Fully agree that the AI numbers I put up are unlikely to be accurate but they do give an 'order of magnitude' sizing. Loxone's not a startup, they have a sizble installed base now. None of the other data points really tell us anything - speed of growth is no guarantee of success as it often brings with it lots of debt which makes a company riskier. Nor is number of employees or revenue - profitability is the one that matters.
The part of the business I have difficulty with is that they have ongoing software development costs and support costs for installed systems, but no ongoing revenue streams from those systems. Now I guess the idea is that, with no support in theory for individuals those installs should have a maintenance contract with an installer which reduces the CPD/ongoing training/number of identical queries Loxone have to deal with. Then they need to manage qualification as an installer (to get support) - to stop every private customer just registering as an installer - and a quota is the most obvious way (though not necessarily easy for small guys to maintain).
Personally I think their biggest mistake was shutting down their forums. I'm not on any others, and this one is not particularly active, but I would have thought a lot of support issues could have been handled with a decent (moderated?) forum that they could monitor and have support staff contribute to. Apple manage it. Is there an 'installer' forum discussing config solutions to problems somewhere? I know there are more active German language forums that get linked to from here occasionally.
I hate stuff on subscriptions. Loxone working standalone without needing web services was one of the attractions. But if they sold no more systems how would they keep the software updated for future Phone OS's without some sub revenue? £64 a year for the weather service?? far too much. But nothing for the rest? makes me a little uncomfortable. (but then so would 'breaking' peoples homes because a payment had failed).
They're never going to be a true retail player as their approach is hard wired. Regulations mean that in most markets a Loxone system really needs to be installed by an electrician - it's not trying to be an 'over the top' DIY retrofit solution.
In terms of hardware updates we're back to the vagaries of AI. The original loxlive (effectively gen 1) was 2010. Gen 2 started delivery in March 2020 so next gen could be another 5 years away...
incidentally - same blog says 100k installs after 10 years, 120k only a few months later so growth had accelerated a lot.
Hardware evolution is just fine for me. This is for running a home/business - it needs to be stable technology and run for many years. What do you think an updated MS would include?
I've got 'replace MS with gen 2' on my todo list but theres nothing, yet, that's required it. It would give me better Siri/Homekit/Matter integration but it looks like that's very limited and, to be honest I'm still just not sold on voice control. I just looked an I set up some Loxone iOS shortcuts that can be controlled by Siri, and our Eve blinds can be but I almost never used them - by the time you've got your phone out of your pocket to use Siri it's easier to open the app, or press the button on the wall. What I want from Matter is to have my matter devices in Loxone, not recreate some limited parts of Loxone in Homekit. I'm thinking I'll wait for gen 3 now. I'm not a huge or complex install, I'm not pushing memory limits and I'm not sure speed benefits would be noticeable.
I'm slightly puzzled by their Miniserver hardware decisions though. it's annoying they removed the analogue outs (so gen 1 - gen 2 needs an additional module for me) but at the same time It surprises me that they didn't make the Miniserver completely modular when they updated to gen 2 so all the inputs/outputs were on extensions. Even the compact keeps a couple of DI and DO.