[Democratizing China Key to World Peace]

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James J Y Hsu

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Nov 5, 2021, 1:26:31 PM11/5/21
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FYI. Here is the Op-Ed I wrote in Taipei Times:

Sebo Koh

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Nov 5, 2021, 5:13:34 PM11/5/21
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The questions of 1) can China democratize? and 2) would a democratized China give up the claim on Taiwan?  These questions had been discussed and debated in Taiwanese Independentists community since the 1970’s. The debates have quieted down in the last couple of decades, the proponents of democratizing China mostly have given up their pursuit. Let me answer the 2nd question first: a democratic country can still be highly nationalistic. Democratic and highly nationalistic China will continue to claim Taiwan as part of China. They can democratically decide that they should annex Taiwan. Secondly, democratic countries did and do interfere and even invade other countries. Democratic USA has interfered and invaded numerous countries - from Latin America to Middle East. Yes, US might be justified in some occasions but still, democracy does not guarantee use only of peaceful means to protect perceived national interests.

Taiwanese independentists who devoted their effort and resources to help the so-called Chinese Democrats who escaped from the Tianmen Square massacre were disappointed. Most of these so-called Chinese Democrats did not support Taiwan independence. They wanted China to be democratic but still insisted Taiwan is part of China. Long time ago, in an annual NATPA conference in San Diego, I was one of the discussants on the table with a Chinese democrat (forget his name) who would not agree to an independent Taiwan. 

US, for four decades of engagement with China and generously helped China to become a economic power house did not make China less repressive, instead, China under Xi has intensified control and oppression on its people. The rise of the middle class in Taiwan and Korea were the driving force of democratization. But in China, The vast middle class people believe CCP is the stabilizing force for economic advance. The CCP is their guarantor of wealth. US and EU now have realized the mistake of generous engagement with China. The most likely replacement if CCP collapsed is a nationalistic and populist strongman. Democratization of China is impossible at least in the next half century and probably never. Taiwanese should not waste their energy and resources trying to democratize China. Instead, they should put all the energy and resources into building a strong Taiwan that can deter China’s aggression. 

Sebo

On Nov 5, 2021, at 1:26 PM, James J Y Hsu <jy...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

FYI. Here is the Op-Ed I wrote in Taipei Times:


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Jerome Keating

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Nov 6, 2021, 4:20:26 AM11/6/21
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I believe that Sebo has some very good points here; I recall being at a conference in Taiwan a few years back when a person from Hong Kong was there complaining about the repression from China etc.  He got sympathy until, he then said, “Of course we are all part of one China.”  That shook a lot of people.

There are other world perspectives beyond being democratic or autocratic etc.  
Taiwanese did not fight for and gain their democracy from the KMT only to then later become part of a future “one china.”

It gets down to how we have different perspectives, weltanshauungs, and paradigms that we hold all at the same time. (Reference my book, "The Paradigms that Guide our Lives and Drive our Souls")

Democracy vs. autocracy is one; but Taiwan as independent from China is another 
And totally different one.  

Don’t think that those who want democracy in China will automatically support an independent and free Taiwan.  Too often it is quite the opposite.

Jerome



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James J Y Hsu

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Nov 6, 2021, 9:37:08 AM11/6/21
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The answer is a definitive YES to whether China can democratize. As Martin Luther King, Jr said: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” All the people deserve justice without exception to Chinese people or otherwise. While the Bill of Rights transformed the Kingdom of England to the Constitutional monarchy in 1688, Taiwan held its first direct presidential election in 1996. The time could be right for China to become democratic in the foreseeable future.

Wei Jingsheng (魏京生) was the pro-democracy Chinese who was invited together with Sebo to the year 2000 NATPA annual meeting held in San Diego when Professor Mao Lin (林茂修) was President of NATPA. I was then the Southern Cal Chapter President and a member of the planning committee for the annual meeting. Professor Raymond Lee (李瑞木) proposed to invite Wei, who was unanimously approved at the planning committee. While it is true that Wei opposed Taiwan Independence, it can only be regarded as his personal opinion. Many pro-democracy broadcasters in the internet nowadays support Taiwan government and applaud President Tsai ’s tough stand against Xi on protecting Taiwan’s democracy and independence. They are proud of Taiwan being the only democratic government with the Chinese culture background.  Moreover, Chinese people in the pro-democracy movement like Cia Xia (蔡霞) recognized that the power transfer by head chopping (砍人頭) in CCP is unsustainable, and head counting (數人頭) of a democracy like what in Taiwan is urgently needed. While I agree with Sebo and Jerome that nobody can guarantee a pro-democracy Chinese will support Taiwan independence, I do believe that a true believer in democracy will not stop other people from seeking independence since they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. 

