth take a dive (not 1929, but 1987 and 2008 come to mind). Could be a host of factors.

Anyway, seems like hand washing, rational disinfecting, and social distancing are prudent to flatten the curve. What happens in two to four months is impossible to predict. I would rather be on the side of doing too much (which I seriously doubt is the case) than doing too little.

HHS modeling by this administration (January - August 2019, named Crimson Contagion) has shown we are ill prepared for a pandemic. Healthcare workers have no protective equipment, we don’t have enough respirators, and the healthcare infrastructure can’t support a pandemic.I hope they are wrong, but I doubt it. Already we are confirming cases at an accelerated rate faster than any other country. Since the government is inept, it is up to us.

Steve Van Wagoner, PhD, CGP, FAGPA

Licensed Psychologist
Chair, National Group Psychotherapy Institute
Washington School of Psychiatry
2440 M Street, NW

[Chatkan Bunnag]

Let me tell you how inept the federal response has been.  I went to Asia Feb 1-15 (Philippines, layover in S. Korea and Japan).  Every airport I went into, there was pre/post boarding areas with teams doing thermal temperature scans and pulling people out with fever to a special quarantine area for enhanced screening.  It was actually a pleasant flight back to the U.S. because there was almost nobody coughing or sneezing on the flight when compared to past years.  Also, almost everyone wore a mask, including the flight staff.  As we approached Dulles, I joked we are going to get a rectum exam and get grilled by customs.  Nada!  Nothing set up and I breezed through customs in under 10 minutes.  I was shocked and actually pissed off because there was no checking of any kind. 

 

Following European news, Germany announced their models expect 70% will contract the virus.  We can probably expect the same if not more due to our late response.  I am expecting and prepared to eventually get this and you should too.  For our group, we are healthy and may not feel any adverse effect. It’s our families and friends we are socially distancing for.  If everyone gets sick at the same time, there are not enough hospital bed/ventilators for everyone.  But if we all can delay sickness over a longer period of time, we can take care of more people.  That is what flattening the curve is all about….not to prevent sickness but to be able to take care of people with limited number of hospital beds over time.   The best example I can give is a restaurant with 100 tables.  In a normal night, 80 tables are being served and people leave within one hour.  If 50 additional people suddenly come in, then they can only serve 20 more and 30 people don’t get to eat (this is the spike).  But if 40 people come in at 8pm, then 40 at 9pm and 50 at 10pm, then everyone gets to eat (this is flattening the curve).

 

Here is what I did for exercise today.  I went to a field, picked a spot and threw 8 discs.  Then I jogged to one of the disc.  For the other seven discs, I did suicide sprints to pick up each disc and bring back for the next set throwing round.  Did this for an hour.  Heck of a workout.

 

Thanks for letting me rant.

 

Chatkan

[Steve Van Wagoner]

Thanks for the workout tip Chatman. Sounds brutal but effective. I’ve found myself running a lot more than I normally did. If I can stay injury free, I will ironically be in better shape than pre-virus.

I had the same experience at Dulles in late February returning from Ecuador. And the scenes out of O’Hare last week were a public health nightmare.

Steve

Sent from my iPhone

Steve Van Wagoner, PhD, CGP, FAGPA

2440 M Street, 

Suite 429

Washington, DC 20037

202-296-5299

On Mar 22, 2020, at 2:32 AM, Chatkan Bunnag <cha...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Krishnan Balakrishnan]

Regarding the current state of infection detection, seems we as a nation are seeing the effects of ignoring this issue during the months of January and February. So, this exponential increase day by day right now is the result. 

Am so hoping we last out March and April and see the effects of distancing and sheltering in place. 

Thanks to so many nice points raised in this group. I learned several new perspectives from this thread.

Re: the concept of ineffective governance, here are some musings on a Sunday morning.

Over and over again, in so many areas of governance, we find systems are not able to handle systemic threats that have been uncovered by simulation modeling of new vectors. One just needs to look at studies in various fields (utilities like water and electricity, medical systems, cyber security, infrastructure and climate change) and see that when one studies systems and break their foundational principles, they are found wanting.

From the perspective of a decision maker in government, One would look at the price tag for “solutions” associated with the various scenarios and taken the approach of, “umm, don’t have the budget for this.” One attends the meeting where the scientists showcase the scenarios, nod one’s head and then shelve this for “further consideration”. 

At every level of government bureaucracy, the price tag for seemingly radical change seems too high to pay and too difficult to take on when viewed in the abstract. So, given limited budgets, We sometimes  attempt to do the best We can with the resources we have— which invariably leads us right back into the “too little, too late” crossroads. 

Right now, we just happen to be living through such a modeling scenario. 

Hopefully, we learn some systemic government change lessons from these next few months. Something tells me we will need it again beyond n-COVID19.

Krishnan

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