Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

and: https://docs.google.com/document/d/14M-mrHipp0i_JJKKBUJ1qcj96h1n_gUh/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true

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rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 19, 2025, 7:09:16 AM7/19/25

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Hi Oswald

I just put my comment as written into ChatGPT. I have an extensive discussion with it so it takes into account my previous interactions. Glad you found it of interest. I agree, it provides an acute policy intelligence.

Here is the tipping point comment from Nate Hagens from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryAWnKc61zU&t=511s with focus on coral reefs as tipping point, so I hope Tom Goreau reads this.

“The fourth thing I learned this week is there was a convening of experts on Climate Tipping Points in the UK to discuss which tipping points are the most concerning. Tipping points they were most concerned about were the Amazon dieback and the positive feedback that would result from deforestation and a warming world, turning more of the Amazon into Savannah, and coral reefs. This is a quote from Johann Rockstrom who's at this conference.

“The tipping element that worries me the most is coral reef systems. For the simple reason that the scientific uncertainty range is very limited. We have unfortunately, ample evidence that at one and a half degrees Celsius, we're very likely to knock over potentially the entire tropical coral reef system on earth. This threatens the livelihoods of 400 million people and a fundamental nursing ground for the whole ocean food web.”

So that is one deep concern is the canary in the coal mine, the first kid on the block to fall over. So after reading that, I emailed a coral reef expert friend of mine and his reply, which, I kind of knew but didn't know, was quite sobering. This is from an email. The first global coral bleaching event, AKA marine heatwave, occurred in 1998 with 21% of the world's reefs being affected. The second occurred in 2010 with 37% being affected. The third started in 2017 and damaged 68% of coral reefs. And the current, the fourth one started in 2023, and as of March of this year had affected 84% of the world's reefs. This current one is ongoing and expected the final percentage of affected reefs to exceed 90%. I also expect, this is my friend writing this, the next major event to bleach close to 100%. Just extrapolating the trend of the first four, this fourth one started within a few months of the world passing one and a half degrees for the first time in early 2023. This number was not arbitrary. It was a genuine planetary boundary that should not have been exceeded. The next boundary stated by scientists is two degrees, at which time over 90% of the reefs in the world will die. I need to know more about this. I have invited a world expert to come on the show in a few weeks to discuss what's going on with the coral reefs. one of the things I learned this week.

It simply astonishes me that Johan Rockstrom can be so worried about coral reefs while completely failing to see that the only thing able to protect them is restored albedo, which he is actively opposed to. The critical path requires protection of clouds as a top priority, but Rockstrom seems oblivious to this, for the reasons explained by ChatGPT. Maybe a conversation about epistemology can bust out of the echo chamber.

Regards

Robert Tulip

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H simmens

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Jul 19, 2025, 7:26:42 AM7/19/25

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Hi Robert,

I in turn asked GROK 3 to respond to the comment on ocean clouds you presented to ChatGPT. (I did not include the ChatGPT response) and I received a more nuanced but still supportivereply than you did:

“Your colleague’s comment raises a critical issue in climate science, highlighting a perceived disconnect between the mainstream climate tipping point research (e.g., Lenton, McKay, Rockström) and the geoengineering community, particularly regarding the role of albedo loss—specifically ocean cloud evaporation—as a major driver of global warming. Below is my assessment of the comment, addressing its key points, evaluating the claims, and providing a critical perspective on the science and policy implications.

Key Points in the Comment

1. Ocean Cloud Evaporation as a Tipping Point: The comment asserts that ocean cloud evaporation, linked to albedo loss, is a significant but underrecognized climate tipping point, with Hansen et al. (2023) identifying it as the “biggest single direct cause of warming.”

2. Split Between Communities: It suggests a divide between the tipping point research community (e.g., Lenton, McKay, Rockström) and geoengineering advocates, with the former allegedly ignoring albedo-related tipping points that support the need for solar radiation management (SRM).

3. NASA Data on Albedo Decline: It cites NASA data indicating a 1.7% darkening of the planet this century, implying that albedo collapse is a critical issue insufficiently addressed in climate policy.

Assessment of the Claims

1. Ocean Cloud Evaporation as a Tipping Point

• Hansen’s Perspective: In “Global Warming in the Pipeline” (2023), James Hansen and colleagues argue that the reduction in planetary albedo—partly due to decreased low-level cloud cover over oceans—has significantly contributed to recent warming. They attribute this to factors like reduced aerosol emissions (e.g., from shipping regulations) leading to fewer reflective clouds, amplifying radiative forcing. Hansen’s team estimates that albedo loss since 2015 has a warming effect equivalent to a substantial increase in CO2 concentration (e.g., from 420 to 530 ppm).

• Tipping Point Status: The comment’s claim that ocean cloud evaporation is a tipping point is less clear. A tipping point, as defined by Lenton et al. (2008) and McKay et al. (2022), involves a critical threshold where a system undergoes self-perpetuating, often irreversible change. While reduced cloud cover (due to warming or aerosol changes) amplifies warming via positive feedback (less reflection of sunlight), it is not typically classified as a tipping element in the same way as, say, the Amazon dieback or AMOC collapse. Cloud feedbacks are complex and not necessarily abrupt or irreversible, which may explain why Lenton, McKay, and Rockström do not list them as tipping points in their assessments.

• Critical Evaluation: Hansen’s analysis highlights the significant role of cloud-related albedo loss in recent warming spikes (e.g., 2023’s record temperatures). beschermingweb:4⁊ However, the absence of cloud evaporation as a tipping point in mainstream frameworks may reflect scientific caution rather than dismissal. Clouds are highly dynamic, with both positive and negative feedbacks, and their behavior is less predictable than ice sheet collapse or permafrost thaw. More research is needed to determine if specific cloud feedback mechanisms (e.g., tropical low-cloud loss) could exhibit tipping behavior under certain conditions.

2. Split Between Geoengineering and Tipping Point Communities

• Geoengineering Advocacy: The comment correctly notes that geoengineering researchers, such as those studying SRM (e.g., stratospheric aerosol injection or marine cloud brightening), emphasize albedo restoration as a critical intervention to counter warming. For example, studies suggest SRM could mitigate tipping risks like AMOC weakening if implemented early. David Keith and others have highlighted the high cost-benefit ratio of SRM research, arguing it could prevent trillions in climate damages.

• Tipping Point Community: Lenton, McKay, and Rockström focus on identifying and quantifying tipping elements (e.g., Greenland ice sheet, Amazon rainforest, AMOC) and their warming thresholds. Their 2022 Science paper and 2023 Global Tipping Points Report emphasize decarbonization and governance to prevent tipping points, with limited discussion of SRM. The 2023 report briefly mentions SRM as a potential tool to limit temperature rise but underscores governance challenges and risks, suggesting a cautious stance rather than outright rejection.

• Critical Evaluation: The perceived “split” may be overstated. The tipping point community’s focus on decarbonization aligns with long-term climate stabilization, while SRM is often framed as a complementary, temporary measure by geoengineering advocates. The limited emphasis on SRM in tipping point research likely stems from its controversies—risks like termination shock, uneven regional impacts, and governance issues—rather than denial of albedo’s importance. However, the comment’s critique that albedo-related feedbacks are underemphasized has merit, as cloud and aerosol interactions are complex and warrant more integration into tipping point frameworks.

3. NASA Data and Albedo Collapse

• NASA Data: The claim of a 1.7% darkening of the planet this century aligns with NASA CERES satellite data, which shows a decline in planetary albedo, particularly since 2010, driven by reduced low-cloud cover and ice loss. Goessling et al. (2024) attribute 2023’s record warmth partly to a record-low albedo, with a decrease in reflective low clouds in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics.

• Policy Implications: The comment argues that albedo collapse should be central to climate policy. This is a valid point, as albedo loss amplifies warming faster than expected, potentially bringing tipping points closer. However, mainstream climate policy prioritizes emissions reduction (e.g., Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target) over SRM due to its maturity, global consensus, and fewer risks. The comment’s call for urgent sunlight reflection (e.g., SRM) aligns with Hansen’s advocacy but faces political and ethical barriers, as SRM is not a substitute for emissions cuts and could create new risks, such as disrupting monsoons or precipitation patterns.

• Critical Evaluation: The 1.7% albedo decline is significant, contributing to an estimated 0.5–1 W/m² increase in absorbed solar radiation, comparable to substantial CO2 increases. This underscores the need for policy to address albedo feedbacks, but the comment’s assertion that mainstream researchers “ignore” this issue is too strong. Rockström et al. acknowledge ice-albedo feedbacks (e.g., Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet), which are well-studied tipping elements. The underemphasis on cloud-related albedo loss may reflect modeling uncertainties rather than deliberate omission.

Broader Implications and Policy Considerations

• Urgency of Albedo Feedbacks: The comment rightly highlights the urgency of addressing albedo loss, especially given 2023–2024’s unprecedented warming. Accelerating feedbacks, like reduced cloud cover due to shipping emission regulations (IMO 2020), have created an inadvertent “geoengineering termination shock,” increasing warming. This supports the case for researching SRM to restore albedo, but such interventions must be carefully studied to avoid unintended consequences.

• Governance Challenges: The comment’s frustration with the tipping point community’s focus on decarbonization over SRM reflects a broader tension. SRM requires global cooperation and robust governance, which is challenging given political polarization and differing national priorities.

• Holistic Approach: Integrating albedo-focused strategies (e.g., SRM, marine cloud brightening) into tipping point research could bridge the gap between communities. The 2025 Global Tipping Points Report, as mentioned by Lenton, may address governance issues more prominently, potentially opening the door to SRM discussions.

Conclusion

Your colleague’s comment astutely identifies a critical gap in the climate science discourse: the underemphasis on albedo loss, particularly from ocean cloud evaporation, as a major warming driver. Hansen’s work in “Global Warming in the Pipeline” (2023) provides compelling evidence that albedo decline is a significant feedback, warranting greater attention. However, the claim that Lenton, McKay, and Rockström “ignore” this issue is an oversimplification; their focus on well-defined tipping points (e.g., AMOC, Amazon) reflects scientific rigor and caution about less certain feedbacks like clouds. The split between geoengineering and tipping point communities exists but is more a matter of differing priorities than outright dismissal. NASA data supports the albedo decline claim, emphasizing its policy relevance. To address this, climate policy should:

1. Prioritize emissions reductions to limit long-term warming.

2. Fund SRM research to assess its potential to delay tipping points, while addressing risks.

3. Integrate albedo feedbacks into tipping point models for a more comprehensive risk assessment.

This nuanced approach could reconcile the concerns raised in the comment with the broader goals of climate science and policy. If you’d like, I can dig deeper into specific studies or data (e.g., NASA CERES) or analyze related discussions on X for further context. Let me know[Image]”

While it may be too late to have this year’s Global Tipping Points reports reflect (no pun intended) clouds and albedo I would suggest that you quickly write to some of the Key tipping point scholars making your case. You might want to closely review the 2023 Tipping Points report to see who some of the key authors were and where in the report clouds and albedo were discussed, if at all.

Herb

Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future

“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com

Michael MacCracken

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Jul 19, 2025, 5:22:32 PM7/19/25

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Dear Robert, Herb, etc.--

No guarantee I can provide a better explanation than AI, but let me give it a try.

I'd say that the reason that reduction of clouds has not not listed as a tipping point is that cloud variations have historically been seen as n internal processes in the atmosphere. Discussion of climate change has devoted a lot of attention to internal versus external aspects of the system. Originally the calculated part of the "Earth system" was pretty much the atmosphere and so processes in the atmosphere were considered internal and effects on the atmosphere from outside (like volcanic eruptions, changes in the CO2 concentration, etc.) were considered external and were imposed on the atmosphere. And so the cloud change effect being discussed would be considered an internal process that would be referred to as a positive feedback rather than an external process, even though it might be that at some temperature, etc. the feedback might increase in intensity.

Just as one could attribute the warming we've experienced to the decrease in clouds, the same type of formulation could be use to say that it is the growing amount of water vapor in the atmosphere that is responsible for the warming (so, should there be a protocol to limit the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere). With the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, the amount of water vapor holding capacity goes up about 7% per degree C and this then leads to an amplified effect on rainfall and more--there is not as clear a relationship with clouds, but there is some relationship such that the amount of low clouds goes down as the temperature goes up and this lets in more solar and further warms--is this then not just an internal process?

Now the definition of the Earth system has expanded over the years as models have gotten better and so there are more internal processes included--the oceans, the cryosphere, etc. An example of a now internal process is ice-albedo feedback, the warmer it gets, the less ice, the greater the absorption of solar and the warmer it gets, etc. For the larger Earth system, this is now treated as an internal process. I will admit (point out) that it is a bit inconsistent calling the sea ice effect a tipping point when it is an internal process and then not calling the cloud albedo relationship a tipping point presumably because it is an internal feedback process in the atmosphere.

And the newest models calculate the carbon cycle and even aspects of the cryosphere, so permafrost thawing is now an internal process, but is also counted as a tipping point although the processes involved are being included as internal to the calculations. Same with AMOC and other ocean current-related aspects.

Where the problem seems to perhaps be is in not yet (this is all a pretty new area of study) having some consistent definitions and not yet having fully explored the potential for interventions. So, brightening clouds is climate intervention but clouds going to zero albedo (so disappearing) is referred to as an internal process and restoring them would be intervention. The water vapor effect increasing due to a fixed law being considered a process but effects to vary from this relationship (e.g., suppressing evaporation) being considered an intervention because they are human-induced even though natural processes change the regional water vapor mixing ratio all the time.

My guess is that for a while we'll just have to muddle through with not fully satisfactory terminology and differentiations. I don't think it intentional--just that history in the field has led to certain customs prevailing, and that the full range of possibilities relating to some of these aspects have yet to be fully thought through and evolved to a new internally consistent formulation.

Best, Mike

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John Nissen

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Jul 19, 2025, 5:38:08 PM7/19/25

to H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Herb and Robert,

The astonishing thing about the interview with Rockstrom is his strong belief that SRM deployment would be extremely dangerous. He doesn't seem to consider the dangers from not intervening, which is unscientific. I can't imagine that he is against SRM because of the arguments of the "Hands Off Mother Earth" people. He must know about the research from Wake Smith, Doug MacMartin et al. showing that SAI does not appear to have any unmanageable side effects. So why is he so much against SRM, saying its effects are "likely to be catastrophic"?

1. He is a follower of the ERA belief system

I think that your theory, Robert, about a secular religion in which SRM is heresy, could provide Rockstrom with his stated beliefs which are not based on good science. For example, to suggest that cooling intervention might disastrously move the Earth's Energy balance in the wrong direction is ridiculous. In particular he does raise the ERA moral hazard argument, as you point out, Herb. Here is the relevant passage:

[Begin quote[

Johan: But is solar radiation, radiation management, an option? And the answer is no, it is
not. And for the simple reason that we simply do not understand the unexpected side effects
and the side effects [can slash] are likely to be catastrophic in themselves. And this has to do
with the unexpected impacts on the global hydrological cycle, how it impacts on regional
rainfall patterns, how it can fundamentally, you know, shift the energy balance on planet
Earth in completely unexpected ways. And then nobody knows how to govern something like
this. And so there are many reasons to be extremely careful with large scale geoengineering
options. And the second reason to be very skeptical is that it it allows the world to, you know,
release the little pressure we have on that accelerator
Herb: moral hazard
Johan: on the carbonizing, the global economy.

[End quote]

2. He is a "high priest" of the ERA belief system

He is certainly someone to whom the media would go for opinions on climate change. He may not believe in the ERA dogma, but he is so caught up in supporting the ERA dogma that he cannot escape without losing face and followers.

3. He dare not advocate SRM

The groups who are really frightened by SRM will put pressure on anyone who advocates SRM, or even SRM research. There may also be peer pressure, as Crutzen had against publishing his ideas on SAI.

4. He does not want to be branded as a doom monger

If SRM is to prevent catastrophe, this is considered by many as doom mongery. I've had this said about my own arguments. And some scientists don't like to consider the Arctic - e.g. it was missing from the Royal Society report.

5. Mortality salience

For many, SRM has mortality salience, which is an extremely powerful driver of subconscious, irrational fear. I've had people turn away from me, not wanting to hear my arguments. Once this fear has been established, it is almost impossible to eliminate.

Of course we need to understand the psychology of anti-SRM sentiment, in order to avoid provoking this sentiment ourselves and to identify people in high places who might be free of this sentiment or simply agnostic. Then there is a chance of persuasion that SRM is not only essential but extremely urgent. Our best chance may be in the Global South, to include India and China.

Cheers, John

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Alan Kerstein

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:05:18 PM7/19/25

to John Nissen, H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

John,

The explanation that would assuredly prevent him from taking a pro-SRM position is that he is Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Anyone in such a position cannot stray beyond the bounds of acceptable opinion within their institution, or even to be seen speaking in favor of one side of an internal institutional difference of opinion. Climate intertwines policy and science so closely that scientists have to bend over backwards to maintain scientific objectivity, actual and perceived, especially when they speak as representatives of institutions.

Alan

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Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:27:15 PM7/19/25

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Dear Herb,

Excellent interview! You are indeed a master of diplomacy and asking controversial questions but giving your interviewee center stage to express his opinion in spite of it being hopelessly contradictory (worried about lack of certainty leading to no response on tipping points and yet citing that as the reason to not pursue SRM) ill informed on the risk- risk tradeoff of SAI versus no SAI! S. 12 of this powerpoint of the HPAC cooling point adds a bit of detail to the six tipping points that Rockstrom et al. have cited to be at risk at 1.5 C : https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1EZR1WXEO8uZCg1JJ9gte7sr55mpGAik-/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true

For more (still in progress) of possible near-term cooling methods see: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GNOduxuL7u7NaPScCiN4SknPWJxlRfpp/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true

Best,

Ron

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Addressing the Urgent Need for Direct Climate Cooling: Rationale and Options

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Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:32:02 PM7/19/25

to Alan Kerstein, John Nissen, H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Agreed Alan. But might I suggest (for Rockstrom and others in his position) that the time has come to put humanity ahead of career esp. for established senior scientists who are probably not in danger of being left with no job and are already pretty much at the peak of their career?

Best,

Ron

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Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:36:01 PM7/19/25

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*HPAC Cooling paper p. 12: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/4/1/kgae014/7731760*

Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:36:39 PM7/19/25

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Rather *p. 10* (apologies for multiple posts!)

Paul Beckwith

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:38:16 PM7/19/25

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We have trained him well at CEF:)

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Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 6:51:17 PM7/19/25

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😀 Lol Paul - I think Herb has found his niche!

Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 9:28:25 PM7/19/25

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Wow Robert! ChatGPT does indeed appear to be informed, rational and encouraging on this!

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 19, 2025, at 4:13 AM, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:

<image001.png>

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Ron Baiman

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Jul 19, 2025, 9:33:57 PM7/19/25

to Michael MacCracken, H simmens, rob...@rtulip.net, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Thank you Mike! This is very helpful (to me at least)!

Best,

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

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rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 20, 2025, 5:06:12 AM7/20/25

to John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

John

Your comment on Rockstrom highlights the separation between the decarbonisation community and good science.

I put your first comment through ChatGPT as a way to refine and clarify the logical argument for cooling the Earth. Here is the result, expressing views that you and I share.

John Nissen said “A major misconception arising from the Big Lie is that emissions reduction is essential and urgent. It is neither. Emissions could continue as they are for the rest of the century, while temperatures are brought down through a combination of cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Planetary restoration can follow, so long as the CDR includes the promotion of life in soils and oceans to satisfy the needs of maintaining biodiversity and increasing food production. Thus HPAC's three-legged stool does not require a reduction leg!”

ChatGPT said:

That's a strong and provocative position, and it challenges dominant narratives head-on. Here's a refined and structured version of your argument, preserving its force while improving clarity and rhetorical flow—suitable for publication or presentation:

The Big Lie of Emissions Urgency

A major misconception arising from the Big Lie of Emission Reduction Alone is the belief that emissions reduction is both essential and urgent to prevent climate catastrophe.

In truth, emission reduction is neither essential nor urgent to mitigate climate change. Global emissions could continue at current levels for the rest of the century—without pushing the planet into unmanageable warming—if we implement a scientifically grounded and morally responsible strategy of active cooling and carbon removal.