The alternative to a democratic Chinese government is many-orders-of-magnitude more horrible, just considering the possibility of launching a nuclear missile by a mad dictator. Only check-and-balance and separation-of-power can gain the collective wisdom to stop a stupid war. 

We should not shut the door on helping democratic movement in China. Lending a helping hand to Hong Kong pro-democracy movement, for example, is what a good neighbor should do. And when the time comes, a single spark can start a prairie fire (星星之火可以燎原). 

Opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared.


Shin Liu

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Nov 6, 2021, 12:08:01 PM11/6/21
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Dear All :

I have sent this to the forum in July.  I think this is still relevent.

Regards,

Shin


United States of China – Taiwan Shall Not Play Roles in It


by Shin Ta Liu

As witnessed by recent events in China the grasp of the CCP in Chinese internal affairs cannot last long. Even regular Chinese in China witness the irresponsibility of the party in governing China. All Chinese people except the ruling class are suffering under CCP’s governing and all are in the name of fulfilling CCP,s dream and ambitions.



One possible outcome of the collapse of CCP in China is to form the United States of China as Miles Guo proposed. I don’t want to discuss how China will evolve after CCP, but how Taiwan shall deal with the collapse of CCP.

The followings are reasons Taiwan shall not play any part directly in China Affairs.

 

1.     It’s China’s internal affair, Taiwan shall not meddle with a “foreign” country like China.

2. It takes a lot of learning for China to become a normal country. In the event that CCP collapse overnight like the Soviet Union Communists been banned suddenly, which led to the disintegration of the Soviet Unions. China may end up just like the Soviet Union. A chaotic period is unavoidable lest said to form a coherent union of States. The Chinese were educated that a “unified” State of China is the most important mission which is weighted above the value of Democracy and Freedom. Democracy and Freedom are “foreign” experiences for most Chinese, not until some of them have the opportunity to experience it when they emigrated. It’s Chinese’s Woke to educate Chinese how to behave as a normal citizen of the world, not Taiwanese’s responsibility to do so as mentioned in 1.

3. Some remnants of old KMT will interpret this as a very good opportunity to reunify China to fulfill their dream of unified China under KMT. Taiwan as a modern country shall not pay the price to fulfill KMT’s old dream.

4. A small country is much easier to govern and change direction than a large country (see link in note 1).



I am sure the Taiwanese has more reasons not to involve with the United Stated of China affairs.

Note 1; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vV4BtJWmdU

 


Frank S T Hsiao

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Nov 6, 2021, 1:29:06 PM11/6/21
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Hi, this may be a different topic.

 

The historical experience of the Falkland is similar to Taiwan. But Argentina wants it, people in the island want to be British. Can Taiwan learn from their history?

Falkland Islands sovereignty dispute-Wikipedia

Sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (Spanish: Islas Malvinas) is disputed by Argentina and the United Kingdom

Frank Hsiao

Kenneth Wang

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Nov 6, 2021, 10:59:16 PM11/6/21
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Yes, we should help any Chinese democratic movement, but I am not optimistic. 
I feel sorry for those outside encouragements to Hong Kong pro-democracy movements. We can only watch when they are helplessly put into prisons or murdered by Chinese communists. 
Hitler and Nazis were able to brainwash most Germans and totally controlled the country. Hitler conquered most of Europe.  Only after American’s participation, the Hitler’s regime could be brought down. Could you hope for peace with Hitler?
Xi Jinping has the total control of China. Computers can listen to all phone conversations and read all emails. When CCP finds a dissident, they can record all people coming to see him and whom he goes to visit. Then, round up all of them. Look how cruel Xi has treated his own officials, just due to some minor suspicions.
Any democratic movement inside China  can be quickly stamped out. 
Xi is the “Eastern Hitler”. This is a terminology that western people can easily understand the real threat of China. 
“Defeat American Imperialism 打倒美國帝國主義” is Mao’s conviction and has been continually carried on through generations of Chinese communists. Xi has built China to “漢唐盛世” and can fulfill such a dream. Why will he stop?

