Major event offering hope but demanding more attention

[Paul Werbos]

https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/08/22/spacex-launches-space-for ces-x-37b-spaceplane-to-demo-laser-communications-quantum-navigation/

Many of us know how events which seem small from a distance may have implications which are much huger than they looked at first glance. Ben Franklin popularized the old poem "For want of a nail... the war was lost." One of my first papers on "backpropagation" (the foundation of modern Neural networks and AGI) presented it as a way to do sensitivity analysis, to pinpoint the little "nails" which most drive big outcomes. 

This new story about Space Force is an example of such a "nail." On the surface, when I saw the story of France24, it sounded like yet another story on Elon Musk and SpaceX. It seemed to point towards 

MORE pessimism about the hopes of the US to catch up with the new big players like China in crucial advanced technologies. It talked about the ablative shields and tiles used by SpaceX to survive re-entry ..

an obsolete technology, grossly inferior to the "hot structures" technologies developed decades ago by the real leaders in space vehicle design. (TASC did not publicize all of their findings, but people like Jess Sponable of WPAFB worked hard enough to get the follow-ons they would have had if there were less...

corruption in DC.) There is more to be said, because the cost of access to space is a crucial  variable in deciding whether humans EVER develop a sustainable space economy...

BUT THE STORY ABOVE IS MUCH BIGGER THAN THAT.

The key point, in my view, is that X37B is being used as a testbed for quantum sensing and more advanced GNC (guidance, navigation and control) technology. These are DUAL USE technologies, of obvious benefit to military defense in the new era when defense against drones becomes more and more essential to human survival.  See https://drpauljohn.blogspot.com/2025/06/radical-new-nuclear-options.html for a link to the most important new technologies; they include, for example, the attached paper which is in the USPTO files for my new patent on tQuA quantum technology. 

I am bccing a young space policy activist who asked, in effect: how could we cause actual IMPLEMENTATION of what security council called for in June 2023 (posted in many pl;aces, like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpnfK5Zhxho), a new global open internet platform which, among other things, would let us "see the sky" and provide warnings to all nations on earth? Pious policy manifestos are not enough to do that; we need real technology development. This new X37B is a very important step towards opening the door to developing that kind of technology in reality. It gives hope, at a time when

policy makers in all nations and UN seem to be drifting into ever more drunken empty cocktail parties

accomplishing nothing real at a level high enough to be relevant.

HOWEVER, IT IS ONLY A FIRST STEP, WORTH NOTHING UNLESS THERE IS MORE FOLLOWUP AND ATTENTION. Crucial requirements:

1. The global warning needs are so severe, as the Security Council hinted, that international partnerships

need to be more visible and strengthened. As I reach this point, I add a bcc to one on Von Neumann's four most important direct followers, who developed the kind of dynamic game theory essential to really understanding the tricky issues of how to balance deterrence and defense, so as to move towards a sustainable win-win kind of global balance, and avoid the VERY POWERFUL attractors towards

global war and suicide. 

2. Because the new technologies are necessary to human species survival in any case, for additional reasons, we really need to understand how "advanced S&T in the dead of night" USUALLY fails.

Perhaps the Manhattan Project was an exception; I am grateful I saw Glauber's "home movies" of what actually happened in that project, showing crucial roles of Oppenheimer (whom I met) and Von Neumann,

injecting strategic intelligence far beyond what I have seen in recent decades in all new advanced technology development.  I myself saw the key people at TASC, at Tsinghua and NSFC who caused leadership in some technologies I led pass dramatically, almost overnight, from US to China, worth decades of leadership, related to what we discussed in 2014: https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0554. The "wise heads" in the spirit of DOGE thought turning it over to trusted companies would put the US ahead, but the exact opposite happened (for reasons some of us know wel, having seen how such contracts are almost always managed.)