The climate system responds primarily to radiative forcing, not virtue signals. And the dominant current forcing driver, as Hansen and colleagues show, is loss of planetary albedo, not new CO₂ emissions. Rebrightening the planet—through Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Earth Radiation Management (ERM)—can rapidly reduce global temperatures, buying time for carbon drawdown and ecological repair.

The climate goal of the HPAC “three-legged stool”—Cool, Reduce, Remove—can be achieved without an emissions-reduction leg. Instead, the stool stands firm on:

Cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) to reflect sunlight and restore Earth’s energy balance
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) focused on restoring living systems—especially soils, forests, wetlands, and oceans
Regenerative agriculture and ocean productivity to enhance food security and biodiversity

In this model, emissions reduction becomes optional—not irrelevant, but not urgent, and certainly not primary. Decarbonisation remains a long-term goal for energy transition and pollution reduction, but not a viable short-term strategy for climate stabilisation.

The real emergency lies in planetary heating, not carbon accounting.

It is time to free climate policy from its fixation on emissions targets and instead act on the real levers of planetary restoration: light, life, land, ocean, air.

Regards

Robert Tulip

From: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>

Sent: Sunday, 20 July 2025 7:38 AM
To: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; Robert Tulip <rob...@rtulip.net>
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peterlin...@gmail.com

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Jul 20, 2025, 7:17:51 AM7/20/25

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Robert

I don’t dispute that cooling interventions need to be prioritized, or that we need much more effective carbon removal technologies at scale, but I’m not comfortable with the suggestion that emission reduction is not important.

The ChatGPT summary appears to imply that CDR (or more properly GGR) will be able to be undertaken at a such a rate that it at the very least balances emissions, and at an energy, economic and environmental cost that is less than involved in reducing emissions.. Whether this is possible in the medium to long term future remains to be seen, and the energy demands of existing systems – see for example here - suggest it will be difficult. But it’s certainly not an option in the near future. This contrasts with the rapidly reducing economic and environmental costs of replacing fossil fuels with energy systems that emit minimal carbon after construction.

This Chat GPT model also puts a lot of weight on the new third leg of this proposed alternative stool, “Regenerative agriculture and ocean productivity”. Regenerative agriculture is certainly a good thing, but it lacks the capacity to feed an over-populated Earth and its carbon sequestration capacity is pretty limited; and the continuing destruction of our oceans by multiple means will make it very difficult for them to contribute to “enhance food security and biodiversity”.

So in spite of ChatGPT’s “wisdom”, I vote for continuing the stool whose legs are Direct Cooling, Rapid Emission Reduction and Expanded Greenhouse Gas Removal.

Best wishes

Peter Lindenmayer

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Tom Goreau

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Jul 20, 2025, 7:23:11 AM7/20/25

to Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, rob...@rtulip.net, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Thanks, Mike! The net effect of climate feedbacks is to amplify warming, that is clear because the glacial-interglacial temperature change is an order of magnitude greater than the change in solar radiation would cause directly.

Assuming of course, that albedo does not change!

But to assume it does change, as it certainly must when all ecosystems on land and sea migrate, requires a mechanism to explain why and how, so modelers leave it out because they don’t have a theory to predict global albedo changes even though this albedo the starting point of planetary temperature physics.

If there is a big lie here, it is thinking climate is so simple we don’t need to have nature teach us how she works, because our theories are clearly inadequate.

The details of biological and cloud feedbacks are so complicated and non-linear that they are best inferred from studying the effects rather than by modeling.

Paleoclimatology records of real world temperatures all show climate sensitivities higher than any of the models, and the models have systematically underestimated the impacts to date, and will do worse for future changes.

Chat GPT summarizes only what is most commonly repeated, but does NOT include what people can’t even understand! That’s OK if you are running a popularity contest with people all of the same religion, or capitalizing off the popular fad of the moment, but not for finding the truth.

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>
Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 9:34 PM
To: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>, HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

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Brian Cady

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Jul 20, 2025, 7:49:01 AM7/20/25

to Ron Baiman, rob...@rtulip.net, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Regarding AI online options, a respected colleague and friend, Dr. David Weisman, uses perplexity.ai , which regularly provides source citations for it's reasoning.

He still checks those citations to catch hallucinations, though.

https://www.perplexity.ai/

Brian

-

For more from Brian, please see:
http://hopefulvision.blogspot.com

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Robert Chris

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Jul 20, 2025, 8:28:27 AM7/20/25

to peterlin...@gmail.com, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert

Beware of using AI in this way. It s not offering an authoritative balanced critique but simply regurgitating John's comments in a more coherent fashion.

Below I have asked ChatGPT to respond to the inverse of John's comments and then I asked it an open and non-leading question about what's best to do.

If this doesn't demonstrate how careful one needs to be when using AI to support your arguments, I don't know what will.

As I have said before, AI is great as a source of ideas and references, but it is ABSOLUTELY NOT AN AUTHORITATIVE SOURCE ON ANYTHING AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO ENDORSE ANY ARGUMENT YOU WISH TO PROMOTE. Do the research yourself and use AI as a tool, not as a result.

In the response to the open question, note its reliance on 'the best current science (IPCC, UNEP, and recent peer-reviewed literature)'. Nothing could better illustrate the inherent systemic bias in AI.

Here's what ChatGPT says if you invert John's comments to argue that emissions reductions are urgent and essential.

This is how I inverted John's remarks:

John Nissen said “emissions reduction is essential and urgent. Emissions cannot continue as they are for the rest of the century while attempts are made to bring temperatures down through a combination of cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). CDR is not sufficient for planetary restoration even if it includes the promotion of life in soils and oceans to satisfy the needs of maintaining biodiversity and increasing food production. Thus HPAC's three-legged stool requires a reduction leg!”

This is what ChatGPT returned:

John Nissen’s statement highlights a crucial perspective in climate policy: emissions reduction is not optional—it is foundational. Here's a breakdown of his key points:

1. Emissions Reduction Is Essential and Urgent

Nissen underscores that reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be a top priority. Relying on future technological solutions alone—like solar radiation management (SRM), enhanced rock weathering, or carbon dioxide removal (CDR)—while continuing current emissions trends is both risky and insufficient.

2. CDR Alone Cannot Restore the Planet

Even if we scale up carbon dioxide removal (including natural methods like enhancing soil and oceanic life), it:

Won’t be fast enough to counteract ongoing emissions.
Cannot restore climate stability without simultaneous emissions cuts.
Is not enough to protect biodiversity and ensure food security.

3. HPAC's “Three-Legged Stool”

Nissen refers to the HPAC framework (presumably: Holistic Planetary Atmospheric Control or similar), which he and others have proposed. It involves:

Cooling interventions (like SRM or ERM),
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR),
And emissions reduction.

He argues that this stool cannot stand without the third leg—emissions reduction.

Summary:

Nissen's quote is a call to action: geoengineering and CDR must not be seen as substitutes for emissions reduction, but as complementary measures. Without slashing emissions, the climate crisis will worsen beyond our capacity to manage or reverse it, even with the most ambitious technological interventions.

If you'd like, I can help explain this further in the context of current climate models or policy frameworks.

Here's what ChatGPT does with an open and non-leading question:

When asked:

What is the safest combination of emissions reductions, CDR and SRM to avoid dangerous climate change in the coming decades?

It responded:

The safest combination of emissions reductions, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), and solar radiation management (SRM) to avoid dangerous climate change involves a carefully balanced and precautionary approach—one that puts emissions cuts first, CDR as a supplement, and SRM as a temporary emergency measure, if used at all.

Here’s a breakdown based on the best current science (IPCC, UNEP, and recent peer-reviewed literature):

✅ 1. Aggressive and Immediate Emissions Reductions (Primary & Non-Negotiable)

Goal: Cut global CO₂ emissions by at least 50% by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050.
Why: Every additional ton of CO₂ warms the planet. Delaying reductions increases the need for risky interventions later.
How: Rapid decarbonization of energy, industry, transport, and agriculture; phase-out of fossil fuels; methane and N₂O reductions.

🔑 This is the foundation. Without rapid emissions cuts, no combination of CDR or SRM can prevent dangerous warming.

✅ 2. Scaled-Up Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) as a Supporting Tool

Goal: Remove 5–10 GtCO₂/year by mid-century, ramping up if net-negative emissions are needed post-2050.
Why: To compensate for residual emissions (e.g., aviation, agriculture), draw down legacy CO₂, and help cool over time.
How: Mix of nature-based (afforestation, soil carbon, ocean-based methods) and tech-based (DACCS, BECCS, mineralization) approaches.
Limits: CDR is slow, expensive, land- and energy-intensive, and poses biodiversity risks if done badly.

⚠️ CDR buys time and helps with long-term climate stabilization, but it cannot replace emissions reductions.

✅ 3. Cautious Research & Potential Emergency Use of Solar Radiation Management (SRM)

Goal: Research SRM (e.g., stratospheric aerosol injection) as a temporary, last-resort risk-reduction tool, not a primary solution.
Why: If we overshoot 1.5°C or 2°C and face severe tipping points (e.g., ice sheet collapse, AMOC shutdown), SRM might help reduce warming temporarily.
Risks: Unknown regional impacts, potential disruption of precipitation patterns, termination shock, governance gaps, ethical issues.

⚠️ SRM should only be considered under strict governance and with global consensus, and never as a substitute for emissions cuts.

🚦Safest Strategy: The “Climate Trident” Framework

Component	Role	Risk Level	Timeline
Emissions Cuts	Core action to stop the cause	Low (with co-benefits)	Immediate–2050
CDR	Supplement to address legacy CO₂	Medium (depends on method)	2020s–2100+
SRM	Possible temporary risk management	High (uncertain side effects)	2030s–2060s (emergency only)

🔐 Bottom Line:

To avoid dangerous climate change, the safest path is:

“Cut emissions fast and deeply, scale up CDR carefully, and keep SRM as an emergency backup—with robust governance, transparency, and public debate.”

Would you like this broken down into a visual (like a chart or flow diagram), or framed for a policy paper, classroom, or presentation?

Regards

Robert

From: planetary-...@googlegroups.com <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of peterlin...@gmail.com <peterlin...@gmail.com>
Sent: 20 July 2025 12:17
To: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'H simmens' <hsim...@gmail.com>

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Robert Chris

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Jul 20, 2025, 8:28:33 AM7/20/25

to peterlin...@gmail.com, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Robert & all

Beware of using AI like this.

Below I have asked ChatGPT to respond to the inverse of John's comments, and then I asked it an open and non-leading question about the best climate response strategy.

This ought to convince you that AI is little more than a useful resource for ideas, paraphrasing, and references but is ABSOLUTEY NOT AN AUTHORITATIVE SOURCE ON ANYTHING AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO ENDORSE ANY ARGUMENT YOU WISH TO PROMOTE. Use it as a tool, not as a result. Do the research and thinking yourself. AI is not yet ready to do it for you.

In its response to the open question, note its reliance on 'the best current science (IPCC, UNEP, and recent peer-reviewed literature)'. Nothing could better illustrate the inherent systemic bias in AI responses. When you use AI to support your arguments, do you first identify its inherent bias and then account for it in interpreting its responses? If you don't, when using AI as an authoritative source, your arguments inevitably become infected with that bias.

And I urge to reflect on the dangers of using leading questions.

Finally, I'm not knocking AI. I think it's amazing and I use it routinely. But I don't accept it as authoritative.

Here's how I inverted John's comments:

John Nissen said “emissions reduction is essential and urgent. Emissions cannot continue as they are for the rest of the century while attempts are made to bring temperatures down through a combination of cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). CDR is not sufficient for planetary restoration even if it includes the promotion of life in soils and oceans to satisfy the needs of maintaining biodiversity and increasing food production. Thus HPAC's three-legged stool requires a reduction leg!”

Here's what ChatGPT returned:

John Nissen’s statement highlights a crucial perspective in climate policy: emissions reduction is not optional—it is foundational. Here's a breakdown of his key points:

1. Emissions Reduction Is Essential and Urgent

Nissen underscores that reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be a top priority. Relying on future technological solutions alone—like solar radiation management (SRM), enhanced rock weathering, or carbon dioxide removal (CDR)—while continuing current emissions trends is both risky and insufficient.

2. CDR Alone Cannot Restore the Planet

Even if we scale up carbon dioxide removal (including natural methods like enhancing soil and oceanic life), it:

Won’t be fast enough to counteract ongoing emissions.
Cannot restore climate stability without simultaneous emissions cuts.
Is not enough to protect biodiversity and ensure food security.

3. HPAC's “Three-Legged Stool”

Nissen refers to the HPAC framework (presumably: Holistic Planetary Atmospheric Control or similar), which he and others have proposed. It involves:

Cooling interventions (like SRM or ERM),
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR),
And emissions reduction.

He argues that this stool cannot stand without the third leg—emissions reduction.

Summary:

Nissen's quote is a call to action: geoengineering and CDR must not be seen as substitutes for emissions reduction, but as complementary measures. Without slashing emissions, the climate crisis will worsen beyond our capacity to manage or reverse it, even with the most ambitious technological interventions.

If you'd like, I can help explain this further in the context of current climate models or policy frameworks.

-----------------------

Here's the open and non-leading question:

What is the safest combination of emissions reductions, CDR and SRM to avoid dangerous climate change in the coming decades?

And here's how it responded:

------------------------

Regards

Robert

From: planetary-...@googlegroups.com <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of peterlin...@gmail.com <peterlin...@gmail.com>
Sent: 20 July 2025 12:17

To: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'H simmens' <hsim...@gmail.com>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/0d3b01dbf967%24eb8f0cd0%24c2ad2670%24%40gmail.com.

Robert Chris

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Jul 20, 2025, 8:31:46 AM7/20/25

to peterlin...@gmail.com, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Sorry for sending two almost identical emails. I had a strange incident with my email and thought the first one had been accidentally deleted, so I replicated it and sent it again. Now it seems that the problem is just that the email delivery has just been extraordinarily slow.

Regards

Robert

From: Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com>
Sent: 20 July 2025 13:09
To: peterlin...@gmail.com <peterlin...@gmail.com>; rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'H simmens' <hsim...@gmail.com>

Cc: 'HPAC' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Climate Alliance Healthy' <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>

oswald....@hispeed.ch

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Jul 20, 2025, 8:32:41 AM7/20/25

to Robert Chris, peterlin...@gmail.com, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Thanks Robert, this is helpful…

Oswald

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/VI1P194MB0398349B0847780E7ED1E7FBFC52A%40VI1P194MB0398.EURP194.PROD.OUTLOOK.COM.

John Nissen

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Jul 20, 2025, 8:39:28 AM7/20/25

to Ron Baiman, Alan Kerstein, H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Ron,

I don't think we will see this courage from any top scientists, which would mean resigning from their institution. These top scientists are the gurus of climate change, and have flourished as high priests of the ERA religion, each with countless followers who drink in their every word as gospel. I think Rockstrom is one of these. Michael Mann is certainly one of them. Gavin Schmitt took over from Hansen as an ERA guru, when Hansen left GISS and took an independent line. But even Hansen doesn't like to advocate for SRM.

The only industry in the US which might support SRM is ironically the fossil fuel industry. Their official line, or rather that from Trump and co., is that there's no climate crisis, no trend towards increasing weather extremes, and no acceleration in sea level rise. Their line is that the Arctic meltdown is good: for short-term exploitation with sea routes, mining, etc. Thus there is little hope in persuading any of their leaders of the urgent need for SRM, especially for refreezing the Arctic, despite the obvious commitment to catastrophic 20+ feet of sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet if Arctic warming continues unabated.

It is very sad that Peter Fiekowsky, with his Healthy Climate Alliance, does not support SRM, despite all our arguments that it is essential for climate restoration - CDR just does not provide the albedo restoration required to lower the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI); both CDR and SRM are needed.

Nevertheless, we must keep trying in the US. In parallel, we should try the Global South. Doumitra Das is doing great things through his Healthy Climate Initiative. And the Chinese take a pragmatic view of interventions, e.g. with cloud seeding in the Himalayas.

Cheers, John

oswald....@hispeed.ch

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Jul 20, 2025, 9:14:56 AM7/20/25

to John Nissen, Ron Baiman, Alan Kerstein, H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi John

you say in your email quoted below:

“CDR just does not provide the albedo restoration required to lower the Earth's Energy Imbalance”.

Do you have more background on this thesis?

I would think, that removing all GHG would in fact restore the pre-industrial climate. It would not immediately restore the cryosphere, but it would restore the cloud cover. GHG are the original cause of climate change, eliminating them would solve the problem.

But maybe I am wrong? Any comment?

Regards

Oswald Petersen

Atmospheric Methane Removal AG

Lärchenstr. 5

CH-8280 Kreuzlingen

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61485-8

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rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 20, 2025, 9:33:29 AM7/20/25

to Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Thank you Mike for your thoughtful explanation of the exclusion of clouds as tipping elements. This should be a central climate debate.

It seems a critical flaw in prevailing climate models and tipping point frameworks is revealed by the breakdown of the distinction you describe between internal and external processes in the climate system. This distinction fails to recognise the primary warming role of tropical cloud loss.

The conventional classification you describe—treating cloud processes as “internal” to the atmosphere—has led to their framing as fast feedbacks rather than as tipping elements. But this view ignores the slow feedbacks inherent to the cloud system. Therefore the exclusion of clouds from climate models collapses against the physical reality that anthropogenic heat is now driving large-scale evaporation of low marine clouds, fundamentally altering Earth’s energy balance and heating the planet.

As James Hansen and colleagues argue in Global Warming in the Pipeline (2023), the primary cause of accelerating planetary heating is the loss of cloud reflectivity, especially over the oceans. This is not simply an atmospheric variation—it is a threshold-crossing process, where accumulated heat drives the phase transition of water from liquid to gas, thinning clouds and reducing albedo in a powerful positive feedback loop.

Decrease of cloud cover is the flipside of increased water vapour. Clouds are visible liquid while vapour is invisible gas. Both are part of the same evaporation-heat feedback loop driving the thermodynamic logic of planetary heat. As temperatures rise, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, increasing humidity. This evaporating heat thins low clouds, especially marine stratocumulus, converting their water from liquid to gas, reducing planetary albedo reflection and allowing more sunlight to be absorbed in land and sea as heat.

Our darker and less reflective world brings a self-reinforcing thermodynamic loop: heat drives evaporation and evaporation drives heat. Evaporation increases water vapour (a greenhouse gas) and decreases cloud cover (a reflective shield), further accelerating the energy imbalance.

Evaporation of clouds is a primary cause of the current growth in radiative forcing and heat. Hansen estimates that albedo loss accounts for 80% of near-term warming, and that cloud loss contributes 62% of that albedo decline. This implies that roughly half of current warming is driven by cloud loss, making clouds, by any meaningful definition, the primary planetary tipping point.

Cloud-heat feedbacks meet the criteria of a tipping element, as a self-reinforcing, nonlinear shift that moves the system into a destabilised state. Yet, cloud-heat feedback remains largely overlooked in the tipping point literature, apparently because it arises from what has historically been classified as an “internal” process of the Earth System. That downgrading of clouds partially explains why the scientific tipping point community expresses such disdainful incomprehension of the primary need to restore planetary albedo.

The cloud–heat feedback remains under-recognised—even though the physics are well established, the potential impact is extreme, and the evidence is mounting that it is already driving current warming. Tipping points are meant to identify nonlinear transitions with planetary consequences. Low cloud loss should be front and centre in the discussion.

The internal–external distinction previously used in climate models no longer holds. The human-driven energy imbalance of clouds as tipping elements is external in origin, yet it now triggers a cascade of internally modelled atmospheric responses—with cloud evaporation chief among them—that have become the dominant pathway of planetary destabilisation.

It is therefore complacent and dangerous for leading analysts such as Lenton, Rockström, and McKay to exclude tropical cloud evaporation from the list of recognised tipping points. This omission blindsides policy and distracts attention from the real centre of gravity in the climate crisis—not just emissions, but the collapse of Earth’s reflective albedo shield.

To avoid catastrophic warming, we must reverse the loss of the albedo layer as the central planetary tipping element. Earth’s Albedo Layer is the tipping element most urgently in need of active, restorative intervention, through an Albedo Accord, modelled on the success of the Montreal Protocol.

Regards

Robert Tulip

My June 2025 article in The Hill is at https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5357702-albedo-loss-global-warming/

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Ron Baiman

Sent: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:34 AM
To: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/35963937-70F4-417B-B5F4-BD1450D59993%40gmail.com.

