Arctic tundra changes are a dire warning for us all
John Nissen
John Nissen
Hi everyone,
I was very hopeful that this article/letter in the Guardian [1] would come to the conclusion of the need for cooling of the Arctic environment, especially with the mention of Sir David King, but I became more and more disappointed as I read on. I think we should respond with a letter to the Guardian.
The authors, Prof Phoebe Barnard and Liliana Karesh, say we are at a crossroads of humanity, and governments around the world need to draft new constitutions to navigate the future more wisely. They refer to a "dramatic but essential plan" by way of a PNAS Nexus paper published in April called “The Earth at risk” with Sir David King a co-author [2]. For me, the paper completely lacks realism about the current situation: planetary heating is getting out of hand, especially in the cryosphere where we have a vicious cycle of warming and melting. I can’t understand how Sir David could have been willing to be listed as an author for such a paper, especially with a conclusion that “The only honest strategy for today is radical, immediate cuts in fossil fuel use”.
I am sorry that this message of bad tidings should come just before Christmas, but anyway…
Seasonal Cheers, John
[1] Barnard and Karesh (Guardian, 22nd December)
Arctic tundra change is a dire warning for us all
The shift of Arctic tundra and other carbon sinks to carbon sources (Arctic tundra is now emitting more carbon than it absorbs, US agency says, 10 December) reminds us that tipping points are largely irreversible on human timelines. We are involved in teams of specialists and students working to help global governments prepare for the decreasing stability of our planet, climate and societies. This needs fundamental changes while keeping them as steady as possible.
One of us co-authored, with Sir David King and 17 others, a dramatic but essential plan based on vast-scale ecosystem and climate restoration, and behavioural and systemic change.
If we are to survive the gauntlet of the next centuries, the Earth needs us to end values and habits that destroy it, and start new ones. This isn’t trivial: it demands that we relearn that our relationships with people and nature actually matter.
Our era of interconnected crises – climate change, destruction of nature, inequality, pollution, disease – can only be ended by addressing their root causes, ie our numbers, appetites and mindsets of entitlement and convenience.
Climate and ecological tipping points are high-risk domino effects. Where one is tipped, others fall into instability and scarcity. This threatens societies, the natural world and the food and water systems on which all life depends.
Our paper, Earth
at Risk, calls on leaders to recognise this crossroads of humanity, stop
running in circles and draft new constitutions that are up to the task of
navigating the future more wisely. The age of mindless individualism, profiteering
and competition is now, evidently to many, ending abruptly.
Prof Phoebe
Barnard (63) University
of Washington
Liliana Karesh (18) Co-president, Napa Schools
for Climate Action
[2] Fletcher et al. (PNAS Nexus, April 2024)
Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future
https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/3/4/pgae106/7638480#
Abstract
Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.
Here’s an extract:
Climate outlook
Planned cuts in global emissions are inadequate for protecting human security and Earth's remaining biodiversity. Under implemented national policies alone, dangerous heating is only avoidable with a massive rollout of GHG removal technologies and large-scale ecosystem restoration that is nowhere in evidence today. For instance, even the planned investment of $3.5B to develop four “direct air capture” hubs under the 2022 US Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will only remove the equivalent of 13 min of global emissions at full annual capacity (30). Planting 8 billion trees, one for every person on Earth, would remove the equivalent of only 43 h of global emissions after the trees reached maturity decades from now, and the change in albedo related to the new ground cover increases the complexity of expected benefits.
The only honest strategy for today is radical, immediate cuts in fossil fuel use. Only after emissions have begun a rapid downward trajectory should investments in carbon removal (the engineering for which has yet to be defined or validated) occur with speed and at scale (76). Even this will be met with ocean outgassing of CO2 such that climate recovery will see a long delay (33).
H simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
On Dec 24, 2024, at 2:57 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:
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rob...@rtulip.net
Herb and John
This Earth at Risk article you criticise applies weak logic. Its assertion that imperialism is a key problem derives from Lenin, and the communist tradition. Communism offers no serious political alternative to capitalism, so to argue for any such revolutionary anti-imperial switch is not realistic. Politics is about managing empires.
The logic needed to explain climate should be reformist and evolutionary, not revolutionary. The priority should be to advise governments of actions they can take to avert climate crisis. On this, restoring albedo should be number one. Start with DMS and MEER, prove MCB concept, and develop SAI governance while researching all options.
Emissions are going up, not down. This means the key priority is to find other ways to cool the world. Get governments to realise temperature is a priority and albedo is our best lever.
We should not want to damn the world to burning up, but that would be the unfortunate result of accepting the analysis of this Earth at Risk paper. Arguing against fossil fuels on imperial grounds has some major weaknesses. Imperialism is a de facto reality of planetary politics, with leading states exercising geostrategic power. That is not going away.
Premising a climate argument on ‘the world went away’ is not realistic. Unfortunately, that is what the strategy of decarbonisation amounts to.
The idea of opposing imperialism involves the construction of a political coalition committed to reining in imperial power as a priority. That agenda commands a tiny voter base, and no political coherence.
I find it disappointing that Sir David King sees value in aligning with the co-authors of this paper. Solar geoengineering will need some very different friends.
Regards
Robert Tulip
Here is the paper Abstract – from https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/3/4/pgae106/7638480
Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and
socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for
comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past
Earth’s material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the
Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by
vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while
escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk,
we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative
practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human
development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces
exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a
global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite
resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must
collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not
come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/E5F0C822-75FC-4541-9553-2B74C486A9AC%40gmail.com.