Coal - sobering reading
Clive Elsworth
Coal - sobering reading: https://www.energyanalytics.org/research/coal-reality
It’s more evidence that Net Zero is still very far off, so SRM will be needed.
For example:
Coal remains foundational to modern civilization: Steel, cement, concrete, and most metals depend on it directly or indirectly in their supply chains. Without affordable, reliable baseload sources such as coal, energy costs rise, industrial capacity can become constrained, and broader economic outcomes may suffer46—especially today, with Western nations having offshored so much heavy industry to coal-reliant Asia.
And
By replacing old coal plants with modern ones, installing advanced flue-gas controls, and relocating heavy industry away from population centers, China improved environmental outcomes while combusting ever more coal.
There are lots of numbers in the article as well.
Clive
DrPete Sudbury
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to healthy-planet-action...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/056101dd0ecd%240fab9310%242f02b930%24%40EndorphinSoftware.co.uk.
Clive Elsworth
Peter
Thanks for the correction. They should have checked their own internal consistency.
However, it’s still a bleak picture globally: https://share.gemini.google/TJmeQEiGSzUT
Final points from Gemini link above:
Extrapolating the Future Trajectory
Extrapolating these moving pieces points toward a slow, asymmetric tapering rather than a rapid collapse:
· The Power vs. Industry Split: Roughly two-thirds of global coal goes into generating electricity, which is the easiest segment to replace with clean energy. The harder challenge lies in heavy industrial applications—like blast-furnace steelmaking in India or chemical manufacturing in China—which will anchor a baseline of global demand for years to come.
· The Forecast: Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global demand will hover around its current peak before entering a very gradual decline, tracking toward a modest 3% reduction by 2030.
Ultimately, coal is no longer an expansion story; it has become an Asian industrial infrastructure story.
Clive
Dr Tom Harris
The article points out the merits of rotating inertia in the grid and wrongly blames the Iberian black out on the scale of renewables. This was a myth put out by the traditional fuel advocates at the time but was dismissed by the Spanish authorities. It was the wide temperature gradient across the country, not the presence of renewables that caused the black out.
Makes me wonder what other myths and disinformation is hidden within the text.
Tom
Dr Tom Harris
Ross-on-Wye UK
Born at 318 ppm CO2 - 26% less than today
HPAC Member
https://drtomharris.substack.com
Any views or opinions expressed in this email are entirely my own and do not represent the views of my previous clients including InnovateUK or any projects I was involved in professionally.
rob...@rtulip.net
The 2025 slowdown in China’s coal use was just a blip. See this article.
China's coal power on the rise again in 2026, reversing first-in-a-decade decline
June 24, 2026
Summary
- Coal-fired power generation seen rising by 1.5-2% this year
- Power sector coal consumption forecast to increase 3%
- El Nino to boost air conditioning, potentially cut hydropower
- China's power demand to grow by 5% again this year
BEIJING, June 24 (Reuters) - China's coal-fired power generation is set to rebound this year from its first fall in a decade, analysts said, due to the impact of El Nino and the Iran war and as renewable sources of energy have failed to keep pace with demand.
From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of DrPete Sudbury
Sent: Wednesday, 8 July 2026 11:34 PM
To: Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
Cc: healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Coal - sobering reading
Except China isn't "combusting ever more coal".