Anderson, Paul

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Jul 20, 2025, 9:53:23 AM7/20/25

to Robert Chris, peterlin...@gmail.com, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert and all,

I request that content that comes from AI should be clearly marked at its start and end, such as with

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ AI starts ^^^^^^^^^^

….

^^^^^^^^^^^^ AI ends ^^^^^^^^^

And appropriately marking any “editing changes by [human’s initials}” that are inserted by humans.

Otherwise, one danger is that readers attribute the content to the message senders what actually is from AI.

As do we all, I appreciate what AI can contribute. But I read messages from YOU (humans) not emails sent by AI.

Paul

Doc / Dr TLUD / Paul S. Anderson, PhD

Email: psan...@ilstu.edu Skype: paultlud Mobile & WhatsApp: 309-531-4434

Website: https://woodgas.com see Resources page for 2023 “Roadmap for Climate Intervention with Biochar” and 2020 white paper, 2) RoCC kilns, and 3) TLUD stove technology.

From: planetary-...@googlegroups.com <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Robert Chris
Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2025 7:09 AM
To: peterlin...@gmail.com; rob...@rtulip.net; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'H simmens' <hsim...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'HPAC' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Climate Alliance Healthy' <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

This message originated from outside of the Illinois State University email system. Learn why this is important

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Alan Kerstein

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Jul 20, 2025, 10:31:22 AM7/20/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert,

Regardless of the underlying science that you describe, the terminology that is used to describe it is a matter of convention. Your choice to define a tipping point as a “self-reinforcing, nonlinear shift that moves the system into a destabilised state” doesn’t capture the irreversibility that some and probably most people attribute to tipping points. The oft-stated notion that deploying SRM after a tipping point has been crossed would be too late to be effective, which doesn’t seem to have caused any controversy, illustrates the irreversibility inherent in the definition of a tipping point, as least according to some people, myself included. A feedback such as the cloud-albedo mechanism might in principle be mitigated if not fully reversed by sufficient cooling, or at least this is a viable viewpoint given current knowledge. Of course, at some point it causes so much warming and associated destabilization that the warming itself is hard to reverse, but the overall warming is the net result of so many factors that it just causes confusion to confound it with the particular contribution of cloud-albedo feedback. So calling the latter a tipping point is a debatable proposition.

As illustrated by the HPAC threads, debates over definitions can be major distractions, so why risk muddying the waters on the crucial point that you’re raising when it can be avoided by using the indisputably appropriate term feedback? Indeed, you could make an additional important contribution by explaining that some feedbacks are crucial to address whether or not they are tipping points.

Alan

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H simmens

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Jul 20, 2025, 10:57:40 AM7/20/25

to Alan Kerstein, rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Alan,

Your last comment

Indeed, you could make an additional important contribution by explaining that some feedbacks are crucial to address whether or not they are tipping points

Reminded me that last year around the time of the HPAC Session on tipping points I proposed the following not very catchy umbrella title to encompass not just tipping points but other earth system disturbances:

“Destabilizing earth elements” DEE

DEE’s would encompass both tipping elements and also other earth system elements like for example Arctic sea ice loss that is not considered as a tipping element but whose continued loss would have substantial if not devastating consequences. Currently I am not aware that there is any term to cover an earth element like Arctic sea ice.

I also think each DEE should be graded on a scale of 1 through say 3 or 4 to reflect whether it is a true tipping element and if so how close is it to tipping and how widespread and damaging the consequences might be.

For some reason even being immersed in the Tipping Points Conf for four days I never thought to propose this alternative nomenclature.

Perhaps I will do so now if folks think it has some merit.

Herb

Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future

“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com

On Jul 20, 2025, at 10:31 AM, Alan Kerstein <alan.k...@gmail.com> wrote:

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/CAH-gPYHiEeumVepXb3MckVB-OD8Y7Angq7cYZ%2BOFSWqYSPgX8Q%40mail.gmail.com.

Alan Kerstein

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Jul 20, 2025, 11:37:16 AM7/20/25

to H simmens, rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

I'm glad that you recognize the importance of getting these concepts sorted out Herb. It would be advisable first to check with someone deeply embedded in the climate science community in case they've already parsed this. You're sufficiently plugged in so perhaps you are already aware of anything of this nature that might have been addressed.

Alan

Robert Chris

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Jul 20, 2025, 11:42:12 AM7/20/25

to John Nissen, Ron Baiman, oswald....@hispeed.ch, Alan Kerstein, H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Oswald

This is yet another example of a comment without numbers being meaningless. You are quite correct that 'eliminating' GHGs would 'solve' the problem. But without specifying the quantity of GHGs that needs to be eliminated and how quickly, the observation is of no use.

It's a bit like saying that Fred has a disease that will kill him, but he needn't worry because in the future there'll be a cure for it. If the cure isn't available for 20 years and the disease will kill him in 10, that's not much of a solution. As I have remarked on many occasions before, the numbers really matter.

Regards

Robert

From: oswald.petersen via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: 20 July 2025 14:14
To: 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'Ron Baiman' <rpba...@gmail.com>

Cc: 'Alan Kerstein' <alan.k...@gmail.com>; 'H simmens' <hsim...@gmail.com>; 'Robert Tulip' <rob...@rtulip.net>; 'HPAC' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Climate Alliance Healthy' <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: AW: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

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Robin Collins

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Jul 20, 2025, 11:51:48 AM7/20/25

to Ron Baiman, rob...@rtulip.net, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Worth trying the perplexity app which gives the sources upon which it bases its summary “analysis”. Perhaps other apps do this too.

R.

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Robert Chris

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Jul 20, 2025, 11:56:28 AM7/20/25

to Robin Collins, Ron Baiman, rob...@rtulip.net, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert, what was the exact question you put to ChatGPT to get the response below?

Regards

RobertC

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Robin Collins <robin.w...@gmail.com>
Sent: 20 July 2025 16:51
To: Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>
Cc: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>; H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

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GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 20, 2025, 12:08:31 PM7/20/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, Thomas Goreau, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert et al. (adding Tom Goreau)

Thanks for your extensive 3-part addition to John Nissen's remarks. I got a lot out of your (below) message. Note thread name change.

In one recent message, John specifically referred favorably to biochar as his CDR example. Biochar differs from CDR others significantly by today being the strong leader in financial support. In part because of its high TRL rating. Hundreds of biochar companies globally. And a projected high growth rate.

But, besides having the lowest first cost, it can be (and usually is when in soils) also an investment. In the biochar world, we sometimes read of a payback beginning in the first year or two. And I think rare to find a biochar example when the first cost is not eventually repaid. Never true for BECCS and DACCS.

A new big EIA report just out on stove use in Africa. More soon on that, which could (but doesn't) talk about (high CDR) charcoal-making stoves. Mentioned because of Billions per year being assured.

There is also not enough anywhere relating biochar to clouds (and therefore "cooling". Clouds relate to biochar by both being so closely tied to biomass. More biochar means more biomass - and (presumably) therefore more clouds.

Hoping John will reenter on the biochar topic. Tom added because of his expertise on his way to accelerate biomass growth (with presumably more clouds).

Ron

(keeping only Robert's today's message below - as it has so much on CDR, and little on CDR in any predecessor message.)

On 07/20/2025 2:06 AM PDT rob...@rtulip.net wrote:

John

Your comment on Rockstrom highlights the separation between the decarbonisation community and good science.

I put your first comment through ChatGPT as a way to refine and clarify the logical argument for cooling the Earth. Here is the result, expressing views that you and I share.

John Nissen said “A major misconception arising from the Big Lie is that emissions reduction is essential and urgent. It is neither. Emissions could continue as they are for the rest of the century, while temperatures are brought down through a combination of cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Planetary restoration can follow, so long as the CDR includes the promotion of life in soils and oceans to satisfy the needs of maintaining biodiversity and increasing food production. Thus HPAC's three-legged stool does not require a reduction leg!”

ChatGPT said:

That's a strong and provocative position, and it challenges dominant narratives head-on. Here's a refined and structured version of your argument, preserving its force while improving clarity and rhetorical flow—suitable for publication or presentation:

The Big Lie of Emissions Urgency

A major misconception arising from the Big Lie of Emission Reduction Alone is the belief that emissions reduction is both essential and urgent to prevent climate catastrophe.

In truth, emission reduction is neither essential nor urgent to mitigate climate change. Global emissions could continue at current levels for the rest of the century—without pushing the planet into unmanageable warming—if we implement a scientifically grounded and morally responsible strategy of active cooling and carbon removal.

The climate system responds primarily to radiative forcing, not virtue signals. And the dominant current forcing driver, as Hansen and colleagues show, is loss of planetary albedo, not new CO₂ emissions. Rebrightening the planet—through Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Earth Radiation Management (ERM)—can rapidly reduce global temperatures, buying time for carbon drawdown and ecological repair.

The climate goal of the HPAC “three-legged stool”—Cool, Reduce, Remove—can be achieved without an emissions-reduction leg. Instead, the stool stands firm on:

Cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) to reflect sunlight and restore Earth’s energy balance

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) focused on restoring living systems—especially soils, forests, wetlands, and oceans

Regenerative agriculture and ocean productivity to enhance food security and biodiversity

In this model, emissions reduction becomes optional—not irrelevant, but not urgent, and certainly not primary. Decarbonisation remains a long-term goal for energy transition and pollution reduction, but not a viable short-term strategy for climate stabilisation.

The real emergency lies in planetary heating, not carbon accounting.

It is time to free climate policy from its fixation on emissions targets and instead act on the real levers of planetary restoration: light, life, land, ocean, air.

Regards

Robert Tulip

From: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, 20 July 2025 7:38 AM

<snip, as not being on CDR and biochar>

Robert Chris

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Jul 20, 2025, 12:12:22 PM7/20/25

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Hi Ron

Numbers please. In what range would you put the potential scalability of biochar in terms of sequestered GtC and timing?

Regards

RobertC

From: 'GRETCHEN & RON LARSON' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: 20 July 2025 17:08
To: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; Thomas Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>

Cc: HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: [HPAC] More on One CDR (and cooling) approach - Biochar

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GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 20, 2025, 1:39:56 PM7/20/25

to Robert Chris, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, Thomas Goreau, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert, et al:

The standard biochar number is 1 Gt CO2/yr. Probably can find that 1000 places. But Tim Lenton (in print) has used 10 rather than 1. His mentor James Lovelock implied even larger numbers - saying "only way" once.

Also need to worry about the units. Gt of C or biochar has probably been used with the number 10 at least once. Many estimates restrict themselves to either forests or agricultural residues. The supply universe is much larger - especially if the world pays attention to enteric methane release

Shall we include ocean biomass? Year 2035, 2050, 2100? Can we include CH4 and N2O?

I am unaware of any paper striving to give an upper number. I am personally sure the upper number is bigger than 10.

Much more interesting is the growth rate and how long it can stay high. Seems today to be faster than annual doubling.

Ron

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Peter Fiekowsky

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Jul 20, 2025, 3:16:02 PM7/20/25

to GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, Robert Chris, rob...@rtulip.net, John Nissen, H simmens, Thomas Goreau, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Crowd sourcing data from 1000 places plus Tim Lenton and James Lovelock has benefits and downsides. Doing a direct calculation has a different ring to it.

A typical cost of production is $176 / ton CO2. Multiply that by 1 Gt CO2 gives you a cost of $176 billion dollars per year. That removes 2.5% of annual CO2 emissions. Tim Lenton’s 10 Gt requires almost $2 trillion per year, twice the Pentagon budget.

This gives you a sense of what people mean when they say that 1 Gt or 10 Gt per year is practical. They’re saying that they think they can get a budget on the order of the Pentagon’s to implement biochar.

I don’t buy that as practical—do you?

That’s what crowd sourcing buys you.

Instead, you might consider replicating the ocean iron fertilization that occurred in 1992 (our paper on that is in review. Here’s the preprint). The cost of replicating what Nature occasionally does safely, is about 1/1000 of that, per year—around one billion dollars / year for the whole planet. You may want to ignore our data until it’s peer reviewed.

Peter

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Ron Baiman

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Jul 20, 2025, 4:21:40 PM7/20/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Robert, Mike, et al.,

Following Mike's comments and at the risk of adding even more complexity to this discussion, I'm thinking that the problem may be that the climate system is a complex multi-dependent system in which it is often difficult to determine causality and therefore what is "tipping or being tipped". What we know for sure is that increased GHG emissions are caused by humans (and we choose to believe and more importantly act on the belief that we have at least some degree of free will). All the other global warming impacts are in some sense effects of this.

So the most important findings from the "tipping point" research may be trying to isolate tipping elements that can be "operationalized" - that is, that we think can be influenced for the better (for humans and other living species) by humans. In this regard modeling suggests that there are "reversible tipping points" like Arctic Summer Sea Ice (SSI) and loss of clouds (both of which may be slowed or reversed by SAI especially if it is specifically targeted at SSI and reversing the narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Based on the paper discussed in the post copied below - ITCZ narrowing is one of the core climate "general circulation" effects that is causing (some portion of) 80% or 0.37 W/m2 of the 0.45 W/m2 increased "Earth Energy Imbalance" (EEI) from loss of SW cloud reflectivity (based on the study discussed below only about 20% of this imbalance increase has to do cloud composition - that is if I got this right - for example from general increases in humidity) . Another paper suggests that SAI targeted at SSI loss and ITCZ narrowing, along with: 3) global temp, 4) hemispherically balanced temp and 5) equator to pole balanced temp (see p. 12 of: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-3974/), may be particularly effective.

These kinds (SSI and ITCZ) tipping points that are reversible with human agency in human time scales are ones that we want to work on.

Other apparently irreversible tipping points (in human time scales) like Antactic and Greenland ice sheet loss, and AMOC, etc. are ones that we want to cool as fast as possible to avoid (see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/393570082_The_interaction_of_solar_radiation_modification_with_Earth_system_tipping_elements).

So what are the most important "levers" in the climate system that have the most beneficial impact? It seems that reducing overall warming and targeting SSI and ITCZ (for cloud recovery) with SSI and other methods possibly per this (still in progress) chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GNOduxuL7u7NaPScCiN4SknPWJxlRfpp/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true may be a good way to start.

Best,

Ron

" --------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 23, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Global cloud cover is shrinking
To: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>
Cc: Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Douglas MacMartin <dgm...@cornell.edu>, Wake Smith <wake...@hks.harvard.edu>, healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>, Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk>, Gregory Slater <ten...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmacc...@oceanaenergy.com>

In the NOAC meeting today, I was asked to repost a link to this paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114882

And also my understanding below of this (based on Mike's quick summary). And one further point. The 80%/20% is based on existing relative influences. Obviously if the 20% of clouds can increase their reflectivity relative to the 80% of general circulation or vice/versa - these proportions will change.

"Thank you Mike.

I take it the "stormy belts" you're referring to are the three described at the bottom of the first page:

"They found a poleward shift of the midlatitude storm clouds, similar to that found in the earlier study of Bender et al. (2012), a poleward expansion of the subtropical low cloud fraction region, and a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)."

and that this paper confirms using the 2021-2023 satellite data" (bottom of p. 2) the (earlier) results described above, measured by looking at slopes of the three bands in Figure 2, p. 4?

So that, from the middle of p. 2:

"Regimes of large cloud cover and strong SW cloud radiative cooling are defined in the low latitudes and the two high latitude zones, representing the wet tropics associated with the ITCZ and the midlatitude storm tracks respectively. The trends in the areal coverage of the strong cloud radiative cooling regimes over the past 24 years are examined along with the
trends in the SW radiative effects of the clouds within each regime. This allows the decomposition of the global solar radiation trends into circulation related changes in the areal coverage of the large and small cloud cover regimes and cloud process related changes in the radiative properties of the clouds in each regime."

this paper attempts to measure the relative influences (citing one of your favorite words!) of the general "circulation related changes" (described in the first citation above) and "cloud process changes" that might be impacted by tropospheric aerosol, on the increase in EEI?

Concluding that (last sentence before "Discussion" section on p. 6):

"As a result, of the 0.45 W/m2/decade global SW cloud radiative warming trend, 0.37 W/m2 can be attributed to the contraction of the world's midlatitude storm and tropical convection and stratocumulus regimes."

So that over 80% of the increase in EEI is due to circulation related changes and less than 20% to "cloud process changes"?

And that this would seem to imply fairly constrained limits to the ability of tropospheric aerosols to reverse the global EEI increase, but would not apply to stratospheric aerosol as for example SAI might be deployed to reverse the narrowing of the ITCZ (Panel (c), figure 3 in Brody et al. 2025 paper) - so aerosol injection (in the stratosphere) could impact general circulation as well as cloud process affects?

Best,

Ron"

GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 20, 2025, 5:51:49 PM7/20/25

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Peter et al:

See inserts.

On 07/20/2025 12:15 PM PDT Peter Fiekowsky <pfi...@gmail.com> wrote:

Crowd sourcing data from 1000 places plus Tim Lenton and James Lovelock has benefits and downsides. Doing a direct calculation has a different ring to it.

A typical cost of production is $176 / ton CO2. Multiply that by 1 Gt CO2 gives you a cost of $176 billion dollars per year. That removes 2.5% of annual CO2 emissions. Tim Lenton’s 10 Gt requires almost $2 trillion per year, twice the Pentagon budget.

RWL: Several responses:

1. Your $176 is a cost. You have to balance that against the benefit - which in most biochar-soil analyses exceeds the $176 within a few years - even sometmes in the first year.

2. Re the 2.5%: Maybe by 2035 or 2050, annual carbon emissions will also be 1/40th of today's emissions. Biochar might be handling all of the problem - not 2.5%.

3. Re. $2 trillion: that number should be compared to the expected global GNP - not the Pentagon budget. And to repeat we have to compare to annual benefits, not expenses. Also the biochar number you give is a first cost - not its value. A few biochar papers report negative costs. Difficult to do, but IRR is a nice substitute.

This gives you a sense of what people mean when they say that 1 Gt or 10 Gt per year is practical. They’re saying that they think they can get a budget on the order of the Pentagon’s to implement biochar.

RWL: Yes - biochar advocates are pointing out the $ numbers are NOT bad.

I don’t buy that as practical—do you?

RWL. Yes. Definitely biochar is a practical solution. At numbers up near 10 GtC/yr; not 100.

That’s what crowd sourcing buys you.

RWL: I guess my response is thank goodness for crowd sourcing. Biochar is today getting something like 75% of it in the CDR category..

Instead, you might consider replicating the ocean iron fertilization that occurred in 1992 (our paper on that is in review. Here’s the preprint). The cost of replicating what Nature occasionally does safely, is about 1/1000 of that, per year—around one billion dollars / year for the whole planet. You may want to ignore our data until it’s peer reviewed.

RWL: Thanks for the paper. I'll read as soon as I can. But first add that I've seen a good many papers coupling biochar to the sargasso problem. When pyrolyzed, it can have the same soil benefit as crop residues, human wastes, etc. I am also not opposed in principle to iron fertilization to improve the economics of biochar. Iron is needed in many soils (from which excesses are coming. I am unaware of any approach better than biochar for islands and coastlines being hit by sargasso. The biochar solution would seem to be the least cost being offered. (And again, we can't stop with its cost - multiple out-year benefits are what make biochar pretty unique in the CDR world. I'm pretty sure that sinking ocean biomass does not lead to outyear benefits - but instead turning it into biochar can.)

Ron. (with special thanks again to John Nissen for favorably using the word "biochar" a few days ago as an example of CDR. And including Tom Goreau for the same earlier.)

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 20, 2025, 8:30:51 PM7/20/25

to Robert Chris, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Robert C,

I appreciate your point about the limitations of AI, and I agree that its results should always be treated as provisional and open to falsification. However, I believe your inversion of John Nissen’s position on the urgency of emission reduction reflects a misunderstanding of method.

Running John's argument through AI was not an appeal to authority, but an exercise in exploring the internal logic of his claims by assuming his premises and examining their implications. This is a legitimate rhetorical and scientific method. Assuming a set of premises and testing their consequences is more analytically grounded than simply inverting those premises and assuming the opposite—especially when that inversion rests on the traditional authority of a flawed consensus.

