HPAC Forum this week: Ocean Pasture Restoration with Russ George

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Please join the Healthy Planet Action Coalition this Thursday, 2 October at 5.30 pm Eastern Time, for a conversation with Russ George on Ocean Pasture Restoration.

 

Link is https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1 (passcode 662519). 

 

The meeting will go for up to 90 minutes.  Thursday 5.30 pm Eastern = 10.30pm UK = 7.30 am Friday Australia AEST

 

In 2012, Russ George worked with the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation in British Columbia to add iron to the waters of the North Pacific Ocean at the point where salmon fingerlings most needed food. The project encountered criticism from scientific and environmental organisations and media. 

 

Russ will share his perspective on the science and politics of ocean replenishment and restoration and its potential role in climate cooling and fisheries enhancement. His presentation will be followed by open discussion.  Russ’s website is https://russgeorge.net/

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Please join.

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

Here are temporary raw video, audio, chat and transcript files available for download from the HPAC discussion yesterday with Russ George.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/44awdnzek75svpky816rp/AIWeIojtzr9EgH_1x4X0Iio?rlkey=5yqgxq5ml7nbuqmowfisyhay2&st=lz159ibw&dl=0

 

Lucinda, please edit for upload to HPAC website.

 

There are many memorable comments in this discussion and it is well worth a listen and share, once edited.  A superb conversation between Russ and HPAC members about iron and the ocean.

 

Dennis Garrity also spoke about the upcoming HPAC Online Conference - Preventing Two Degrees. Put the dates in your calendar if you can - October 15 and 16 for 2.5 hours from 8:30 am Eastern Daylight Time.  Registration and information at https://www.preventing2degrees.org/

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

 

 

From: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>
Sent: Friday, 3 October 2025 1:39 AM
To: 'healthy-planet-action-coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Cc: 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Peter Fiekowsky' <pfi...@gmail.com>; 'Chris Vivian' <chris....@btinternet.com>; 'Alex Carlin' <pyn...@hotmail.com>; 'Brad Ack' <brad...@oceanclimatetrust.org>
Subject: Russ George HPAC Forum tonight: Ocean Pasture Restoration

 

Please join.

 

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of rob...@rtulip.net
Sent: Tuesday, 30 September 2025 12:11 AM
To: 'healthy-planet-action-coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [HPAC] HPAC Forum this week: Ocean Pasture Restoration with Russ George

 

Please join the Healthy Planet Action Coalition this Thursday, 2 October at 5.30 pm Eastern Time, for a conversation with Russ George on Ocean Pasture Restoration.

--

[Tom Goreau]

Thanks, I logged on but was called away, and am eager to hear the link. However it says:

Link temporarily disabled

This can happen when the link has been shared or downloaded too many times in a day.

Check back later and we’ll open access to more people.

 

 

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

Unedited video is here https://youtu.be/f33wI4kNT0c

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/BY3PR13MB49943F50C21188EA872578A3DDE4A%40BY3PR13MB4994.namprd13.prod.outlook.com.

[Tom Goreau]

Thanks, Robert, I’ve now had a chance to listen to Russ George’s talk.

 

Only one comment, the claim that glassy volcanic ash from explosions is completely insoluble is the opposite of the facts.

 

Glass is metastable, and dissolves much more rapidly than crystalline minerals both because of higher surface area and because thermodynamic instability promotes rapid dissolution.

 

For example glassy amorphous silica from diatom oozes is used on soils because it dissolves around 10 times faster than silica in quartz.

 

The same is true of the finely divided amorphous metastable iron minerals.

 

In fact it is very easy to grow very fine amorphous iron in both oxidized and reduced form in the ocean, but the question is if the other essential elements are present in the necessary ratios.

 

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edit/10.1201/b14314/innovative-methods-marine-ecosystem-restoration-robert-kent-trench-thomas-goreau

 

On the Nature of Things: The Scientific Photography of Fritz Goro

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

 

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

 

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

[Tom Goreau]

This is precisely why fine glassy volcanic ash from Kamchatka eruptions affects productivity in the Bering Sea and northern Pacific more than crystalline wind blown dust from the Gobi desert.

 

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/BY3PR13MB49945B99CC81F15575C5E7BCDDE2A%40BY3PR13MB4994.namprd13.prod.outlook.com.

[Garrity, Dennis]

Please join our next Healthy Planet Action Coalition meeting this Thursday,  October 16^th at 5.30 pm Eastern Time, for a Town Hall conversation on the just-concluded HPAC online conference on The Global Heating Emergency. Preventing 2 degrees by 2040: What’s the Plan?

 

We’ll be discussing how to build on the conference toward the next phase of action to intensify our impact on the global stage.

[rob de laet]

Hello everybody, 

Congratulations on pulling off such an amazing conference and I think this will have a ripple effect into this world. In a crisis of this magnitude we need all the tools at our disposal to cool the climate. I am not involved enough to judge the different SRM techniques that have been proposed, but I like to repeat that according to our calculations natural SRM by increasing cloud cover through restoring the rainforests can have a considerable effect. If the Amazon rainforest were fully restored, the resulting increase in low cloud cover could boost regional albedo enough to reduce the planet’s energy imbalance by up to ~0.15 W/m², cutting today’s global heating rate by around 10%. This is apart from surface cooling through increased evapotranspiration and latent heat radiation out into space at condensation at cloud level. The Amazon is about 40% of remaining rainforests, all together, the restoration of tropical rainforests can have a crucial cooling impact. 

The 2023 drought over the Congo and Amazon and adjacent ocean areas give evidence of these huge impacts.

Hope this helps as part of the total solution, 

Kind regards, 

Rob de Laet 

Project Lead Cooling the Climate

Member of the EcoRestoration Alliance

Fellow of Global Evergreening Alliance

Fellow fo the Schumacher Institute

Co-founder of Senang Eco Services

WhatsApp: +55 71 992617846

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

The recording of this follow up meeting is available from me but will not be published on the website.  Please let me know if you would like a copy.

 

Congratulations Dennis and team for achieving such a successful milestone conference.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Garrity, Dennis

Sent: Friday, 17 October 2025 3:40 AM
To: 'healthy-planet-action-coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

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[Ron Baiman]

(Cross thread post) Followup to our discussion last night (for more extensive discussion see the Oct 8, 2025 "How Climate Intervention can Safely and Quickly Cool the Planet_HPAC NYC Climate Week_Sep. 26, 2025" HPAC thread):

Dear Colleagues,

Good discussion to which of course I can't help but add a few points!

First, I sympathize with Alan's concern over excessively absolute standards for governance before deployment in light of the risk-risk tradeoff that we are facing. My thinking is that,  per the governance discussion in the "challenges and opportunity" section  of the HPAC cooling paper (see: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/4/1/kgae014/7731760 ), in a situation where not deploying global cooling asap will without a doubt lead to greater warming and longer overshoot and thus greater calamity for humans and other living species, as in war war-time decision making, we need to have a more evolutionary symbiotic view of the relationship between governance and deployment (and governance and field testing) that specifically challenges the now dominant position stressing multiple absolute hurdles of social acceptance and governance that must be in place before piloting SAI or indeed even doing small-scale outdoor experiments with this in mind. Here's a powerpoint summarizing this view (that is in our paper) that I presented at an HPAC meeting some time ago: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mQed7U89TEjOWi31rTGwaubg0vpk-SzK/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true 

See also slide 9 of this (slightly updated - in red) powerpoint for my presentation of the Abstract that I, Mike and Greg submitted on behalf of the UR WG to SAI workshop: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1bNkZVjYBBS1ljhcY7RFVdnsikmjmCWw9/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true

Second, relevant to this (and a point that I've been trying to convey in various fora) is Mike's recent observation (I think I'm correctly describing his thinking on this - and cc'ing him just in case!)  that as we know that SAI works (volcanoes have been doing it through geological history) and given the urgent need to cool, our focus should now be on "engineering optimization" that can only really only be done through piloting and real in-situ experimentation to reduce and (hopefully) work around known known possible adverse side effects (from modeling none are catastrophic) and possible unknown (from modeling) adverse impacts, and expand benefits as much as possible. This view I think makes clear that, though more research is always better, the priority now needs to be practical deployment focused testing and gradual scaling. 