The X37B project has enough of the old Manhattan spirit that there is SOME hope... but frankly, outperforming the SLS or HTV2 programs is simply NOT ENOUGH to overcome the disadvantages of not enough access to what open global competitive basic RD&D can give if IT is managed right, in the spirit of Vannevar Bush (of the old NSF prior to 2014).  

3. "SEEING THE SKY" is the highest specific priority target for MANY of the new technologies discussed below, of dual use. I am bcc'ing some of the leaders in that essential cluster of technologies, which range from better resolution and better pattern recognition when we look at the sky in electromagnetic bands (like light!), to new S&T needed to resolve signatures of nuclear forces important both to seeing the sky and

seeing the earth. The latter would require an effort as intelligent as the Manhattan Project, and would have to build on better technology for things like "quantum AGI" needed for the earlier electromagnetic work.

This above all is why I urge an open international effort for all of these aspects. Since these require new experiments modeling and sensing nuclear forces, beyond the limits of the old EWT+QCD model, as summarized in the links I have cited here, they tell me not to continue the level of comfidentiality which Teller and Schwinger urged me to maintain in the past when circumstances were different. (Again, see the links.)

Best of luck to us all. We all need it, as we all face a

"minefield" kind of strategic decision and game challenge.

[Tim Cash]

To each his own view for Armageddon.  I just finished presenting a joint lecture between Mark Sonter and myself to the Second Space Visions Symposium in Cape Canaveral last Friday, and learned a few things from doing the math, and from watching the "Ship" or Starship during the 10th space test.  What I learned and had almost no appreciation for is just how H-U-G-E the volume of that ship is.  Yes, I computed the mass, volume, and delta-V for up to ten starships, and learned that just one fully fueled Starship (1626 MT) is between three to four times the mass of the entire International Space Station (450 MT).  Why that matters: In the event of an asteroid or other potential impactor on Earth, we can potentially use, for example, upwards of ten fully fueled Starships to deflect the asteroid away from impacting our home planet, the Earth.  It may require more or less energy than that, depending on how good and how fast we are at getting a stable of Starships out towards Mars and/or the Asteroid Belt.  This will require refueling capabilities on Mars,  on Phobos, other bodies in space where potential impactor mitigation missions may be staged.  There may be other methods to deflect an asteroid based on nuclear detonations, etc. but this method requires no permission for the in-space use of nuclear warheads.  This study will likely require months to years to complete.  Decades to accomplish.  What if we do not have decades?  What if a large threat were already on it's way to impact Earth.  In this case, this would be a defining moment for our species to cooperate on a joint project to save our planet and species from obliteration.  Needless to say, this is a project well worth putting in place for the sake of all our children.  How do "we" pay for this project?  Well, if we set into motion a well-funded asteroid mining program for the entire planet, then the chances of success are greatly increased for asteroid mitigation in the future for saving the Earth.  We would then use the asteroid mining resources in any such asteroid mitigation mission as they are far closer to the threats, therefore quicker response time to save the Earth. 

Mark, take note of this expansion of our lecture in order to try and shake the apple tree and make things happen!

Regards,

Tim Cash

cash...@protonmail.com

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Tim Cash

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[a.p.kothari astrox.com]

Thank you, Tim. And Mark. A veritable response to the possibilities.

Rather than just a doom and gloom pronouncements from some! That the world is ending, the humanity is going to be extinct etc etc. It is not.

 

Yes, a planet killing asteroid could do that and your suggestions are curiously interesting and closer to being possible (notwithstanding the movie “Armageddon”! (J)) . Of course Starship 10 was highly successful and V3 (at 308 ft) and V4 (at 366 ft) would offer more capacities if successful.

 

I think refueling is still a large issue for that many refuelings. IN SITU production of LH, CH4 and LOX is still far enough away.

Just finished listening to a webinar by SpaceNews with Bhavya and two other people on nuclear propulsion. It would cut down the time of travel by about 50% (but would still be more problematic for refueling now with LH2)(and boiloff which has been apparently solved by BO though for shorter time like 30 days).