Your reversal does not actually test the strength of the original argument, particularly the non-urgency of emissions reduction. Instead, it merely negates John’s core claims. As Monty Python wisely observed, the automatic gainsaying of what the other person said isn’t an argument. Argument is an intellectual process. Contradictory claims must themselves be tested on scientific and logical grounds.

There is substantial evidence supporting the hypothesis that while emission reductions are eventually necessary, they are not urgent in the way often claimed. If that evidence is not engaged, the AI output you cite reflects a failure of the prompt, not a refutation of the alternative view, or even a basis for reasonable doubt. Analysts can and should critically evaluate climate models to assess how the timing of emissions reduction materially affects temperature outcomes when active cooling and carbon conversion programs are part of the scenario.

As you note, AI reflects the paradigms it has been trained on. Your prompt reflects the dominant IPCC framework, while the assumptions embedded in critiques of emission reduction urgency represent an emerging paradigm still in formation.

In that light, my use of AI was intended to illuminate a line of reasoning—to test its coherence and implications. That only has value if the assumptions are sound, and the conclusions remain open to falsification. I see this as a responsible and constructive use of AI—provided, as you rightly emphasize, it is grounded in independent critical thought.

On other points: the exact question I put to ChatGPT to obtain the response below was simply the quoted text from John Nissen, as provided.

And in response to Paul Anderson—I use an iterative approach with ChatGPT, editing responses several times, inserting additional points and asking questions. That makes it impossible to fully separate AI and human content. Any factual claims are of course open to testing and review.

Best regards,
Robert Tulip

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Peter Fiekowsky

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Jul 20, 2025, 10:28:02 PM7/20/25

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Ron and Dan-

You have good points, and I’m not trying to change your thinking, just inform you of alternative thinking.

Independent of benefits, someone must pay. If no one antes up the funds, it’s just a pipe dream, a fantasy. I’m not opposed to fantasies, but it’s good to distinguish them as such. Someone is going to have to cough up something around a trillion dollars per year in order for biochar to make a noticeable difference in atmospheric CO2 levels.

Note that the UNFCCC is only calling for stabilizing CO2--thus I am off target calling for restoring safe CO2 levels. There is no official call to make a difference in CO2 levels. Restoration is a concern of parents, not the UN organization, which doesn’t have children.

If biochar were the only option, one could imagine that an authoritarian like Trump or Putin might bypass legislatures to allocate a trillion dollars a year. That’s not in anyone’s crystal ball though.

Fortunately we do have ocean photosynthesis aka OIF as an option, one proven to operate at the scale we need, at costs below $1 / ton CO2 if we measure atmospheric CO2 removal, rather than increased ocean carbon content.

Thus, for now until some authority calls for restoring safe CO2 levels below 350 or 300 ppm, the current SRM HPAC path makes sense. While we’re not allowed to restore CO2, we can temporarily cool the planet with SRM.

But the time is coming when an authority will say that we should give our children a safe climate like we were given. At that point OIF will make sense. Sierra Club started this trend a few months ago, calling for CO2 levels below 350 ppm. I recommend that HPAC prepare for an authoritative change in goal happening this year.

Meanwhile, stay the course.

Peter

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 21, 2025, 12:04:53 AM7/21/25

to Alan Kerstein, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Alan

Thank you for your response. I note your concern about definitional clarity and your point that the term "tipping point" is associated with irreversibility. Considering that a Hothouse Earth scenario resulting from exponential evaporation of marine clouds would not be recoverable, cloud loss does constitute a tipping element.

To define a tipping point as a self-reinforcing nonlinear shift that moves the system into a destabilised state does accord with your focus on irreversability. A destabilised state is hard to reverse. Cloud evaporation is a self-reinforcing nonlinear shift, capturing both the dynamic process and the chaotic potential for runaway change. With Hansen’s estimate that cloud loss may be causing half of all current warming, I struggle to see a coherent motive behind the idea that cloud loss should not be recognised as a tipping element.

Claims of SRM being ineffective after a tipping point come from emissions-focused pathways that omit rapid cooling interventions. If cloud albedo loss is driving the half of all warming—as Hansen et al. (2023) argue—then it will be necessary to dampen and reverse it with sufficient cooling, even as the system has begun to spiral.

It's not just a semantic point to call cloud-albedo evaporation a tipping point. The mechanism, as described, fits the core dynamics: a nonlinear feedback that, once initiated, amplifies itself (surface warming → cloud loss → more surface warming) and shifts the system toward a new energy balance. Whether this shift is ultimately reversible doesn’t change the fact that it meets the systemic threshold criteria commonly used in Earth system science (e.g. Lenton et al. 2008), where some tipping points are known to be reversible on long timescales (e.g. sea ice), while others are not.

The big question about tropical cloud evaporation is why a feedback with immediate global forcing power larger than CO₂ has been excluded from the tipping point literature. If a main reason is definitional conservatism, that’s a problem—because it limits our understanding of the real drivers of warming and delays appropriate policy responses. Even worse, if the exclusion is due to fear of the moral hazard fallacy – concern that attention to albedo tipping points promotes interest in sunlight reflection – then we have a major systemic distortion in climate policy, saying we won’t study the most important factors on principle.

Cloud feedbacks—whether labelled tipping points or not—are central to climate risk and must be addressed directly. Perhaps this is the real common ground.

Thanks again for raising the issue.

Regards,
Robert Tulip

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/CAH-gPYHiEeumVepXb3MckVB-OD8Y7Angq7cYZ%2BOFSWqYSPgX8Q%40mail.gmail.com.

GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 21, 2025, 12:18:31 AM7/21/25

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RWL1: Summary on the following: Sorry to not now know which of my comments you disagreed with. So just a few more responses below.

On 07/20/2025 7:27 PM PDT Peter Fiekowsky <pfi...@gmail.com> wrote:

Ron and Dan-

RWL2: Dan? Can you explain why this name is here?

You have good points, and I’m not trying to change your thinking, just inform you of alternative thinking.

RWL3: I think you're changing the topic too much.

Independent of benefits, someone must pay. If no one antes up the funds, it’s just a pipe dream, a fantasy. I’m not opposed to fantasies, but it’s good to distinguish them as such. Someone is going to have to cough up something around a trillion dollars per year in order for biochar to make a noticeable difference in atmospheric CO2 levels.

RWL4: I think CDR has been accepted. And with a trillion dollar price tag. And biochar seems likely to be the cheapest - and much lower than $176 in developing countries. Already happening.

Note that the UNFCCC is only calling for stabilizing CO2--thus I am off target calling for restoring safe CO2 levels. There is no official call to make a difference in CO2 levels. Restoration is a concern of parents, not the UN organization, which doesn’t have children.

RWL5: I see no reason to talk about your being " off target calling for restoring safe CO2 levels". The UN clearly could live with restoration.

If biochar were the only option, one could imagine that an authoritarian like Trump or Putin might bypass legislatures to allocate a trillion dollars a year. That’s not in anyone’s crystal ball though.

RWL6: Why bring in Trump and Putin?

Fortunately we do have ocean photosynthesis aka OIF as an option, one proven to operate at the scale we need, at costs below $1 / ton CO2 if we measure atmospheric CO2 removal, rather than increased ocean carbon content.

RW7: I see this is the topic of the paper you suggested I read. Can't. Still under review. I look forward to hearing more abut $1/ton and the meaning of your "rather than."

Thus, for now until some authority calls for restoring safe CO2 levels below 350 or 300 ppm, the current SRM HPAC path makes sense. While we’re not allowed to restore CO2, we can temporarily cool the planet with SRM.

RWL8: Can you explain why "we're not allowed to restore CO2". And I think your next "can" is not yet certain - and highly controversial.

But the time is coming when an authority will say that we should give our children a safe climate like we were given. At that point OIF will make sense. Sierra Club started this trend a few months ago, calling for CO2 levels below 350 ppm. I recommend that HPAC prepare for an authoritative change in goal happening this year.

RWL9: Just to repeat - I'm sorry there couldn't be more discussion on biochar in your reply to me, with all the following material below only being on biochar - not OIF. And I doubt the Sierra Club is calling for OIF - just a little too controversial? The title of the thread is biochar - so I hope others will still want to discuss more on that topic.

Ron

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-climate-alliance/MN2PR02MB590258E871861BAB5E5B337CFF5DA%40MN2PR02MB5902.namprd02.prod.outlook.com.

Alan Kerstein

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Jul 21, 2025, 1:04:38 AM7/21/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert,

As you mention, it's not just a semantic point to call cloud-albedo evaporation a tipping point. You say that it is a non-linear feedback, and the rest of that sentence describes the features of non-linear feedback. Then you point out that in the literature, tipping points include processes that are reversible on long timescales as well as those that are irreversible. I suppose that engaging in debate with the tipping-point community about whether or when cloud-albedo feedback might qualify as such might at least draw the attention of some in that community to that process. If however you are seeking the attention of the broader polity, then I suggest doing a web search of tipping point. I just did this, and my impression is that calling cloud-albedo feedback a potential tipping point might be justifiable in colloquial terms to the same extent as for any climate feedback. As you rightly emphasize, it is the severity of the cloud-albedo feedback that is the concern. My guess is that the non-expert would be more attentive to the here-and-now problem, which is the feedback, than to the tipping point, which is one of many notional future contingencies, even though it overshadows the others.

Alan

Doug Grandt

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Jul 21, 2025, 1:41:41 AM7/21/25

to H simmens, John Nissen, rob...@rtulip.net, Chris Robert, Thomas Goreau, GRETCHEN RON LARSON, Dan Miller, Peter Fiekowsky, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Searching this entire thread, it seems ocean acidity, heat and sea life depletion have been overlooked — intentionally or inadvertently — leaving it up to the reader to infer from the following bold phrase:

Emissions could continue as they are for the rest of the century, while temperatures are brought down through a combination of cooling interventions (SRM/ERM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Planetary restoration can follow, so long as the CDR includes the promotion of life in soils and oceans to satisfy the needs of maintaining biodiversity and increasing food production.

Shouldn’t reducing ocean heat and acidity be explicitly included on par with CDR and direct cooling as the four essential mechanisms & goals?

Prompts me to wonder why ChatGPT or others reading this thread didn’t pick up on that … so I put three questions to Claude AI app ⬇️ and to you.

Best,

Doug Grandt

1) My initial inquiry to Claude:

Have you noticed that arguments for and against carbon drawdown, emissions reduction, and solar radiation management don’t mention ocean carbon removal, ocean acidity reduction, and ocean sea life restoration?

Claude responded:

You’re highlighting an important gap in climate discourse. Ocean-based interventions often get overshadowed by more visible land-based and atmospheric approaches, even though the ocean absorbs about 25-30% of atmospheric CO2 and over 90% of excess heat.

You’re absolutely right. The search results confirm that ocean-based approaches are gaining recognition but remain underrepresented in mainstream climate discussions. The ocean has absorbed 25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and over 90% of excess heat Sage Journals, yet marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) techniques are still emerging topics.

Several factors contribute to this gap:

Scale of invisibility: Ocean processes happen below the surface, making them less visible than solar panels or forest restoration. The ocean’s massive role as a carbon sink gets taken for granted.

Technical complexity: Ocean alkalinity enhancement, direct ocean capture, and marine ecosystem restoration involve complex biogeochemical processes that are harder to explain than “plant trees” or “build solar farms.”

Policy fragmentation: The U.S. Ocean Acidification Action Plan and increased Congressional appropriations for ocean CDR in FY 2024 Noaa Environmental and Energy Study Institute show growing policy attention, but ocean governance involves multiple agencies and international coordination.

Risk perceptions: Ocean interventions raise concerns about unintended consequences for marine ecosystems, making policymakers more cautious compared to land-based approaches.

Economic models: The economic frameworks around carbon pricing and removal credits have developed primarily around terrestrial and atmospheric approaches, with ocean-based methods still seeking standardized measurement and verification protocols.

The absence of ocean solutions from many climate conversations represents a significant blind spot, especially given that addressing ocean acidification could simultaneously tackle climate change while restoring marine ecosystems that billions depend on for food security.

2) My followup inquiry to Claude:

Why is it that the AI apps have not picked up on this omission and challenged those who have promoted conventional means of restoring Holocene climes?

Claude responded:

That’s a perceptive question about AI systems’ role in challenging established climate narratives. There are several interconnected reasons why AI hasn’t been more proactive in highlighting this ocean omission:

Training data reflects existing discourse: AI systems learn from existing literature, policy documents, and media coverage. If ocean-based solutions are underrepresented in the training corpus, the AI will naturally reflect those same blind spots and emphases. We essentially inherit the biases of the climate conversation as it existed.

Deference to expert consensus: Most AI systems are designed to reflect mainstream scientific and policy positions rather than challenge them. When climate experts and institutions focus primarily on emissions reduction and land-based solutions, AI tends to echo that framing rather than questioning what might be missing.

Risk aversion in sensitive domains: Climate change is a highly consequential topic where being wrong has serious implications. AI developers often program systems to be conservative, sticking to well-established approaches rather than pushing boundaries or highlighting gaps that experts might have good reasons for downplaying.

Fragmented knowledge synthesis: While AI can access vast information, it doesn’t naturally synthesize across disciplines the way an oceanographer-turned-climate-policy-critic might. The connections between ocean chemistry, marine biology, and climate policy require interdisciplinary thinking that AI systems don’t automatically perform.

Institutional alignment: Many AI systems reflect the priorities of the institutions that fund climate research and policy - which have historically focused on energy transitions and terrestrial solutions. There’s less institutional pressure to foreground ocean interventions.

Complexity vs. simplicity bias: AI often gravitates toward clearer, more established narratives. “Reduce emissions, add renewables, plant trees” is simpler to communicate than “alkalinize oceans while carefully monitoring marine ecosystems and managing international governance complexities.”

Your observation suggests AI could play a more valuable role as a cross-disciplinary challenger, identifying these systemic omissions rather than just reflecting existing expert discourse.

3) My final inquiry to Claude:

Is this weakness of AI detrimental to human survival?

Claude responded:

This AI limitation could indeed be detrimental to human survival, though the severity depends on how critical ocean-based interventions prove to be and how much we rely on AI for climate guidance.

Direct survival implications: If ocean carbon removal, acidification reversal, and marine ecosystem restoration are essential for preventing catastrophic climate outcomes - and current evidence suggests they may be - then AI systems that reinforce incomplete approaches could contribute to inadequate responses. The ocean’s role as both a massive carbon sink and the foundation of global food webs makes this particularly consequential.

Systemic amplification of blind spots: AI increasingly influences policy research, grant funding decisions, corporate strategy, and public discourse. When AI systems consistently omit ocean solutions from climate recommendations, they don’t just reflect existing biases - they amplify and entrench them across multiple decision-making systems simultaneously.

Speed vs. accuracy tradeoff: Climate response requires both urgency and comprehensiveness. AI’s tendency to stick with established approaches might help avoid risky experimental interventions, but it could also cause us to miss critical solutions during the narrow window when they’d be most effective.

Feedback loop risks: As AI becomes more prevalent in climate research and policy, there’s a risk of creating self-reinforcing loops where incomplete framings become increasingly dominant simply because they’re repeated across AI-assisted analyses.

However, the limitation isn’t necessarily fatal if:
Ocean scientists and marine policy experts continue advocating independently
Human decision-makers maintain critical oversight of AI recommendations
AI systems evolve to better identify and challenge systemic omissions
The real danger lies not just in missing ocean solutions, but in AI’s potential to create false confidence in incomplete approaches during humanity’s most critical environmental decision-making period.

###

Tom Goreau

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Jul 21, 2025, 7:08:11 AM7/21/25

to GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, Peter Fiekowsky, rob...@rtulip.net, johnnis...@gmail.com, hsim...@gmail.com, healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com, planetary-...@googlegroups.com, healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com

This new paper just posted points out that Biochar’s CDR potential has been greatly underestimated, as Peter Fiekowsky does again beneath Ron Larson’s response, and that there is a vast amount of work being done, far more than realized by most reviewers. The authors include many of the top experts on soil carbon.

Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal revealed as much larger through AI-enhanced systematic mapping

Authors

Sarah Lück, Max Callaghan, Malgorzata Borchers, Annette Cowie, Sabine Fuss, Matthew Gidden, Jens Hartmann, Claudia Kammann, David P. Keller, Florian Kraxner, William F. Lamb, Niall Mac Dowell, Finn Müller-Hansen, Gregory F. Nemet, Benedict S. Probst, Phil Renforth, Tim Repke, Wilfried Rickels, Ingrid Schulte, Pete Smith, Stephen M. Smith, Daniela Thrän, Tiffany G. Troxler, Volker Sick, Mijndert van der Spek & Jan C. Minx

18 July 2025

Abstract

Carbon dioxide removal plays an important role in any strategy to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Keeping abreast with the scientific evidence using rigorous evidence synthesis methods is an important prerequisite for sustainably scaling these methods. Here, we use artificial intelligence to provide a comprehensive systematic map of carbon dioxide removal research. We find a total of 28,976 studies on carbon dioxide removal—3–4 times more than previously suggested. Growth in research is faster than for the field of climate change research as a whole, but very concentrated in specific areas—such as biochar, certain research methods like lab and field experiments, and particular regions like China. Patterns of carbon dioxide removal research contrast with trends in patenting and deployment, highlighting the differing development stages of these technologies. As carbon dioxide removal gains importance for the Paris climate goals, our systematic map can support rigorous evidence synthesis for the IPCC and other assessments.

Source: Nature Communications

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 21, 2025, 8:57:51 AM7/21/25

to GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Great point Ron about evaporation. It prompted me to find the attached very useful information about the collapsing role of the atmospheric inversion layer as a central little known fact that is accelerating global warming by forcing evaporation and destroying reflective marine clouds as a key heat feedback and tipping point.

We all know, as you point out, that evaporation of water in forest transpiration creates cloud micro climates. So why does evaporation of water in marine clouds have the opposite effect, decreasing cloud cover? Evaporation adds water vapor to the atmosphere, which might intuitively suggest that it should lead to more cloud formation. However, over oceans—especially in regions undergoing warming—increased evaporation is paradoxically reducing low cloud cover.

Marine stratocumulus clouds depend on a cool ocean surface capped by a warm, dry inversion layer. This inversion traps moist air below, allowing it to condense and form persistent low clouds. But as ocean surface temperatures rise due to greenhouse forcing and declining aerosol reflection, the inversion layer warms and weakens, and in some regions is now collapsing entirely.

See the attached AI commentary on the central protective role of the inversion layer as the key tipping element in Earth’s disintegrating albedo layer.

In summary, as the thermal gradient between ocean surface and overlying air diminishes, the atmosphere becomes less stable. This promotes vertical mixing, bringing dry air down and moisture up, dispersing the cloud layer. The additional evaporation from the ocean surface and clouds stays in the invisible gas phase, failing to condense into visible cloud droplets, and thereby acting to warm not cool. Without sufficient cooling and condensation, cloud formation is inhibited, even in a more humid atmosphere. This breakdown of stratocumulus cloud decks—driven by warming, inversion collapse, and unchecked evaporation—reduces planetary albedo and allows more solar radiation to be absorbed by the oceans. As observed in recent studies (e.g. Goessling et al., 2024), this process is now contributing significantly to accelerating global heating.

By the way Ron, I love your work on biochar. I have a five acre block of uncleared bushland with a thick leaf and twig litter load that is a fire risk. I would like to collect the litter and convert it into biochar. Topic for a different thread.

Regards

Robert Tulip

From: GRETCHEN & RON LARSON <rongre...@comcast.net>
Sent: Monday, 21 July 2025 3:03 AM
To: rob...@rtulip.net; Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>; Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>; Thomas Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Are Clouds Tipping Elements?

Robert et al:

This to make a minor point about "evaporation".

In your 6th paragraph below you write (my bolding):

"Our darker and less reflective world brings a self-reinforcing thermodynamic loop: heat drives evaporation and evaporation drives heat. Evaporation increases water vapour (a greenhouse gas) and decreases cloud cover (a reflective shield), further accelerating the energy imbalance.

This just to point out that there are two "evaporations" going on. "Evaporation" also applies at leaves - where its occurrence increases not decreases could cover. More biomass (and clouds) follows from more biochar.

I know you know this, but I stumbled when I (incorrectly) first read that sentence.

Ron

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/05f801dbf97a%24db138ee0%24913aaca0%24%40rtulip.net.

