How is it possible to use Bayesian statistics of radiocarbon dates together with climatic information from ice core drills?

[Peter Stadler]

Hello all

How is it possible to use Bayesian statistics of radiocarbon dates together with climatic information from ice core drills? Does there exist a sample oxcal 14i-File?

Sincerely Peter

[Erik Marsh]

HI Peter, you probably want a depth model: https://c14.arch.ox.ac.uk/oxcalhelp/hlp_analysis_oper.html#deposit

If you check the manual and search the group forum, you'll find examples of how to code it.

Erik

[Peter Stadler]

Hello

I am not sure that a depth model would help, but thank you anyway for your sugestions! So I try to explain more detailed.

We have a series from 100 radiocarbon dates from 30 houses of Linear Pottery culture. The sequence of houses is calculated by seriation (Reciprocal Averaging or Correspondence Analysis) of ceramic find materials typology. The total time intervall involved is between 5650 BC till 5050 BC. The sequence of houses correlates with radiocarbon dates, so it is possible

to make an Oxcal Sequencing with A>=100%

Now we have other information, the orientation of houses, which was possible measured by watching the sunrise point  at the time of house construction. 

My co-author thinks that the orientation depends also on the climate. We have this climate curves for the 6th millennium showing peaks of warmth and valleys of coldness. Some of the peaks coincide with the house constructions, but it is not exact. Could there be a possibilty to find out to fit these house constructions (from Bayesian statistics) with the weather optimum peaks?

Maybe it is now clear or not(?) that a depth model would not or would fit to what we are doing? What do you think?

Peter

[MILLARD, ANDREW R.]

Hi Peter

 

If you have a multiplot with the results of your model you can use the data menu to add a climate sequence such as d18O at the top of the plot. This gives a visual comparison of climate with your archaeological sequence.

 

In principle you could construct a Bayesian statistical model that calculates the correlation of house orientation with climate while accounting for the dating uncertainty. Whether this can be done in OxCal I’m not sure. I can’t immediately think of way to do it. If you exported the MCMC sample it would be relatively straightforward to use that in R to do a regression.

 

Best wishes

Andrew

--

Dr. Andrew Millard

Associate Professor of Archaeology, and

Designated Individual under the Human Tissue Act,

Durham University, UK

Email: A.R.M...@durham.ac.uk 

Personal page: https://www.dur.ac.uk/archaeology/staff/?id=160

Scottish Soldiers Project: https://www.dur.ac.uk/scottishsoldiers

Dunbar 1650 MOOC: https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/battle-of-dunbar-1650

 

 

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Subject: Re: How is it possible to use Bayesian statistics of radiocarbon dates together with climatic information from ice core drills?

 

 

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[Erik Marsh]

If the climate phases or peaks have discrete starting and ending dates, you could use queries in OxCal to compare those to your archeological dates (Order, Difference, and Correlation). I would do the visual comparison first.

[Ray Kidd]

Hello Peter,

In 7 Jun 2018 on OxCal Google groups a conversation between myself and Javier Fernandez Lopez de Pablo addresses the question of how to superimpose climate data on the plot.  The attachment on that posting sets out a procedure.

I hope that is of some help.

regards

Ray Kidd

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Jun 7, 2018, 5:23:31 PM

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[Peter Stadler]

Ray, thank you very much. Where the  Solanki2004ssn.xls  is available?

Sincerely Peter   

[Ray Kidd]

Hello Peter,

I've attached the Excel file of the Solanki sunspot data and the original Word instruction.  If using the Sunspot Excel file you need to have Macros enabled.  However my intent in the original posting was the latter part of the Word document, to explain how to incorporate the GISP data etc.  The Solanki data is only my own transcription into Excel of the Solanki2004-ssn.txt file:

11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction

---------------------------------------------------------------------

                NOAA Paleoclimatology Program

                               and

         World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder

---------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: PLEASE CITE ORIGINAL REFERENCE WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!!

Best wishes

Ray

https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/oxcal/ef63949b-5f8f-41c8-9c48-89eecda41b5fn%40googlegroups.com

.

[Erik Marsh]

Thanks Ray, this is very helpful – especially since I don't think this is covered in the OxCal manual. Incidentally, for sunspot data, there is a more recent multi-proxy record by Wu et al. 2018. The data are here.
Erik

[Ray Kidd]

Hello Peter,

As Erik advised, there is a more recent Sunspot number data base from Wu et al 2018.

I have used that data to create a new Excel file Wu et al2018_ssn.xlsm.   With Macro enabled,Ctrl-S copies the data to the clipboard ready for pasting into an OxCal plot using 

Data  - New

Complete the window as follows:

 

Label:  Sunspot Number

Min -10

Max 90

Cal BC/AD Untic

Click on the window and Paste from the clipboard, the data from Solanki2004ssn.xls will be pasted.

Go to View – Plot dates or Plot selected or Plot on curve to view the overlaid Sunspot number data.

Best wishes

Ray

https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/oxcal/1132497275.1628855.1608378010461%40mail.yahoo.com

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