 

 

 

 

------------------------------------------------------

Dr. Ajay P. Kothari

President

Astrox Corporation

 AIAA Associate Fellow

 

Ph: 301-935-5868

Web:  www.astrox.com

Email: a.p.k...@astrox.com

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[vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu]

Response to Paul Werbos on X-37B, quantum sensing, and “seeing the sky”

Paul, thank you for sharing this. Your reminder about the “small nails” that shape big outcomes is very apt. The X-37B demo of laser communications and quantum navigation may look like just another SpaceX story, but as you point out, it could mark a turning point.

You’ve been consistent in stressing two things: first, that quantum sensing and advanced GNC are not optional luxuries but essential to survival in an age of drones and strategic instability. And second, that we have technical pathways—your work with David Hyland on NRPR + ICI, and the potential of tQuA quantum technology—that could make global “see the sky” capabilities real rather than rhetorical.

The challenge now is follow-up. A few steps seem urgent:

• Build visibility for QuATh + ICI with near-term demonstrations that show this isn’t speculative but doable.
• Anchor the UN Security Council’s 2023 call for an open, global warning platform in concrete technology—QuATh/ICI is a natural fit.
• Form an international coalition of policy people, technologists, and astronomers to prepare a roadmap toward a demonstrator array.

Your note is a timely reminder that hope comes not from policy statements alone but from sustained attention to enabling “nails.” I agree that this is one of them, and I hope we can help drive the follow-up it deserves.

Vid Beldavs

 

No: power-satell...@googlegroups.com <power-satell...@googlegroups.com> Kā vārdā Paul Werbos
Nosūtīts: ceturtdiena, 2025. gada 28. augusts 16:33
Kam: Millennium Project Discussion List <MILL...@hermes.gwu.edu>; Biological Physics and Meaning <Biological-Phys...@googlegroups.com>; Scientific Council of the Alt Planetary Futures Institute (Ap-Fi) <scientific-council-of-the-alt-p...@googlegroups.com>; 'Keith Horne' via Models of particles <models-of...@googlegroups.com>; Power Satellite Economics <power-satell...@googlegroups.com>
Tēma: Major event offering hope but demanding more attention

--

[Amalie Sinclair]

Some other " small nail" ..

Trump says he wants a 'Department of War' not a 'Department of Defense' – video

Trump says he wants a 'Department of War' not a 'Department of Defense' ... Donald Trump has said that he plans to rebrand the 'Department of Defense' by returning to the pre-1947 name, th...

https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/power-satellite-economics/007801dc19ea%245db88e10%241929aa30%24%40fotonika-lv.eu

.

[vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu]

Response to Paul Werbos and Amalie Sinclair

Paul, thank you for raising again the importance of “small nails” that shape the arc of world history. The X-37B tests may seem like just another step in the long chain of space technology demonstrations, but—as you stress—they could be decisive in enabling truly global “see the sky” capabilities.

Amalie, your reminder of the geopolitical context is equally urgent. Trump’s call to rename the Department of Defense as the “Department of War,” together with Putin’s war on Ukraine, both strike at the fragile rules-based world order that has underpinned stability since 1945. The Global South above all depends on that order for security, trade, and development, yet it is the first to suffer when the major powers revert to zero-sum competition.

A credible response must have two layers:

• Technological follow-up: moving quickly to show that quantum sensing, QuATh + ICI, and related “see the sky” platforms are feasible, open, and collaborative—not just speculative. This could anchor the UN Security Council’s 2023 call for a global warning platform in demonstrable hardware and data sharing.
• Political renewal of multilateralism: Europe, working in partnership with the Global South, can help stabilize the rules-based order. One necessary step is to revisit Russia’s privileged Security Council status, granted in the Alma Ata Declaration of 1991 on the condition that it would respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors—a commitment Russia has since violated. Another is to counter the transactional, dominance-driven vision of U.S. policy now being voiced, by re-committing to institutions and coalitions that prioritize the common good.