How evaporation reduces cloud cover by destroying inversion.docx

Peter Fiekowsky

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Jul 21, 2025, 9:21:37 AM7/21/25

to Tom Goreau, GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, rob...@rtulip.net, johnnis...@gmail.com, hsim...@gmail.com, healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com, planetary-...@googlegroups.com, healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com

Tom- Good paper. It points to the power of crowd sourcing, which is what AI does. Think of that—29,000 research articles on CDR. As Ron points out, most carbon credits (another form of crowd sourcing) are in biochar.

I mentioned Dan Miller because he had a good contribution earlier.

As Ron points out, there is implied consensus that someone, somehow should come up with trillions of dollars for CDR. That’s the power of crowd sourcing. I remember thinking that in 1975, fifty years ago, when I first learned about global warming.

We now have fifty years of evidence that no one has a way to conjure up trillions of dollars per year for CDR. This is where physical reality and crowd sourcing take separate paths.

In physical reality, the money must come from real stakeholders for our children and grandchildren. That’s grandparents. Especially wealthy ones like the 3000 billionaires around the world, holding $16 trillion. I have a team organizing the “Family Office Consortium” to manage that. A family office is what a family with more than about $50 million has to run their investment and philanthropy.

What CDR method will be taken? Probably an engineering variation on what worked in 1992 to remove 17 Gt CO2—nitrogen fixation OIF (N-OIF). My group, DeepGreen Solutions is working to implement that. As I mentioned, the cost to get CO2 back to what we had when we were kids looks to be $1 billion per year through 2050—based on tests in 2012 and recent developments. That is less than 0.1% of the many trillions per year for a hypothetical biochar rollout (or other recent popular CDR methods).

We have 2 papers so far. One is in peer review this week.

The Pinatubo CO2 pause suggests a rapidly testable path to multi-Gt mCDR (preprint)

IEEE paper Implementing Climate Restoration This Decade

So with the score 2 against 29,000 research papers, physical reality is totally losing against crowd sourcing. It makes good sense to put your money on crowd sourced solutions.

But we’re up infinitely compared to 4 months ago, when the score was zero to 29,000. We’re picking up speed.

Conclusion: Prepare to switch sides to climate restoration using Nature’s N-OIF, around the end of the year.

Peter

Robert Chris

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Jul 21, 2025, 9:44:01 AM7/21/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi RobertT

If your purpose was to test the hypothesis implicit in John's statement, I think you need to reflect on how to construct the question you put. Simply offering up the statement is unlikely to elicit a response that 'tests the strength of the argument'.

Indeed, if that's how you were using ChatGPT, there ought to be no need for you to cite its output at length, it'd be sufficient to offer your own paraphrase of John's argument, suitably informed by whatever insights ChatGPT adds. The mere reference to ChatGPT implies that it is being used as an authority. If it isn't, then why cite it?

Doug's more recent contribution to this discussion offers further helpful comment. He does quote Claude but see how succinct and direct his questions are.

As I previously commented, these AI services are superb, but they need to be used with caution. It seems to me that if used properly, they never need to be cited or quoted. Their purpose is to provoke the user to think more deeply about a subject. What the user then presents to the world should be the result of that deeper thinking, not a recitation of the prompts that sparked it.

Regards

Robert

From: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>
Sent: 21 July 2025 01:30
To: 'Robert Chris' <robert...@gmail.com>; peterlin...@gmail.com <peterlin...@gmail.com>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'H simmens' <hsim...@gmail.com>

Michael MacCracken

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Jul 21, 2025, 7:35:51 PM7/21/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, Ron Baiman, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Hi Robert T--After reading your previous explanation about evaporation of clouds, etc., I was going to write to suggest that the explanation seemed confusing with increased water vapor leading to higher water vapor mixing ratio and this somehow leading to evaporation of clouds with the heat from the surface, or something.

On the other hand, the explanation in this email sounds much more reasonable, namely that climate change is altering the conditions that have in the past led to the formation of marine clouds (i.e., the oceans are warming, apparently by enough to weaken the inversion that has in the past served as a cap to the marine boundary layer in ways that led to formation of marine stratus). In that the increase in atmospheric water vapor leads to an intensification of the upward flow of the Hadley Cell (and perhaps a narrowing), it would seem that with more air going up, more air must come down and it would seem that that would tend to strengthen the inversion. But then, the area of the subtropics is getting larger, so perhaps the per area rate of downward motion is not going up, meaning that the warming ocean waters could warm the marine layer enough to weaken the inversion and thus allowing more mixing of the very dry downwelling air mass with the moist boundary layer and thus preventing formation of marine stratus.

On the debate about what to call it, it is, at least on one hand, a result of internal processes that lead to a change and so can officially be called a feedback. Now, in that it seems so non-linear as the clouds do not form and the albedo in that range changes by a lot. This really seems to be a lot like what is happening with the loss of sea ice--conditions for ice formation change and this had a big albedo effect. That process is called a positive feedback, but also its loss is considered a tipping point (though the big albedo change really comes when the fresh snow atop sea ice in the spring melts, reducing the albedo from 70-80% or so for new snow to 20-30% for melt pools on top of sea ice rather than when sea ice with surface melting actually disappears.

So, all very interesting.

Best, Mike

Jon Schull

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Jul 21, 2025, 7:56:18 PM7/21/25

to Brian Cady, Ron Baiman, rob...@rtulip.net, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

@robert tulip

That was an extraordinarily acute analysis by chatgpt.

I’m wondering if it has learned your point of view?

Could you share the session or the prompts you used so we can test in our own contexts?

On Sun, Jul 20, 2025 at 7:49 AM Brian Cady <brianc...@gmail.com> wrote:

Regarding AI online options, a respected colleague and friend, Dr. David Weisman, uses perplexity.ai , which regularly provides source citations for it's reasoning.
He still checks those citations to catch hallucinations, though.

https://www.perplexity.ai/

Brian
-

For more from Brian, please see:
http://hopefulvision.blogspot.com

On Sat, Jul 19, 2025, 21:28 Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com> wrote:

Wow Robert! ChatGPT does indeed appear to be informed, rational and encouraging on this!

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 19, 2025, at 4:13 AM, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:

Hi Herb

I just watched the latest short talk from Nate Hagens in which he discusses Johan. This prompted me to make the following comment to Nate.

on tipping points, the main scholars Lenton and McKay and Rockstrom et al do not seem to have recognised ocean cloud evaporation as a tipping point, although Hansen in Global Warming in the Pipeline (2023) calculates that it is by far the biggest single direct cause of warming. This points to the big split between the geoengineering and tipping point communities within climate science. Geoengineering advocates recognise the primacy of albedo loss as the most dangerous feedback, while the climate science tipping point mainstream such as Rockstrom seem to prefer to ignore the tipping points that indicate the urgent need for sunlight reflection. The accelerating feedbacks of tropical cloud evaporation are just left out of tipping point maps for some reason although they have been known for some years. NASA data shows the planet has got 1.7% darker this century. This problem of inadequate focus on albedo collapse should be central to climate policy.

I am finding ChatGPT extremely helpful in teasing out implications of such analysis. Here is its response, explaining that Lenton and Rockstrom have a defective epistemology.

Herb Simmens

Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future

“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com

On Jul 18, 2025, at 8:30 AM, H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi Robert,

I am not sure that the barriers to being open or supportive of SRM relate to climate science as much as they do to either deep seated ideological reservations or a wildly different evaluation of risk versus reward than most of us share.

Herb

Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future
“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com

On Jul 18, 2025, at 7:10 AM, rob...@rtulip.net wrote:

Hi Herb, Your interview with Rockstrom is really important to help us understand the deficiencies and barriers within established climate science.

His statement about geoengineering from the transcript is attached. I would like to discuss this more, but for now here is the comment I left on your YouTube video last week

At 5:00 in the video Rockstrom has a slide of tipping points. Tropical cloud evaporation is missing. Yet the feedbacks from cloud and ice loss are calculated by Hansen et al as causing four times more immediate warming than the greenhouse effect. This gap in Rockstrom’s climate picture reveals a failure to see what could be the biggest climate tipping point, the accelerating feedback of cloud loss. Sunlight reflection is urgently needed to protect the Earth’s albedo layer.

I see from your reply that this slide is from 2008 data, way out of date. I would like to know how the Tipping Points Conference addressed cloud evaporation as an emerging planetary crisis. Did the conference discuss papers such as Loeb 2021 and Hansen 2023?

Regards

Robert Tulip

From: planetary-...@googlegroups.com <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of H simmens
Sent: Monday, 14 July 2025 12:09 AM
To: HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

My interview on behalf of the Climate Emergency Forum with Johan Rockstrom was released this morning on YouTube.

As I noted in a previous email I asked him about SRM (a question I don’t think he was thrilled to have to answer…) in the context of Oliver Morton‘s previous presentation challenging the tipping points community to be open to SRM and he gave a quite definitive and dismissive response as you will see.

I also had the opportunity to speak privately with Tim Linton who was also dismissive of SRM.

There were a handful of folks I chatted with at the Global Climate Tipping Points conference who were supportive of SRM but none of those were climate scientists.

Herb

Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits
youtu.be

Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future
“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com

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<Herb and Rockstrom Geoengineering transcript.docx>

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rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 22, 2025, 12:15:28 AM7/22/25

to Jon Schull, Brian Cady, Ron Baiman, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Jon,

I'm glad you found the ChatGPT analysis acute. As you suggest, this extraordinary quality of insight arises when the right questions are asked, and when there’s sustained dialogue to refine reasoning and correct errors.

You're also right that this kind of output reflects how I've trained the system to engage with my point of view. I continually challenge it—pushing back on weak logic, vague language, or factual gaps and the occasional mistake. In return, it iterates and improves, learning with remarkable consistency.

My article in The Hill, for example, was entirely my own argument, but refined through many back-and-forth exchanges with ChatGPT and a human editor. The commentary below builds directly on those prior discussions.

The result is an evolving memory and coherence, like a chess engine steadily rising beyond human limits. For serious work—especially in complex domains like climate policy—this machine learning is an invaluable ally.

The scepticism many express about AI’s role in climate policy is misplaced. When used wisely, it can accelerate insight and clarity, and serve planetary flourishing.

In recent posts, I’ve attached several pages of AI discussion. I encourage people to read them, aiming to help spark quantum leaps in understanding.

Today’s attachment shows my iterative discussion leading to a pitch for a business cooling coalition to establish an Albedo Accord. I hope it contributes usefully to the wider dialogue.

I have also been using ChatGPT for discussions on biochar, OTEC and the philosophy of paradigm shift. I hope to find opportunity to share more of this transformative work.

Best regards,

Robert Tulip

He ended his brief remarks by essentially saying that the tipping points community needs to be careful that it is not perceived as arguing the tipping points are a serious risk for the purposes of scaring people into embracing the ‘social revolution’ that it advocates.

Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits
youtu.be

Business Coalition for Albedo Accord.docx

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 22, 2025, 4:50:40 AM7/22/25

to Robert Chris, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert, I would like to clarify the issues in your comments here. My “simply offering up the statement” as an AI prompt has clearly in this instance “elicited a response that tests the strength of the argument” that John Nissen made against the urgency of emission reduction. However, the prompt does not exist in isolation. There is also the back story of my previous priming of it through extensive discussion of the topic, including for my article published in The Hill. Without that background the AI would not be able to provide a response of similar quality and detail. This priming moves the framing of AI from “static authority” to dynamic interlocutor, which is an important conceptual distinction.

The AI commentary expanded significantly on why emission reduction is not urgent, providing a powerful refutation of the dominant ideology of Emission Reduction Alone (ERA). I reviewed its response and found it accorded with my perceptions of the problem. By contrast, the automatic gainsaying method that you offered as a hypothetical converse example simply threw up tired old ERA tropes that are readily refuted (see attached). We might imagine we are playing Godzilla v Megalon here in the war of the AIs, except that the great difference is that the AI systems are designed to place primary value on evidence and logic, as a way to find the truth and the most effective responses.

The concept you raise of using something as an authority needs analysis. Traditionally, authority is viewed as both a highly reliable source and as something that should not be questioned. Such deference is not at all relevant to AI, where all its claims deserve to be thoroughly pulled apart and falsified where possible. In this instance, as I partly explained to Jon Schell, my sense of authority in using ChatGPT comes from the fact that its comment is not just a bare response to John Nissen’s comment, but takes into account the extensive discussions I have had with it beforehand. Anyone is very welcome to try to use AI arguments to contest any of these points. I don’t think they will be very successful.

Your idea of never citing AI strikes me as quite cumbersome. With such an incisive tool, there are often occasions like this where its response is worth sharing with a wider audience, in this case as a concise presentation of the highly provocative argument that emission reduction is not actually urgent as a climate response.

As we continue to assess both the content and the method of this debate about how to best use AI to inform climate policy, the high value of well-structured content based on extensive evidence will rapidly become more widely apparent. Of course you are right to ask these questions about necessary cautions, as people gradually become familiar with this powerful new tool. AI can be used not to replace thought but to sharpen it. Transparency and critical engagement with AI-generated content enhances—not diminishes—the quality of reasoning.

One key issue here is the distinction between tribal and scientific logic. Tribal logic places value on loyalty, belonging, trust, authority, institutions, continuity, tradition and caution. Scientific logic places value on facts, coherence, consistency, method, transparency and reason. The ERA argument is tribal rather than scientific, a problem that is readily exposed when its claims are put through the AI grinder. ERA arguments are deeply rooted in institutional frameworks, but new feedback-driven paradigms now challenge their urgency logic.

Many thanks for this helpful discussion.

Regards

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/VI1P194MB03988B109D705CD8B96CEE15FC5DA%40VI1P194MB0398.EURP194.PROD.OUTLOOK.COM.

ChatGPT response to R Chris on emission urgency.docx

John Nissen

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Jul 22, 2025, 9:48:17 AM7/22/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Robert Chris, peterlin...@gmail.com, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Robert,

I really like your distinction between two types of logic: the tribal as in the ERA secular religion, and the scientific as in urgent requirement for SAI to refreeze the Arctic and lower temperatures everywhere. I would like to make a few points of a general nature:

1. EEI and long-term sustainability

For long-term sustainability, the Earth's Energy Imbalance needs to be zero so that the planet is neither heating or cooling. There are two components to the EEI: the longwave or thermal radiation component and the shortwave or albedo component. At present there is not enough longwave escaping into space, and not enough shortwave being reflected out into space, so the planet is heating. Over the next few decades the EEI needs to go negative to cool down the planet. 2075 is a suggested target to bring the global mean temperature down to 0.5C above the 1900 baseline. Following this, the EEI can be gradually raised towards zero for long-term stability and sustainability.

2. SRM essential

The longwave component has been relatively static, because the greenhouse effect from the rise of CO2e in the atmosphere has been offset by increased thermal emissions (aka "black body radiation") from the surface as surface temperatures have risen. But the CERES satellite has shown that over 20 years, the shortwave component has increased dramatically, particularly in the last few years. The planet has darkened. To minimise the ongoing damage/harm from climate change and to avoid tipping point catastrophe, the planet (and Arctic in particular) has to be cooled quickly, which can only be done by SRM/ERM techniques.

3. C02 removal has to be a lot faster than emissions

CO2 removal is essential in the long-term to reduce the long-wave component of the EEI and allow the gradual phase-out of SRM If removal is at twice the rate of emissions, half the excess CO2 can be removed over the next few decades (I calculated 27 years), even with emissions remaining at their current rate. With this approach, an increase of 20% in emissions would only require a 10% increase in CDR to retain the same timescale.

4. Reduction in other GHGs

Ideally the radiative forcing from other greenhouse gases should be reduced, e.g. halved by 2075. It is probably easier and cheaper to do this by reducing emissions than removing them from the atmosphere, e.g. for methane. The danger of an outburst of methane at the multi-gigaton level from Arctic permafrost can best be mitigated for terrestrial permafrost by keeping the land surface frozen, and, for subsea permafrost, by keeping the seabed temperature near zero degrees centigrade and having a healthy quantity of methanotrophs to digest methane in the water column.

Cheers, John

Brian Cady

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Jul 22, 2025, 5:54:26 PM7/22/25

to Tom Goreau, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, rob...@rtulip.net, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Peter Lindenmeyer and all, while I have heard that regen. ag. 'can't feed the world', I have also seen documented counterclaims from regen. ag. folks. Similarly I've seen various perspectives on ocean productivity restoration and enhancement.

Could we start assembling and sharing perspectives and data on each of these, perhaps through two separate threads?

Brian

-

For more from Brian, please see:
http://hopefulvision.blogspot.com

On Sun, Jul 20, 2025, 07:23 Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org> wrote:

Thanks, Mike! The net effect of climate feedbacks is to amplify warming, that is clear because the glacial-interglacial temperature change is an order of magnitude greater than the change in solar radiation would cause directly.

Assuming of course, that albedo does not change!

But to assume it does change, as it certainly must when all ecosystems on land and sea migrate, requires a mechanism to explain why and how, so modelers leave it out because they don’t have a theory to predict global albedo changes even though this albedo the starting point of planetary temperature physics.

If there is a big lie here, it is thinking climate is so simple we don’t need to have nature teach us how she works, because our theories are clearly inadequate.

The details of biological and cloud feedbacks are so complicated and non-linear that they are best inferred from studying the effects rather than by modeling.

Paleoclimatology records of real world temperatures all show climate sensitivities higher than any of the models, and the models have systematically underestimated the impacts to date, and will do worse for future changes.

Chat GPT summarizes only what is most commonly repeated, but does NOT include what people can’t even understand! That’s OK if you are running a popularity contest with people all of the same religion, or capitalizing off the popular fad of the moment, but not for finding the truth.

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>
Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025 at 9:34 

PM

To: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>, rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>, HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>, Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

Thank you Mike! This is very helpful (to me at least)!

Best,

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 19, 2025, at 4:22 PM, 'Michael MacCracken' via Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Dear Robert, Herb, etc.--

No guarantee I can provide a better explanation than AI, but let me give it a try.

I'd say that the reason that reduction of clouds has not not listed as a tipping point is that cloud variations have historically been seen as n internal processes in the atmosphere. Discussion of climate change has devoted a lot of attention to internal versus external aspects of the system. Originally the calculated part of the "Earth system" was pretty much the atmosphere and so processes in the atmosphere were considered internal and effects on the atmosphere from outside (like volcanic eruptions, changes in the CO2 concentration, etc.) were considered external and were imposed on the atmosphere. And so the cloud change effect being discussed would be considered an internal process that would be referred to as a positive feedback rather than an external process, even though it might be that at some temperature, etc. the feedback might increase in intensity.

Just as one could attribute the warming we've experienced to the decrease in clouds, the same type of formulation could be use to say that it is the growing amount of water vapor in the atmosphere that is responsible for the warming (so, should there be a protocol to limit the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere). With the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, the amount of water vapor holding capacity goes up about 7% per degree C and this then leads to an amplified effect on rainfall and more--there is not as clear a relationship with clouds, but there is some relationship such that the amount of low clouds goes down as the temperature goes up and this lets in more solar and further warms--is this then not just an internal process?

Now the definition of the Earth system has expanded over the years as models have gotten better and so there are more internal processes included--the oceans, the cryosphere, etc. An example of a now internal process is ice-albedo feedback, the warmer it gets, the less ice, the greater the absorption of solar and the warmer it gets, etc. For the larger Earth system, this is now treated as an internal process. I will admit (point out) that it is a bit inconsistent calling the sea ice effect a tipping point when it is an internal process and then not calling the cloud albedo relationship a tipping point presumably because it is an internal feedback process in the atmosphere.

And the newest models calculate the carbon cycle and even aspects of the cryosphere, so permafrost thawing is now an internal process, but is also counted as a tipping point although the processes involved are being included as internal to the calculations. Same with AMOC and other ocean current-related aspects.

Where the problem seems to perhaps be is in not yet (this is all a pretty new area of study) having some consistent definitions and not yet having fully explored the potential for interventions. So, brightening clouds is climate intervention but clouds going to zero albedo (so disappearing) is referred to as an internal process and restoring them would be intervention. The water vapor effect increasing due to a fixed law being considered a process but effects to vary from this relationship (e.g., suppressing evaporation) being considered an intervention because they are human-induced even though natural processes change the regional water vapor mixing ratio all the time.