Third, I am also sympathetic to Alan's reasoning with regard to China that (in a much more thought out and careful way) expands on discussions that I have had with regard to a geopolitical self-interest based SAI deployment that might be initiated by a political leadership with longer time horizons than are typical in a democracy. In this sense the issue is not only whether we can cool quickly but also whether the very hard fought and difficult to sustain accomplishment of democratic constitutional governance can survive this particular leadership and capacity test as it did the fight against facism.  

Finally, Herb and I have long disagreed over what can be considered (if anything) HPAC's official "mission statement". My reading is that HPAC now has in fact multiple different mission statements produced at different points in time for different purposes that broadly agree on promoting (differently nuanced versions) of the climate Triad as our core mission. 

Best,

Ron

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Healthy Planet Action Coalition

YouTube Channel

@HPACoalition  (Bluesky and Twitter/X)

 Addressing the Urgent Need for Direct Climate Cooling: Rationale and Options

Baiman et al. 2024. Oxford Open Climate Change

An Open Letter to the IMO Supporting Maritime Transport that Cools the Atmosphere While Preserving Air Quality Benefits. Baiman et al. 2024. Oxford Open Climate Change

[Garrity, Dennis]

Please join our next Healthy Planet Action Coalition meeting this Thursday,  October 30^th at 5.30 pm Eastern Time.

 

The link is https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1 (passcode 662519). 

 

Bruce Parker will present an in-depth review of the data and assumptions behind his recent talk, “The Impact of CO2 Emission Mitigation and Removal Strategies,” delivered at HPAC’s “The Global Heating Emergency” conference earlier this month.

 

He has developed a practical formula that anyone can use to forecast the expected rise in global temperature over the next few decades. It is based primarily on projected CO2 emissions and anticipated changes in the Earth’s albedo.

 

He will also demonstrate that carbon dioxide removal efforts are likely to have only a negligible effect on the projected 2040 temperature increase.

 

From: Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@cifor-icraf.org>
Date: Friday, October 17, 2025 at 12:40 

AM

[rob de laet]

Hi Bruce and Dennis, 

thank you for this announcement. I think we are all aware  ''that carbon dioxide removal efforts are likely to have only a negligible effect on the projected 2040 temperature increase.'' The world will not change its mind on this subject fast, so we can use carbon money to finance more effective solutions that sequester carbon as a bonus. Will we spend time on solutions, such as the invigoration of the atmospheric watercycles by strategically restoring the biosphere such as I propose? 

Thank you, 

Rob de Laet 

Project Lead Cooling the Climate

Member of the EcoRestoration Alliance

Fellow of Global Evergreening Alliance

Fellow fo the Schumacher Institute

Planetary Solvency Taskforce

Co-founder of Senang Eco Services

WhatsApp: +55 71 992617846

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.

[Garrity, Dennis]

Reminding you to join us for our session today.

[Ron Baiman]

Dear all,

Regrettably I’m going to have to leave meeting (at least for awhile)!

Best,

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Oct 30, 2025, at 9:32 AM, 'Garrity, Dennis' via HPAC Steering Circle <hpac-steer...@googlegroups.com> wrote:



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[rob...@rtulip.net]

Here is a temporary recording of today’s HPAC meeting with Bruce Parker assessing potential heat impacts of carbon action. 

 

This is an excellent discussion, quantifying estimated temperature effect of carbon emission and removal strategies over coming decades, and comparing to action on albedo.

 

The message I took from this analysis was that nothing we do about carbon can affect climate in the next decade, and the main policy focus has to switch to sunlight reflection to minimise the major disruption of the coming Earth fever.  Of course carbon action remains vital, but its short term benefits are more in economics and environment, not climate.

 

Lucinda and Ron, please upload to HPAC website.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/bnjaztjmybcbrhdbk0fii/AH7QbplAepVbREAPvoTDfF0?rlkey=jy4ewm9n81rq73z7qyqpii65i&st=ti79o0yr&dl=0

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

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[Rebecca personal em]

Hello all,

Thanks for a very valuable meeting today, and I am happy to work on the slides with you Bruce when you add a narrative.

The main policy conclusion I get is that we need to communicate “net zero is not enough and there are options to cool which can reverse and prevent 2 degrees”.  that’s the first step and then we have this detailed analysis up our sleeves.

Warmly to all,

Rebecca 

On 31 Oct 2025, at 10:38 am, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:



To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/024501dc49f6%2436ebae70%24a4c30b50%24%40rtulip.net.

[Garrity, Dennis]

Please join us for our next Healthy Planet Action Coalition members meeting this Thursday,  November 13th at 5.30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

 

The link is https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1 (passcode 662519). 

 

Paul Gambill will be joining us to discuss his work on educating the public to understand that sunlight reflection methods will be needed in addition to emissions reductions and greenhouse gas removals to address the global heating emergency.

Paul co-founded Nori, the first carbon removal marketplace, and served as CEO from 2017–2023. An early pioneer in carbon removal, he helped establish it as a distinct industry category and led Nori to sell the world’s first soil carbon removal credits. After a decade building financial infrastructure for scaling carbon removal, Paul now writes at Inevitable & Obvious Substack about the hard lessons learned in carbon removal and why cooling interventions are essential for buying time while carbon removal reaches the scale climate science demands.

Paul will be discussing with us the new initiatives that he is developing to mobilize more support for comprehensive approaches to global heating.

[Garrity, Dennis]

Our CDR30 hashtag#VirtualPavilion is here, bringing world-class climate expertise to your screen throughout COP30!

This Wednesday, November 12 (10:30 AM Belém time / 8.30 am EST / 1.30 pm GMT), we're convening the world's leading climate scientists, policymakers, and experts for a critical 2.5-hour virtual session at CDR30 - The Global Heating Emergency: What's the Plan?

With temperatures accelerating beyond projections and current strategies falling short, this session confronts the hard questions:

🌡️ Why is global heating accelerating faster than ever before?
 ⚠️ What happens to humanity and ecosystems if we don't act now?
 🔄 How can carbon dioxide removal help us avoid catastrophic warming?
 ✅ What immediate, practical steps can build a new integrated climate plan?

This session confronts the crisis with science, solutions, and a call to coordinated action.

→ Be part of the conversation. Register for the webinar event here: https://lnkd.in/dBDKxcMZ

Hosted by Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)'s own Dennis Garrity, Aria McKenna; and experts from around the globe James Hansen (Columbia University), David Spratt (Breakthrough: National Centre for Climate Restoration), Brian Von Herzen, Ph.D. (Climate Foundation) , Paul Gambill, Leon Simons, Starry Sprenkle-Hyppolite, Ph.D. (Conservation International).

 

From: Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@cifor-icraf.org>
Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025 at 7:57 AM
To: 'healthy-planet-action-coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

[Garrity, Dennis]

Please join us for our next Healthy Planet Action Coalition members meeting on Thursday, November 13th at 5.30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Is anyone attending this?

 

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1

passcode 662519

 

From: 'Garrity, Dennis' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

Sent: Friday, 14 November 2025 2:36 AM
To: 'healthy-planet-action-coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

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[Garrity, Dennis]

Hi robert, The meeting starts at 5.30 pm EST / 10.30 am Canberra. See you there!

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 14, 2025, at 5:41 AM, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:



[Garrity, Dennis]

Oops. That’s 9.30 am Canberra / 6.30 am Manila / 10.30 pm London. 

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 14, 2025, at 6:08 AM, Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@cifor-icraf.org> wrote:

 Hi robert, The meeting starts at 5.30 pm EST / 10.30 am Canberra. See you there!

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Here is the temporary recording of the meeting with Paul Gambill, including video, audio, chat and transcript.

 

Lucinda and Ron, please upload to HPAC website.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

From: 'Garrity, Dennis' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

Sent: Friday, 14 November 2025 2:36 AM
To: 'healthy-planet-action-coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Cc: Bruce <br...@chesdata.com>; HPAC Steering Circle <hpac-steer...@googlegroups.com>; Paul Gambill <pa...@paulgambill.com>
Subject: [HPAC] Re:minder Announcing our next HPAC meeting with Paul Gambill on Thursday November 13th 2025 at 5.30 pm EST

 

Please join us for our next Healthy Planet Action Coalition members meeting on Thursday, November 13th at 5.30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

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[Ron Baiman]

Thanks Robert.  

Dear Lucinda, 

When you get a chance, could you edit this: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qH7sLIS23IVgT5l8Q7gveTZnBDb8k-Rg/view?usp=sharing  

(In the 'To be edited or fixed" HPAV Videos folder).