Ken 
On Nov 6, 2021, at 3:44 PM, James J Y Hsu <jy...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:



Sebo koh

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Nov 7, 2021, 12:04:20 AM11/7/21
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Attached below is an essay “Can China Democratize?” by Dr. Benjamin Herscovitch, a Beijing-based Research Fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies. The prospect of democratizing China is slim to none. Instead of changing its governance toward liberal democracy, China is exporting its Leninistic governance style to the world, starting with HongKong. Taiwan has many domestic, international and defense issues to improve, I don’t think we can afford nor need to spend resources helping China to democratize. 

Sebo

file:///var/mobile/Containers/Data/Application/B095D93F-C7F4-4730-B65D-D2174F20D9A6/Library/Caches/com.evernote.cache/4527330/e6cc9b96-2d2c-43ca-b9b9-f453653a9628/share/30-1-14-herscovitch-.pdf
30-1-14-herscovitch-.pdf

James J Y Hsu

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Nov 8, 2021, 9:37:55 AM11/8/21
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In my original writing, I suggested China may democratize at three scenarios :
  1. A great depression - high unemployment, high inflation, depleted foreign currency reserve - took place.
  2. The COVID-19 origin was traced to the Wuhan Lab research.
  3. Nationwide civil rebellion due to corrupted and repressive officials.
Xi’s regime is on a very shaky ground with the economy going south, the hostile international relations, and the intensive power struggle complete with assassinations. He has managed to offend almost everyone else on earth. In my opinion. his regime will not survive beyond 2022.

Here is a good analysis explaining Xi’s inner thoughts and desire:

Shin Liu

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Nov 8, 2021, 11:53:31 AM11/8/21
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Dear All :

Best describes Xi (習近平）is from 袁紅兵。He said Xi is the brain damaged Mao (腦殘的毛澤東）； has his ambition but not Mao,s talents.
This is from his personal experience as the drinking body with Xi when Xi was serving in 福建。

Shin


On Mon, Nov 8, 2021 at 6:37 AM, James J Y Hsu

Frank S T Hsiao

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Nov 8, 2021, 2:28:15 PM11/8/21
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James has an interesting idea.

Here are my comments for his three scenarios.

See my capital letters below.

 

From: natpa...@googlegroups.com <natpa...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of James J Y Hsu
Sent: Monday, November 8, 2021 7:38 AM
To: natpa...@googlegroups.com; I Love Taiwan <i_love...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [iLoveTW] [NATPA Forum] [Democratizing China Key to World Peace]

 

In my original writing, I suggested China may democratize at three scenarios :

  1. A great depression - high unemployment, NOT LIKELY, SO FAR CHINESE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ARE CONTINUE INCREASING, AND ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEPEND ON CHINA’S HUGE MARKET AND RESOURCES. high inflation, NOT LIKELY UNDER STRONG CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT depleted foreign currency reserve took place. – IT MIGHT BE TOO BIG TO DEPLETE.
  2. The COVID-19 origin was traced to the Wuhan Lab research. NOT CLEAR. BUT MOST UNLIKELY
  3. Nationwide civil rebellion due to corrupted and repressive officials. THESE ARE TRADITIONALLY THE CAUSES OF REGIME/DYNASTY CHANGE IN CHINA.
    BUT SO FAR WE CAN SEE, MOST CHINESE ARE SOLIDIFIED UNDER XI AS THE PER CAPITA GDP IS INCREASING DOMESTICALLY AND XI CHINA’S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC POSITION IN THE WORLD IS INCREASING EXTERNALLY. THIS IS THE SAME SITUATION EXPERIENCED IN GERMANY AND JAPAN BEFORE THE WWII. IT APPEARS THAT THE CHINESE IN GENERAL ARE ENJOYING UNPRECEDENTED GOOD LIFE HISTORICALLY AND THE SENSE OF STRONG CHINA IN THE WORLD, ESPECIALLY, XI DARED TO CHALLENGE THE WORLD POWER LIKE THE USA!