In this way, “small nails” like X-37B technology demonstrations can be joined with the larger nails of institutional reform and renewed global partnerships. Only then can we hope to avoid the collapse into nationalistic confrontation that both Trump and Putin seem to welcome.

—Vid Beldavs

 

No: Amalie Sinclair <ana...@yahoo.com>
Nosūtīts: sestdiena, 2025. gada 30. augusts 23:50
Kam: 'Paul Werbos' <paul....@gmail.com>; 'Power Satellite Economics' <power-satell...@googlegroups.com>; vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu
Tēma: Re: Atb.: Major event offering hope but demanding more attention

 

Some other " small nail" ..

Trump says he wants a 'Department of War' not a 'Department of Defense' – video

 

[Claudio Cioffi]

Greetings Paul, et al.

I rarely chie in, since I am interested in but not an expert in space S&T. 

However, as I have seen sometimes in the past, these claims are not well informed by contemporary political science and scientific IR (international relations theory):

• Political renewal of multilateralism: Europe, working in partnership with the Global South, can help stabilize the rules-based order. One necessary step is to revisit Russia’s privileged Security Council status, granted in the Alma Ata Declaration of 1991 on the condition that it would respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors—a commitment Russia has since violated. Another is to counter the transactional, dominance-driven vision of U.S. policy now being voiced, by re-committing to institutions and coalitions that prioritize the common good.

In this way, “small nails” like X-37B technology demonstrations can be joined with the larger nails of institutional reform and renewed global partnerships. Only then can we hope to avoid the collapse into nationalistic confrontation that both Trump and Putin seem to welcome.

This is just raw partisan, opinionated politics, in my view unhelpful for space S&T policy because it is actually part of the problem. Global powers do what they do. It’s the natural law of great power dynamics, governed by principles of deterrence, compellence, other forms of power, as well institutional evolutionary dynamics; going back thousands of years. Today these analyses are formalized by quantitative, mathematical, and computational theories that operate at a much more scientific, sophisticated level than these raw political discussions. 

The truly scientific problems in these areas today have to do with missing complex institutional (mis)developments, and very challenging combinatorics, caused by a 9-nuclear horizontal prioliferated system where alliances (the stabilizing mechanism of multipolar systems) have become very challenging to calculate. But these difficulties have arisen before and somehow we are still around to write the history. 

USSTRATCOM and DOD/OSD/SMA know all about this. But they are digesting this problem and its solutions while Iran has been harnessed, for now at least, the Russo-Ukrainian war continues, and China persists with its own policies (and domestic dynamics).

Paul: I miss our lunches at the Cosmos Club, but still remember them. Too few of them. I also miss chatting with Howard at the Krasnow Institute and discussions with Harold Morowitz.

All best wishes,

Claudio

–––
Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Ph.D., D.Sc.Pol.
University Distinguished Professor Emeritus, George Mason University
Jefferson Science Fellow of the U.S.A. National Academy of Sciences
Elected Fellow of the  American Association for the Advancement of Science AAAS
        


Research Gate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Claudio_Cioffi
Academic page: https://socialcomplexity.gmu.edu/faculty/csc-faculty-dr-cioffi/
National Academies page:   http://sites.nationalacademies.org/PGA/Jefferson/PGA_046486
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6445-9433

SSRN https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm

On Aug 31, 2025, at 5:09 AM, vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu wrote:

External Message: Use Caution

Response to Paul Werbos and Amalie Sinclair

Paul, thank you for raising again the importance of “small nails” that shape the arc of world history. The X-37B tests may seem like just another step in the long chain of space technology demonstrations, but—as you stress—they could be decisive in enabling truly global “see the sky” capabilities.