See copy of promo Dennis sent for this below. 

Best,

Ron

Paul Gambill will be joining us to discuss his work on educating the public to understand that sunlight reflection methods will be needed in addition to emissions reductions and greenhouse gas removals to address the global heating emergency.

 

Paul co-founded Nori, the first carbon removal marketplace, and served as CEO from 2017–2023. An early pioneer in carbon removal, he helped establish it as a distinct industry category and led Nori to sell the world’s first soil carbon removal credits. After a decade building financial infrastructure for scaling carbon removal, Paul now writes at Inevitable & Obvious Substack about the hard lessons learned in carbon removal and why cooling interventions are essential for buying time while carbon removal reaches the scale climate science demands.

 

Paul will be discussing with us the new initiatives that he is developing to mobilize more support for comprehensive approaches to global heating.

--

Healthy Planet Action Coalition

YouTube Channel

@HPACoalition  (Bluesky and Twitter/X)

Conference_The Global Heating Emergency:_Preventing 2.0C by 2040: What's the Plan? 

How Climate Intervention can Safely and Quickly Cool the Planet_HPAC NYC Climate Week_Sep. 26, 2025

[Garrity, Dennis]

Dear Colleagues, 

Please join us for our next Healthy Planet Action Coalition members meeting on Thursday, November 27th at 5.30 pm Eastern Standard Time (as usual). That’s 10.30 pm UK and 9.30 am Melbourne on Friday. 

The link is https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1 (passcode 662519). 

The program for this session will be Town Hall to discuss the major event that HPAC convened at COP30 on The Global Heating Emergency: What’s the Plan? and members’ review of the overall outcomes of COP30 in relation to our mission. 

Participants are encouraged to propose other items for discussion as well, including the priorities for our workplan in 2026.

Attendance may be lighter than usual since this is Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US. 

Thanks, and Onwards,

Dennis

[Garrity, Dennis]

We look forward to seeing you at the HPAC meeting today.

As background, here’s the link to the recording of our COP30 major event we convened on The Global Heating Emergency: What’s the Plan? that we convened in the CDR Virtual Pavilion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6szE1t3JqE&list=PLCULioIxNlbBiwwNMN8pyRAe5-zHNpM0m&index=7

[Garrity, Dennis]

During our HPAC meeting today we discussed the outcomes of COP30 in relation to our organizational agenda. 

Sev Clarke shared the attached document that he wrote to stimulate new directions for future COPs. He would be grateful for your feedback on it.

Thanks, Dennis

[Bru Pearce]

Spot on Sev,

 

See Home - HiiROC doing just that. Pleased to say that Envisionation was responsible for arranging their kick off funding. The fee funded our work for a couple of years!

 

 

 

Bru Pearce

E-mail   b...@envisionation.org  

Mobile  +44 7740 854713

Web      www.envisionation.org  

The Biosphere Restoration Plan enabled by Empathy Economics

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

Hi Ron and Lucinda

 

Here is the temporary recording of the 27 November HPAC town hall discussion on COP30 for upload to the website.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/0xic6ztwqsv3ykxlwwsnx/AO9Rb4g3_rXDC9lqQUz3URM?rlkey=jmwn514bjs6gru30mm394vlo1&st=vrwng9xy&dl=0

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

From: 'Garrity, Dennis' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

Sent: Friday, 28 November 2025 8:59 AM
To: rob...@rtulip.net; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Bruce <br...@chesdata.com>; Steering Circle HPAC <hpac-steer...@googlegroups.com>; Paul Gambill <pa...@paulgambill.com>; John Dixon <john....@uq.edu.au>

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[Garrity, Dennis]

We look forward to seeing you at our HPAC meeting on Thursday at 5.30 pm Eastern Standard Time (as usual). That’s 10.30 pm UK and 9.30 am Melbourne on Friday. 

The link is https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1 (passcode 662519). 

Robert Chris will be presenting World Temperature Forecaster (WTF), his adaptation of the FaIR climate model.  

After a brief introduction to FaIR and an explanation of what he’s done to make it more accessible to anyone with minimal Excel skills, he’ll illustrate how it answers some questions related to key issues we frequently discuss.  

These will include zero vs net zero CO₂emissions, why Watt for Watt, SRM and decarbonisation cool at much the same rate and the significance of their different radiative effectiveness, termination shock, impact of reducing short-lived climate forcers such as methane, and the impact of other non-CO₂ emissions.  

If you have a particular scenario you’d like him to address, send him an email by Wednesday evening to give him time to prepare it for presentation.

Thanks, and Onwards,

Dennis

[Tom Goreau]

I’ll be in a plane from Bali to Seoul and since can’t connect please ask him for a scenario that saves coral reefs by causing ZERO future warming.

 

This year is expected to tie with 2023 as the second hottest year in history after 2024. The next El Niño, now just starting to simmer off Peru, will set new records.

 

Here in Bali we are growing incredibly beautiful corals (will post on Winter Solstice) but they are so stressed from years of warm water almost none are spawning!

 

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[Robert Chris]

I can do better than that.  I can give you a scenario that will bring us back to <1C of warming without overshooting 1.5C. 

Unfortunately it's not very human-friendly.  

If we're willing to be punished for our abuses, there's lots that can be done.

If we're not, we'll be punished anyway.  But being forced on us, the punishment will be much more severe. 

It's a choice. 

Robert C

Sent from my Galaxy

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[Tom Goreau]

I’m afraid you’re right!

[Aria Mckenna]

Thank you Tom for your question. I look forward to the discussion.  

(Please excuse typos and talk to text! 😆 - Sacrificing email perfection to optimize productivity and health!)

Warmest Thanks For Everything You Do,
Aria McKenna
Brand: "Saving Planet Us"
🙏🥰🩵🌏💦🐋🫒🦋🙌

www.SavingPlanetUs.com

Writer, Producer, Climate Communicator
Global Cooling Productions
www.GlobalCoolingProductions.com

Creator (Script)
REVOLUTION EARTH
(Romantic Political Suspense w/ a touch of Futuristic Fantasy for Streaming TV)

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aria-mckenna

IMDB:
https://www.imdb.me/AriaMcKenna

Host: www.preventing2degrees.org

Watch My 'BECOMING THE CHANGE' Roundtable at:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=C472MxNDzZM&si=pPYMnQW0YxCPaTUH

Creating a Safe Climate at Healthy Planet Action Coalition:
www.HealthyPlanetAction.org

   

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

World Temperature Forecaster (WTF) -  adaptation of the FaIR climate model.  

 

The temporary recording of video, audio, transcript and chat are here for upload of video to HPAC.

 

An AI summary generated from the transcript is attached.  This will need to be reviewed for mistakes.  Note the key finding that SRM is needed to return quickly below 1.5.

 

I thought this was one of the best ever HPAC meetings so encourage you to read the summary and watch the recording.  Robert has created a simple and accessible way to compare main options for climate policy in an easy to use spreadsheet, simplifying the FAIR expert model to assess what combination of carbon and albedo actions can hold temperature within safe limits.  This should be widely discussed to put climate conversations onto a better factual basis and generate more urgency for practical responses.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

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[Garrity, Dennis]

Dear Colleagues, 

Please join us for the launch of a new national affiliate of HPAC in the Philippines. It is led by Dr Delia Catacutan, HPAC member. 

The program and slide deck for the inauguration are attached.

The Philippine national affiliate will be the 2nd national-level organization that we can now work with, in addition to the Health Climate Initiative led by Soumitra Das that is doing great work in India. We hope there will be many more.

Time: Dec 18, 2025 at 08:30-10:00 PM Eastern Std Time /

Dec 19 at 09.30-11.00 AM Singapore/Manila Time.

