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Hi Gilles,
Could you please briefly describe where we would get the dataset using which to train the AI? We don't exactly have access to a few hundred Earth-like planets on which to run the experiment and collect the data.
I might be naive but for prediction even AI seems to need access to fundamental scientific mechanistic understanding, engineering process understanding, and climate response data, none of which exists for SAI.
Curiously,
Ye
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Ye, Gilles,
Artificial Intelligence could support a combination of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Marine Cloud Brightening. Very low dose SAI could be combined with MCB deployed to optimise local weather conditions, cool the planet and learn from experience with AI. Gradual information from this process, starting with field trials, would create the dataset needed for machine learning, alongside all the data from world meteorology. MCB can use AI to target how best to cool air rising into the Hadley and Ferrel and Polar Cells - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation#Latitudinal_circulation_features
Regards, Robert Tulip
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Hello John,
I am afraid that SAI will not be implemented the way it is suggested. The main reason is : There is no suggested development path, which starts with a smallscale solution which has some benefits and evolves into something bigger over time until it reaches the SAI scale. No government nor enterprise will start a large, risky climate intervention before such development has taken place and proven that the risks are manageable. Demanding it may even prove counter-productive in that it provokes a complete moratorium.
If albedo management proves at a small scale, then maybe such a development in the direction of SAI can become thinkable. The best would be to support these small MCB ventures at the Great Barrier Reef and go from there, maybe with the concept of Stephen Salter as next step.
Just my 2 cents of course
Oswald
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Why? Why? Why?
Why does everything have to be a competition amongst all these technologies?
I really don’t get this.
We are a minority amongst minorities.
We all realised climate change is a threat and we want to actively do something about it. – minority.
AND we all have realised that NetZero by itself will not do the trick and we need to actively address the topic of heat imbalance - massive minority amongst minority.
There is a lot of cash out there, cash is a commodity. It is not as if we are competing for the same scarce resource.
The fact that you might not be getting cash for it is NOT the fact someone else is telling a better cooling story.
It is because you are telling the wrong story to the wrong money sources.
A united front to drive the cooling topic, mutual support rather than constantly ripping into each other has a much bigger chance to get us somewhere.
All you need to do is to look at it from an investor perspective (yes, I used to be one of them) who reads all of this. They are confused. They are not tech savvy. All they see are mixed messages, a fragmented market. One group giving them a reason why NOT to invest into another group.
What they should be hearing is: Cooling is THE urgent solution and why that is, how much it will save. They need to get the point that they ask themselves, “OK, I get it, how do we do this”. Then you can guide them slowly towards the what. At the moment they are still stuck at the Why and all they hear are much more compelling stories about NetZero as everybody there is singing from the same hymn sheet.
From: 'Sev Clarke' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, September 24, 2023 1:53 AM
To: Robert Tulip <rob...@rtulip.net>; Ye Tao <t...@rowland.harvard.edu>; Gilles de Brouwer <gdebr...@gmail.com>; Sir David King <d...@camkas.co.uk>
Cc: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>; Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Eelco Rohling' via NOAC Meetings <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>;
Anton Keskinen <keskin...@gmail.com>; Professor Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; Hans van der Loo <hans.va...@iier.eu>; Wouter van Dieren | Inis Vitrin <wouter.v...@inisvitrin.nl>; Douglas Graham MacMartin <dgm...@cornell.edu>; Ellen Haaslahti
<el...@operaatioarktis.fi>
Subject: Re: A Stratospheric Gamble
Folks,
Rather that either SAI or MCB, AI and modelling might better be used to determine the effects of ocean albedo enhancement (AE) using the ocean brightening effect of my Buoyant Flakes on radiative balance. These would be both more controllable and localisable than either SAI or MCB, and would require much less in the way of specialist shipping, cost and atmospheric particle size observation. Much of the MRV might be done using existing satellite imagery. Scaling up would also be far easier, and the potential criticism that the method did not also address the principal cause (atmospheric CO2 concentrations) would also be largely avoided.
See
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Early AE pilots might well be included in the experiments being coordinated by Sir David’s CCR in various of the world’s oceans.