Amalie, your reminder of the geopolitical context is equally urgent. Trump’s call to rename the Department of Defense as the “Department of War,” together with Putin’s war on Ukraine, both strike at the fragile rules-based world order that has underpinned stability since 1945. The Global South above all depends on that order for security, trade, and development, yet it is the first to suffer when the major powers revert to zero-sum competition.

A credible response must have two layers:

• Technological follow-up: moving quickly to show that quantum sensing, QuATh + ICI, and related “see the sky” platforms are feasible, open, and collaborative—not just speculative. This could anchor the UN Security Council’s 2023 call for a global warning platform in demonstrable hardware and data sharing.
• Political renewal of multilateralism: Europe, working in partnership with the Global South, can help stabilize the rules-based order. One necessary step is to revisit Russia’s privileged Security Council status, granted in the Alma Ata Declaration of 1991 on the condition that it would respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors—a commitment Russia has since violated. Another is to counter the transactional, dominance-driven vision of U.S. policy now being voiced, by re-committing to institutions and coalitions that prioritize the common good.

In this way, “small nails” like X-37B technology demonstrations can be joined with the larger nails of institutional reform and renewed global partnerships. Only then can we hope to avoid the collapse into nationalistic confrontation that both Trump and Putin seem to welcome.

—Vid Beldavs

 

No: Amalie Sinclair <ana...@yahoo.com>
Nosūtīts: sestdiena, 2025. gada 30. augusts 23:50
Kam: 'Paul Werbos' <paul....@gmail.com>; 'Power Satellite Economics' <power-satell...@googlegroups.com>; vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu
Tēma: Re: Atb.: Major event offering hope but demanding more attention

 

Some other " small nail" ..

Trump says he wants a 'Department of War' not a 'Department of Defense' – video

 

<image002.png>   <image004.png>

This above all is why I urge an open international effort for all of these aspects.Since these require new experiments modeling and sensing nuclear forces, beyond the limits of the old EWT+QCD model, as summarized in the links I have cited here, they tell me not to continue the level of comfidentiality which Teller and Schwinger urged me to maintain in the past when circumstances were different. (Again, see the links.)

 

Best of luck to us all. We all need it, as we all face a

"minefield" kind of strategic decision and game challenge.

 

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[vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu]

Dear Claudio,

Thank you for your thoughtful response. I greatly value your long experience in quantitative and institutional approaches to international relations. You are right that analyses of deterrence, compellence, and alliance dynamics have deep historical and theoretical roots, and these remain vital to understanding our present multipolar nuclear environment.

At the same time, I believe the specific case of Russia’s position in the UN Security Council is not simply a matter of “raw politics” but of institutional design and legal commitments. When Russia was granted the USSR’s permanent seat in December 1991, this was done under the Alma Ata Declaration and related CIS agreements. Those documents contained explicit assurances that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the newly independent states would be respected, and that force would not be used against them. In other words, Russia’s privileged status at the UN was not unconditional—it was contingent on behavior.

Given Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, those conditions have clearly been violated. The General Assembly therefore has the authority, under precedent and the UN Charter framework, to suspend Russia’s exercise of privileges until the original conditions are restored. This is not about idealism versus realism; it is about ensuring that institutional commitments carry weight in practice.  The General Assembly in fact has the duty not just the authority to suspend Russia’s privileged status to protect the UN as an institution.

As you point out, multipolar nuclear dynamics are extremely complex and fragile. Precisely for that reason, even small institutional guardrails that reinforce norms of sovereignty and non-aggression are worth preserving. If those are eroded, deterrence itself becomes less predictable and more dangerous.

I would also argue that this is not just a “Western” concern. Putin has attempted to cloak Russia’s war in anti-colonial language aimed at the Global South, but the reality is that a rules-based international system, grounded in sovereignty and sustainable development, is equally in the interest of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The UN SDGs and the Paris climate process are examples of the kind of cooperative frameworks that can provide common ground across blocs.

