Fwd: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business

[Ron Baiman]

Dear Colleagues, 

Link to actuaries report on underestimated risk from climate change, presented at recent 2/4/2024 MEER Talk.

Thank you Barbara!

Best,

Ron

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Barbara Sneath <bjsn...@meer.org>
Date: Mon, Feb 5, 2024 at 10:10 PM
Subject: Re: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business
To: Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>

This is the report of folk are interested.  Underestimated financial risks from climate change. 

https://actuaries.org.uk/emperors-new-climate-scenarios

On Mon, Feb 5, 2024 at 11:08 PM Barbara Sneath <bjsn...@meer.org> wrote:

No worries.  It was my fault because I should have sent it earlier.  There were about 40 people on the call and the video recording will be available in a week or so.  

Barbara 

On Mon, Feb 5, 2024 at 9:08 PM Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com> wrote:

Sorry I missed this Barbara!

On Sun, Feb 4, 2024 at 10:01 AM Barbara Sneath <bjsn...@meer.org> wrote:

Hi Ron,

Would you mind reminding HPAC etc. folk about this MEERTALK at 2 pm EST today. 

Best wishes,

Barbara 

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From: UK Divest <nor...@event.eventbrite.com>
Date: Sat, Feb 3, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Subject: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business
To: <bjsn...@meer.org>

Your event, The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business is happening soon. How to join This event will be hosted online. Log in and check the event page for instructions to join. View the event Monday, 5 February 2024 from 19:00 to 20:30 (GMT) Add to my calendar: Google · Outlook · iCal · Yahoo Online Event Create your own event Anyone can sell tickets or manage registration with Eventbrite. Learn more Discover great events Find local events that match your passions. See events Eventbrite for mobile Easily pull up event details and discover upcoming events on the go. Download Questions about the event? Contact the organiser This email was sent to bjsn...@meer.org Eventbrite | 535 Mission Street, 8th Floor | San Francisco, CA 94105 Copyright © 2024 Eventbrite. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy

[robert...@gmail.com]

Following my theme of seeing the funny side in all this, you have to laugh at the fact that this report doesn't mention cooling at all and only has one passing reference to geoengineering.  Its three stage action plan is 'to estimate how GHGs emissions will change in the future', then to assess 'how much warming will be driven by a certain level of GHGs and how quickly this warming will happen', and finally 'to estimate how much damage these physical risks will inflict'.

Can someone please explain to me why actuaries, with the invaluable help of Tim Lenton (who as far as I'm is not an actuary) have zero interest in anything that might reduce the damage?  One obvious answer to that question is that they agree with me, that we haven't got the communal wit to do so, so we'd best plan for it to be as bad as it could be!

Regards

Robert

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[Hugh Hunt]

Robert,

I worry that the likes of Tim Lenton have leverage.  Archimedes would be likewise distressed.

Hugh

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Sent: Tuesday, February 6, 2024 7:04 PM
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Subject: Re: [HPAC] Fwd: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business

 

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[Clive Elsworth]

Robert

 

> explain to me why actuaries, with the invaluable help of Tim Lenton have zero interest in anything that might reduce the damage? 

 

Remember what Bru Pearce said: “Follow the money”. Academics who advocate geoengineering get hounded out of office, as Prof Stephen Salter will attest. It doesn’t matter if it’s only to brighten some marine clouds (as ships were doing pre-SO2 regulation). It’s taboo and dangerous.

 

So, the actuaries are presumably unaware of what could be possible. So, someone needs to tell them..?

 

About two years ago I suggested a presentation to be named “Climate Solutions with Legs.. and Clothes” but people were mystified. Maybe now’s the time.

 

Clive

 

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of robert...@gmail.com

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[robert...@gmail.com]

I've now had a chance to scan through this report and I must say, notwithstanding its abject failure on cooling, it is one of the best summaries of the current status of climate science that I've seen.  They use sources such as Keen to challenge the economics orthodoxy and recognise that ECS needs to be replaced by ESS if we are to get a complete picture of warming.  It discusses the uncertainty around climate response time and generally paints a pretty bleak picture.  I particularly like the graph below.

It seeks to u=illustrate the pathway towards a 100% collapse of global GDP assuming a simple logistics curve and alternative assumptions as to the temperature at which damages amount to 100% of GDP.  The scary bit is the light blue line that represents the quadratic functions currently used by most economic models.

The report is well worth reading.  And then ask again, why no mention of cooling!

Regards

Robert

[John Nissen]

Hi Robert,

Brilliant diagram to explain that letting global warming continue unchecked, even if net zero could be reached by 2050, is an existential risk as 100% GDP is approached, purely from an economic point of view.

We have to get over the taboo which Clive described:

Remember what Bru Pearce said: “Follow the money”. Academics who advocate geoengineering get hounded out of office, as Prof Stephen Salter will attest. It doesn’t matter if it’s only to brighten some marine clouds (as ships were doing pre-SO2 regulation). It’s taboo and dangerous.

I have described the ERA* movement as like a religion, with certain climate gurus taking the role of high priests (and some, like Tim Lenton, trying to, Hugh).  These gurus, like Bob Watson (a very decent bloke, I have to say) have pledged that SRM will not be necessary.  Indeed I heard myself Bob say to an assembled audience of scientists at an AGU conference, when asked about geoengineering, that it wasn't even Plan Z, let alone Plan B.  Needless to say this was greeted with cheers.

These high priests want to retain their power, which rests on the perceived success of the ERA strategy, now refined to become the Net Zero strategy.  This I think is fundamental to the taboo which we see everywhere.  The high priests are happy to hint about SRM being high risk, when there's no evidence.  (And the fossil fuel industry is happy to have the SRM taboo, because they are still trying to promote the idea that climate change is not a serious threat.)

So we need to demonstrate to influential people (preferably with even greater leverage on power than the IPCC and its accepted gurus) that the ERA strategy has failed; and without SRM, the world could be facing an existential risk, as several key tipping elements have already been activated.  The announcement of 1.5C in 2023 is our chance.  We need to explain that refreezing the Arctic should be the top priority.  And we need to reassure them that refreezing the Arctic currently looks to be feasible, at least with sub-polar SAI.  But time is running out.  Nobody should want to risk passing a point of no return with SRM applied too late to save the day.

I would like to think that "Building a bridge to a better future" would be a rallying cry, especially for young people.  But I suspect that the carrot is weaker than the stick.

Cheers, John

*ERA - emissions reduction alone strategy.

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