My guess is that for a while we'll just have to muddle through with not fully satisfactory terminology and differentiations. I don't think it intentional--just that history in the field has led to certain customs prevailing, and that the full range of possibilities relating to some of these aspects have yet to be fully thought through and evolved to a new internally consistent formulation.

Best, Mike

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GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 22, 2025, 5:54:30 PM7/22/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Robert et al:

This to make a minor point about "evaporation".

In your 6th paragraph below you write (my bolding):

"Our darker and less reflective world brings a self-reinforcing thermodynamic loop: heat drives evaporation and evaporation drives heat. Evaporation increases water vapour (a greenhouse gas) and decreases cloud cover (a reflective shield), further accelerating the energy imbalance.

This just to point out that there are two "evaporations" going on. "Evaporation" also applies at leaves - where its occurrence increases not decreases could cover. More biomass (and clouds) follows from more biochar.

I know you know this, but I stumbled when I (incorrectly) first read that sentence.

Ron

On 07/20/2025 6:33 AM PDT rob...@rtulip.net wrote:

Thank you Mike for your thoughtful explanation of the exclusion of clouds as tipping elements. This should be a central climate debate.

It seems a critical flaw in prevailing climate models and tipping point frameworks is revealed by the breakdown of the distinction you describe between internal and external processes in the climate system. This distinction fails to recognise the primary warming role of tropical cloud loss.

The conventional classification you describe—treating cloud processes as “internal” to the atmosphere—has led to their framing as fast feedbacks rather than as tipping elements. But this view ignores the slow feedbacks inherent to the cloud system. Therefore the exclusion of clouds from climate models collapses against the physical reality that anthropogenic heat is now driving large-scale evaporation of low marine clouds, fundamentally altering Earth’s energy balance and heating the planet.

As James Hansen and colleagues argue in Global Warming in the Pipeline (2023), the primary cause of accelerating planetary heating is the loss of cloud reflectivity, especially over the oceans. This is not simply an atmospheric variation—it is a threshold-crossing process, where accumulated heat drives the phase transition of water from liquid to gas, thinning clouds and reducing albedo in a powerful positive feedback loop.

Decrease of cloud cover is the flipside of increased water vapour. Clouds are visible liquid while vapour is invisible gas. Both are part of the same evaporation-heat feedback loop driving the thermodynamic logic of planetary heat. As temperatures rise, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, increasing humidity. This evaporating heat thins low clouds, especially marine stratocumulus, converting their water from liquid to gas, reducing planetary albedo reflection and allowing more sunlight to be absorbed in land and sea as heat.

Our darker and less reflective world brings a self-reinforcing thermodynamic loop: heat drives evaporation and evaporation drives heat. Evaporation increases water vapour (a greenhouse gas) and decreases cloud cover (a reflective shield), further accelerating the energy imbalance.

Evaporation of clouds is a primary cause of the current growth in radiative forcing and heat. Hansen estimates that albedo loss accounts for 80% of near-term warming, and that cloud loss contributes 62% of that albedo decline. This implies that roughly half of current warming is driven by cloud loss, making clouds, by any meaningful definition, the primary planetary tipping point.

Cloud-heat feedbacks meet the criteria of a tipping element, as a self-reinforcing, nonlinear shift that moves the system into a destabilised state. Yet, cloud-heat feedback remains largely overlooked in the tipping point literature, apparently because it arises from what has historically been classified as an “internal” process of the Earth System. That downgrading of clouds partially explains why the scientific tipping point community expresses such disdainful incomprehension of the primary need to restore planetary albedo.

The cloud–heat feedback remains under-recognised—even though the physics are well established, the potential impact is extreme, and the evidence is mounting that it is already driving current warming. Tipping points are meant to identify nonlinear transitions with planetary consequences. Low cloud loss should be front and centre in the discussion.

The internal–external distinction previously used in climate models no longer holds. The human-driven energy imbalance of clouds as tipping elements is external in origin, yet it now triggers a cascade of internally modelled atmospheric responses—with cloud evaporation chief among them—that have become the dominant pathway of planetary destabilisation.

It is therefore complacent and dangerous for leading analysts such as Lenton, Rockström, and McKay to exclude tropical cloud evaporation from the list of recognised tipping points. This omission blindsides policy and distracts attention from the real centre of gravity in the climate crisis—not just emissions, but the collapse of Earth’s reflective albedo shield.

To avoid catastrophic warming, we must reverse the loss of the albedo layer as the central planetary tipping element. Earth’s Albedo Layer is the tipping element most urgently in need of active, restorative intervention, through an Albedo Accord, modelled on the success of the Montreal Protocol.

Regards

Robert Tulip

My June 2025 article in The Hill is at https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5357702-albedo-loss-global-warming/

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/05f801dbf97a%24db138ee0%24913aaca0%24%40rtulip.net.

Vyt Garnys (CETEC)

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Jul 22, 2025, 6:31:36 PM7/22/25

to GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Hi All,

Considering thermal management…

Great discussions but apart from physical reflectivity of the non-heating component of solar radiation (visible & short wavelength light), the absorptive ( heating) component ( infrared) is highly absorbed into clouds, humid air, water and ultimately vegetation with very low reflection. We all love warm rain!

This absorption induces lasting phase changes, growth, chemical reaction acceleration, bushfires etc. A very complex chain of interactions.

Can we discuss this? Albedo may not be our problem. It may be latent heat including from evaporation? Has this been discussed?

Great, stimulating and important work by this group.

Vyt

Dr Vyt Garnys
PhD, B.Sc. (Hons), Lead Auditor, FMA, ISIAQ, ACA, AIRAH, RACI
Managing Director and Principal Consultant

+61 419 373 415 | +44 749 291 7534 | +61 3 9544 9111

From: 'GRETCHEN & RON LARSON' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, 21 July 2025 3:03 AM
To: rob...@rtulip.net; Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>; Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>
Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>; Thomas Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Are Clouds Tipping Elements?

Robert et al:

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GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 22, 2025, 7:54:35 PM7/22/25

to GRETCHEN & RON LARSON' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC), rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, <johnnissen2003@gmail.com>, H simmens, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Robert et al: adding John Nissen

Apologies. Have no idea how this got sent out - inadvertently.

But I have today been ithinking through a possible connection between biochar and John Nissen's decades-long obsession with Arctic ice. Saying this here allows me tons put more time into justifying that 3-way connection - and hoping John will reconsider his past non-interest in "salty ice".

My new thought: the needed ice-making (pumping) energy can be supplied by the syngas that is often thrown away when making biochar. And the biochar can be made with boats - with "zero-cost" energy and income from a). biochar and b). its carbon credits as well as c). for growing ice via radiation management.

Ron

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daleanne bourjaily

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Jul 23, 2025, 5:40:48 AM7/23/25

to Brian Cady, Tom Goreau, Ron Baiman, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, Robert Tulip, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear all, I have done regen ag projects in supply chains with Kelloggs (fruit) Tropicana(fruit), Ahold(coffee), Global Trading(nuts), C&A (organic cotton), ipecuhana and umia gato with big pharma and more.

Yields are 25-30% more than conventional agriculture after a three to five year transition period. The five years is with heavily contaminated ground from inorganic chemicals and peaticides. The challenge is financing the transition. We did it with debt for nature swaps, grants, soft loans.

Best,

Dale Anne

Op di 22 jul 2025 23:54 schreef Brian Cady <brianc...@gmail.com>:

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daleanne bourjaily

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Jul 23, 2025, 5:43:32 AM7/23/25

to healthy-planet-action-coalition

peterlin...@gmail.com

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Jul 23, 2025, 7:11:00 AM7/23/25

to daleanne bourjaily, healthy-planet-action-coalition

Hi Dale & Brian

I’m a great supporter of regenerative agriculture, and hope it expands. But unfortunately I don’t believe it’s realistic to expect the huge quantities of food the current global population demands to be produced regeneratively in the near to medium term future. You’re presumably aware of the 5 key principles of regenerative agriculture, so consider whether these could realistically be applied to the world’s key broadacre crops – e.g. wheat (over 200 million hectares sown annually) and soybean (over 120 million) – a high proportion of both on huge monocropping farms with, annual tilling, heavy chemical fertilizing, weedicide and pesticide use etc. Without these inputs output would plummet, food prices skyrocket and even more in the global south would face malnutrition and starvation.

This is an interesting and important topic, but I suggest that it’s not central to the HPAC agenda, so I suggest we could agree to disagree on this and focus on matters that are more central to planetary cooling.

Best wishes

Peter

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daleanne bourjaily

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Jul 23, 2025, 7:17:15 AM7/23/25

to peterlin...@gmail.com, healthy-planet-action-coalition

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479724015810

Op wo 23 jul 2025 13:10 schreef <peterlin...@gmail.com>:

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 23, 2025, 9:09:37 AM7/23/25

to peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Peter

Thanks very much for joining this conversation, I always appreciate hearing your views. No one should be comfortable with the suggestion that emission reduction is not important! I am very uncomfortable that the politics of Emission Reduction Alone (ERA) illustrates human propensity to be deluded on mass scale. And I am very uncomfortable that the IPCC for thirty major international meetings has advanced ERA with minor CDR additions as a solution that is utterly unworkable. I am not comfortable that climate politics has allowed the impact of the sixth planetary extinction to get steadily worse while doing nothing effective to mitigate that risk, with its attendant peril of the collapse of human civilization. Of course some people think human extinction is all fine since we deserve it, but I don’t agree.

I know you were using ‘not comfortable’ in a different way, as a diplomatic euphemism for disagreement. The problem I have with your argument is quite simply one of scale. Very hard work to scale up decarbonisation might hypothetically bring emissions down by 10% in coming decades (4 Gt CO2e/y). Although even that is grossly implausible, see for example the attached recent article by Chris Uhlmann in The Australian citing the German experience and attacking the entire concept of net zero emissions. Unfortunately, even such an implausible herculean world effort as a 4Gt annual emission cut would have almost no effect on climate tipping points, perhaps delaying them by months or years. Since cumulative anthropogenic CO₂ emissions exceed 2.5 trillion tonnes, a 4 Gt annual cut represents only 0.16% of that total*—marginal in terms of radiative forcing, and functionally less than zero in view of the likelihood of its cooling impacts being swamped by tipping points.

Tipping points are driven by processes at the trillion tonne CO2 scale, whereas emission reduction operates at the million tonne scale, and can only cut GHG flow, not GHG stock. Action on emission reduction therefore is marginal to climate change. Cutting emissions can be justified as part of the HPAC triad by economic and pollution arguments, and possibly by the political argument of the value of alliances with people who subscribe to the ERA myth, but it cannot be justified by scientific climate arguments. I personally don’t think the political argument stacks up, as we are better focussing on industries with commercial reasons to support SRM, and they tend to be indifferent to emission reduction, viewing its only value in PR.

The problem is to work out what we can do to stabilise the planet. Emission reduction is marginal to that. Only SRM and associated thermal processes can slow tipping points. Once that baseline is in place, through political agreement to rebrighten the planet, carbon action then requires an engineering path to scale to hundred gigatonne scale, which will take a long time to achieve. Only GGR offers such a pathway. Emission reduction actively blocks such a pathway, firstly due to the physical reality that reduction cannot deliver the required below zero net result. As well, the politics of ERA brings misallocation of resources, opportunity cost, the fallacy of moral hazard, and the scientific embarrassment of being caught in an obsolete paradigm.

I don’t accept your claim of rapidly reducing costs of renewables. With no disrespect to you for flagging it, given its broad support, on close examination this claim unfortunately looks very incomplete, if not a propaganda lie. Countries with high wind and solar penetration in their energy systems have the most expensive power. That is because renewables are intermittent, but customers require reliable power. Renewables need baseload backup that its boosters leave out of their cost estimates, as they also leave out transmission costs. The Levelized Cost of Energy for renewables often omits grid balancing, frequency regulation, curtailment, and firming costs. It also excludes the cost of long-distance transmission from remote solar/wind sites to urban load centres.

You are right to observe that GGR will have to be undertaken at a such a rate that it at the very least balances emissions. As you say, whether this is possible in the medium to long term future remains to be seen. The answer to that challenge is that when something is necessary, people can make it possible. Consider the alternative. As Herb Simmens has emphasized, the alternative to large scale GGR is a future with 500 or 600 ppm CO2e, or even higher. That is a world whose risks do not bear thinking about, in view of the fragility and sensitivity of Earth Systems. Coral reefs are already condemned by the current climate, unless there is urgent cooling intervention. Higher long term GHG levels are such a multiple disaster that the security and stability focus has to be preventing that coming about. The necessity of return toward Holocene GHG levels will be the mother of invention of effective GGR technologies.

Emission reduction should be supported by economic and environmental needs, but we should stop pretending it is a climate answer. When governments have money to spend on mitigating climate change, they should allocate it to the most efficient and effective methods. The Royal Society estimated sunlight reflection is 1000 times better value for money than decarbonization as a way to mitigate climate change. That people just ignore this and so adamantly argue against sunlight reflection indicates that the debate is political, not scientific. The science is on the side of sunlight, the best disinfectant.

What should really make us uncomfortable is the high probability that decarbonisation cannot make a significant contribution to preventing climate collapse.

Regards

Robert Tulip

*The 0.16% figure assumes that annual emissions will go into sinks at the same rate as past emissions, a reasonable order of magnitude first level assumption.

From: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>

Cc: HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

Hi Herb and Robert,

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Once upon a time in the green energy transition.docx

Michael MacCracken

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Jul 23, 2025, 3:09:48 PM7/23/25

to Vyt Garnys (CETEC), GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, rob...@rtulip.net, Ron Baiman, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Dear Robert--Though there are two messages below before getting to your explanation about changes in cloud cover, I just have to reply to this as it makes no sense to me. This is not to say that the change in albedo is not an important contributor to the recent acceleration of warming, but I find the explanation about how it is occurring just not at all reasonable.

My main complaint is that the extra heat is leading to evaporation of clouds. As I tried to explain in my previous email that favored the explanation there, the warming is making it so the clouds don't form in the first place. So all this discussion of evaporating clouds makes no sense to me. What has been happening, to my mind, is that warming of the oceans has reached a point where the marine stratus clouds no longer form. Clouds are very short-lived and form only under certain conditions--well, ocean warming has been making it so that the clouds do not form in the first place, doing so because there is not a strong enough inversion to allow accumulation of sufficient water vapor to form the marine stratus clouds just below the inversion. Instead, with a weak inversion, descending dry air mixes into the boundary layer and, as a result, the humidity there never reaches a high enough level to enable clouds to continue to form.

I guess one could imagine conditions being such that clouds could form at night and then disappear during the day, but neither the ocean temperature nor temperature of the descending air likely change enough to lead to marine stratus clouds forming and then evaporating every day, and that may be how the transition started. You don't mention what the observations are showing as the extent of marine cloud variations over the diurnal cycle (their presence at night would tend to keep the ocean warmer than were they not there).

So, unless there are detailed other studies showing your hypothesis, I think it best to be saying that the warming of the oceans is weakening the inversion that was needed for the marine status to form, and this is allowing even more sunlight in to reach the surface and further warming the ocean that further weakens the inversion that needs to be there for the stratus to form. That is a positive feedback--and there is a point where this can happen that comes after conditions that were not strong enough to make it happen, so there was a point of transition that can be called a tipping point as well, just as there is a point of no return that can be identified as a tipping point of going from conditions of when clouds can form and when they cannot. This is not the same, however, as saying the heat coming in is actually evaporating clouds (as if this is something that happens every day in an ongoing manner).

If you have literature to the contrary, I'd like to see it.

Best, Mike

Michael MacCracken

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Jul 23, 2025, 3:51:19 PM7/23/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Robert--Without diminishing the need for climate intervention, I do have to object to a few points in your response.

1. In the US at least, solar and wind are the least cost sources of generation of electricity and this is becoming more and more true over time. Yes, if you look at California for which these sources of electricity are becoming dominant, the rates consumers pay for electricity are high, but not due to the cost of the electricity or due to intermittency--the high cost is due to the fact that the existing transmission system has led to wildfires in conditions that are hot and windy, and that cost needs to be recovered. And it is at these time where electricity is in very high demand that non-renewably sourced electricity is becoming a larger source of electricity. In Texas, the cold spell that led to the high cost of electricity was because the cold led to problems with coal and other fossil fuel sources, not due to problems caused by the renewables.

2. What is needed in the US is a cost-efficient transmission system that can enable using the vast solar and wind resources that the US has available to us. Alexander (Sandy) MacDonald, formerly head of NOAA labs, had an op-ed on this in January (https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5114155-us-energy-revolution-supergrid/). Yes, there is the need for some other types of sources (e.g., geothermal, nuclear, etc.) and storage of electricity (e.g., pressurized gas in underground caverns, batteries, etc.) and probably having some natural gas (later biogas) powered turbines ready to fill in when national harvesting of wind (that blows most at night) and solar (that is most abundant during the day) are not quite sufficient, etc. A fully renewable supply for the US, not just for the electric grid to be net-zero, but for the whole US economy to become net-zero) is possible and projections have the cost of supply and transmission lower than we have now with the fossil fuel-powered system). We just have to do it and get over the false objections about intermittency (yes, and individual location can be intermittent, but what matters is if the continental-scale system suffers from intermittency--and that does not have to be the case).

So, ERA is possible--and the US CO2 emissions are of order 5 GtCO2 per year, so GtCO2 transitions are feasible, if we make the right decisions--and right now the US is making all the wrong decisions--but there are those working to change this as it makes sense for lots of reasons beyond decarbonization. And China and Europe are moving in that direction as well. There are lots of reasons why reducing and ending CO2 emissions would make the albedo enhancement you call for easier to accomplish and more sustainable over time, so helping to really get the temperature back down.

What I would suggest to you is that going from one one-focus approach (namely ERA) to another (albedo enhancement) seems to me not the message for the world--the world has dawdled so long that we now need a comprehensive approach doing all we can (so both of these and building up CDR as well), and so the Triad. Where I agree with you especially is that the albedo enhancement cannot be just an add-on with a continuing major focus only on ERA--all must be major efforts if we are going to really deal with the issue--none can be underplayed. And as to cost, not doing them all will lead to consequences far more costly in dollars, death, and destruction than doing what is needed in support of them all.

Best, Mike

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/02c401dbfbd3%2402016a40%2406043ec0%24%40rtulip.net.

Tom Goreau

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Jul 23, 2025, 4:03:35 PM7/23/25

to Michael MacCracken, rob...@rtulip.net, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Great points, Mike, but please use ER to avoid confusion, not ERA!

ERA is a nonsense phrase because all proponents of ER support simultaneous CDR as well to make ER effective, so adding the superfluous A for “alone” is a small political lie (but hardly THE BIG ONE).

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/planetary-restoration/defd1438-4a5a-44f6-81f1-4f0143cce2ce%40comcast.net.

Ron Baiman

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Jul 23, 2025, 5:35:58 PM7/23/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Colleagues,

Correction: figures in my prior post to this thread refer to SWCRE (SW cloud Radiative Effect) on absorbing SW solar (not net balance or EEI) - just noticed this error when going over this again in another discussion.

Also, I think the estimates in the Tselioudis et al. 2025 paper that I’ve been harping on are consistent with Mike’s hypothesis (following some but not all of of Robert T’s explanations) that the added humidity from from global warming is not resulting in more clouds because of a weaker and smaller inversion boundary (due to ocean surface warming) and this results in increasing Hadley cell circulation elevating and removing the humid air,

but when the humid air falls out again in more northern latitudes it does this again in a smaller storm band with a weaker inversion boundary and so fewer clouds on the downside as well- assuming I got this all more or less right!

(Hoping Mike will correct if not!)

Best,

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 20, 2025, at 3:08 PM, Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com> wrote:

Dear Robert, Mike, et al.,

Following Mike's comments and at the risk of adding even more complexity to this discussion, I'm thinking that the problem may be that the climate system is a complex multi-dependent system in which it is often difficult to determine causality and therefore what is "tipping or being tipped". What we know for sure is that increased GHG emissions are caused by humans (and we choose to believe and more importantly act on the belief that we have at least some degree of free will). All the other global warming impacts are in some sense effects of this.