The call link is:
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87344844924

Onwards, Dennis

[David Spratt]

Climate Hot Takes 2025 A YEAR IN REVIEW: IMPACTS, INSIGHTS, AND ACTION Read the 2025 review

In a year where we saw record-breaking heat, accelerating emissions, and climate impacts arrive faster and harder than even scientists expected, the gap between political rhetoric and physical reality became impossible to ignore. 2025 has made one thing painfully clear: that accelerating warming, tipping risks and policy failure are now colliding at once. In our latest article, Climate Hot Takes, David Spratt reviews a confronting year and cuts through denial and delay to examine what the science actually tells us about where we now stand. He outlines how global emissions and atmospheric CO₂ continue to rise, how the 1.5°C threshold has effectively been crossed far earlier than expected under the Paris Agreement, and why the idea of a gentle “overshoot” followed by recovery is increasingly at odds with the evidence. The article also explores one of the most alarming developments of the year: new research showing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may be far closer to collapse than previously believed, with devastating implications for Europe, Africa, and the global climate system. Alongside this, the review examines how weakening carbon sinks, approaching  tipping points, and the ongoing political protection of fossil fuels are pushing us toward a world of 3°C or more of warming — a level that leading scientists now openly describe as incompatible with a civil, organised society.. Finally, Climate Hot Takes looks at how these realities are reshaping once-taboo conversations about restorative responses, climate cooling and Arctic repair even as Australia’s political debate remains dangerously disconnected from the degree of impacts and risk. Read the 2025 review

[John Dixon]

Good luck. Sorry I am an apology.  Looking forward to scanning the PPT. 

Best

John 

Sent from Android device

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Hi David

 

There are a few points in your article that I found unclear in view of your commitment to SRM.

 

It is certainly good to bring the big issues such as AMOC collapse, tipping cascades and accelerating temperature trends to a wider audience.  But I was surprised to see you cite without criticism the false claim that “Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.”  You go on later to cite the correct conflicting view from Sir David King that ““rapid emissions reduction is no longer sufficient to avoid an unmanageable future for mankind.” 

 

Readers who only see your first point would assume you agree with it.  Especially in view of your claim that “the heart of the climate challenge is ending the use of fossil files. No ifs, no buts.”  There are many ifs and buts about this.  Especially, but if we don’t end the use of fossil fuels, then what?  It is more strongly arguable that the heart of the climate challenge is removing excess heat.  Ending the use of fossil fuels is one factor, but a particularly difficult one, with strongly entrenched and influential opposition, with little prospect of success.  In this context, your language “the heart of the climate challenge” runs the risk of building false hopes in an impractical strategy and sequence, deflecting support from the more effective and urgent path of a main focus on restoring lost albedo.   

 

On your comments on Australian politics, I don’t agree with your claim that “the opposition is at war with the laws of physics and chemistry.”  That is an unjustified partisan slant, true for much of their voter base but not the parliamentary party.  Their main climate policy argument is that cutting Australia’s emissions is far too small to materially affect temperature, which is true.  You could just as easily argue that the government is at war with the laws of physics and chemistry, in view of their denial about physical constraints, climate impact, cost and grid reliability for the proposed renewable rollout.

 

I know Pearls and Irritations is a leftist site, so perhaps you are tailoring your article to the audience there, but it doesn’t help to reinforce delusional echo chambers around mainstream climate mythologies.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

David kindly sent me a personal reply to this email, which showed some misunderstandings that others have also expressed about my views.

 

David’s support for SRM in this article is very welcome, and courageous, but is somewhat buried beneath prior statements proposing a carbon-only climate strategy. The challenge for climate policy is to define an optimal realist path so we don’t burn.  I do not by any means reject carbon action, only the carbon exclusivism that David’s article initially appears to endorse.    I do not believe that calling for an end to fossil fuel use is a realist carbon action.  The polarisation it generates is not worth it. Ocean photosynthesis is a far more feasible main carbon path, but this will require cooperation with the capitalist system, not opposition to it.

 

My response was not entirely negative, as I acknowledged the good points in the article.  It is because David is such a valued thought leader that I want to comment on the detail of his proposed strategy.  I do not see SRM as a silver bullet, but rather as the most urgent task in an effective sequence of responses.  The emerging situation is that decarbonisation can only make minimal contribution, including to reversing acidification.  Decarbonisation without CDR is simply not scalable to climate-relevant impact. What is needed to fix the carbon problem is large scale removal/conversion of atmospheric carbon, which will take decades to become effective, time that we do not have.  Hence the priority for SRM.

 

Opposition to SAI is superficial compared to opposition to decarbonisation. Opposition to SAI is based on fear and ignorance, which can be reversed and overcome by clear explanation, advocacy and funding, whereas opposition to decarbonisation is based on major economic and political and social inertia and interests, which are far more intractable.

 

On Australian politics, I disagree that conservative Liberal Andrew Hastie is a climate denier.  I have not seen him make the same false statements that former leader Tony Abbott makes. Hastie looks at climate through a strategic security/stability lens, which I believe can become amenable to support for SRM and CDR, which I think would be a more effective Australian climate contribution than the current Minister Chris Bowen’s energy sector focus.  Reporting around the Coalition’s 2025 net zero review noted Hastie was framing the dispute as how (and at what cost) climate ambitions are pursued, rather than rejecting the fundamentals of climate change.

 

Compliments of the Season

 

Robert Tulip

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[David Spratt]

I had no intention of continuing this conversation and tried to keep this offline, but since I been referenced twice, here is my response to the initial email.

The end.

David Spratt

Begin forwarded message:

From: David Spratt <dsp...@bigpond.net.au>

Subject: Re: [HPAC] Climate Hot Takes 2025

Date: 19 December 2025 at 9:05:46 am AEDT

To: rob...@rtulip.net

Robert,

Yours is the only negative response so far, all the others have been affirmative. 

Advocating for SRM/interventions without demanding the rapid phase-out of the fossil fuels is the greatest gift we can give to big oil and gas and petrostates.  As one correspondent this morning said:

"SRM can only be justified alongside steep emission reductions, otherwise it'd be a gift to the planet destroying fossil fuel execs and politicians, giving them a stage to continue their pillaging. It'd be gravy for coal, oil and gas companies. I think I'd rather burn?”

And if FF are not cut quickly, acidification will kill the oceans and us. And methane cuts are a fundamentally important short-term cooling strategy.

I reaffirm that fast FF emission cuts are necessary but not sufficient. All three levers are necessary, a point I have been making since Climate Code Red in 2008. Repeat: All three are absolutely necessary. 

As Mike McCraken has said, SRM might be good a degree of cooling, but not two or three.  We are already at 1.5C with another in the system, so we are already at a stretch because SRM by itself is unlikely by itself to get us back under tipping points which were activated at < 1C and possibly < 0.5C, eg. WAIS.   

As many cryosphere experts have said, reestablishing polar ice stability requires Holocene conditions or return to ~0C.  SRM alone will not do this.

Inside the walls of HPAC there are a lot of SAI/SRM boffins. It is important that SRM not be seen as a silver bullet, because by itself it is far from that. i.e. like FF reductions, it is necessary but not sufficient. 

You say FF reduction is "a particularly difficult one, with strongly entrenched and influential opposition, with little prospect of success”.  And you reckon large-scale SAI isn’t????

And yes, most of the National  Party are climate deniers and a good rump of the Liberal Party, including the next likely leaders, Hastie or Taylor. Which is not true of Labor, and they are no friends of mine. 

This article was commissioned as a “year in review” piece, not an SRM piece.  I included the rise of the interventions/SRM dbate as one of the three big stories of the year.  How many other “in review” pieces did that? 

David

On 19 Dec 2025, at 1:19 am, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:

Hi David

 

There are a few points in your article that I found unclear in view of your commitment to SRM.

 

It is certainly good to bring the big issues such as AMOC collapse, tipping cascades and accelerating temperature trends to a wider audience.  But I was surprised to see you cite without criticism the false claim that “Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.”  You go on later to cite the correct conflicting view from Sir David King that ““rapid emissions reduction is no longer sufficient to avoid an unmanageable future for mankind.”  

 

Readers who only see your first point would assume you agree with it.  Especially in view of your claim that “the heart of the climate challenge is ending the use of fossil files. No ifs, no buts.”  There are many ifs and buts about this.  Especially, but if we don’t end the use of fossil fuels, then what?  It is more strongly arguable that the heart of the climate challenge is removing excess heat.  Ending the use of fossil fuels is one factor, but a particularly difficult one, with strongly entrenched and influential opposition, with little prospect of success.  In this context, your language “the heart of the climate challenge” runs the risk of building false hopes in an impractical strategy and sequence, deflecting support from the more effective and urgent path of a main focus on restoring lost albedo.   

 

On your comments on Australian politics, I don’t agree with your claim that “the opposition is at war with the laws of physics and chemistry.”  That is an unjustified partisan slant, true for much of their voter base but not the parliamentary party.  Their main climate policy argument is that cutting Australia’s emissions is far too small to materially affect temperature, which is true.  You could just as easily argue that the government is at war with the laws of physics and chemistry, in view of their denial about physical constraints, climate impact, cost and grid reliability for the proposed renewable rollout.

