Hi Gary,
Great post — the contest just wrapped and the propagation story from this weekend turned out to be pretty interesting.
I've been running a side project analyzing HF propagation using PSK Reporter, RBN, WSPR, and contest log data.
Full disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, physicist, or mathematician by any stretch — I'm a principal engineer in the cloud hyperscaler space focused on performance engineering, data, and QA, plus a ham operator for 30+ years. But the data paints a pretty clear story from the weekend.
We captured 69 million PSK Reporter spots during the ARRL DX SSB window as a propagation proxy (same bands open, different modality). The headline: a geomagnetic storm developed mid-contest. Kp rose from 1.0 Saturday morning to 4.67 by Sunday afternoon — a natural before/after experiment.
What the data appears to show:
- 20m carried the contest both days with SFI at 135+
- 15m and 10m openings shortened on Day 2 as Kp climbed — high bands felt it
- 40m and 80m were largely unaffected — low bands shrugged off the disturbance
- Higher SFI this weekend (135 vs 110 during the CW weekend) gave better high-band conditions before the storm arrived
Ham-Stats-
https://ham-stats.com/contests/arrl-dx-cw-2026/-
https://ham-stats.com/contests/arrl-dx-ssb-2026/The full analysis is in a Jupyter notebook with all the charts ( the earlier CW contest also available ):
- Notebook:
https://github.com/IONIS-AI/ionis-jupyter/blob/main/notebooks/contest-arrl-dx-ssb-2026.ipynb- Dataset (SQLite):
https://sourceforge.net/projects/ionis-ai/files/contests/arrl-dx-ssb-2026.sqliteWe did the same for the CW weekend (Feb 21–22), where SSN dropped to zero during a G1 storm while SFI held at 110 — interesting decoupling.
All of this runs on a self-hosted home lab — a Threadripper 9975WX with ClickHouse ingesting 14.68 billion propagation observations (263 GiB on disk), a Mac Studio M3 Ultra for model training, and 10 Gbps DAC links between them. No cloud, no subscriptions — sovereign infrastructure for citizen science. More details on the lab and the IONIS project here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/greg-beam-179b233_sovereign-infrastructure-for-citizen-science-activity-7433050647903752192-hbGmThe goal is a reproducible propagation recap for every major contest weekend ( 2026 - maybe beyond ). The underlying datasets are all public on SourceForge. Always looking for feedback on what would be useful to the HamSCI community.
73 de Greg, KI7MT