Cheers,
Sev
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Hi Sev, do you think the London Protocol places a higher barrier to entry for Buoyant Flakes or for MCB? I agree with you that AI should consider all cooling technologies. That will help measure and define their possible path to market and cooling return on investment. It is a matter of how long it will take for each method to adequately prove its safety and effectiveness, akin to a pharmaceutical drug trial. The climate currency should be impact on radiative forcing. Regards, Robert Tulip
From: 'Sev Clarke' via Planetary Restoration <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, September 24, 2023 10:53 AM
To: Robert Tulip <rob...@rtulip.net>; Ye Tao <t...@rowland.harvard.edu>; Gilles de Brouwer <gdebr...@gmail.com>; Sir David King <d...@camkas.co.uk>
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« GeoRestoration » as I use it is limited to actions which reduce the stock of GHG accumulated in the past 150 years, or restore albedo where it was lost. The way you describe « Geotherapy » it appears to be an umbrella word for basically all action against climate crisis, including mitigation. GeoRestoration is explicitly not mitigation. So you are right, GT is a larger concept.
In result: The two terms do not compete… which is good😊
Oswald
Von: noac-m...@googlegroups.com <noac-m...@googlegroups.com> Im Auftrag von Tom Goreau
Gesendet: Montag, 25. September 2023 17:05
An: oswald....@hispeed.ch; 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>; 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>; noac-m...@googlegroups.com
Betreff: Re: A Stratospheric Gamble
Geotherapy is a larger concept than Georestoration.
Geotherapy includes 1) scientifically sound diagnosis of the problem, 2) prescription of sound course of action to restore health balance, 3) Georestoration is that recommended course of action.
Not all Geoengineering is Georestoration………
From: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Date: Monday, September 25, 2023 at 6:26 AM
To: oswald....@hispeed.ch <oswald....@hispeed.ch>, 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>, 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>, noac-m...@googlegroups.com <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: A Stratospheric Gamble
SRM for correcting Earth’s temperature is part of a conscious geotherapy prescription for better planetary health, which can include both biological (biogeotherapy, often carbon based) and physics or engineering approaches in the broadest sense.
We have let the term geoengineering become defined in an overly narrow way to become a bogeyman for acid spraying the atmosphere, but it connotes MUCH more than that, and we should not let the term be misused (while we abandon nonsensical terms like “negative emissions export”).
From: oswald....@hispeed.ch <oswald....@hispeed.ch>
Date: Monday, September 25, 2023 at 6:20 AM
To: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>, 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>, noac-m...@googlegroups.com <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: AW: A Stratospheric GambleDear Tom,
is in this case GeoTherapy is another term for SRM?
GeoRestoration is in fact a term for GHG Removal. The climate crisis is not caused by increased solar radiation, and restoring the climate works not by « cooling the patient’s temperature » but by removing the cause of the problem.
I prefer not to use medical analogies, because in medicine there is a risk that the patient dies, whereas our planet as well as humans will certainly survive the climate crisis.
Regards
Oswald
Von: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Gesendet: Montag, 25. September 2023 12:10
An: oswald....@hispeed.ch; 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>; 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>; noac-m...@googlegroups.com
Betreff: Re: A Stratospheric Gamble
Wrong, Geotherapy is an evolutionary medical analogy (not a psychiatric one), the Earth is very sick from humans, its temperature is steadily rising towards severe heatstroke, and the first thing to do is stabilize the patient’s temperature while restoring the patient’s own temperature control mechanisms.
From: oswald....@hispeed.ch <oswald....@hispeed.ch>
Date: Monday, September 25, 2023 at 6:02 AM
To: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>, 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>, 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>, noac-m...@googlegroups.com <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: AW: A Stratospheric GambleDear Tom,
we are not in a psychiatrist’s office and earth is not a patient.
The term «therapy» resonates with the wrong associations…
Regards
Oswald
Von: Tom Goreau <gor...@globalcoral.org>
Gesendet: Montag, 25. September 2023 11:49
An: oswald....@hispeed.ch; 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>; 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>; noac-m...@googlegroups.com
Betreff: Re: A Stratospheric Gamble
There’s a word for this already!
Geotherapy has been the term used for more than 30 years for restoration of preindustrial climate.
It includes both BioGeotherapy (enhancing natural biogeochemical controls on climate, commonly called Nature Based Solutions, which is three words instead of one) and GeoEngineering (or physics-based solutions, which include all earth engineering, as well as SRM and SAI (which has mistakenly monopolized the term).
Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef AllianceChief Scientist, Blue Regeneration SL
President, Biorock Technology Inc.Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK
37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139
gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Skype: tomgoreau
Tel: (1) 617-864-4226 (leave message)
Books:
Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466595392
Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734
Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change
No one can change the past, everybody can change the future
It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think
Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away
“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer
From: oswald.petersen via NOAC Meetings <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>
Date: Monday, September 25, 2023 at 5:17 AM
To: 'John Fitzgerald' <greenkni...@gmail.com>, 'Renaud de RICHTER' <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Bruce Parker' <br...@chesdata.com>, noac-m...@googlegroups.com <noac-m...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: AW: A Stratospheric GambleDear John,
we all agree about this bad connotation. It is exactly why I try to find a new term for all GE methods which restore the climate and ocean. At the same time, my intention is to weaken the «moral hazard» argument, which is so often used against GE.
Peter F. calls it « climate restoration », other people e.g. IPCC talk about « negative emissions » but all of these cannot conceil the fact that EAMO, CDR and EW (…), even reforestation, are in fact GeoEngineering methods, if we like it or not.
The term Georestoration is meant to solve this very problem.
Regards
Oswald Petersen
AMR AG
Atmospheric Methane Removal AG
Lärchenstr. 5
CH 8280 Kreuzlingen
Tel: +41-71-6887514
Mob: +49-177-2734245
Von: John Fitzgerald <greenkni...@gmail.com>
Gesendet: Montag, 25. September 2023 10:52
An: Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Cc: oswald....@hispeed.ch; Bruce Parker <br...@chesdata.com>; noac-m...@googlegroups.com
Betreff: Re: A Stratospheric Gamble
Hello Oswald, et al.,
As Renaud points out, the term "geo-engineering" has such negative connotations that some people close their minds to further inquiry about anything with such a label. Some people in important positions with the capacity to advance research and development across a wide range of interventions have heard only about one or two kinds of climate interventions, and assume those are the only ways of solving the problem. That is why CIEIF (https://cieif.org) sent the attached letter to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Given that the National Academy of Sciences has already recommended further research on several methods of carbon sequestration and will shortly host another two day session on methane removal, (October 17-18), the OSTP should have known better than to report on only one method when Congress directed them to report on a wide range of methods. It will take more than one letter to educate decision-makers and we need to avoid triggering the "fight or flight" fear response that a misunderstood label can provoke.
Thank you,
John Fitzgerald
On Mon, Sep 25, 2023 at 4:30 AM Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com> wrote:
Oswald,
As a matter of fact, as the term geoengineering has bad connotation, the startups and the scientists working on CDR and on GHG-Removal (GGR) try to make a distinction. And the IPCC reports also differentiate them at list since AR4.
Bw
R
Le lun. 25 sept. 2023 à 10:23, oswald.petersen via NOAC Meetings <noac-m...@googlegroups.com> a écrit :
Hello Bruce,
there are some interesting thoughts in this, thank you.
I am wondering why the paper, which ist called «Geoengineering» (GE), looks exclusively at variations of albedo enhancement (AE).
No CDR, no atmospheric methane reduction, no enhanced weathering… all these other GE methods are missing. This could be repaired by calling the paper «Solar Geoengineering» or adding the missing options.
I enclose my paper on Georestoration to counterbalance it… 😊
regards
Oswald Petersen
AMR AG
Atmospheric Methane Removal AG
Lärchenstr. 5
CH 8280 Kreuzlingen
Tel: +41-71-6887514
Mob: +49-177-2734245
Von: noac-m...@googlegroups.com <noac-m...@googlegroups.com> Im Auftrag von Bruce Parker
Gesendet: Sonntag, 24. September 2023 22:15
An: noac-m...@googlegroups.com
Betreff: FW: A Stratospheric Gamble
There have been a lot of email discussions recently on specific “climate change” topics. I thought it might be useful to the group to have a series of documents that consolidates many of the comment and that would also provide a “handy reference”. Since many of the documents will be quite lengthy, it might make sense to eventually turn them into “searchable” web pages. I have attached a very rough draft for one on geoengineering. Any thoughts?
Bruce
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