 

I know Pearls and Irritations is a leftist site, so perhaps you are tailoring your article to the audience there, but it doesn’t help to reinforce delusional echo chambers around mainstream climate mythologies.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

From: 'David Spratt' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> 
Sent: Thursday, 18 December 2025 12:07 PM
To: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com
Cc: Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@cifor-icraf.org>
Subject: [HPAC] Climate Hot Takes 2025

 

 

Climate Hot Takes 2025 A YEAR IN REVIEW: IMPACTS, INSIGHTS, AND ACTION Read the 2025 review

In a year where we saw record-breaking heat, accelerating emissions, and climate impacts arrive faster and harder than even scientists expected, the gap between political rhetoric and physical reality became impossible to ignore. 2025 has made one thing painfully clear: that accelerating warming, tipping risks and policy failure are now colliding at once. In our latest article, Climate Hot Takes, David Spratt reviews a confronting year and cuts through denial and delay to examine what the science actually tells us about where we now stand. He outlines how global emissions and atmospheric CO₂ continue to rise, how the 1.5°C threshold has effectively been crossed far earlier than expected under the Paris Agreement, and why the idea of a gentle “overshoot” followed by recovery is increasingly at odds with the evidence. The article also explores one of the most alarming developments of the year: new research showing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may be far closer to collapse than previously believed, with devastating implications for Europe, Africa, and the global climate system. Alongside this, the review examines how weakening carbon sinks, approaching  tipping points, and the ongoing political protection of fossil fuels are pushing us toward a world of 3°C or more of warming — a level that leading scientists now openly describe as incompatible with a civil, organised society..

Finally, Climate Hot Takes looks at how these realities are reshaping once-taboo conversations about restorative responses, climate cooling and Arctic repaireven as Australia’s political debate remains dangerously disconnected from the degree of impacts and risk. Read the 2025 review

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[Michael MacCracken]

Hi Robert T--Just a note that I like the thoughtfulness and reasoning of your response.

Mike M

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[robert...@gmail.com]

Hi RobertT

I think your comments about SRM being 'the priority' and 'Decarbonisation without CDR is simply not scalable to climate-relevant impact' need a more nuanced presentation.

It's all about timing.  When you say SRM is now 'the priority' what is this intended to mean with regard to decarbonisation?  Is that not an equal priority?  If not, at what point does it become so?  What do you consider to be the political messaging around decarbonisation?  That it can wait until SRM has cooled surface temperature?  If so, to what level?  Are your comments about mCDR to be taken to mean that there's no need to even engage with reducing our dependence on fossil fuels because mCDR is 'far more feasible'?  I'd agree that calling for an end to fossil fuels is not a Realist carbon action (note the capitalisation) but are you also saying that it's not a realistic option?  If so, in what circumstances might it be, if ever?  If you're not calling for total reliance on SRM, how and when do you envisage decarbonisation being folded into the policy mix?  Would it be wrong to read into your remarks that 'drill baby drill' is fine, so long as it's matched with sufficient SRM and mCDR?  Have you modelled what such a policy mix would look like in terms of the amont of SRM and mCDR require to keep warming below 1.5C?

For me, and many others I imagine, a compelling argument along the lines you are proposing needs convincing answers to these questions.

Regards

Robert

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[Veli Albert Kallio]

Plan B on cooling seems to be the option:

Either you reduce emissions, or we'll reduce the people.

Nuclear winter is excellent way of cooling climate and get rid of emissions (and lot of us European and American people).

Just look at this space, in years to come.

Not very encouraging, nothing progressed from those days when people were clubbing each other over access to water hole.

Such a days we are living - if you know anything about military planning.

Monsoon uncertainties in CO2 rich world and ice free Arctic ahead is already tying India and China closer to Russia over Ukraine crisis.

Arab nations angered by inaction to constrain genocidal and war criminal Israel by USA, complex patterns like a kaleidoscope where pieces shift in multiple ways — with more and more calling for revenge (on perceived and real injustice and climate elements).

Nuclear weapons are prefect weapons of revenge, and perfect way for them to cool the Arctic and re-start monsoons.

---

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of robert...@gmail.com <robert...@gmail.com>
Sent: 19 December 2025 16:45
To: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Climate Hot Takes 2025

 

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[John Nissen]

Hi Albert,

The planet's direction of travel is towards further warming, more weather extremes, and accelerated sea level rise.  This means things are going to get worse and worse for humanity unless and until that direction of travel is reversed.  When it is reversed, we have an opportunity for planetary restoration: restoring the planet to a healthy state.  I am optimistic that this goal can be achieved, not in my lifetime but in the lifetime of the younger generations.  A fifty year plan could get us out of this mess by 2075, starting right away with SAI preparation and deployment.

I was talking to you earlier today.  We have all been looking at the CERES satellite data, which shows a decline in the planet's albedo.  We know that the Arctic's albedo is on the decline, having lost the equivalent of 0.5 to 1.0 W/m2 from snow and sea ice decline.  The GHG side only looks at outgoing thermal/IR/longwave radiation; nothing done with GHGs can affect the reflected outgoing visible/shortwave radiation.  Thus our only means for reversing the direction of travel is through SRM.  And the only SRM technique which is safe, available and powerful enough is SAI.

We advocate starting with SAI to refreeze the Arctic.  As you have pointed out to me, past history shows that ice sheets collapse quite suddenly, with avalanches of giant lumps of ice hitting the water at hundreds of miles per hour, generating megatsunamis and raising the sea level.  London and other major conurbations could go under quite suddenly and without warning.

But Pinatubo has shown we can cool the planet quite simply and cheaply through SAI.  Recent research suggests that the cooling can be done quite safely, with relatively small and manageable side-effects.

So what's stopping us?  The people with most power in the climate scene are those engaged in a battle between emissions reduction and "drill, baby, drill".  SRM, solar engineering, albedo enhancement or cooling intervention (call it what you will) is either ignored, or denigrated as a distraction from emissions reduction, or dismissed as an unnecessary risk, or castigated as an evil violation of Mother Nature.  Whatever the reasons people give, they are not facing up to the reality of the climate crisis which requires the implementation of direct cooling. 

Robert (Tulip) is proposing an Albedo Accord, where countries get together in support of rebrightening the planet.  The funding for SAI, at ten or a few tens of billions of dollars per year, could come from a consortium of countries who are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes or sea level rise.  One or more of the major powers could actually deploy the SAI.

You say that the EU has given up on trying to achieve net zero by 2050, with powerful lobbying from one of the car industries not geared up for electric cars. The EU could substitute the lost ambition with an ambition for SAI deployment, which they could probably fund alone, though not implement alone.  This would be a wonderful example to the rest of the world.

So there is hope for the young people of today.

Cheers, John

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[rob...@rtulip.net]

Hi RC, great questions.

 

Let me go through them in order.

1. When you say SRM is now 'the priority' what is this intended to mean with regard to decarbonisation? 

My concern is that our planet is likely to be more fragile and sensitive than we now generally assume.  This creates an urgent planetary security requirement to hold temperature rise down, setting radiative forcing as the top priority planetary boundary.  A strategic pivot to SRM is the only way to achieve this reversal of policy priorities.  On decarbonisation, I worry that the potential climate impact of energy reform has been heavily overstated.  As with SRM, intensive large scale field research is needed to optimise greenhouse gas removal (GGR), rather than accepting the political path dependence of energy transition.  Climate effects of carbon action will be measured in decades whereas SRM effects can be measured in years.

2. Is that not an equal priority?

In the long term, managing carbon and albedo have equal priority for climate stability, but in the short term, what we do about carbon will not materially affect temperature.  That means in terms of immediate impact SRM should have higher priority.

3. If not, at what point does it become so? 

The current situation is that the priority within the climate action community is badly skewed, ignoring albedo and placing sole focus on carbon.  A major lobbying effort is needed to achieve a balance.   