You are absolutely right that humanity has survived perilous systemic moments before, but the current one feels particularly dangerous because mechanisms to dampen escalation appear weaker than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A suspension of Russia’s Security Council privileges, grounded in the Alma Ata commitments, could serve as one concrete step to reinforce institutional credibility at a time when it is badly needed.

In the longer term, I agree completely with you and Paul that space science and technology can help us think beyond immediate rivalries—toward building the kind of sustainable, even multi-planetary, civilization that might finally stabilize these cycles. But to get there, we must first prevent the collapse of the rules-based framework here on Earth.

With respect and appreciation,
Vidvuds Beldavs

 

No: Claudio Cioffi <cci...@gmu.edu>
Nosūtīts: svētdiena, 2025. gada 31. augusts 14:33
Kam: vid.b...@fotonika-lv.eu; Paul J. Werbos <paul....@gmail.com>
Kopija: Amalie Sinclair <ana...@yahoo.com>; Power Satellite Economics <power-satell...@googlegroups.com>
Tēma: Re: Major event offering hope but demanding more attention

 

Greetings Paul, et al.

I rarely chie in, since I am interested in but not an expert in space S&T. 

However, as I have seen sometimes in the past, these claims are not well informed by contemporary political science and scientific IR (international relations theory):

• Political renewal of multilateralism: Europe, working in partnership with the Global South, can help stabilize the rules-based order. One necessary step is to revisit Russia’s privileged Security Council status, granted in the Alma Ata Declaration of 1991 on the condition that it would respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors—a commitment Russia has since violated. Another is to counter the transactional, dominance-driven vision of U.S. policy now being voiced, by re-committing to institutions and coalitions that prioritize the common good.

In this way, “small nails” like X-37B technology demonstrations can be joined with the larger nails of institutional reform and renewed global partnerships. Only then can we hope to avoid the collapse into nationalistic confrontation that both Trump and Putin seem to welcome.

This is just raw partisan, opinionated politics, in my view unhelpful for space S&T policy because it is actually part of the problem. Global powers do what they do. It’s the natural law of great power dynamics, governed by principles of deterrence, compellence, other forms of power, as well institutional evolutionary dynamics; going back thousands of years. Today these analyses are formalized by quantitative, mathematical, and computational theories that operate at a much more scientific, sophisticated level than these raw political discussions. 

The truly scientific problems in these areas today have to do with missing complex institutional (mis)developments, and very challenging combinatorics, caused by a 9-nuclear horizontal prioliferated system where alliances (the stabilizing mechanism of multipolar systems) have become very challenging to calculate. But these difficulties have arisen before and somehow we are still around to write the history. 

USSTRATCOM and DOD/OSD/SMA know all about this. But they are digesting this problem and its solutions while Iran has been harnessed, for now at least, the Russo-Ukrainian war continues, and China persists with its own policies (and domestic dynamics).

Paul: I miss our lunches at the Cosmos Club, but still remember them. Too few of them. I also miss chatting with Howard at the Krasnow Institute and discussions with Harold Morowitz.

All best wishes,

Claudio

–––
Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Ph.D., D.Sc.Pol.
University Distinguished Professor Emeritus, George Mason University
Jefferson Science Fellow of the U.S.A. National Academy of Sciences
Elected Fellow of the  American Association for the Advancement of Science AAAS
        

SSRN https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm

[Erinn van Wynsberghe]

Hi all,

News:

Trump intends to announce today that he is moving U.S. Space Command from Colorado to Alabama

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/02/trump-space-command-alabama-00539888

Erinn van Wynsberghe
M.Eng, B.Eng, MCASI, MRAeS

Aerospace and Physics Engineer

Founding President and CEO
VanWyn Inc.

eri...@vanwyn.com

www.vanwyn.com

(289) 260-8825

175 Longwood Road South, Suite B21, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8P 0A1

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