 

Xi’s regime is on a very shaky ground with the economy going south, SOUTH OF WHAT? the hostile international relations SO WERE THE DAYS OF HITLER AND TOJO, and the intensive power struggle complete with assassinations. SO WAS THE DAYS OF STALIN, HITLER AND JOJOHe has managed to offend almost everyone else on earth. In my opinion. his regime will not survive beyond 2022. THAT IS TOO OPTIMISTIC. ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THESE IS THAT XI IS CONSOLIDATING HIS POWER, LIKE STALIN, HITLER AND TOJO, AND IT MAY NOT LEAD TO SELF DESTRUCTION.

        SO, HOW CAN XI’S CHINA BE COLLAPSED? EXTERNALLY, ONE OBVIOUS CASE IS CHINA IS DEFEATED IN THE WWIII. EXCEPT THE WAR, CAN INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION HELP? REMEMBER THE “ABCD ENCIRCLEMENT” OF JAPAN JUST BEFORE THE WAR? IT ONLY ACCELERATED THE JAPAN’S PREPARATION OF THE WAR! DESPITE DECADES OF ECONOMIC SANCTION OF IRAN AND CUBA, THEY ARE STILL SURVIVING TODAY.

            THERE ARE SEVERAL THEORIES OF HOW A CIVIL STRIFE CAN OCCUR OR HOW A COUNTRY DECLINES. IN A PREVIOUS PAPER, I WROTE “ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL BACKGROUNDS OF THE 228 INCIDENT IN TAIWAN—AN APPLICATION OF SOCIAL EXPECTATION THEORY.”

THE SOCIAL EXPECTATION THEORY MAY BE APPLIED TO CHINA IN A DIFFERENT CONTEXT. WHEN THE CHINESE GDP PER CAPITA AND THE EDUCATIONAL LEVEL INCREASE TO A CERTAIN DEGREE, CHINESE PEOPLE WILL ASSERT MORE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL POWER, THEY WANT TO HAVE A SAY IN THE GOVERNMENT, AND WANT AN ELECTED GOVERNMENT. CIVIL DISCONTENTS WILL INCREASE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CHINESE PEOPLE WILL MOBILIZE RESOURCES (RESOURCE MOBILIZATION THEORY), LIKE SPECIFIC CLASS OR PARTY, TO FIGHT THE XI GOVERNMENT. THE “SPECIFIC CLASS” HERE MIGHT BE LARGE BUSINESS CLASSES OR FALUNG GONG RELIGIOUS SECT. THAT WHY THE CCP ARE CRACKING DOWN THE LARGE BUSINESSES AND TRYING TO DESTROY RELIGIOUS GROUP.

WELL, MORE CAN BE SAID.  MY TWO CENTS.

FRANK

THERE ARE VAST LITERATURE ON HOW A CIVIL STRIFE ERUPT AND HOW A COUNTRY RISE AND DECLINE.

James J Y Hsu

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Nov 9, 2021, 9:27:59 AM11/9/21
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Frank’s points are well taken. Perhaps all three scenarios I suggested will not materialize and Xi will be emperor for life in 2022. Consequently, he will carry out his promise to invade Taiwan that naturally leads to WWIII. After being defeated in WWIII, China will then become democratic. 

However, that would defeat the purpose of democratizing China to avoid war and casualties in Taiwan in the first place, which was the suggestion of my OpEd. After all, as Sun Tzu pointed out in the Art of War: “Those who are victorious in all battles are not the best of the best warriors; Those who defeat the enemies without a fight are the best of the best warriors.” (百戰百勝者，非善之善者也。不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也。) 

An autocratic communist party to run free-market capitalist economy is a mismatch at best, and dire at worst. Therefore, an economic disaster may provide a pathway to democracy. China cannot be immune to recession. Otherwise, democracy and freedom will be unnecessary. Housing activities account for 29% of China’s GDP. The housing bubble is quite serious and may burst anytime soon, as I understand it. If Tiananmen Incident and Hong Kong pro-democracy movement is any indication, the nationwide civil rebellion may be just around the corner. As Frank described, improved living standards may provide another incentive for people to demand political right. In any case, hopefully there will be spark somewhere to start a prairie fire, and that is to happen soon enough.