4. What do you consider to be the political messaging around decarbonisation? 

That is a complex question with many dimensions.  Renewable energy advocates wrongly equate decarbonisation and climate action.  The political messaging I would suggest is to start from the observation that a return toward Holocene GHG concentrations is essential to prevent sea level rise and other dangerous tipping points, but this is a vastly bigger project than anything possible within the energy sector.  You can’t fix a trillion tonne problem with million tonne responses.  As such, the chunks of carbon action need to be prioritised based on cost, effectiveness, speed and scale.  Equally, the economic and social and climate risks of rapid energy sector reform should be recognised, not dismissed as climate denial. My impression is that when all that is integrated, the prevalent idea that equates energy reform with climate action will be widely seen, with some justification, as a form of mass hysteria.  The term decarbonisation should be limited to mean reduction in fossil fuel use, not the totality of carbon action.  A further concern I have is that the ‘war against fossil fuels’ has emotional, political and economic baggage that is distinctly unhelpful in achieving a calmer and more effective analysis of climate policy.

5. That it can wait until SRM has cooled surface temperature? 

GGR research should be the main carbon priority, recognising that trying to slow fossil fuel use on climate grounds is ineffective.  Calls for an end to fossil fuels remind me of Robert Heinlein’s comment that trying to teach a pig to sing wastes your time and annoys the pig.   This pig is now mightily annoyed, as shown by events such as Trump’s assault on NCAR.  My impression is that a main underlying reason why President Trump wants to abolish NCAR and climate science more generally is to send a warning to the science community to stop opposing fossil fuels.  That is a reflection of the balance of political forces, and suggests merit in exploring alternative climate strategies, choosing battles more constructively.  People will keep burning fossil fuels regardless of climate impact, so energy transition has to be managed in a slower, more cooperative and less antagonistic way, while other carbon action ramps up.  As I have stated before, decarbonisation is ineffective, since it only slows increase, and creates no path to the necessary large scale GHG removal phase, which has to prioritise CDR as providing the bulk of the net, firstly in net zero and then in net negative emissions.

6. If so, to what level? 

GGR and SRM are required in parallel.  Optimal temperatures will be a primary ongoing world political concern.  AI will help us determine that.  SRM will be fast and GGR will be slower.

7. Are your comments about mCDR to be taken to mean that there's no need to even engage with reducing our dependence on fossil fuels because mCDR is 'far more feasible'? 

Reducing fossil fuel use is too slow, small, difficult, expensive and contested to be a primary short term climate strategy.  These efforts fight against strong incentives for increase, creating political polarisation and paralysis, while crowding out effective cooling methods.  I expect Marine CDR will scale up to remove more carbon than total new emissions, although of course the feasibility of that is not yet proved.  That means reducing dependence on fossil fuels is marginal by comparison, compounding its annoyance factor. It is likely in my view that marine CDR will become a basis for a circular economy, using coal and gas emissions as feedstock to keep the pollution out of the air and sea.  These are vast research questions.  The fossil fuel economy has the funds, influence, skills and incentives to lead this research, in collaboration with other industries that have commercial incentive to cool the planet.

8. I'd agree that calling for an end to fossil fuels is not a Realist carbon action (note the capitalisation) but are you also saying that it's not a realistic option?

I tend to equate Realist and realistic.  Realpolitik requires astute assessment of the likely consequences of rival paths.  Calling for an end to fossil fuels antagonises the whole capitalist system, apart from the rent seekers who benefit from transition subsidies.  As such it is a futile form of symbolic gesture politics, with no prospect of success. 

9. If so, in what circumstances might it be, if ever? 

The geo-upheaval of shifting trillions of tonnes of carbon from the crust to the biosphere is the defining event of our age.  My view is that we will find that carbon is so valuable that we can create universal abundance by converting it from hydrocarbons to useful commodities, such as soil, roads, buildings, biomass, etc, on such a vast scale that today we can barely imagine.  Sanitation was not solved by banning shit, and nor will climate instability be solved by banning fossil fuels.  The acceleration of emission reduction needs to shift from ‘before the pipe’ to ‘after the pipe’.

10. If you're not calling for total reliance on SRM, how and when do you envisage decarbonisation being folded into the policy mix? 

I am of course not calling for total reliance on SRM.  A return to planetary homeostasis will require large scale GHG removal.  I would use the analogy of building a house, with SRM as the foundations and carbon action as the walls and roof. You cannot build walls until the foundations are laid.  I expect a basic paradigm shift in climate policy, away from the sterile left-right division created by the focus on decarbonisation, toward a recognition that the planetary climate security crisis is actually real, and requires concerted main focus on cooling before we can solve the longer term carbon problems.  

11. Would it be wrong to read into your remarks that 'drill baby drill' is fine, so long as it's matched with sufficient SRM and mCDR?

That of course is a slogan of President Trump, who I doubt is capable of the intellectual strategic vision required to understand the security implications of climate risk.  There is a whole mentality of wanton disregard for ecological impacts that is a big and justified reason why many people are so hostile to the capitalist system.  The Arctic needs to be refrozen, perhaps with an ice canal across the pole.  The Trump mentality wrongly sees warming as good as it enables higher extractive profits, ignoring collapse risks.  Your question raises the problem of how capitalism can shift to a sustainable morality.  My view is that there needs to be dialogue on paradigm shift across a whole range of fronts.  I look at such questions from the perspective of Gaian spirituality, asking how we can restore planetary homeostasis in a realist way, which means an incremental cooperative and respectful engagement with the existing world economy, while retaining vision of transformative goals. 

12. Have you modelled what such a policy mix would look like in terms of the amount of SRM and mCDR required to keep warming below 1.5C?

Your excellent World Temperature Forecaster model can help understand these questions.   My preliminary use of it indicates that Emission Reduction Alone would slow temperature rise by only 0.1°C for every ten gigatonnes of CO2 not emitted each year.  Your model indicates that cutting annual emissions by 10 GtCO2 by 2040  would lower 2050 temperature rise from 2°C to 1.9°C.  This is the same if the 10Gt is from CDR rather than cutting fossil fuel use. That is marginal.  However, a 10Gt cut is very big, expensive and difficult in economic and political terms, and faces concerted opposition.  UNEP figures suggest that a 10Gt CO2 cut would cost $200-500 billion per year, as I understand them.  So that is annual cost up to $5 trillion per degree using carbon as our lever, as a first estimate, less if the result is mainly from CDR rather than reduced fossil fuel use. By contrast, MacMartin et al, in a paper I found extremely valuable, estimate that SRM alone could feasibly lower temperature by 1°C by 2055. Economists assess SRM cost as effectively “costless” and “trivial”.  Smith and Wagner calculated SRM annual deployment costs of only $2.25 billion.  They state “Total pre-start costs to launch a hypothetical SAI effort 15 years from now are ∼$3.5 billion in 2018 US $. A program that would deploy 0.2 Mt of SO2 in year 1 and ramp up linearly thereafter at 0.2 Mt SO2/yr would require average annual operating costs of ∼$2.25 billion/yr over 15 years.” Specifically on your question, Hansen’s latest paper shows the average trend line will pass 1.5C by 2027, and then possibly hit 2C before 2040, so the challenge is to ramp up effective responses as fast as possible.  When you have meningitis you don’t wait around.

Regards

Robert Tulip

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/39016118-65ff-44aa-8768-234b148ef739%40gmail.com.

[Garrity, Dennis]

Dear Colleagues, 

There will not be an HPAC members meeting on Christmas.

We will resume our regular biweekly meetings on January 8th, 2026. 

Merry Christmas to all and a Happy New Year!

[Tom Goreau]

Dear colleagues,

 

Season’s Greetings!

 

Please see the 2025 GCRA annual report at www.globalcoral.org

 

(Text copied and pasted below, but the photographs and videos at the link are essential)

 

1) Jamaica struggles to regrow coastal resources after worst hurricane in history

 

2) Biorock Indonesia grows back coral reefs for 25 years in world’s longest, largest, most Biodiverse, and most beautiful coral reefs and beach regeneration projects, while they vanish everywhere else in the world.

 

3) The atoll counties, especially Tuvalu and Kiribati, have had near total coral mortality from high temperatures in the last two years (and so has the entire Caribbean and most of Australia and SIDS), and NO funding is now helping low lying island states to effectively protect themselves from global climate change.

 

With hopes for a better 2026!