So the most important findings from the "tipping point" research may be trying to isolate tipping elements that can be "operationalized" - that is, that we think can be influenced for the better (for humans and other living species) by humans. In this regard modeling suggests that there are "reversible tipping points" like Arctic Summer Sea Ice (SSI) and loss of clouds (both of which may be slowed or reversed by SAI especially if it is specifically targeted at SSI and reversing the narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Based on the paper discussed in the post copied below - ITCZ narrowing is one of the core climate "general circulation" effects that is causing (some portion of) 80% or 0.37 W/m2 of the 0.45 W/m2 increased "Earth Energy Imbalance" (EEI) from loss of SW cloud reflectivity (based on the study discussed below only about 20% of this imbalance increase has to do cloud composition - that is if I got this right - for example from general increases in humidity) . Another paper suggests that SAI targeted at SSI loss and ITCZ narrowing, along with: 3) global temp, 4) hemispherically balanced temp and 5) equator to pole balanced temp (see p. 12 of: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-3974/), may be particularly effective.

These kinds (SSI and ITCZ) tipping points that are reversible with human agency in human time scales are ones that we want to work on.

Other apparently irreversible tipping points (in human time scales) like Antactic and Greenland ice sheet loss, and AMOC, etc. are ones that we want to cool as fast as possible to avoid (see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/393570082_The_interaction_of_solar_radiation_modification_with_Earth_system_tipping_elements).

So what are the most important "levers" in the climate system that have the most beneficial impact? It seems that reducing overall warming and targeting SSI and ITCZ (for cloud recovery) with SSI and other methods possibly per this (still in progress) chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GNOduxuL7u7NaPScCiN4SknPWJxlRfpp/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true may be a good way to start.

Best,
Ron

" --------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 23, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Global cloud cover is shrinking
To: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>
Cc: Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, Douglas MacMartin <dgm...@cornell.edu>, Wake Smith <wake...@hks.harvard.edu>, healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>, Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk>, Gregory Slater <ten...@gmail.com>, Michael MacCracken <mmacc...@oceanaenergy.com>

In the NOAC meeting today, I was asked to repost a link to this paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114882

And also my understanding below of this (based on Mike's quick summary). And one further point. The 80%/20% is based on existing relative influences. Obviously if the 20% of clouds can increase their reflectivity relative to the 80% of general circulation or vice/versa - these proportions will change.

"Thank you Mike.

I take it the "stormy belts" you're referring to are the three described at the bottom of the first page:
"They found a poleward shift of the midlatitude storm clouds, similar to that found in the earlier study of Bender et al. (2012), a poleward expansion of the subtropical low cloud fraction region, and a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)."

and that this paper confirms using the 2021-2023 satellite data" (bottom of p. 2) the (earlier) results described above, measured by looking at slopes of the three bands in Figure 2, p. 4?

So that, from the middle of p. 2:
"Regimes of large cloud cover and strong SW cloud radiative cooling are defined in the low latitudes and the two high latitude zones, representing the wet tropics associated with the ITCZ and the midlatitude storm tracks respectively. The trends in the areal coverage of the strong cloud radiative cooling regimes over the past 24 years are examined along with the
trends in the SW radiative effects of the clouds within each regime. This allows the decomposition of the global solar radiation trends into circulation related changes in the areal coverage of the large and small cloud cover regimes and cloud process related changes in the radiative properties of the clouds in each regime."
this paper attempts to measure the relative influences (citing one of your favorite words!) of the general "circulation related changes" (described in the first citation above) and "cloud process changes" that might be impacted by tropospheric aerosol, on the increase in EEI?
Concluding that (last sentence before "Discussion" section on p. 6):
"As a result, of the 0.45 W/m2/decade global SW cloud radiative warming trend, 0.37 W/m2 can be attributed to the contraction of the world's midlatitude storm and tropical convection and stratocumulus regimes."
So that over 80% of the increase in EEI is due to circulation related changes and less than 20% to "cloud process changes"?

And that this would seem to imply fairly constrained limits to the ability of tropospheric aerosols to reverse the global EEI increase, but would not apply to stratospheric aerosol as for example SAI might be deployed to reverse the narrowing of the ITCZ (Panel (c), figure 3 in Brody et al. 2025 paper) - so aerosol injection (in the stratosphere) could impact general circulation as well as cloud process affects?

Best,
Ron"

On Sun, Jul 20, 2025 at 8:33 AM <rob...@rtulip.net> wrote:

Thank you Mike for your thoughtful explanation of the exclusion of clouds as tipping elements. This should be a central climate debate.
It seems a critical flaw in prevailing climate models and tipping point frameworks is revealed by the breakdown of the distinction you describe between internal and external processes in the climate system. This distinction fails to recognise the primary warming role of tropical cloud loss.
The conventional classification you describe—treating cloud processes as “internal” to the atmosphere—has led to their framing as fast feedbacks rather than as tipping elements. But this view ignores the slow feedbacks inherent to the cloud system. Therefore the exclusion of clouds from climate models collapses against the physical reality that anthropogenic heat is now driving large-scale evaporation of low marine clouds, fundamentally altering Earth’s energy balance and heating the planet.
As James Hansen and colleagues argue in Global Warming in the Pipeline (2023), the primary cause of accelerating planetary heating is the loss of cloud reflectivity, especially over the oceans. This is not simply an atmospheric variation—it is a threshold-crossing process, where accumulated heat drives the phase transition of water from liquid to gas, thinning clouds and reducing albedo in a powerful positive feedback loop.
Decrease of cloud cover is the flipside of increased water vapour. Clouds are visible liquid while vapour is invisible gas. Both are part of the same evaporation-heat feedback loop driving the thermodynamic logic of planetary heat. As temperatures rise, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, increasing humidity. This evaporating heat thins low clouds, especially marine stratocumulus, converting their water from liquid to gas, reducing planetary albedo reflection and allowing more sunlight to be absorbed in land and sea as heat.
Our darker and less reflective world brings a self-reinforcing thermodynamic loop: heat drives evaporation and evaporation drives heat. Evaporation increases water vapour (a greenhouse gas) and decreases cloud cover (a reflective shield), further accelerating the energy imbalance.
Evaporation of clouds is a primary cause of the current growth in radiative forcing and heat. Hansen estimates that albedo loss accounts for 80% of near-term warming, and that cloud loss contributes 62% of that albedo decline. This implies that roughly half of current warming is driven by cloud loss, making clouds, by any meaningful definition, the primary planetary tipping point.
Cloud-heat feedbacks meet the criteria of a tipping element, as a self-reinforcing, nonlinear shift that moves the system into a destabilised state. Yet, cloud-heat feedback remains largely overlooked in the tipping point literature, apparently because it arises from what has historically been classified as an “internal” process of the Earth System. That downgrading of clouds partially explains why the scientific tipping point community expresses such disdainful incomprehension of the primary need to restore planetary albedo.
The cloud–heat feedback remains under-recognised—even though the physics are well established, the potential impact is extreme, and the evidence is mounting that it is already driving current warming. Tipping points are meant to identify nonlinear transitions with planetary consequences. Low cloud loss should be front and centre in the discussion.
The internal–external distinction previously used in climate models no longer holds. The human-driven energy imbalance of clouds as tipping elements is external in origin, yet it now triggers a cascade of internally modelled atmospheric responses—with cloud evaporation chief among them—that have become the dominant pathway of planetary destabilisation.
It is therefore complacent and dangerous for leading analysts such as Lenton, Rockström, and McKay to exclude tropical cloud evaporation from the list of recognised tipping points. This omission blindsides policy and distracts attention from the real centre of gravity in the climate crisis—not just emissions, but the collapse of Earth’s reflective albedo shield.
To avoid catastrophic warming, we must reverse the loss of the albedo layer as the central planetary tipping element. Earth’s Albedo Layer is the tipping element most urgently in need of active, restorative intervention, through an Albedo Accord, modelled on the success of the Montreal Protocol.
Regards
Robert Tulip

My June 2025 article in The Hill is at https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5357702-albedo-loss-global-warming/

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Ron Baiman

Sent: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:34 AM
To: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>

Cc: H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; rob...@rtulip.net; HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [HCA-list] Re: [prag] Planetary Boundaries: Navigating Our Limits

Thank you Mike! This is very helpful (to me at least)!
Best,
Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 19, 2025, at 4:22 PM, 'Michael MacCracken' via Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Dear Robert, Herb, etc.--
No guarantee I can provide a better explanation than AI, but let me give it a try.
I'd say that the reason that reduction of clouds has not not listed as a tipping point is that cloud variations have historically been seen as n internal processes in the atmosphere. Discussion of climate change has devoted a lot of attention to internal versus external aspects of the system. Originally the calculated part of the "Earth system" was pretty much the atmosphere and so processes in the atmosphere were considered internal and effects on the atmosphere from outside (like volcanic eruptions, changes in the CO2 concentration, etc.) were considered external and were imposed on the atmosphere. And so the cloud change effect being discussed would be considered an internal process that would be referred to as a positive feedback rather than an external process, even though it might be that at some temperature, etc. the feedback might increase in intensity.
Just as one could attribute the warming we've experienced to the decrease in clouds, the same type of formulation could be use to say that it is the growing amount of water vapor in the atmosphere that is responsible for the warming (so, should there be a protocol to limit the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere). With the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, the amount of water vapor holding capacity goes up about 7% per degree C and this then leads to an amplified effect on rainfall and more--there is not as clear a relationship with clouds, but there is some relationship such that the amount of low clouds goes down as the temperature goes up and this lets in more solar and further warms--is this then not just an internal process?
Now the definition of the Earth system has expanded over the years as models have gotten better and so there are more internal processes included--the oceans, the cryosphere, etc. An example of a now internal process is ice-albedo feedback, the warmer it gets, the less ice, the greater the absorption of solar and the warmer it gets, etc. For the larger Earth system, this is now treated as an internal process. I will admit (point out) that it is a bit inconsistent calling the sea ice effect a tipping point when it is an internal process and then not calling the cloud albedo relationship a tipping point presumably because it is an internal feedback process in the atmosphere.
And the newest models calculate the carbon cycle and even aspects of the cryosphere, so permafrost thawing is now an internal process, but is also counted as a tipping point although the processes involved are being included as internal to the calculations. Same with AMOC and other ocean current-related aspects.
Where the problem seems to perhaps be is in not yet (this is all a pretty new area of study) having some consistent definitions and not yet having fully explored the potential for interventions. So, brightening clouds is climate intervention but clouds going to zero albedo (so disappearing) is referred to as an internal process and restoring them would be intervention. The water vapor effect increasing due to a fixed law being considered a process but effects to vary from this relationship (e.g., suppressing evaporation) being considered an intervention because they are human-induced even though natural processes change the regional water vapor mixing ratio all the time.
My guess is that for a while we'll just have to muddle through with not fully satisfactory terminology and differentiations. I don't think it intentional--just that history in the field has led to certain customs prevailing, and that the full range of possibilities relating to some of these aspects have yet to be fully thought through and evolved to a new internally consistent formulation.
Best, Mike

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John Nissen

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Jul 23, 2025, 5:54:27 PM7/23/25

to GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, Peter Fiekowsky, rob...@rtulip.net, Thomas Goreau, hsim...@gmail.com, healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com, planetary-...@googlegroups.com, healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com, Dan Miller

Hi Ron,

Biochar for CDR

You started this thread because of something I said about biochar being an example of CDR putting life and carbon into soils. I also proposed a scenario in which CDR was at twice the rate of emissions, which would mean drawdown of 80 GtCO2 per year. You suggest that 10 GtCO2 might be possible with biochar but certainly not 100 GtCO2. But if you divide 80 GtC02 by the world's population, you get 10 tons of CO2 per person per year, which translates to an average of 2.73 tons of biochar carbon to put in the soil per person each year. If the soils are improved, giving increased life underground and increased crop yields above ground (the residue to be recycled to produce biochar and biofuel), then money can be made. Add into this the possible subsidy of up to $50 per ton through an offset (acceptable to typical petrol/gas consumers as adding only a small cost}, and one can imagine a business case for a global CDR industry based on biochar scaled up to removing 80 GtCO2 per year. This business would no doubt be based in the Global South, helping with food production and lowering reliance on artificial fertiliser, made from fossil fuels. It is a win, win, win, win solution for lowering the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.

BTW, one could include biochar.under the general heading of "regenerative agriculture".

SRM for CDR

Dan points out that SRM can be quite efficient at drawdown, through lowering surface temperatures. For example the cold AMOC water absorbs CO2: "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a significant role in the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, acting as a carbon sink. When the AMOC weakens, as is projected under climate change, its ability to transfer CO2 to the deep ocean decreases, potentially leading to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and accelerated global warming" (Google AI).

OIF for CDR

And then Peter F points out that ocean iron fertilisation (OIF) is extremely efficient at drawdown. We know that from experiments by Russ George, though his results were disgracefully confiscated by the Canadian government under pressure from ERA disciples and from "Hands Off Mother Earth" zealots. OIF is just one of a number of techniques, under the heading of "regenerative aquaculture", corresponding to "regenerative agriculture" on land.

Conclusion

My conclusion (but I am not an expert in this field) is that an average of 80 GtCO2 drawdown per annum, sustained for three decades, is a reasonable scenario for reaching 350 ppm CO2 within the next four or five decades using a combination of the above techniques. It could also be branded as net 40 GtCO2 negative emissions. Net zero would be reached halfway to reaching 80 GtCO2 per annum CDR, assuming emissions remain around 40 GtCO2 per annum. Thus net zero would be achieved well before 2050, an internationally agreed target.

Cheers, John

Ron Baiman

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Jul 23, 2025, 5:57:55 PM7/23/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, H simmens, HPAC

Dear Colleagues,

One other short comment.

I think that using “cloud albedo loss” as an easy to understand general theme of more reflectivity is excellent.

However, in my view - for a deeper dive “near-term cooling” is preferable as not all albedo increases are the same. The ones that cool best are high up. Also per the (still in progress) HPAC urgent response WG chart other TRM ways (like methane ER and removal) to get short term cooling may also be helpful: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1DK4OvG7bTG7wMUB7btYHOhxNCsNvbMH2/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true

Best,

Ron

Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 23, 2025, at 4:35 PM, Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com> wrote:

Dear Colleagues,

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 23, 2025, 7:05:44 PM7/23/25

to Michael MacCracken, Vyt Garnys (CETEC), GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, Ron Baiman, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Thomas Goreau

Thanks very much Mike, your clarification here is partially correct. My use of the term evaporation to describe what is happening to tropical clouds is a simplification of the observation that the loss of clouds is due to both increased evaporation and the failure of clouds to form.

Destruction of the inversion lid means that water in the atmosphere is increasingly present as gas rather than as liquid. Overall, it is reasonable to use the term evaporation for this collapse in cloud volume. It is literally true that tropical clouds are evaporating, but only in part. Cloud droplets can evaporate when dry, warm air mixes with the moist air of the cloud. This process is called entrainment. However, when people speak of "clouds evaporating" in the context of climate change, they're often referring to a decline in cloud cover, due to the combination of actual evaporation of existing cloud droplets, and inhibited cloud formation in the first place.

So, while some low clouds do evaporate as they lose the thermodynamic conditions to remain stable, in the broader climate sense, the phrase as I have used it metaphorically includes failure of formation as well.

The loss of the inversion lid does cause direct evaporation of clouds. The inversion lid (a warm, dry air layer capping the cooler, moist marine boundary layer) is crucial for maintaining stratocumulus cloud decks over subtropical oceans. When this lid weakens or collapses, the moist boundary layer becomes less stratified, and vertical mixing increases. This leads to entrainment of dry, warm air from above, which evaporates cloud droplets from the top down. In parallel, the absence of a strong inversion suppresses the conditions needed to form clouds in the first place. So, collapse of the inversion layer enables evaporation of clouds already formed and prevents new clouds from forming—a double loss of planetary albedo.

You are right that failure of clouds to form cannot strictly speaking be called evaporation. Evaporation is the phase transition of liquid water to vapor. If clouds never form, there is no liquid to evaporate. However, in climate discourse, the decline of cloud cover—whether by actual evaporation or inhibited condensation—is often loosely referred to as "cloud loss" or even "evaporation of clouds," especially in metaphorical or system-level discussions. A precise term for this would be reduced cloud fraction or suppressed cloud formation due to thermodynamic destabilization.

So I would say your description of my language here as “just not at all reasonable” overstates the argument against evaporation, and does not take into account the value of a simplified description of the physical processes.

✅ Summary

Question	Short Answer
Are tropical clouds literally evaporating?	Yes, some are, due to entrainment and warming.
Does inversion loss cause direct evaporation?	Yes, via enhanced mixing and destabilization.
Is failure to form clouds "evaporation"?	No, but both result in reduced cloud cover.

Based on large eddy simulations (LES), observational studies (e.g. using satellite data like MODIS and CERES), and climate model diagnostics (e.g. Schneider et al. 2019), a rough heuristic might look like:

Mechanism	Approximate Contribution to Cloud Loss
Entrainment-driven evaporation (clouds formed but thinned or dissipated from above)	~50–70%
Failure to form (clouds not condensing due to thermodynamic instability or weak inversion)	~30–50%

⚠️ Note: These are illustrative ranges, not hard numbers—used to communicate relative importance rather than empirical precision.

🧬 Entrainment Dominates in Stratocumulus Regions

In marine subtropical stratocumulus zones, cloud dissipation by entrainment is the primary mechanism.
Drying and heating of the free troposphere enhances entrainment instability, accelerating thinning from the top down.

🌀 Failure to Form Dominates in Deep Tropics

In the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) or warm pool areas, rising SSTs and increasing atmospheric lapse rates suppress low-level cloud formation altogether.
This is especially important for shallow cumulus clouds over oceans.

🔍 Supporting Research

Schneider et al. (2019, Nature Geoscience) simulated a “stratocumulus breakup” at high CO₂ where entrainment instability triggered complete cloud collapse.
Zhou et al. (2021) and Myers & Norris (2020) show tropical low cloud cover decline correlates with reduced inversion strength and enhanced free-tropospheric warming—conditions that both prevent formation and favor entrainment.

Regards

Robert Tulip

This reply was written with assistance of ChatGPT

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GRETCHEN & RON LARSON

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Jul 24, 2025, 1:46:47 AM7/24/25

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John et al:

I've run out of time tonight, but want the recipients to know that I would be neglecting my self-imposed duty to promote biochar if I only defended my "unsubstantiated" 10 GtCO2/yr value below. Tomorrow, more on how you could be correct at 100.

Also to ask if you have seen my recent note to you and this same group on how biochar can help with Arctic ice preservation (your equivalent to my biochar). This because much biochar production doesn't use the syngas to produce energy needed for your pumping large amounts of water. Should be many ships scheduled for dismantling that could have a few more years pumping water all day - but not in the same spot. The biochar doesn't care where it's produced and its sale coupled with carbon credits could make salty ice fairly inexpensive.

And yes to your noting below biochar's connection to "regenerative agriculture". The important point is that both should be seen as investments and not costs. Not true for most CDR approaches. Can also say the same for "reforestation".

Ron

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rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 24, 2025, 8:10:20 AM7/24/25

to Tom Goreau, Michael MacCracken, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Tom,

Thanks for your comment. However, your claim that ERA (Emission Reduction Alone) is “a nonsense phrase” ignores some widespread views. ERA is in fact a highly relevant term that reflects a dominant and deeply entrenched mindset in mainstream climate discussion—prioritising emission reduction while rejecting, downplaying or deferring CDR and albedo restoration.

I'm surprised you suggest that “all proponents of emission reduction support CDR”. This is simply not borne out in practice. Many prominent voices in the climate movement and policy world oppose, delay or minimize CDR:

The Moral Hazard Fallacy—that cooling can be achieved by ERA unless undermined by CDR and sunlight reflection—is widely invoked to justify marginalizing or postponing CDR. This is a political judgment masquerading as physical realism.
Many climate scientists reject negative emissions as nothing more than a convenient device for models to fudge the problem of overshoot of IPCC heat targets.
Environmental justice organizations reject large-scale CDR (especially BECCS and DAC) on grounds of land use, energy intensity and social equity.
Grassroots movements such as Thunberg’s Fridays for Future and Extinction Rebellion frequently dismiss CDR as a dangerous distraction, rooted in techno-utopianism and economic evasion.
Mainstream policy frameworks like the IPCC AR6 and the IEA Net Zero roadmap include CDR but defer scale-up until after 2030, using it primarily to clean up overshoot—hardly strong support.

