'Lok Sabha elections: At 67.1%, 2019 turnout’s a record, Election Commission says': Likely Implications
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Sukla Sen
May 21, 2019, 4:27:49 AM5/21/19
to foil-l
[Considering the provisional figure of 67.11% of polling this time, it's a rise of 0.71% points over the preceding poll in 2014 (66.40%, as reported by the wiki).
2014 itself had seen a jump of a rather phenomenal 8.50% points: 66.40% - 57.90% (as reported by the wiki).
The outcome was that since 1984, for the first time, a single party did win absolute majority, even if it had fought the poll in alliance with a few others and its vote share of 31.34% was the lowest ever for a party winning absolute majority.
The fact that the voting %age has further gone up, even if only marginally, would tend to indicate a wave, given the phenomenal jump in the preceding poll.
The only plausible candidates available to cause a wave are Pulwama/Balakot and anti-minority prejudices/anger.
The Nyaya, in any case, meant for the bottom-most 20% of the populace, most difficult to be accessed, is hardly a competitor.
The other likely candidate could be strong disaffection with the present dispensation - the hoax of "Acche Din".
But, that'd have, normally, had brought the polling percentage down, not pushed it up.
Btw, exit polls, almost unfailingly, miss the magnitude of a large swing.
But, all these are, admittedly, speculations.
One'll have to wait for the 23rd, just two days away.
<<Voter turnouts have fluctuated over the past 16 Lok Sabha elections, the lowest being in first election held in 1951 with 45.67% voter participation. Thereafter turnouts were 47.74% in 1957, 55.42% in 1962, 61.33% in 1967 (the first elections when Indira Gandhi led Congress), 55.29% in 1971, 60.49% in 1977, 56.92% in 1980, 64.01% in 1984-85 (held in the wake of assassination of Indira Gandhi), 61.95% in 1989 (when National Front won under V P Singh), 55.88% in 1991-92 (during which Congress president Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated), 57.94% in 1996, 61.97% in 1998, 59.99% in 1999, 57.98% in 2004, 58.19% in 2009 and 66.44% in 2014.>>]
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/at-67-1-2019-turnouts-a-record-election-commission/articleshow/69419715.cms
Lok Sabha elections: At 67.1%, 2019 turnout’s a record, Election Commission says
Bharti Jain | TNN | Updated: May 21, 2019
Snipped
-- 2014 itself had seen a jump of a rather phenomenal 8.50% points: 66.40% - 57.90% (as reported by the wiki).
The outcome was that since 1984, for the first time, a single party did win absolute majority, even if it had fought the poll in alliance with a few others and its vote share of 31.34% was the lowest ever for a party winning absolute majority.
The fact that the voting %age has further gone up, even if only marginally, would tend to indicate a wave, given the phenomenal jump in the preceding poll.
The only plausible candidates available to cause a wave are Pulwama/Balakot and anti-minority prejudices/anger.
The Nyaya, in any case, meant for the bottom-most 20% of the populace, most difficult to be accessed, is hardly a competitor.
The other likely candidate could be strong disaffection with the present dispensation - the hoax of "Acche Din".
But, that'd have, normally, had brought the polling percentage down, not pushed it up.
Btw, exit polls, almost unfailingly, miss the magnitude of a large swing.
But, all these are, admittedly, speculations.
One'll have to wait for the 23rd, just two days away.
<<Voter turnouts have fluctuated over the past 16 Lok Sabha elections, the lowest being in first election held in 1951 with 45.67% voter participation. Thereafter turnouts were 47.74% in 1957, 55.42% in 1962, 61.33% in 1967 (the first elections when Indira Gandhi led Congress), 55.29% in 1971, 60.49% in 1977, 56.92% in 1980, 64.01% in 1984-85 (held in the wake of assassination of Indira Gandhi), 61.95% in 1989 (when National Front won under V P Singh), 55.88% in 1991-92 (during which Congress president Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated), 57.94% in 1996, 61.97% in 1998, 59.99% in 1999, 57.98% in 2004, 58.19% in 2009 and 66.44% in 2014.>>]
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/at-67-1-2019-turnouts-a-record-election-commission/articleshow/69419715.cms
Lok Sabha elections: At 67.1%, 2019 turnout’s a record, Election Commission says
Bharti Jain | TNN | Updated: May 21, 2019
Snipped
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