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edit/10.1201/b14314/innovative-methods-marine-ecosystem-restoration-robert-kent-trench-thomas-goreau

 

On the Nature of Things: The Scientific Photography of Fritz Goro

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

 

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

 

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

 

December 21, 2025

GLOBAL CORAL REEF ALLIANCE

2025 WINTER SOLSTICE REPORT

Tom Goreau, President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

 

I: Biorock to restore damaged Jamaican coral reefs, beaches, and fisheries after worst hurricane in history 

II: Biorock Indonesia: A quarter century of the world’s longest, largest, most biodiverse, and most beautiful coral reef and beach regeneration projects 

III: Biorock Sustainable Blue Ocean Economy to reverse climate change

 

 

 

Record-Setting Hurricane Melissa slams full force into Jamaica

 

I: Jamaica Devastated by Strongest Hurricane in History: Biorock Electric Reefs to Regenerate Coral Reefs, Beaches, Fisheries, Biodiversity, and Ecotourism

Jamaica is the latest victim of catastrophic economic losses from fossil fuel-caused global warming, after the strongest hurricane on record, Melissa, hit full force on October 28, 2025.

Charlie, the strongest Hurricane ever to hit Jamaica back in 1951, and still the deadliest, blew the roof off our home when I was a baby, and flattened coral reefs around the island. Five years later, those coral reefs had grown back! Now the coral reefs, Jamaica’s richest renewable resource and source of its marine biodiversity, beaches, fisheries, and tourism economy, are gone and unable to recover.

Natural coral reef regeneration no longer happens due to severe coral damage from global warming, pollution, and new diseases. Regeneration of coastal ecosystems won’t happen by itself. But coral reefs and fisheries can be regenerated using Biorock Electric Reef Technology, invented in Discovery Bay, Jamaica, in the 1980s, and now used around the globe, but sadly no longer in its own native land.

GCRA will use funds raised to train Jamaican Marine Protected Area and Fish Sanctuary management staff to grow Biorock shore protection and sand-producing reefs in front of the severely eroded Discovery Bay Public and Fishermen’s Beaches, St. Ann, in collaboration with the Discovery Bay Marine Protected Area and Fish Sanctuary, and local environmental management organizations.

A Biorock coral nursery will also be set up in Silver Sands, Trelawny, to propagate fragments of Acropora collected by Felix Charnley that survived the last three years of record-high temperatures and coral bleaching mortality, and survived Hurricane Melissa, in collaboration with local environmental management groups. If more funding can be raised the program will expand to marine protected areas and fish sanctuaries around Jamaica, and in other tropical islands.

The Global Coral Reef Alliance was founded in 1990 to represent the urgent need to fund Jamaican, Caribbean, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) grass-roots coral reef ecosystem regeneration and community-based management projects at the United Nations Summit on Sustainable Development, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, because the inevitability of coral reef extinction was already clear then. Sadly, funding to help small island developing states save themselves never materialized, or was hijacked by rich country organizations who left out tropical islanders (islanders call these groups “whiteboy tourist divers”, who love jet-setting PR selfies but don’t stay to work with us).

Biorock works directly with Jamaican fishermen to preserve their reef resources. Serious coral reef restoration has no benefactors or major donors anywhere in the world; almost all of our donations are in the $10-$20 range. Those who have profited the most from destruction of coral reefs have never helped to save them. 

 

DISCOVERY BAY BEACH COMMUNITY CLEANUP AFTER HURRICANE MELISSA NOVEMBER 16, 2025

Photographs by Sharon Chin Quee (right), text by Tom Goreau (second right). Dedicated to the late Lee Arbouin (second from left) who helped lead local efforts to protect the Discovery Bay Public Beach from pollution by dolphin pen operators and who tragically died swimming at the place she loved most in the world (photo and video by Thomas Sarkisian, 2019 showing Discovery Bay Beach days before the dolphin pens went in).

 

The photographs clearly show that the beach was almost entirely washed away and the sand dumped on land. The beach in 2019 had already lost around two thirds of its width in the previous 50 years:

 

Historic painting of Discovery Bay Fishing Beach by the late Jamaican artist Herbie Rose (reproduced with kind permission of the artist)

Hurricane Melissa was the strongest ever documented to hit land, but worse lie ahead as global warming and fossil fuel use race ahead out of control.

JAMAICA is the latest and one of the worst victims of global warming caused by fossil fuels, as our island was battered by the most powerful hurricane on record. It is far too soon to assess the damage, or the cost of rebuilding, but all coastal areas are devastated, and with them, a major part of the economy.

Increasing damage from record hurricanes Charlie, Flora, Allen, Gilbert, Ivan, and Melissa, is caused by global warming and global sea level rise, driven by the world’s fossil fuel addiction, and by self-inflicted wounds from poor coastal planning, driven by greed.

Given near complete destruction of our natural coral reef, mangrove, and sea grass coastal defenses long BEFORE Hurricane Melissa hit, rebuilding damaged coastal infrastructure the same way guarantees far worse losses in the next record hurricane, unless our natural defenses are regenerated for future generations.

We can’t afford to repeat the same mistakes again! A climate-smart strategy is needed now to reinvigorate coastal ecosystems and protect shorelines against accelerating future climate change.

Biorock technology, invented and developed at the Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory, is the best method in the world for recharging biodiverse coastal ecosystems and the fisheries that depend on their health, for regrowing eroded beaches and protecting coasts.

Biorock is used in some 50 countries all around the world, but NOT in its own native land, Jamaica!

We call for the Discovery Bay Marine Protected Area, Fish Sanctuary, and Marine Laboratory to be rejuvenated as a leading global centre for cutting-edge research and training in ecosystem regeneration. By growing back coastal ecosystems, soils, and fisheries to protect coastlines from climate change, we aim to accelerate Jamaica’s natural recovery from Melissa’s devastation, and make it the most beautiful island in the Caribbean again, above and below water, as it was in 1494.

Screenshot

Jamaica’s Coat of Arms shows Indigenous Jamaicans and the pineapples they carried by canoe when they immigrated from Amazonia. DNA shows one of the author’s great great great great grandmothers was Native Caribbean Taino Arawak.

 

 

II:  A Quarter Century of the World’s Longest, Largest, Most Biodiverse, and Most Beautiful Coral and Beach Regeneration Projects:

 

Pemuteran and Gili Trawangan Grow Back Coral Reefs, Beaches, and Sustainable Blue Economies While Climate Change Destroys Them Elsewhere

New Biorock reef, in form of traditional Balinese Hindu Temple Gates, on Pemuteran Beach just before installation. Left to Right: I Gusti Agung Bagus Mantra (Yayasan Karang Lestari, Taman Sari Resort), Made Gunaksa (Biorock Centre), Tom Goreau (Global Coral Reef Alliance), Jro Mangku Sumer (Balinese Priest blessing the project), Komang Astika (Biorock Centre), Kadek Asa (arranging offerings to Balinese Gods). The beach has been grown by Biorock projects for a quarter century.

When we began growing new Biorock reefs in front of the dead reef at Pemuteran that had died from bleaching in 1998, this beach was entirely under water at high tide; the deck chairs could not be left on the beach because they washed away at high tide. The trees were falling over into the sea, so they built a sea wall in front to protect them, which increased erosion of the black volcanic beach sand. 25 years later the beach has grown by 10-20 metres in width (the high tide line is shown by wet sand at right) and a metre in height, and so much new limestone sand is being produced by the Biorock reefs to the right, that the color of the sand has changed from black volcanic sand to white limestone sand (photo by Tom Goreau).

This beach at Pulau Gangga, Sulawesi, Indonesia had entirely washed away and the beach cabins were falling into the sea when we began. There was a cliff 1.5 meters high right in front of the cabins that had to be moved inland before they fell into the sea. The large tree fell over into the sea, the main trunk is now buried under the sand beach that grew back over it in months naturally without any dredging, dumping, and pumping, and a side branch grew upward into a new trunk. The new beach sand came from coralline algae growing in the coral reefs to the right, that protect them from erosion (photograph by Tom Goreau).

The health of coral reefs and beaches has never been worse, nor deteriorated faster, than over the last three years of record heat and sea levels. As earth’s heatstroke fever rises, coral reefs are the first ecosystems to die, but many more will follow.

Coral reefs are dying from accelerating global warming all over the world, and many of the most abundant species are now functionally extinct across the Caribbean, Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Australia. Beaches are washing away world-wide as global sea level rise accelerates and storms become stronger due to global warming.