Possibly the most promising CDR approach—ocean iron fertilization—has been the target of intense political opposition, largely fuelled by moral hazard narratives rather than scientific evidence. This has left us critically unprepared to remove legacy emissions at scale.

The point of using “ERA” as a term is not to caricature, but to diagnose a real and damaging policy asymmetry: emissions cuts are widely assumed to be morally and politically safe and necessary, while CDR and albedo strategies are marginalized or delayed despite the urgency of the climate trajectory. This imbalance prevents the development of an integrated strategy equal to the scale of the crisis. Questioning the dominance of ERA risks perpetuating a major blind spot in climate policy.

Regards

Robert Tulip

Tom Goreau

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Jul 24, 2025, 8:21:59 AM7/24/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

CO2 can ONLY be stabilized at safe levels by simultaneously increasing sinks and reducing sources!

Failure to do so guarantees runaway overshoot (see attachment).

Anyone proposing your form of ERA simply doesn’t understand how climate works, and ignorant comments should not be propagated, unwitting ignorance is only a bit worse than deliberate outright lies.

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

Jan Umsonst

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Jul 24, 2025, 8:49:59 AM7/24/25

to Tom Goreau, rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi all, we are on track for warming well above 2°C even if we stop today our emissions.

There is substantial warming in the pipeline (highly controversial discussed, but the warming in the pipeline fraction is correct)

Emission reductions alone won't help anymore to prevent catastrophic warming.

This means emission reductions won't be enough.

Main stream climate science managed till now the astonishing feat to underestimate everything. Further, main stream climate science regular needs years to catch up with reality which moved during that time further up the potential warming graph.

If we take recent developments and new findings we are already in a runaway global warming scenario which lurks ever more likely in the warming pipeline - just take the collapse of WAIS that we already breached and the melting rate dependent thermogenic methane feedback around Antarctica ...

That's just one of several GHG kickers we have now in the pipeline...

All the best

Jan

P.s. if references are wanted I provide!

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Chris Vivian

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Jul 24, 2025, 9:05:28 AM7/24/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Robert,

You made an error saying “And I am very uncomfortable that the IPCC for thirty major international meetings…”. It’s the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that has had 30 meetings not the IPCC.

Your blithe acceptance of continuing and increased emissions of CO2 takes no account of the impacts of increasing ocean acidification on sea life that has now been assessed as exceeding safe planetary boundaries - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.70238. Decades more CO2 emissions at increased levels will likely have a devasting effect on marine life. Consequently, I think that the Triad approach is the right one.

I support what Mike McCracken and Peter Lindenmayer said about the costs of renewables. In the UK the electricity costs are determined by the highest cost element in the fuel mix and that is invariably the cost of gas, a fossil fuel. You need to distinguish between the cost of electricity production and the cost paid by customers, two different things. This is discussed in the ‘Leading’ podcast hosted by Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart when they were joined by the Chief Executive of the UK Climate Change Committee and former CEO of Energy UK, Emma Pinchbeck - https://open.spotify.com/episode/5MJdFciMOSLSQgMplY3M4i.

Best wishes

Chris.

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Tom Goreau

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Jul 24, 2025, 9:09:01 AM7/24/25

to Jan Umsonst, rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy, Anastassia Makarieva, Ray Hayes

Clouds are moving faster as warming accelerates, and this will affect water and heat movement between cloud and vapor……..

Article
Open access

Published: 09 July 2025

Decadal changes in atmospheric circulation detected in cloud motion vectors

Nature volume 643, pages983–987 (2025)

Abstract

Changing atmospheric circulations shift global weather patterns and their extremes, profoundly affecting human societies and ecosystems. Studies using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9} indicate diverse circulation changes in recent decades but show discrepancies in magnitude and even direction, underscoring the urgent need for validation with independent, climate-quality measurements³. Here we show statistically significant changes in tropospheric circulation over the past two decades using satellite-observed, height-resolved cloud motion vectors from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)^10,11. Upper tropospheric cloud motion speeds in the mid-latitudes have increased by up to about 4 m s⁻¹ decade⁻¹. This acceleration is primarily because of the strengthening of meridional flow, potentially indicating more poleward storm tracks or intensified extratropical cyclones. The Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropics shifted poleward at rates of 0.42 ± 0.22 and 0.02 ± 0.14° latitude decade⁻¹ (95% confidence interval), respectively, whereas the corresponding polar fronts shifted at rates of 0.37 ± 0.31 and 0.31 ± 0.21° latitude decade⁻¹. We also show that the widely used ERA5 (ref. ¹²) reanalysis winds subsampled to the MISR are in good agreement with the climatological values and trends of the MISR but indicate probable ERA5 biases in the upper troposphere. These MISR-based observations provide critical benchmarks for refining reanalysis and climate models to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on cloud and atmospheric circulations.

rob...@rtulip.net

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Jul 24, 2025, 9:13:56 AM7/24/25

to Michael MacCracken, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Mike

Your observation that solar and wind are the least cost sources of generation of electricity may be true, but generation is only a small part of the price to consumers. As I said in my comment, the widely cited measure to justify the alleged renewable cost advantage, Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), often omits key costs - grid balancing, frequency regulation, curtailment, firming and transmission. A narrow focus on generation cost can generate a misleading comparison.

On a narrow LCOE basis (plant-level, energy-only), US utility solar and onshore wind may be cheapest, but this metric is routinely misapplied to a reliability problem. LCOE is not the cost of firm, reliable power. Once you include firming, long-duration storage, transmission build-out, curtailment, reserves, inertia and voltage support, the relevant metric is system LCFE (Levelized Cost of Firm Electricity). Under that lens, the “cheapest” claim is far less clear.

California’s prices are not only wildfire-cost recovery. Decades of underinvestment, rapid renewables penetration without commensurate firming and long-duration storage, costly peak gas retention, transmission expansion, and high retail cost recovery structures are all in the bill. Wildfires matter, but they are not the entire story. Intermittent resources can be low-cost contributors, but they do not, by themselves, deliver adequacy during rare extreme events. This isn’t an argument against renewables; it’s an argument against pretending that plant-level LCOE answers the system adequacy question.

Thanks for describing Sandy MacDonald’s supergrid vision. A HVDC backbone that truly flattens continental-scale intermittency is a multi-decade, permitting-constrained, capital-intensive project. We don’t have that time luxury if the temperature overshoot risk is this decade. And even over continental scales, correlated weather regimes (“dunkelflaute”-type events, multi-day heat domes, winter storms) still produce residual net-load gaps that require very large long-duration storage (still expensive and under-deployed), firm capacity (nuclear, geothermal, hydro, coal, gas), or demand destruction / managed blackouts, which are politically fragile. Transmission is mission-critical. Permitting to build HVDC at scale is likely to be difficult and slow, due to cross-jurisdictional complexity, strong local resistance, lengthy environmental assessment processes and lack of institutional priority. Don’t bank the climate on the timetable.

The feasibility of 5 GtCO₂/yr transitions is not relevant to the need to cool the planet in the 2020s–30s. Even if the US (and the world) executed an historically unprecedented energy transition flawlessly, the near-term heat we face is dominated by radiative imbalance/albedo loss, not the flow of new CO₂. Emission cuts improve long-term outcomes; they have weak leverage on the near-term planetary energy imbalance. I support CDR, but durable removals at climate relevant scale will involve a decades-long ramp.

The climate triad is compatible with a primary short term focus on albedo in view of sequencing and weight. Albedo can be restored in years with high cooling impact, making an Albedo Accord the top immediate priority. Ocean cooling, GGR and alkalinity are slower but are scaleable and necessary. Emission reduction also will take decades to have heat impact. That all means we need to reverse the critical path endorsed by IPCC. The model of emergency-room sequencing is to stop the haemorrhage (reduce the incoming heat via albedo), stabilise the patient (protect oceans and re-establish buffers), then undertake the lifestyle changes (CDR, deep structural decarbonisation) required for durable recovery. Physics and timescales mean the lever that cools the fastest must be moved first.

Firm, low-carbon power is indispensable. Even with a supergrid, reliable decarbonisation needs firm resources (nuclear, geothermal, hydro, CCS gas, long-duration storage). Pretending otherwise keeps costs and political blowback high. In the meantime, an Albedo Accord, like the Montreal Protocol for ozone, can deliver a narrow, enforceable global compact focused specifically on restoring planetary reflectivity/inversion stability, with rigorous monitoring (e.g., CERES, Argo, etc.) and adaptive management. We have to put the triad in the right physical order so we actually keep the ship afloat while we rebuild the engine room.

Regards

Robert Tulip

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oswald....@hispeed.ch

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Jul 24, 2025, 9:49:06 AM7/24/25

to rob...@rtulip.net, Michael MacCracken, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Hi Robert,

It appears to me much simpler to discuss what will happen in the next 20 years, rather than what should happen.

In the next 20 years

Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy.
Nuclear power will probably grow a little bit
Electricity demand will rise (AI…)
Wind and solar will grow considerably
CDR via DAC will remain miniscule
SAI will not happen
MCB will grow a little bit
Autonomous taxis, buses and trucks will appear in our daily lives
Robots will become more visible in public institutions
Temperatures will rise to 1.8-2.0 °C above pre-industrial
Severe draughts, storms and floods will become frequent
Corals will suffer
The Amazon will turn into a CO2 source
Sea-levels will rise by some centimeters

Now, in that situation, there is one straw we can cling to. It is really only a straw, but it might be the last one, and therefore it might become attractive: Greenhouse Gas Removal.

GGR is the one option left. IPCC will agree to it, politics have no problem with it, it is rather cheap, and it is safe.

I am confident😊

Regards

Oswald Petersen

Atmospheric Methane Removal AG

Lärchenstr. 5

CH-8280 Kreuzlingen

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Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas

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Jul 24, 2025, 10:42:13 AM7/24/25

to Peter Fiekowsky, Tom Goreau, GRETCHEN & RON LARSON, rob...@rtulip.net, johnnis...@gmail.com, hsim...@gmail.com, healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com, planetary-...@googlegroups.com, healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com

I have two comments to this extraordinarily rambling thread, no three... Please create more threads for different topics; the best cost of CDR is not $176 ton CDR and, about where will the money come from.

The vast majority of the works that claim CDR costs with air capture are either hypothetical, bench, and all are scenario driven. Real world demonstrations are proprietary with the exception of Orca and Carbon Engineering. Peter Eisenberger (RIP-global Thermostat) and many others were confounded at why Orca's price was so high. Peter finally determined it was their contactor. Keith 2018 and Carbon Engineering are the only demonstration that is transparent and not hording proprietary secrets because there are tremendous revenues in the pipeline and already approved in IRS 45Q, that pays up to $180 ton with union labor where mined CO2 costs $40 to $60 ton. Pay... Obama started 45Q, trump tripled it and the IRA tripled it again. It has no cap either individually or cumulatively and pay goes to the biggest players in industry so it will remain through the trump administration. The precedent here is pollution treatment. Who cleans up inadvertently released pollution so we can be safe? We do. Taxpayers pay to keep taxpayer lives safe in whatever country one can name. The question of where the money will come form needs to consider where the $100,000 gigadollars (US) in global GDP annually comes from, and the gigathings it produces because the 8 gigapeople on Earth that need or want.

Industry-wide, costs for amines are lower than for Keith's Carbon Engineering lime-potash process. Keith 2018's scenario driven modeling of their 1,000 ton per year demonstration uses components widespread in industry with known scaling factors to make 1m tons per year, that Oxy will bring online unit 1 in the 3Q this year in the Permian, where Oxy has committed 99 other 1m ton per year units by 2035 under 45Q.

Cost of Keith 2018 is scenario driven and biased significantly high. Their $92 to $232 ton is based on natural gas energy at $0.03 to $0.05 kWh. Given renewables at $0.01 kWh today, and 87 percent of process costs are energy, with about half needing flame energy for oxidation, costs are $60 ton. Using natural gas produced by the remover that is almost free, cost are far below $60 ton.

Please, show me your references and I will show you where they are biased high. If one cannot, please stop repeating inaccurate information. The findings quoted may say these inaccurate things, but the findings, just like Kieth 2018, just like so many findings on direct cooling solutions, are based on scenarios and they are biased and the vast majority are biased high.

MeltOn

An Introduction to Advanced Climate Change
Bruce Melton PE, 2023
https://climatediscovery.org/Introduction_to_Advanced_Climate_Change_October_2023.ppt

History of Carbon Dioxide Removal
https://climatediscovery.org/History_of_Carbon_Dioxide_Removal_Draft.docx

Gigapeople, Gigachickens and Gigashoes
Why our giga task of engineered cooling solutions will be nothing different than life on Earth every day.
https://climatediscovery.org/Gigapeople_Gigashoes_and_Gigachickens.docx

Climate Emergency Response
The Urgent and Immediate Response Needed to Reverse Activated Climate Tipping With a Safe,
Sustainable and Equitable Target of Less Than 1.0˚C Warming Above Normal
September 2021
https://climatediscovery.org/Climate_Emergency_Response_Austin_September_2021.pdf

Bruce Melton PE
Director, Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3
President, Melton Engineering Services Austin
8103 Kirkham Drive
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On 7/21/2025 8:21 AM, Peter Fiekowsky wrote:

Tom- Good paper. It points to the power of crowd sourcing, which is what AI does. Think of that—29,000 research articles on CDR. As Ron points out, most carbon credits (another form of crowd sourcing) are in biochar.

I mentioned Dan Miller because he had a good contribution earlier.

As Ron points out, there is implied consensus that someone, somehow should come up with trillions of dollars for CDR. That’s the power of crowd sourcing. I remember thinking that in 1975, fifty years ago, when I first learned about global warming.

We now have fifty years of evidence that no one has a way to conjure up trillions of dollars per year for CDR. This is where physical reality and crowd sourcing take separate paths.

In physical reality, the money must come from real stakeholders for our children and grandchildren. That’s grandparents. Especially wealthy ones like the 3000 billionaires around the world, holding $16 trillion. I have a team organizing the “Family Office Consortium” to manage that. A family office is what a family with more than about $50 million has to run their investment and philanthropy.

What CDR method will be taken? Probably an engineering variation on what worked in 1992 to remove 17 Gt CO2—nitrogen fixation OIF (N-OIF). My group, DeepGreen Solutions is working to implement that. As I mentioned, the cost to get CO2 back to what we had when we were kids looks to be $1 billion per year through 2050—based on tests in 2012 and recent developments. That is less than 0.1% of the many trillions per year for a hypothetical biochar rollout (or other recent popular CDR methods).

We have 2 papers so far. One is in peer review this week.

The Pinatubo CO2 pause suggests a rapidly testable path to multi-Gt mCDR (preprint)

IEEE paper Implementing Climate Restoration This Decade

So with the score 2 against 29,000 research papers, physical reality is totally losing against crowd sourcing. It makes good sense to put your money on crowd sourced solutions.

But we’re up infinitely compared to 4 months ago, when the score was zero to 29,000. We’re picking up speed.

Conclusion: Prepare to switch sides to climate restoration using Nature’s N-OIF, around the end of the year.

Peter

From: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Date: Monday, July 21, 2025 at 4:08 

AM

To: GRETCHEN & RON LARSON <rongre...@comcast.net>, Peter Fiekowsky <pfi...@gmail.com>, rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>, johnnis...@gmail.com <johnnis...@gmail.com>, hsim...@gmail.com <hsim...@gmail.com>
Cc: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>, planetary-...@googlegroups.com <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>, healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: [CDR] Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal revealed as much larger through AI-enhanced systematic mapping

This new paper just posted points out that Biochar’s CDR potential has been greatly underestimated, as Peter Fiekowsky does again beneath Ron Larson’s response, and that there is a vast amount of work being done, far more than realized by most reviewers. The authors include many of the top experts on soil carbon.

Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal revealed as much larger through AI-enhanced systematic mapping

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61485-8

Authors

Sarah Lück, Max Callaghan, Malgorzata Borchers, Annette Cowie, Sabine Fuss, Matthew Gidden, Jens Hartmann, Claudia Kammann, David P. Keller, Florian Kraxner, William F. Lamb, Niall Mac Dowell, Finn Müller-Hansen, Gregory F. Nemet, Benedict S. Probst, Phil Renforth, Tim Repke, Wilfried Rickels, Ingrid Schulte, Pete Smith, Stephen M. Smith, Daniela Thrän, Tiffany G. Troxler, Volker Sick, Mijndert van der Spek & Jan C. Minx

18 July 2025

Abstract

Carbon dioxide removal plays an important role in any strategy to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Keeping abreast with the scientific evidence using rigorous evidence synthesis methods is an important prerequisite for sustainably scaling these methods. Here, we use artificial intelligence to provide a comprehensive systematic map of carbon dioxide removal research. We find a total of 28,976 studies on carbon dioxide removal—3–4 times more than previously suggested. Growth in research is faster than for the field of climate change research as a whole, but very concentrated in specific areas—such as biochar, certain research methods like lab and field experiments, and particular regions like China. Patterns of carbon dioxide removal research contrast with trends in patenting and deployment, highlighting the differing development stages of these technologies. As carbon dioxide removal gains importance for the Paris climate goals, our systematic map can support rigorous evidence synthesis for the IPCC and other assessments.

Source: Nature Communications

Peter

From: 'GRETCHEN & RON LARSON' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

To: rob...@rtulip.net <rob...@rtulip.net>; John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com>; Thomas Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Cc: HPAC <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Climate Alliance Healthy <healthy-clim...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: [HPAC] More on One CDR (and cooling) approach - Biochar

Robert et al. (adding Tom Goreau)

Thanks for your extensive 3-part addition to John Nissen's remarks. I got a lot out of your (below) message. Note thread name change.

In one recent message, John specifically referred favorably to biochar as his CDR example. Biochar differs from CDR others significantly by today being the strong leader in financial support. In part because of its high TRL rating. Hundreds of biochar companies globally. And a projected high growth rate.

But, besides having the lowest first cost, it can be (and usually is when in soils) also an investment. In the biochar world, we sometimes read of a payback beginning in the first year or two. And I think rare to find a biochar example when the first cost is not eventually repaid. Never true for BECCS and DACCS.

A new big EIA report just out on stove use in Africa. More soon on that, which could (but doesn't) talk about (high CDR) charcoal-making stoves. Mentioned because of Billions per year being assured.

There is also not enough anywhere relating biochar to clouds (and therefore "cooling". Clouds relate to biochar by both being so closely tied to biomass. More biochar means more biomass - and (presumably) therefore more clouds.

Hoping John will reenter on the biochar topic. Tom added because of his expertise on his way to accelerate biomass growth (with presumably more clouds).

Ron

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Michael MacCracken

unread,

Jul 24, 2025, 12:22:41 PM7/24/25

to oswald....@hispeed.ch, rob...@rtulip.net, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Oswald--You might add, assuming you are right and, among other likelihoods: (1) that the worsening of extreme conditions in vulnerable nations will lead to much greater generation of environmental refugees who will more forcibly seeking access to nations in mid-latitudes, creating tremendous national security tensions and disruptions; and (2) that the economic impacts and costs of recovery from extreme weather will rise in nations around the world, slowing or in some locations reversing the advance of social welfare..

Mike MacCracken

oswald....@hispeed.ch

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Jul 24, 2025, 1:14:44 PM7/24/25

to Michael MacCracken, rob...@rtulip.net, peterlin...@gmail.com, John Nissen, H simmens, HPAC, Planetary Restoration, Climate Alliance Healthy

Dear Michael,

you are absolutely right.

There is more:

The growth of world population will slow down.
Africa and India will gain wealth and will become very attractive places to do business.
The US will lose their singular status as the world’s leading nation.
World power will remain multi-centered and will shift eastwards.
White old men will lose their dominant grip on power.
Oil & gas production will peak and start to decline.
Coal will start to phase out.
Classic pollution has already peaked and will decline further.
Ice cover will shrink further.

…

Not all is bad, but most. I find it quite helpful, when discussing worldwide projects, to have in mind the projections which are already enshrined in current trends. It puts your (and my) aspirations in relation to reality. Of course there are some developments, e.g. wars, AI, technical novelties… which are unclear, but most future trends are in fact quite predictable, at least for 20 years.

Just my 2 cents of course

Oswald Petersen

Atmospheric Methane Removal AG

Lärchenstr. 5

CH-8280 Kreuzlingen