Australia might have known something about the COVID-19 origin and requested a thorough investigation. As a result, China cut off imports of wine, lobster, coal, meat from Australia. While the U. S. Intelligence is inconclusive on this matter, I have a hunch that the message cannot be out yet as the messenger, most likely  孫力軍, is being retained by the Chinese authority.

A fundamental physics principle is the internal force does no work on a rigid body. Therefore, the international effort has to be united and focused onto this serious strategic consideration, and perhaps that will increase the social expectation to make China democratize at a lower threshold and make it happen before it is too late. 


On Nov 8, 2021, at 11:28 AM, Frank S T Hsiao <frank...@colorado.edu> wrote:

James has an interesting idea.
Here are my comments for his three scenarios.
See my capital letters below.
 
From: natpa...@googlegroups.com<natpa...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of James J Y Hsu
Sent: Monday, November 8, 2021 7:38 AM
To: natpa...@googlegroups.com; I Love Taiwan <i_love...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [iLoveTW] [NATPA Forum] [Democratizing China Key to World Peace]
 
In my original writing, I suggested China may democratize at three scenarios :
  1. A great depression - high unemployment, NOT LIKELY, SO FAR CHINESE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ARE CONTINUE INCREASING, AND ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEPEND ON CHINA’S HUGE MARKET AND RESOURCES. high inflation, NOT LIKELY UNDER STRONG CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT depleted foreign currency reserve took place. –IT MIGHT BE TOO BIG TO DEPLETE.
  1. The COVID-19 origin was traced to the Wuhan Lab research.NOT CLEAR. BUT MOST UNLIKELY
  1. Nationwide civil rebellion due to corrupted and repressive officials. THESE ARE TRADITIONALLY THE CAUSES OF REGIME/DYNASTY CHANGE IN CHINA. 
    BUT SO FAR WE CAN SEE, MOST CHINESE ARE SOLIDIFIED UNDER XI AS THE PER CAPITA GDP IS INCREASING DOMESTICALLY AND XI CHINA’S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC POSITION IN THE WORLD IS INCREASING EXTERNALLY. THIS IS THE SAME SITUATION EXPERIENCED IN GERMANY AND JAPAN BEFORE THE WWII. IT APPEARS THAT THE CHINESE IN GENERAL ARE ENJOYING UNPRECEDENTED GOOD LIFE HISTORICALLY AND THE SENSE OF STRONG CHINA IN THE WORLD, ESPECIALLY, XI DARED TO CHALLENGE THE WORLD POWER LIKE THE USA!
     
    Xi’s regime is on a very shaky ground with the economy going south,SOUTH OF WHAT? the hostile international relations SO WERE THE DAYS OF HITLER AND TOJO, and the intensive power struggle complete with assassinations. SO WAS THE DAYS OF STALIN, HITLER AND JOJOHe has managed to offend almost everyone else on earth. In my opinion. his regime will not survive beyond 2022.THAT IS TOO OPTIMISTIC. ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THESE IS THAT XI IS CONSOLIDATING HIS POWER, LIKE STALIN, HITLER AND TOJO, AND IT MAY NOT LEAD TO SELF DESTRUCTION.
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    Sebo koh

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    Nov 9, 2021, 9:39:21 PM11/9/21
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    After four decades of engagements with China, Western world thought that a prosperous middle class in China would demand more say in the governance of the country and more personal freedom. Well, it just didn’t happen. Instead, CCP has steadily tightened its control of its people. The prosperous middle class in China support the CCP regime. They believe it was the CCP who brought them to prosperity and CCP is their protector of their wealth, and CCP is the stabilizing force for the country. Prosperity promote democracy does not apply to China. If CCP feels threatened by loosing domestic support, in a recession for instance, it will strike out against Taiwan, or taking Senkakus Islands, or even attack US ships or bases. The highly nationalistic Chinese people will galvanize around CCP. If CCP collapsed, most likely outcome will be a nationalistic populist strongman, grow out of the chaos, who will become the next dictator.  A democracy can be strongly nationalistic. A democracy can democratically decide to annex Taiwan. 

    Former Sec of Defense Rumsfeld, in his farewell speech, said: “weakness is provocative”. To keep Taiwan safe we must concentrate in building up strong  defense to deter China attacking Taiwan. 

    Sebo

    Sent from my iPad

    On Nov 9, 2021, at 9:28 AM, James J Y Hsu <jy...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

    
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