But not in Pemuteran, Bali, and Gili Trawangan, Lombok, Indonesia, where Biorock technology has been growing back coral reefs and beaches for over 25 years, in the longest-running, largest, most biodiverse, and most beautiful coral reef restoration projects in the world, and the basis of entire village and island economies. You can see a very small part of the Pemuteran project in this video by Komang Astika, of the Biorock Centre in Pemuteran. The Biorock reefs shown range in age from one year to 25 years, with the youngest reefs at the start and the older ones at the end. Photos showing growth of corals on nearly 80 Biorock reefs are available at these links from  and , which has helped maintain the projects. These beaches are especially popular with macro photographers, because of the extraordinary biological diversity of rare species.

The following short video, taken December 2025 by Tom Goreau on Pemuteran Beach shows the constant stream of tourists diving and snorkeling on the Biorock reefs, the life blood of the Pemuteran sustainable tourism economy. People come from all over the world to see a village growing back its coral reefs, beaches, and natural Balinese beauty. They come by word of mouth, not from advertising campaigns. Pemuteran has been recognized with repeated awards for sustainable tourism and environmental management over the last two decades, including the United Nations Development Programme Equator Award for Community Based Development of Indigenous Communities, and many awards from world tourism and environmental organizations. The latest from the UN World Tourism Organization is the .

In 2025 the Karang Lestari project installed one of the largest Biorock reefs, in the form of traditional Balinese Temple gates. This was put under power, and the power supplies of several other projects were repaired. After a quarter of a century of continuous maintenance, the project is now imperiled by failure of old electrical components readily available 25 years ago, but now obsolete and no longer available. The Global Coral Reef Alliance Technology Development team, led by Thomas Sarkisian, has tested a new generation of power systems that are twice as efficient and are sealed so they don’t corrode from salt air, on two Pemuteran Biorock reefs, and we are seeking funding to implement the much more efficient system, with real-time data logging and transmission, to the entire project  in 2026 to bring it from its first quarter century towards its first half century.

You can see the extraordinary growth of coral on Biorock in this short video taken by Delphine Robbe of the Gili Eco Trust, in Gili Trawangan, Lombok, home to the largest coral restoration project in the world. The bare structure shows where a boat that broke its anchor rope in a storm and ran onto the Biorock reef smashed off a meter of coral growth, exposing the Biorock reef structure hidden below. It will soon grow back just like the undamaged portions. This video shows that Biorock can rapidly grow meters of coral reef to protect beaches and provide reef habitat for fishes and tourists. No other method does. 

The Pemuteran projects were the first of the , of which the first daughter group, the , runs the largest complex of coral regeneration projects in the world, with 182 Biorock reefs. These reef power supplies also need upgrading after more than 20 years. Their phenomenal growth is shown in this video by Delphine Robbe:

Another extraordinary Biorock project can be seen in another part of Pemuteran Bay, in front of Reef Seen, the only place where an entire reef was wired up without any Biorock reef structures. Millimeter-thick binding wire has now grown up to a metre-thick solid limestone, growing hard rock bottom upwards faster than sea level rise.

Besides these Biorock projects in Bali and Lombok, the Biorock Indonesia network also has projects in Java, Sulawesi, Flores, Sumbawa, Sumatra, Ambon, Halmahera, and other places across Indonesia. These Biorock Arks are helping save and amplify Indonesia’s biodiversity in our planet’s heartland of global marine biodiversity, the largest and most biodiverse coral reef, mangrove, and seagrass ecosystems on Earth.

 

 

 

 

 

III: Coastal Adaptation for a sustainable Blue Economy:

 

Geotherapy Regenerative Development To Reverse Global Climate Change

Coastal ecosystems everywhere in the world except at Pemuteran, Bali and Gili Trawangan, Lombok, Indonesia are collapsing from fossil fuel global warming, land-based sources of pollution, and new diseases, and our most productive renewable marine reefs, fisheries, biodiversity, and sand supplies are being replaced by slime, weeds, parasites, and invasive pests as the world rushes to capitalize, degenerate, and destroy its sustainable coastal ecosystem resources and services as fast as possible.

In 2025, following three years of record global high temperatures and sea levels, corals are dying from heat stroke, pollution, and disease at record rates, as we first warned in Jamaica would happen decades ago. In 2025 Florida coral reef scientists announced that the two most abundant coral species in the Florida Keys were now functionally extinct in the wild, with only a handful of survivors being maintained in aquaria. The same is true in Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Mexico, and across the Caribbean. The few survivors are so heat stressed they can’t reproduce. The Great Barrier Reef has never had less corals following repeated bleaching events. The last Acropora in the Persian Gulf are extinct in the wild and being maintained on Biorock Coral Arks. During the last two years places that had never bleached before, and were falsely claimed to be “resilient”, such as Raja Ampat in West Papua and the Gulf of Aqaba, bleached like all other reefs once it became sufficiently hot. It is just a matter of time for the rest, except for the more heat tolerant corals we are growing in Biorock Coral Arks in Pemuteran, Gili Trawangan, and wherever local communities can find the funds and governments will permit them to save their own corals.

Only Biorock Electric Reef Technology, an open-source technology invented by the Global Coral Reef Alliance in Jamaica and developed in tropical islands around the world, reverses collapse of coastal ecosystem resources and regenerates them at record rates. Small Island Developing States desperately need funding to grow their own way out of global climate change, but they have been effectively denied funding to do so by the rich country and international funding agencies, who instead peddle worthless seawalls that quickly collapse.

GCRA will work with local management groups in coral reef countries trying to regenerate their lost coastal resources, especially in tropical islands and indigenous fishing communities. Please contact us for more information on how Biorock Technology can be used to solve sustainable marine resource management problems at YOUR site: 

Effective adaptation to runaway climate change overshoot is essential everywhere, repeating the disastrous mistakes of coastal management based on greed and exploitation instead of nurturing and growing our coastal reef ecosystems will only hasten their collapse. GCRA stands in the forefront of innovative technologies for regenerative ecosystem development to reverse climate change to safe levels.

Reversing the catastrophic impending impacts of global climate change before runaway warming triggers disaster for coral reefs and human civilization will need a three-pronged strategy to stabilize temperatures at safe levels: 1) ending fossil fuel pollution, 2) large scale BioGeoTherapy to regenerate ecosystems on land and sea to absorb and safely store the dangerous excess CO2 now in the atmosphere, and 3) urgent efforts to develop safe methods to make the Earth shinier to reflect more solar radiation and prevent further warming (solar radiation management) in time to save coral reefs from global warming extinction.

Much worse lies ahead when crazy politicians force us into runaway climate overshoot, extreme temperatures that coral reefs and humans will not survive. Biorock offers the last hope to save coral reefs, beaches, and all coastal ecosystems, while helping reverse climate change with greatly increased Blue Carbon storage.

Global warming is killing coral reefs, but the beaches will wash away before politicians can see the light and allow communities to grow back their own natural resources. 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Date: Thursday, October 9, 2025 at 09:18
To: Cindy Cisneros Tiangco <ctia...@adb.org>, Agostinho Garcia <agostinh...@sunbd.pt>
Cc: Thomas Sarkisian <tsark...@globalcoral.org>, Cliff Juillerat <cliff...@icloud.com>, Dan Millison <danmi...@gmail.com>
Subject: How to grow beaches back on atoll islands with solar electricity

Applicable to all tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean coastlines:

 

https://www.globalcoral.org/electrifying-coralline-algae-to-regenerate-white-sand-beaches-and-eroding-islands-against-climate-change/

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edit/10.1201/b14314/innovative-methods-marine-ecosystem-restoration-robert-kent-trench-thomas-goreau

 

On the Nature of Things: The Scientific Photography of Fritz Goro

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

 

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

 

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

 

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[Aria Mckenna]

Merry christmas everyone! 

Grateful to this group and everyone's passion for creating a safe climate.  

(Please excuse typos and talk to text! 😆 - Sacrificing email perfection to optimize productivity and health!)

Warmest Thanks For Everything You Do,
Aria McKenna
Brand: "Saving Planet Us"
🙏🥰🩵🌏💦🐋🫒🦋🙌

www.SavingPlanetUs.com

Writer, Producer, Climate Communicator
Global Cooling Productions
www.GlobalCoolingProductions.com

Creator (Script)
REVOLUTION EARTH
(Romantic Political Suspense w/ a touch of Futuristic Fantasy for Streaming TV)

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aria-mckenna

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Host: www.preventing2degrees.org

Watch My 'BECOMING THE CHANGE' Roundtable at:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=C472MxNDzZM&si=pPYMnQW0YxCPaTUH

Creating a Safe Climate at Healthy Planet Action Coalition:
www.HealthyPlanetAction.org

   

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