2024 Poll Outcome: A Tentative Account

[Sukla Sen]

Sukla Sen

1 June at 17:00  · 

Shared with Public

A bit of crystal gazing at my end.

This is what I had noted on April 6th (ref.: <https://groups.google.com/.../c/qjnZc6x1-5A/m/vQCTjrIDAQAJ>):

<<In 2014, the BJP had polled 31% of polled votes.

While this was pretty much slated to come down in 2019, it actually went up to 37% -- under the impact of Pulwama-Balakot.

This time, as yet, we had Ram Mandir: Modi has provided (homeless) Lord Ram an appropriate shelter.

Then bursts forth the Electoral Bonds.

Of course, the narratives of Vikash vs. Vinash form the larger backdrop.

As compared to 2019, (i) the poison of Hindutva -- with a proactive state machinery at its service -- has spread wider and deeper and (ii) the "field" has turned significantly more tilted -- via the blatant weaponisation of ED, IT, CBI, ECI and also the mainstream media and the Courts largely going with the regime.>>

One significant "event" has taken place since then.

The Prajjwal Revanna scandal that just exploded in April end.

The mainstream media has done its utmost to minimise the effects and reasons are hardly too effective vis-a--vis unreasoned fanaticism.

Nevertheless there must have been some impact at least.

Even if Modi has done all that he could do -- leveraging his position of power and privilege -- to infuse poison of the most lethal sort and polarise, there's no Balakot this time. Not even any Anna Hazare or Baba Ramdev batting for him.

On the flip side we have free ration consisting of 5 kgs of food grains per month for eighty(?) crore "poor", many constructed toilets (particularly important for rural women as it saves one the worrisome bother of going to the field after darkness) and also houses under the PMAY scheme.

This time there is also an entirely new and disturbing development that has taken place: the voting figures, as reported by the ECI, went up significantly in multiple instalments with the EC, for more than five weeks, stubbornly refusing to share the absolute number of votes cast in glaring contravention of a long-honoured past practice in this regard. Its actual reasons and, even more importantly, implications are as yet unknown_l.

To cut it short, in 2019, BJP had won 303 seats and in 2014, 282 seats.

Given the obtaining tapestry of underlying factors, which also include a considerably rejuvenated Congress with youthful Rahul Gandhi, presenting a very friendly and affable face, peddling 5 Nyays and 25 Guarantees in right earnest, at its head and higher opposition unity index than in '14 and '19 and also the MSM -- the electronic In particular -- turning pretty more grossly partisan, there should be no question whatever of repeating, let alone surpassing, 303. Not even 282.

*Between 200 and 250 should be the most likely envelope for the BJP and between 100 and 150 for the Congress.*

However, actual results may very well throw up some (even big?) surprise -- either way.

Speculation is a pleasurable mental exercise.

But, what really matters is what comes up on June 4th and how all the stakeholders opt to respond to it.

GROUPS.GOOGLE.COM

The Shape of Things to Come
<https://www.facebook.com/share/p/FB642gjVKu1ybGXN/>.

That is what I had posted on June 1, before the release of the exit poll results.

It looks, I was slightly more optimistic than what I should have been. But, not much.
One may still find it relevant. 

The final results are yet to come.

But, the trend is clear.

India is not all too keen to anoint the "Laoda Ne Bhojyam" (ref.: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug5RIt4r5oc>) guy, who also happens to be the solitary one on this planet to have an academic degree in Entire Political Science (ref.: <https://images.app.goo.gl/XRjCS1VrF89p7Utp7>) -- a veritable amalgam of (i) Putin, (ii) Rasputin and our very own (iii) Natwarlal -- as the Prime Minister for the third term.

That, however, will not deter this guy from leaving no proverbial stone unturned.
And, given the configuration, he won't even have to try too hard. But, doubtlessly, the 56" has shrunk.

Given the hugely tilted nature of the "field" with the ECI -- the ostensible umpire -- playing on the side of the party in power and the Supreme Court refusing to move its little finger, this was, in effect, actually a "rigged" election. But, definitely, not the way the habitual EVM-baiters would like us to believe.

Yet, in two major states, viz. Tamil Nadu and Punjab, the BJP failed to open its account. Has suffered a surprising and humiliating drubbing in the most populous state of UP. On the flip side, it is out to sweep Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal. Nearly so Chhattisgarh. Has done surprisingly well in Odisha, Telangana and, to an extent, Karnataka. Is out to open an account in Kerala by putting up a popular movie star.

In sum, this contest has thrown up a hero and that is, no doubt, Rahul Gandhi. His valiant and imaginative strides could convert a would-be walkover into a serious contest. But, even harder tests lie ahead. Modi, back in power, would only further intensify his drive to make India a truly "Opposition-Mukt Democracy", a la Putin.
So, it remains to be seen whether this Gandhi, spearheading organised resistance, can emerge a victorious hero like his way more illustrious namesake or is destined to become only a tragic hero or just an aberrant footnote in a tragic history.

Status at 16:45 hrs.*

Bharatiya Janata Party - BJP	19	225	244
Indian National Congress - INC	4	93	97
Janata Dal (Secular) - JD(S)	2	0	2
Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackrey) - SHSUBT	1	8	9
Aam Aadmi Party - AAAP	1	2	3
Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) - HAMS	1	0	1
Samajwadi Party - SP	0	34	34
All India Trinamool Congress - AITC	0	29	29
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - DMK	0	22	22
Telugu Desam - TDP	0	16	16
Janata Dal (United) - JD(U)	0	14	14
Shiv Sena - SHS	0	7	7
Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar - NCPSP	0	7	7
Lok Janshakti Party(Ram Vilas) - LJPRV	0	5	5
Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party - YSRCP	0	4	4
Rashtriya Janata Dal - RJD	0	4	4
Communist Party of India (Marxist) - CPI(M)	0	4	4
Indian Union Muslim League - IUML	0	3	3
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha - JMM	0	3	3
Janasena Party - JnP	0	2	2
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) - CPI(ML)(L)	0	2	2
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi - VCK	0	2	2
Communist Party of India - CPI	0	2	2
Rashtriya Lok Dal - RLD	0	2	2
Jammu & Kashmir National Conference - JKN	0	2	2
United People’s Party, Liberal - UPPL	0	1	1
Asom Gana Parishad - AGP	0	1	1
Kerala Congress - KEC	0	1	1
Revolutionary Socialist Party - RSP	0	1	1
Nationalist Congress Party - NCP	0	1	1
Voice of the People Party - VOTPP	0	1	1
Zoram People’s Movement - ZPM	0	1	1
Biju Janata Dal - BJD	0	1	1
Shiromani Akali Dal - SAD	0	1	1
Rashtriya Loktantrik Party - RLTP	0	1	1
Bharat Adivasi Party - BHRTADVSIP	0	1	1
Sikkim Krantikari Morcha - SKM	0	1	1
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - MDMK	0	1	1
Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) - ASPKR	0	1	1
Apna Dal (Soneylal) - ADAL	0	1	1
AJSU Party - AJSUP	0	1	1
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen - AIMIM	0	1	1
Independent - IND	0	6	6
Total	28	515	543

The status has, in the meanwhile, marginally changed. BJP: 240 and Congress: 98.
In terms of vote share, Cong: 22% and BJP: 37% (same as on the previous occasion).

Sukla

[sukl...@gmail.com]

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